Politics at Westminster | BREAKING: UKIP

I remember Rednev, on this very forum, speaking from a left-wing perspective, asking the question of why the left refuse to accept, despite all the evidence, that immigration has caused a depression in wages.

I would ask it again here. Provide your evidence. And I don't want a Guardian flowchart.
Read the studies for yourself:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=effects+of+immigration+on+wages+and+employment

Conclusions are largely that there's a slight reduction in the bottom 10-20% of earners, a slight increase in the rest, and a slight increase overall.
 
The point I am trying to make is that UKIP are making some exaggerated points about immigration. They like to say things like 29m Romanians and Bulgarians could come to this country. Obviously, nowhere near that many will, but technically, they're correct.
The elephant in the room here is clearly the Labour party's failings. That's the anger. Everyone likes to blame UKIP for stirring up hate but it's Labour what did it.

:lol: Genius

That could easily be a line from The Brass Eye
 
That's a given. I love immigration. It's benefitted me hugely.

But then I'm middle class. I don't compete with immigrants for jobs. I don't have kids to worry about.


Does immigration create greater unemployment or greater inactivity among existing workers? The first systematic study of this issue used data for 1983-2000 to analyse how changes in the share of migrants impact on employment, labour market participation and unemployment of existing workers (Dustmann, Fabbri and Preston 2005). It concluded that immigration had no statistically significant effect on the overall employment outcomes of UK-born workers.

A separate study carried out by researchers at the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) analysed the impact of labour immigration of A8 workers on claimant unemployment during May 2004-November 2005 (Lemos and Portes 2008). The study found little evidence of an adverse effect.

Two recent studies have provided additional insights on the impact of immigration on employment in the UK using a time period which includes the latest recession. Lucchino, Rosazza-Bondibene and Portes (2012) used National Insurance Number (NINO) registrations data from 2002 to 2011 to explore the impact of immigration on claimant count rates (i.e. a proxy for unemployment) in 379 local authorities in England. The results suggest that there is no impact of immigration on the claimant count rate. This result holds even during periods of low economic growth or recession.
 

“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov
 
However immigration at the unofficial levels we are seeing and the reaction to it from all sides is the danger.

This is a fair thing to be concerned about. I don't think UKIP are the answer on it mind you since quite a few of their members employ "illegal aliens"
 
I can't possibly reply to everyone but you have to ask the question of why so many people are voting for them. It's clearly something a lot of people are concerned about.

Wages of the lowest in society are falling. Wages of those higher up is rising. This is not what we aspire to, and pretending that's not got anything to do with immigration is problematic.

Just look at the real world. They got 47% of the council in Rotherham. That's as Labour an area as it gets.
 
I can't possibly reply to everyone but you have to ask the question of why so many people are voting for them. It's clearly something a lot of people are concerned about.

Misinformation and lack of statistical literacy and critical thinking (things which should have a much higher emphasis in schools).
 
This is a fair thing to be concerned about. I don't think UKIP are the answer on it mind you since quite a few of their members employ "illegal aliens"

Indeed.

I could tell some stories of the places I work and how much illegal immigration benefits all the parties. Ukip are nowhere near the answer, but I do understand why people are voting them. Well normal people and not the obvious morons that do.

Perhaps if the rival parties actually looked at the underlying cause they could stop it. But I think we all know they won't want to.
 
No, it was something I researched quite a while ago, I simply provided you the link to easily google it. Did you read the studies? Let me answer for you, you didn't.

I've accepted, to an extent, your findings. The poorest are getting further and further away from the rest. Great. Just what we want to hear.
 
Misinformation and lack of statistical literacy and critical thinking (things which should have a much higher emphasis in schools).

Yes. Then that's for the ignorant voters. You still have to deal properly with those with legitimate reasons and concerns. I'd wager that percentage of the voters is higher than people want to believe.
 
I've accepted, to an extent, your findings. The poorest are getting further and further away from the rest. Great. Just what we want to hear.
Lack of strong unions, increased power of capital, non-progressive taxation... and yes, increased low-skill labour supply from immigration.
 
