Politics at Westminster | BREAKING: UKIP

No, what you said was dare Miliband go toe-to-toe with Cameron on the NHS. My retort is he can't wait.keogh exonerated Labour's record on the NHS. Cameron even said the report shoukd be seen as nonpartisan. If the Tories think they can dog whistle and smear the NHS, good luck to them.

Anyway, i think i made a long and detailed prediction, outlining where i think the Tories will fail and actually being quite critical of Labour. I also think i was quite comprehensive in predicting the Tories would fall regardless of what Labour done. A withering rebuke of Miliband you must agree.

So let's have it from both you and the other politicos on this thread. Less than two years out, before the real work begins and polls squeeze. What is your prediction? Can i have 2 or 3 detailed paragraphs. I will save them all.
 
As for the toe-to-toe line, well i suppose the NHS debate potentially falls into the pyrrhic victory category for me [Miliband and Cameron both].

I'm fine with doing making a prediction at some point although with conference season looming and the importance of how the economy closes out the year, now might be a tad premature.

Additionally i am interested to see if Cameron receives any criticism from Tory backbenchers over the Gibraltar situation the longer it continues, his approach to Syria had already demonstrated a weakness foreign policy in recent times.,
 
Finding it harder and harder to defend Ed , he just does not have what it takes to put his message across , whatever that is.
 
Should Cameron recall parliament if he intends to launch an attack against Syria? Or of that is not practicable should it be reconvened the day afterwards?

With the pace of events being what they are it would not appear that MPs will return from their summer recess in time.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Should Cameron recall parliament if he intends to launch an attack against Syria? Or of that is not practicable should it be reconvened the day afterwards?

With the pace of events being what they are it would not appear that MPs will return from their summer recess in time.
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Recalled for Thursday to discuss UK response
 
I see.

A revealing interview with Cameron just now, in which he so far as i could gather refused to view the upcoming parliamentary vote as binding.That in itself shows how uncertain he is of even his own party's support on the matter.
 
Recalling Parliament tomorrow is a joke anyway. It is just a charade.

The orders have already been given to attack. It's as democratic as Blair and Iraq.
 
Judging by the opinion of the MPs currently speaking on five live, there's no way Cameron will get a yes tomorrow. There are just too many good arguments already presented which raise serious questions reg. military action. Such as who the fck will rule Syria after Assad? Does Cameron actually have one single intelligent thought on this, or does he simply not give a shit?
 
bsc said:
Recalling Parliament tomorrow is a joke anyway. It is just a charade.

The orders have already been given to attack. It's as democratic as Blair and Iraq.
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I don't think Cameron would have the cajones (or be stupid enough) to defy the will of Parliament on this matter - it would be unthinkable.

Thursday's debate will be unmissable viewing.
 
rednev said:
I don't think Cameron would have the cajones (or be stupid enough) to defy the will of Parliament on this matter - it would be unthinkable.

Thursday's debate will be unmissable viewing.
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I cant imagine any circumstances they wont want to attack. And i cant envisage any way parliament will vote for it.

It is a mess. And as you rightly say, unmissable.
 
If Miliband chooses to side with Cameron in a vote next week what scale of revolt can he expect from within the Labour party do you think? Might there even be resignations as is speculated for PPSs on the government side?
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
If Miliband chooses to side with Cameron in a vote next week what scale of revolt can he expect from within the Labour party do you think? Might there even be resignations as is speculated for PPSs on the government side?
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I'd like to think that he's not so incompetent that he would do something that causes a revolt within his party before he even gets to have general election.
 
Stunning victory for Miliband tonight. First puts Cameron on backfoot, then rolls him over.

After a summer of being called weak by Tory spinners, remarkable how it can flip so soon.
 
bsc said:
Stunning victory for Miliband tonight. First puts Cameron on backfoot, then rolls him over.

After a summer of being called weak by Tory spinners, remarkable how it can flip so soon.
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I think to describe this as a 'stunning victory' for Miliband, Labour's amendment would need to have been carried.

I don't think this is one for party point scoring anyway. Neither party is united on this issue, something I think is actually quite reassuring given how complex it is. My hope is that the debates may actually take place meaninfully with the chance that individuals could change their vote based on the arguments presented.

There's a huge reluctance to be involved given the context of the past 10 years, on both sides of the House. I think tonight was representative of that rather than Cameron vs. Miliband.
 
I read this is the first government defeat on foreign policy since the Crimean war.

