German Elections 2017

Incredible harsh way to look at Schäfer-Gümbel; after the Ypsilanti disaster in 2008 there was no way to achieve a good result in 2009 and he did a surprisingly good job of building the SPD up after that and was extremely unlucky not to end up as the minister in 2013. I can't recall many more impressive SPD results in the last decade than Hessen 2013 given the circumstances.


I got the feeling that Lafontaine hurt the party more than he helped them on a long term perspective. He was widely (and rightfully) regarded as a sore loser and like you said created a toxic environment. Wagenknecht is an important piece tho, she's an amazing debathe and with her countless appearances in talk shows etc she's pushing the publics presence in the media.

Oh, I like him. Still a sad state for them when they once had multiple prime ministers and people having pushing for becoming chancellor in the 90's.


Wagenknecht is also responsible for making her party unconsiderable for any coalitions.
 
The polls about him will be more interesting in 2 or 3 months. Right now he is the new one nobody really knows.

Funny about the AFD (or before the NPD) is that they are especially strong in areas in which barely a foreigner lives. Only 0.48 % of the inhabitants of Sachsen are muslims - all of East Germany has about the same percentage. Whereas there is e.g. 8% in North Rhine Westfalia.
Because they fear they could go there. They want to protect their little world.
 
For the first time in 6 years, the SPD surpassed CDU in a poll. I'm baffled. I know it's early days but I wouldn't have thought even that is possible.

How do you think media scrutiny will go with Schulz, does he have garbage potential?
 
:D It nicely explains why all of a sudden the noisy CSU brats (AKA Seehofer, Scheuer, Söder) have shut up to threaten the CSU might not support the candidacy of Angela Merkel but endorse her now.
 
Pretty remarkable considering a lot of the polls had them hovering around 20-22 just a couple of weeks back. You'd imagine they're getting a sort of immediate bounce from Schulz though, which may have helped them a fair bit. Sustaining their lead may be more difficult than gaining it. Still, though, definitely looks like it'll be a lot tougher for Merkel's party to remain the most popular by a comfortable distance.
 
How do you think media scrutiny will go with Schulz, does he have garbage potential?

As he quit school early and was heavily involved with the EU, there might be some potential at least in conservative circles.
First issue was already raised, although I think its unfair and he is a very intelligent person and actually has educated himself a lot over the past decades. He's fluent in 5 languages right now and learning two more.
 
As he quit school early and was heavily involved with the EU, there might be some potential at least in conservative circles.
First issue was already raised, although I think its unfair and he is a very intelligent person and actually has educated himself a lot over the past decades. He's fluent in 5 languages right now and learning two more.

It might also be a chance to reach the worker and middle class, which used to be the core support of the social democrats.

Schulz as self made politician is not really viewed by many people as part of the elite, which left the common people behind and lost touch to. This and the lack of baggage he brings into the electoral campaign are the biggest hopes for the SPD to bring people they lost since the Agenda 2010 back into the fold.

Fortunately for them, Schulz is a very good candidate for that. Especialy his manner of speaking gives him the tool to connect to the above mentioned people. Sure, he also uses phrases quite a lot, but most of his sentences are short, direct and not overly complicated, which gives him a clear message. If he on top of that picks up the right topics (which he does right now with the topic of the rift between rich and poor) he is the first real threat Merkel has faced since Schröder (who already fell out of favour with a lot of people back then).

I don´t think that this campaign will be primarily decided by policies as there are too many overlaps between both parties, but by the question who can deliver the messages better. As of right now in that regard I give Schulz the edge over Merkel.
 
English translation of Der SPIEGEL's recent interview with Martin Schulz:
http://www.spiegel.de/international...cellor-candidate-martin-schulz-a-1133475.html

Today's cover story of Der SPIEGEL Klimawandel (Climate Change) about Martin Schulz and Angela Merkel makes an entertaining read (in German).
Two interesting facts:
The SPD has welcomed 4,600 new members since Schulz has been announced as challenger of Merkel; in some regions, the party ran temporarily out of their (red) books of membership (Parteibücher).
Furthermore, it seems that the SPD has been favorably recognized by young voters who deem the EU favorably for some time but only recently, with the rise of Le Pen and Trump, the party begins to capitalize on it.

