Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
OK...Good list...Just checked again and it seems we don't have any of that stuff in our house or use those service providers.

Then again, the French do have a feeling that their own goods and services are the best ( yes, I know they aren't, but that's the French ) so we still have a full range of French grown or made products, or French labels stuck on Chinese made stuff, to choose from, and which are usually chepaer than their German equivalents.

I'm not sure if you are aware of which brands are German brands. For example, I'll be flabbergasted if you don't have some shampoo from Wella, washing up liquid from Henkel and washing powder from Persil somewhere in your house. It's almost impossible not to unless you consciously go out avoiding purchasing German owned or produced household items!
 
Let me look in my crystal ball...

I don't think recover is the right word, but I think things will never be the same.
Firstly, I think the U.K. will dissolve. I think the Scots will become independent and Ireland will unite. Then there's the question whether we remain in the single market or under what terms we will have access to it.
If we are no longer part of the single market then I predict a recession as consumer goods become more expensive (we're not suddenly going to stop buying German goods) and the economy shrinks. What's left of the U.K. will probably become a tax haven. But it will become less influential and accelerate our role as bit part players on the World stage. Meanwhile, the divisions in society will only widen as the gap between rich & poor widens. The notion that we will open up trade with the rest of the World to compensate not being part of the single market is pure fantasy. We still need to protect our economy and we don't have much we can export anyway.
Can't see that happening for an incredibly long time. We can't afford the North. Honestly I'm not sure the UK were able to either, as soon as you cross the border the infrastructure is diabolical in contrast to Ireland.

How could we possibly absolve a country where 40% of employment is in the public sector and where the GDP per capital is less than half of our own? It's pure romanticism.
 
Germany is top of most European countries that they import from and some by a large margin. The rest of Europe and a weak Euro is more important to Germany than the UK no matter how much we import from them.

Germany top export countries are US and France and France are far higher than the UK. UK is third to fourth tied with a tiny country called Holland. We're not the biggest or the second biggest and the rest of Europe far outstrip us. We're talking about 500bn to our 80-90bn leaving out France and Holland.

What could be more of a factor is UK leaning toward non german cars in the future and this having a knock on effect in the media between US and so on.

The U.K. Is still a massive massive market to Germany. It will in the interests of German manufacturers to have a good trade deal with Britain.
 
I'm not sure if you are aware of which brands are German brands. For example, I'll be flabbergasted if you don't have some shampoo from Wella, washing up liquid from Henkel and washing powder from Persil somewhere in your house. It's almost impossible not to unless you consciously go out avoiding purchasing German owned or produced household items!

Aren't a lot of them manufactured in the UK though? Are you saying that the supply chain is entirely dependent on the EU? If the price of these household goods go up to a prohibitive level then that creates opportunites for new markets from non-EU countries and even domestic based companies no?
 
Sample size of one. I'm convinced.

Good....Glad that I've been able to convince at least one of you.

But some other German stuff I'd forgotten about -

Half of the trains in the UK are owned by the German Government and nearly all London's famous red buses are owned by the German, French and Dutch governments.

And not to forget how much electricity generation in the UK is done by German companies.

Jeez....You guys are really, really fecked if Germany pull out of the UK or are priced out of the UK by tariffs.
 
The U.K. Is still a massive massive market to Germany. It will in the interests of German manufacturers to have a good trade deal with Britain.

They are also important for France. Funnily enough, the UK and France are great at the same things car and aeronautics parts(we can't build a car to save our lives though), we are and should be very close in that department because it's good for both of us, it's also two big countries that are naturally oriented to the sea and we should exploit that together. To be frank the situation bothers me, I don't understand why we try to compete when we should work together.
 
No...Germany exports billions-worth every week.

What I'm saying is that despite a shit FXRate and potential tariffs, your everyday household bill won't increase because of stuff you HAVE to buy from Germany, even though the UK is Germany's second largest export market and annual UK trade with Germany is about €15 billion negative in favour of Germany.

So on two counts ( German goods will perhaps become too expensive and none are really everday necessities anyway ) lack of free trade between the UK and Germany will hurt Germany for sure. I don't know what the UK exports to Germany, I was hoping you'd tell us so that we could make a judgement whether the sales will dip without a trade deal....That's all.

From the UK in our house ? Off the top of my head, some gin, some English wine, some HiFi equipment, probably some fish landed in the UK, and that's about it, really. The diesel in the cars might be from the North Sea, certainly not from Germany or France.

Since yesterday I have a problem accessing the data but will let you know as soon as I can.