This is a hammerblow to Cameron. Gove was going mental in the lobby according to hacks.
 
I would call it a stunning own goal from Cameron, you don't call for a vote like that unless you've run the numbers and can be confident of victory.

Labour have used the situation well although their leadership were no more in line with public opinion than the government, if this was a principled act then Miliband's opposition would have been clear for all to see days ago.
 
Scrumpet said:
Apparently 2 Conservative ministers accidentally missed the vote.
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Possibly, although Ministers 'accidentally' missing the vote is sometimes a case of them planning to vote against but opting to no-show in order to avoid an issue of undermining the centre/whips.
 
bsc said:
I read this is the first government defeat on foreign policy since the Crimean war.

This is a hammerblow to Cameron. Gove was going mental in the lobby according to hacks.
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Had the Commons been privy to more information we should have seen one ten years back too, a good stat though.
 
bsc said:
Stunning victory for Miliband tonight. First puts Cameron on backfoot, then rolls him over.

After a summer of being called weak by Tory spinners, remarkable how it can flip so soon.
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Did he actually do anything to be proud of?

Political point scoring over something as important as Syria is absurd If he had this opinion from the start he should have stuck to it.

Populist Labour.
 
Quite discomforting that the bulk of reaction seems to be on what this means for Cameron and Miliband and not Syria.

Today was a rare occasion when, as we often complain they don't, the majority of MPs seriously debated, reviewed evidence and voted with what they thought was the right course of action. And yet rather than this being viewed positively and the next steps in this crisis outlined, this has morphed into a domestic issue of party politics.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
I would call it a stunning own goal from Cameron, you don't call for a vote like that unless you've run the numbers and can be confident of victory.

Labour have used the situation well although their leadership were no more in line with public opinion than the government, if this was a principled act then Miliband's opposition would have been clear for all to see days ago.
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Yeah could be seen as that too, possibly. As Galloway said today, only ten percent of Telegraph voters wanted it. All Miliband had to do was fall behind public opinion. Play it cool. Mental the Tories expected them to simply fall behind given how raw the Iraq war is in their psyche. Lazy thinking.
 
Labour did earlier this evening suffer a resignation from the shadow cabinet over this i am just reading.

A Syrian opposition activist on the radio shaming those Labour MPs who called for Cameron to resign, saying that their political point scoring belittles the serious issue at the heart of the matter.


ETA: Oh, just seen AR's post.
 
Agent Red said:
Quite discomforting that the bulk of reaction seems to be on what this means for Cameron and Miliband and not Syria.

Today was a rare occasion when, as we often complain they don't, the majority of MPs seriously debated, reviewed evidence and voted with what they thought was the right course of action. And yet rather than this being viewed positively and the next steps in this crisis outlined, this has morphed into a domestic issue of party politics.
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It is the best thing could have happened Syria. This would have been a mission creep and would have been disastrous with many more innocents killed. Tim Stanley blogged there saying this is a victory for our democracy and Douglas Carswell tweeted a similar remark. Hopefully the focus is now on humitarian work and getting money and supplies to the needy rather than blasting a country we have nothing to do with tomahawks. Use those millions on aid.
 
rcoobc said:
Did he actually do anything to be proud of?

Political point scoring over something as important as Syria is absurd If he had this opinion from the start he should have stuck to it.

Populist Labour.
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You have to hand it to him, though. Maybe not morally, but politically. He played a blinder - what a night for him.
 
bsc said:
It is the best thing could have happened Syria. This would have been a mission creep and would have been disastrous with many more innocents killed. Tim Stanley blogged there saying this is a victory for our democracy and Douglas Carswell tweeted a similar remark. Hopefully the focus is now on humitarian work and getting money and supplies to the needy rather than blasting a country we have nothing to do with tomahawks. Use those millions on aid.
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I don't disagree with that at all. With the evidence currently to hand I am not in favour of military action. What makes me uncomfortable is that people aren't using tonight's vote to outline why that decision was made, why in fact it may be have been the right call and what the next steps are (as clearly we still condemn the use of chemical weapons and this isn't just case closed, it just means military action by British forces won't be the path taken). Instead they are using this to make points about the power of the respective leaders and coverage is focusing on how the two have 'played' the situation. Just feels inappropriate to me and disappointing given that both leaders themselves took time to reference the mutual feelings of concern and abhorrence felt by both sides of the House today with regards to the crisis.
 
bsc said:
Yeah could be seen as that too, possibly. As Galloway said today, only ten percent of Telegraph voters wanted it. All Miliband had to do was fall behind public opinion. Play it cool. Mental the Tories expected them to simply fall behind given how raw the Iraq war is in their psyche. Lazy thinking.
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I voted in one of those polls, and yes it wasn't close at all.