My problem is the immigration debate always gets turned into a left vs right issue, centered around pointless debates about "multiculturalism" and exchange of cultural values, along with the typical spin of immigrants "saving the NHS" or some other aspect of industry, or taking jobs "lazy brits" wouldn't take. Rather than a cold, hard factual debate centered on numbers, population rises, the strain on national services, affect on employment etc etc.

Whilst we are on the EU debate, we simply cannot control our borders. Cameron promised that immigration would drop below a 100,000, yet it remains above 200,000. I don't think any rational person would argue that immigration is the sole cause of the countries ills, likewise no rational person would refute the argument that immigration is not a contributing factor to the countries woes.
 
Yes. Then that's for the ignorant voters. You still have to deal properly with those with legitimate reasons and concerns. I'd wager that percentage of the voters is higher than people want to believe.


UKIP are not the answer to these real (albeit inflated) concerns though. Primarily because they'd be terrible at running a country, but more so because the solutions revolve around more robust labour laws to prevent employers forcing employees to work in conditions that UK-born workers were not used to working in. The reason immigration is allowed to bring down wages of the bottom 5% of earners (along with employees without O-levels) is because the laws allow employers to offer working conditions and pay that are quite acceptable for an immigrant to work in, relative to what they're used to, but much below what a UK worker would expect or submit to. Immigration is not the root cause of the problem, it's lax labour laws.
 
Non progressive taxation? How?
VAT at 20%
Indirect taxes such as alcohol duty
Low capital gains taxes
Low business taxes
High inheritance tax thresholds
No capital gains tax for first properties
 
If immigrants are essentially able to work for less than a British person, it's not a fair competition for jobs.

I hate this argument - I really do. I don't want an immigrant not to get a job. I just don't see how our current policy is fair on anyone.
 
If immigrants are essentially able to work for less than a British person, it's not a fair competition for jobs.

I hate this argument - I really do. I don't want an immigrant not to get a job. I just don't see how our current policy is fair on anyone.

You're exactly right, but we need to look at the reason why they're able to work for less. Obviously if there were no immigrants here the wouldn't be able to, but as we've already seen they're a net positive in the long term (plus clearly we aren't going to have 0% immigration). The issues around employment need fixing, that way an immigrant won't essentially be able to work for less.
 
You're exactly right, but we need to look at the reason why they're able to work for less. Obviously if there were no immigrants here the wouldn't be able to, but as we've already seen they're a net positive in the long term (plus clearly we aren't going to have 0% immigration). The issues around employment need fixing, that way an immigrant won't essentially be able to work for less.

A real enforcement of minimum wage would be a start.

I've always argued the number of immigrants is really besides the point - it's the unequal spread which causes the problem. I'm all in favour of controlled and well organised immigration because you've got to be an idiot not to see those benefits.
 
Is that not the same for any political party?

To an extent, you can't run for an election without playing to people's prejudices a little bit, they all do it. UKIP do nothing but, however. Their entire campaign is based around misinformation and exaggeration. I don't doubt there are a few people who've pragmatically sided with UKIP after weighing up all the options and decided they literally are the best solution. Nor do I doubt that a proportionally high group of their voters have no fecking idea what any of the problems are but they're voting for Farage because "he's not like the others" etc.
 
UKIP are not the answer to these real (albeit inflated) concerns though. Primarily because they'd be terrible at running a country, but more so because the solutions revolve around more robust labour laws to prevent employers forcing employees to work in conditions that UK-born workers were not used to working in. The reason immigration is allowed to bring down wages of the bottom 5% of earners (along with employees without O-levels) is because the laws allow employers to offer working conditions and pay that are quite acceptable for an immigrant to work in, relative to what they're used to, but much below what a UK worker would expect or submit to. Immigration is not the root cause of the problem, it's lax labour laws.

Ukip most certainly are not the answer. But when the questions aren't being listened to, what are frustrated people going to do?

And illegal immigration is by far the biggest problem, and it's bigger than most want to say mainly because the ones to deal with it benefit from it.