But we're not talking about just Germany, we're talking the whole of the EU which as a whole is the most important trading partner of the UK.
Off the top of head I can remember some of the data. (Very good memory)
In 2014 the biggest single export (worldwide) of Germany was cars representing 12% of all exports value $153bn.
UK's second biggest export is also cars representing around 9.4% of all exports value $40bn.
Notice the vast difference in the values
Now the Uk is a big market for German cars - 15% of cars produced in Germany go to the UK - ie 15% of 12% of all their exports, 1.8% of all German exports are cars to the UK . If the Uk suddenly stopped buying Germany cars it wouldn't be good for Germany but it wouldn't be catastrophic either.
As Germany produce cars towards the more luxury end of the market, if the British person had to pay 10% more they would not be so worried but it's not the people who can afford these items that are going to be hit the most.

The second biggest German export is vehicle parts - that's even more serious for the UK for their car industry.

Gold is Uk's biggest export, very slightly ahead of cars.
Like Germany the UK's biggest trading partner is the USA. The biggest market for cars produced by the UK is.... China.

Thus it's not as if they are not already selling to markets they are supposedly desperately seeking deals for. The problem is tariffs and how much it all costs.
Being a net importer, which Germany isn't, tariffs pose less of a problem whereas the Uk being a net importer means many more problems.

I could write a 1000 page essay on this and we haven't even got into logistic problems, organisational problems, financial services etc

Being facetious, the Uk want to sell chocolate cake to France, gold to the Gold Coast, lamb (95% of exports go to the EU) to NZ and Oz and no doubt refrigerators to Eskimos.

Saw an interview with a welsh sheep farmer on TV , said he voted to Leave because the EU is supposedly undemocratic and wanted his country back, he also realised his business would go bust without the EU subsidies and a tariff of 50% being slapped on his exports - but hey ho!
 
Last edited:
Are you sure you want to see that? Because what an unregulated free market actually looks like is giant companies eating up smaller companies and monopolizing markets until you have no small providers left, and the customer has very little choice unless they want to pay twice as much for something as the giant company is selling for. And of course those giant companies don't really care about things like the environment, or workers rights or the effect of their policies on local communities because they're companies not governments.

It would be a very grey and bleak future.

well. thats just made up.
Subsidies or specific protection against foreign competitors are not the same things as regulation anyway.
 
Of course their family can come, immediate family anyway. It is a way of getting talent into the country and that will add value to the economy ultimately. It is the low skilled workers with lots of dependents that are unappealling.

We need to retain Eastern European immigration which an immediate threat as they are our most productive citizens due to being generally young, childless and leaving the country after a period. They pay tax and create low burden on the state

Will they have to pay for schooling? What about health? Will they be entitled to benefits? If they lose their job will they be kicked out of the country?

How many low skilled migrants with laege numbers of dependents move here every year?

If nothing changes around migration numbers why the hell did we vote out?
 
They are also important for France. Funnily enough, the UK and France are great at the same things car and aeronautics parts(we can't build a car to save our lives though), we are and should be very close in that department because it's good for both of us, it's also two big countries that are naturally oriented to the sea and we should exploit that together. To be frank the situation bothers me, I don't understand why we try to compete when we should work together.

I've got a Nissan - same company, I think, but built in Japan. Great car.....
 
Will they have to pay for schooling? What about health? Will they be entitled to benefits? If they lose their job will they be kicked out of the country?

How many low skilled migrants with laege numbers of dependents move here every year?

If nothing changes around migration numbers why the hell did we vote out?

No, they would not have to pay out for schooling. I'm not sure what you are getting at here. Top rate tax payers are less likely to be a burden on the state, that is obvious. They are also likely to add more value to the economy per head too.

I agree with your last point. I think there will be a 25% reduction at most.
 
Aren't a lot of them manufactured in the UK though? Are you saying that the supply chain is entirely dependent on the EU? If the price of these household goods go up to a prohibitive level then that creates opportunites for new markets from non-EU countries and even domestic based companies no?

I'm not sure what argument you're trying to pick because I don't disagree with the things you are saying. But one thing not to forget is even if the manufacturing is done in the U.K. you still need to import raw materials for the manufacturing from the EU. BASF supplying chemicals to a British Unilever factory manufacturing under license of Henkel, for example. Supply chains can be very complicated.
 
I'm not sure what argument you're trying to pick because I don't disagree with the things you are saying. But one thing not to forget is even if the manufacturing is done in the U.K. you still need to import raw materials for the manufacturing from the EU. BASF supplying chemicals to a British Unilever factory manufacturing under license of Henkel, for example. Supply chains can be very complicated.

The point being that overtime either these German companies adapt to the new conditions to trade successfully with the UK or they are superceded by other EU, non EU or British based companies. The economy will adapt and Britain will return to growth with or without Germany being our number one import market.
 