John Pienaar described Ed as having "wobbled into a strong position", quite an apt description that.

The whips must have informed Cameron of his likely strength in the Commons a day or two prior and yet he still have that fairly vague albeit passionate speech today. Since the start of the conflict there has been more bombast than strategy to the policy on Syria.
 
rcoobc said:
Did he actually do anything to be proud of?

Political point scoring over something as important as Syria is absurd If he had this opinion from the start he should have stuck to it.

Populist Labour.
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Bout bloody time they got in front regarding a big issue in the public's eyes. They'll take this Populist Labour anyday of the week given that summer they had.
 
I don't think this is really the kind of thing that will swing an election in Miliband's favour. It's probably a good day for democracy, but not for the world of politics.
 
Maybe not. It`s the kind of thing lost Chamberlain his Premiership though. Cameron's the best asset they've had in years. Mr Brady could be busy adding to those envelopes in safe tomorrow.
 
alastair said:
I don't think this is really the kind of thing that will swing an election in Miliband's favour. It's probably a good day for democracy, but not for the world of politics.
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I would've thought a good day for democracy was a good day for politics.

This will not affect the mission in the slightest so for world politics it is irrelevant.

Might bring french fries back on the menu though in good ol' USofA
 
Would anyone here describe Cameron, Clegg, Miliband and Obama [or Romney the last Republican challenger] as strong on foreign policy?

When it comes to their actions are they not in general reactionary political figures?
 
DFreshKing said:
I would've thought a good day for democracy was a good day for politics.

This will not affect the mission in the slightest so for world politics it is irrelevant.

Might bring french fries back on the menu though in good ol' USofA
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I was trying to say that I don't think either party has come out particularly well from this. Labour would have done better but they've turned it into point scoring which is sad to see.
 
alastair said:
I was trying to say that I don't think either party has come out particularly well from this. Labour would have done better but they've turned it into point scoring which is sad to see.
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Did you read the Tory attacks, day after day all summer, on Miliband as weak and not in control of policy. It was a direct order from cchq high command. Relentless and very personal in some aspects. If you seriously can't see this as a cathartic moment for Miliband and something that completely turns the weak jibes and political pressure flow in the opposite directiin then, you sir, are either mentally insane or partisan beyond belief.

Can't wait to see if they still continue to attack Miliband as weak after this. It was always a futile jibe anyway given how he ran against his brother. If he really did give assurances he'd back Cameron, then backed out hours before - as alleged by Dan Hodges - then underestimating how ruthless he can be won't happen again.
 
There'll always be point-scoring. I recall a debate in which one MP stood up and called for all parties to show unity; he then proceeded to laud his own party's objectivity, and ended with the words "...unlike that party over there!" :wenger:
 
DFreshKing said:
I would've thought a good day for democracy was a good day for politics.

This will not affect the mission in the slightest so for world politics it is irrelevant.

Might bring french fries back on the menu though in good ol' USofA
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The mission has been significantly weakened diplomatically which will have implications for how it is carried out. France has said it prefers to wait for further UN investigation and there has been no progress in the Security Council. Unless Obama decides to act unilaterally over the next couple of days, the calls for military action across the West might dampen as it has in the UK. And if Obama does decide to take unilateral action, it probably will just be a case of saving face over his 'red line' remark.

Assad will no doubt be relieved to some extent at tonight's vote in Parliament.
 
bsc said:
Did you read the Tory attacks, day after day all summer, on Miliband as weak and not in control of policy. It was a direct order from cchq high command. Relentless and very personal in some aspects. If you seriously can't see this as a cathartic moment for Miliband and something that completely turns the weak jibes and political pressure flow in the opposite directiin then, you sir, are either mentally insane or partisan beyond belief.

Can't wait to see if they still continue to attack Miliband as weak after this. It was always a futile jibe anyway given how he ran against his brother. If he really did give assurances he'd back Cameron, then backed out hours before - as alleged by Dan Hodges - then underestimating how ruthless he can be won't happen again.
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The thing is - you can point score on domestic policy all you want, but when it comes to the Syrian crisis, you end up looking a bit pathetic.

Miliband is still weak. He's one of the worst leaders you lot have ever had. This will die down very quickly indeed, I would imagine, rightly or wrongly.
 
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