And for the record I employ people from all nations as and when I need them. My problem is I do it legally and pay fairly. So this issue affects me greatly and the frustrating thing is when you are trying to voice real concerns and get thrown facts and figures at you that are blatantly missing the point. It's also very worrying, as it leads to the very issue we are discussing here.

Why the hell people vote ukip.
 
A real enforcement of minimum wage would be a start.

I've always argued the number of immigrants is really besides the point - it's the unequal spread which causes the problem. I'm all in favour of controlled and well organised immigration because you've got to be an idiot not to see those benefits.

Well I agree with all those points to be honest, but none of them couple with the "immigration crisis" we were apparently facing a few posts ago. I'm always in favour of improvement and well organised immigration is an obvious improvement. That does in no way mean we currently have a crisis on our hands though.
 
To an extent, you can't run for an election without playing to people's prejudices a little bit, they all do it. UKIP do nothing but, however. Their entire campaign is based around misinformation and exaggeration. I don't doubt there are a few people who've pragmatically sided with UKIP after weighing up all the options and decided they literally are the best solution. Nor do I doubt that a proportionally high group of their voters have no fecking idea what any of the problems are but they're voting for Farage because "he's not like the others" etc.

I'd agree with that but I'm worried about patronising their voters.

We've got a massive issue in general with people not having the slightest amount of knowledge about politics because it isn't taught in school. I'd like to know what percentage of people know the difference between a two-tier, unitary and hybrid council, for example.
 
I've accepted, to an extent, your findings. The poorest are getting further and further away from the rest. Great. Just what we want to hear.
Well for starters, the impact is slight. For enders, there are a huge number of things that affect income disparity, and the ideology you seem to support (regressive taxing, laissez faire, deregulation etc.) has much more of a negative impact on it than immigration.
 
Well I agree with all those points to be honest, but none of them couple with the "immigration crisis" we were apparently facing a few posts ago. I'm always in favour of improvement and well organised immigration is an obvious improvement. That does in no way mean we currently have a crisis on our hands though.

It's an immigration crisis because we have literally no plan to resolve these issues and it's only going to get worse. We have UKIP gaining votes left, right and centre, we have resentment towards immigrants increasing, and we've got the lowest paid getting poorer.
 
Well I agree with all those points to be honest, but none of them couple with the "immigration crisis" we were apparently facing a few posts ago. I'm always in favour of improvement and well organised immigration is an obvious improvement. That does in no way mean we currently have a crisis on our hands though.

We do in various areas though. Not a crisis in the way ukip want you to believe as if the country is literally going to explode, but we are experiencing bigger problems than people want to see.

I'm currently in a crisis right now thanks directly to illegal immigration. That's a very real thing to me and those I have working for me.
 
I'd agree with that but I'm worried about patronising their voters.

We've got a massive issue in general with people not having the slightest amount of knowledge about politics because it isn't taught in school. I'd like to know what percentage of people know the difference between a two-tier, unitary and hybrid council, for example.

You're missing the simplest point of all, people don't vote for the good of the country. They vote for what's best for them. You don't need a knowledge of politics to figure that out.
 
You're missing the simplest point of all, people don't vote for the good of the country. They vote for what's best for them. You don't need a knowledge of politics to figure that out.

Not everyone. Every election I don't vote Labour even though I'd directly benefit but you know, morals and that.
 
Pot. Kettle...

Hardly. Mine was a response to a statement, yours is some attempt at point scoring.

Immigration works both ways, I work in an industry full of immigration, which has links to a lot of the developing world which has shown how good our system can be.
 
You're missing the simplest point of all, people don't vote for the good of the country. They vote for what's best for them. You don't need a knowledge of politics to figure that out.
Plenty of people vote against their own interests, actually. Or at least against the norm for their social group. See: Working class tories. They believe they're just temporarily inconvenienced millionaires :lol: And most well off left wing voters are voting against their own interests for "the national interest", given that high taxes/whatever are bad for their personal wealth.