No, they would not have to pay out for schooling. I'm not sure what you are getting at here. Top rate tax payers are less likely to be a burden on the state, that is obvious. They are also likely to add more value to the economy per head too.

I agree with your last point. I think there will be a 25% reduction at most.

Trying to find out how welcoming as a nation we are going to be. A family of 4 would need to pay 48k of taxes to not 'burden' the state. There's not that many high rate tax payers who'll pay that much. Not many nurses on that kind of money, and we'll definitely be trying to attract them here
 
The point being that overtime either these German companies adapt to the new conditions to trade successfully with the UK or they are superceded by other EU, non EU or British based companies. The economy will adapt and Britain will return to growth with or without Germany being our number one import market.

Great 10 years of stagnation after 2007 and we can do it all again from 2019. Woop! Woop!
 
The point being that overtime either these German companies adapt to the new conditions to trade successfully with the UK or they are superceded by other EU, non EU or British based companies. The economy will adapt and Britain will return to growth with or without Germany being our number one import market.

Yes I agree. The problem will be, though, that Britain will become less competitive and very reliant on service industries. Britain will become more expensive and the man on the street will feel it in his pocket. Public services could deteriorate even more as the government collects less revenue from PLC Britain. That's the whole isssue I have with Brexit, why choose something which is bad for the country as a whole?
Brexit will make it easier for Rupert Murdoch to expand his empire mind.
 
Trying to find out how welcoming as a nation we are going to be. A family of 4 would need to pay 48k of taxes to not 'burden' the state. There's not that many high rate tax payers who'll pay that much. Not many nurses on that kind of money, and we'll definitely be trying to attract them here

You are looking at it in simplistic terms. Tax revenues come from other sources aside from paypacket taxes. Higher rate tax payers will add more value to the economy per head which generates tax receipts. What exactly is your argument here anyway? That we should bring in more burdonsome low skilled workers instead?


Yes I agree. The problem will be, though, that Britain will become less competitive and very reliant on service industries. Britain will become more expensive and the man on the street will feel it in his pocket. Public services could deteriorate even more as the government collects less revenue from PLC Britain. That's the whole isssue I have with Brexit, why choose something which is bad for the country as a whole?
Brexit will make it easier for Rupert Murdoch to expand his empire mind.

Great 10 years of stagnation after 2007 and we can do it all again from 2019. Woop! Woop!

It is done now though. Hopefull we get a favourable enough transition deal to soften the blow as much as possible.
 
well. thats just made up.

Except it isn't, which is why hugely decreased regulation of the US banking system ended up with the number of seperate banks dropping from dozens down to a handful. Without regulation, big corporations take more and more control. It's hardly a conspiracy theory.

Bank-consolidation.jpg
 
Go on holiday somewhere where you get more for your pound.

Leave the car at home and get the bike out

1st world problems
Not really. Not if you are one of the many thousands of families who look forward to a fairly low-cost fortnight in the European beach resorts. I picked up 100 euros yesterday, it cost me over £94.

If you're not in the position to go to the other side of the world, I don't know where you'd go to get some hot sunshine if you didn't go to Spain, France, Portugal or Italy.
 
Last edited:
You are looking at it in simplistic terms. Tax revenues come from other sources aside from paypacket taxes. Higher rate tax payers will add more value to the economy per head which generates tax receipts. What exactly is your argument here anyway? That we should bring in more burdonsome low skilled workers instead?

Low rate tax payers spend almost all the money they make, I suggest they have as big an effect economically as high rate tax payers, cash flow

It is done now though. Hopefull we get a favourable enough transition deal to soften the blow as much as possible.

Not done yet, let's hope we get such a catastrophically stinky deal that people come to their senses before we leave
 
Not really. Not if you are one of the many thousands families who look forward to a fairly low-cost fortnight in the European beach resorts. I picked up 100 euros yesterday, it cost me over £94.

If you're not in the position to go to the other side of the world, I don't know where you'd go to get some hot sunshine if you didn't go to Spain, France, Portugal or Italy.

With the prices of plane tickets nowadays 2 weeks Thailand is probably cheaper than 2 weeks Costa del Sol
 
Go on holiday somewhere where you get more for your pound.

Leave the car at home and get the bike out

1st world problems

The pound has devalued by around 10% against all currencies so that's nowhere abroad that you can go where you don't lose out. You could always go to overpriced British destinations but I believe your whole point is to get more not less for your pound.

Personally it would be impossible for me to cycle from London to Devonport but even if it was possible should I have to inconvenience myself because 17 odd million people can't stand foreigners?

Regardless, personal transport is not the only issue, fuel makes everything go around from necessities like food to luxuries etc.

It's quite obvious that you prefer to stick your head in the sand and think that nothing has changed despite not even living in this country, and so do the Brexit advocates.