Again the opinion poll of Infratest dimap (for ARD Tagesthemen; interviews on January 30+31) is quoted:
  • If it were possible to vote for the chancellor directly, Schulz would get 50% (+9), Merkel 34 (-7).
  • The next government should be led by SPD 50% (+14), CDU 39% (-12).
 
English translation of Der SPIEGEL's recent interview with Martin Schulz:
http://www.spiegel.de/international...cellor-candidate-martin-schulz-a-1133475.html

Today's cover story of Der SPIEGEL Klimawandel (Climate Change) about Martin Schulz and Angela Merkel makes an entertaining read (in German).
Two interesting facts:
The SPD has welcomed 4,600 new members since Schulz has been announced as challenger of Merkel; in some regions, the party ran temporarily out of their (red) books of membership (Parteibücher).
Furthermore, it seems that the SPD has been favorably recognized by young voters who deem the EU favorably for some time but only recently, with the rise of Le Pen and Trump, the party begins to capitalize on it.

Again the opinion poll of Infratest dimap (for ARD Tagesthemen; interviews on January 30+31) is quoted:
  • If it were possible to vote for the chancellor directly, Schulz would get 50% (+9), Merkel 34 (-7).
  • The next government should be led by SPD 50% (+14), CDU 39% (-12).
I like him. He speaks with an "in-your-face" attitude, but without sounding populist.
 
I like him. He speaks with an "in-your-face" attitude, but without sounding populist.
He's pretty blunt. :D

A SPIEGEL journo, Markus Feldenkirchen, had followed Schulz for about a year prior to the last EU elections. He had also spoken to family, friends, political allies and 'enemies', current ones and from the past. His conclusions were mixed, with one exception: That Schulz' passion for the European Union as a body that ensures peace on this continent is 100% genuine. That's for me as a convinced European his biggest plus.
 
So if he wins, not much will change or be different, except the EU will get more love. I dont see that much of a difference between Merkel and Schulz.
 
So if he wins, not much will change or be different, except the EU will get more love. I dont see that much of a difference between Merkel and Schulz.
Don't think so. He's talking about some issues the SPD has completely forgotten in the last years: social justice, tax the rich and social housing.
 
So if he wins, not much will change or be different, except the EU will get more love. I dont see that much of a difference between Merkel and Schulz.

Both the SPD and CDU expirienced a drift towards the political center over the last 20 years (the SPD coming from left leaning, the CDU from right leaning), making the core policies of both parties fairly similar. One of the biggest arguments the AfD tries to use is exactly the point that it makes no difference which of the two large parties the people elect.

This election won´t be decided by policies but by personality.
 
Don't think so. He's talking about some issues the SPD has completely forgotten in the last years: social justice, tax the rich and social housing.

Talking about is one thing, and doing it is another. I am hugely skeptical something will change about social justice, good talk but rarely is their something done about it. Once elected, not much will change and his political decisions will be similar to Merkel. If you take the social justice out of the equation, whats left? Thats populism at its finest, winning voters with social justice talk that is hard to implement when he is a die hard EU bureaucrat.
 
Both the SPD and CDU expirienced a drift towards the political center over the last 20 years (the SPD coming from left leaning, the CDU from right leaning), making the core policies of both parties fairly similar. One of the biggest arguments the AfD tries to use is exactly the point that it makes no difference which of the two large parties the people elect.

This election won´t be decided by policies but by personality.

I agree on that.
 
Talking about is one thing, and doing it is another. I am hugely skeptical something will change about social justice, good talk but rarely is their something done about it. Once elected, not much will change and his political decisions will be similar to Merkel. If you take the social justice out of the equation, whats left? Thats populism at its finest, winning voters with social justice talk that is hard to implement when he is a die hard EU bureaucrat.
We only have to wait.
 
I think Der SPIEGEL got the gist right in their cover story yesterday. With his ambition to lead the next government and not excluding a R2G coalition, Schulz represents 'Merkel has to go' but without the nationalist / Neonazi attitude of the AfD and/or NPD.
 
Nice digs at Trump and similar minded politicians (without naming them) by the President of the German Parliament during the opening speech of today's election ceremony for the next German President. Standing ovations for some of his statements from almost everybody but the AfD.
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the candidate of CDU/CSU and SPD got an overwhelming majority in the 1st round.
Required votes: 631.
Actual votes: 931.
 
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I have only seen a small clip, but his speech was embarrassingly stupid until he said "noch schöner wäre es, wenn wir dieser Botschaft selbst auch gerecht werden" (=it would be nice if we'd live up to it as well), which saved it. Europe lecturing the USA on immigration or free trade is quite rich.


On a more substantial note. Earlier in this thread I argued, that there is little difference between most parties and I'd stand by that if the SPD had nominated Gabriel. A government run by Schulz and a government run by Merkel would be different in at least one area: European integration. Particularly in the Euro-zone. We all heard the argument that the monetary union needs to get completed by adding a fiscal union. While some things happened (e.g. banking union), Merkel was unwilling to go all the wayn. Schulz ideas are almost the same to what the European commission and many French politicians would love to do. If he gets elected, we'll see a major push for creating a strong fiscal union in the euro-zone.
 
So if he wins, not much will change or be different, except the EU will get more love. I dont see that much of a difference between Merkel and Schulz.
Don't forget it's not just about Schulz or the SPD itself compared to Merkel/CDU but also about the parties they want to form a coalition with. At least on paper R2G led by the SPD should be different to a CDU-SPD coalition.
 
Don't forget it's not just about Schulz or the SPD itself compared to Merkel/CDU but also about the parties they want to form a coalition with. At least on paper R2G led by the SPD should be different to a CDU-SPD coalition.

What would you prefer?
 
What would you prefer?
I'm not a big fan of any of the parties (or coalition) that will make it into parliament (am far to the left myself) but I'd prefer R2G if we only include the realistic possibilities. Just ridding the government of the CSU would probably be worth it on its own.
 
We should start listening to the people, Schultz said at a recent eu meeting.

Then went to Wallonia to tell them to fall into place.
 
Obviously just another early snapshot but pleased to see again that AfD numbers either stagnate or slightly drop.

24% undecided in that Forsa poll.

 
Another poll from another polling institute (Emnid) that has SPD slightly ahead of CDU/CSU.

Compared to last week's Emnid poll it is:
  • - 1% CDU/CSU
  • + 1% SPD
  • no change for Grüne (The Greens), FDP and Die Linke (The Left)
  • -1% AfD
  • + 1 other
 
promising more welfare payments is really bold. If he is really adventurous he'll also promise more public investment with the obligatory token pledge to help SMEs.
 
It's interesting which stories get covered by foreign media. This was / is almost a non-story in Gemany unless you're an avid BILD reader.
Well it's the telegraph...
 
Admittedly, I only read a Telegraph article occasionally and do therefore not know what else they cover. But I find it entertaining that they blow up a story that's close to not noticed by anyone in Germany, unless you read BILD or are Christian Schmidt, one of Germany's alltime most useless ministers.
I'm sure that among cabinet members, nobody knows about Hendricks' decision with exception of herself and Schmidt of course. But the Telegraph serves it as if Hendricks caused an uproar of the coalition parties because she introduces a totaliterian veggie regime to the whole country. :D
 
It is an online story from 3am, not a front page splash. Perhaps this failed to register with you at the time.
 
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It's more that the Telegraph fail to grasp what's newsworthy to report from Germany, and more importantly fail to understand or purposefully ignore the irrelevance and very limited impact of the decision taken by the minister.
 
First time since 2006 that this polling institute (Infratest dimap) found SPD in the lead over CDU/CSU.

Changes compared to last poll of Infratest dimap (ca. two weeks ago):
  • - 3% CDU/CSU
  • + 4% SPD
  • no change for Grüne (The Greens) and FDP
  • - 1% Die Linke (The Left)
  • - 1% AfD
  • + 1% other
 
ItsCombinedChart.html


talk about capital flight. We now have passed the peak of the financial crisis. About half of that is from Italy. Another big chunk from Spain. Listening to European politicians, Italy and Spain are on their way out of the crisis. Nothing to see here. Everything is fine. *lalala(and)*.

That said, the Germans wanted this and they can’t complain when they realize what just happened. I am almost at the point where I hope that Schulz wins the elections so he can go all-in with the Euro. At this point I’ll apply for citizenship in another country (preferable Switzerland).