05onfire1_xp-master768-v2.jpg
 
Not really. Not if you are one of the many thousands of families who look forward to a fairly low-cost fortnight in the European beach resorts. I picked up 100 euros yesterday, it cost me over £94.

If you're not in the position to go to the other side of the world, I don't know where you'd go to get some hot sunshine if you didn't go to Spain, France, Portugal or Italy.
Gibralter
 
Except it isn't, which is why hugely decreased regulation of the US banking system ended up with the number of seperate banks dropping from dozens down to a handful. Without regulation, big corporations take more and more control. It's hardly a conspiracy theory.

Bank-consolidation.jpg

I don't think that we should move to a different sector, because it won't advance anyone's argument.

Are you sure you want to see that? Because what an unregulated free market actually looks like is giant companies eating up smaller companies and monopolizing markets until you have no small providers left, and the customer has very little choice unless they want to pay twice as much for something as the giant company is selling for. And of course those giant companies don't really care about things like the environment, or workers rights or the effect of their policies on local communities because they're companies not governments.

It would be a very grey and bleak future.

Do I represent your claims in a resonable way, if I'd summerize them like this:
1) An market for food producers without subsidies would lead to monopolies
2) big cooperations care less about the environment or workers rights than small companies
3) it would have an effect on local communities
4) subsidies are a reasonable tool against this.

  1. that is a very controversial statement; I don’t know anyone in the wider mainstream who’d make that argument. The market would probably consolidate around big companies (because they are often more productive in a sector like farming), but it wouldn't lead to monopolies. Having a consolidated and very productive market is a good thing, not a bad one. Everyone benefits from low costs for food.
  2. I don’t know any evidence for that. It just depends on the regulation.
  3. That is true, but this form of economic change happens all the time in almost every sector.
  4. That is controversal. Now I am honest enough to admit, that I don’t know which companies actually benefit from agro-subsidies in the EU. If you have any credible analysis about this I’d appreciate it, if you could point me in this direction. hat I know is that the USA also pays massive subsidies and the lion share (~80%+) goes to about 24 very big, very productive corporations.


    So in short: Not taking lobbyists (and politicans) into account, it is almost universally acknowledged that the current form of agricultural subsidies is primarily explained by the lobbying power of this industry.
 
It's quite obvious that you prefer to stick your head in the sand and think that nothing has changed despite not even living in this country, and so do the Brexit advocates.
My pending inheritance will be greatly affected by the low pound but I don't feckin whinge about it tho, its just how things work out.
 
Was about to post the same. Tories loosing it, working hard to eradicate the last bit of respect their "special partners" have for them.
 
My pending inheritance will be greatly affected by the low pound but I don't feckin whinge about it tho, its just how things work out.

So you accept there are already consequences and you're happy about them and that's your peril. The person I replied to doesn't accept that there are any hence my comments.

I have a right to show discontent at other people's stupidity.
 
Lord Howard says in today's Telegraph that May would go to war to defend the sovereignty of Gibraltar. Spain is not likely to invade but it holds strong cards to get a treaty on joint sovereignty. Probably the UK was relying on Gibraltar as a way to access the EU single market. But May, Johnson & co have been outsmarted, impossible though that may sound.

As for the holidays - stay British and go to Southend,Blackpool, Fleetwood and Southport.
 
Last edited:
Yes I agree. The problem will be, though, that Britain will become less competitive and very reliant on service industries. Britain will become more expensive and the man on the street will feel it in his pocket. Public services could deteriorate even more as the government collects less revenue from PLC Britain. That's the whole isssue I have with Brexit, why choose something which is bad for the country as a whole?
Brexit will make it easier for Rupert Murdoch to expand his empire mind.

The UK government will collect all the tariffs, don't forget, and can use them to improve the infrastructure, the NHS, subsidies for UK farmers, subsidies for exporters, whatever...

Best of all, they could also employ Juncker as an advisor on how to turn the UK into a Corporate Tax Haven - he spent 15 years perfecting it as Minister of Finance in Luxemburg, remember - and then the UK Government would get even more tax without doing anything. No public expenditure on the infrastructure, no economic migrants, etc, etc. Just lots of tax from AMazon, Starbucks, etc, which Luxemburg currently gets for doing nothing. Sounds like a win-win to me. And you guys also get to have the benefit of Juncker's wisdom as he could also double up to negotiate with Sturgeon and the rest of the SNP about how stupid they are leaving the United Kingdom and how much they'll suffer, and it's going to cost them £200 million before negotiations even begin.

The bit about Murdoch....I think it is the UK Government which has halted his purchase of SKY - the EU never even noticed he'd made the bid.
 
The UK government will collect all the tariffs, don't forget, and can use them to improve the infrastructure, the NHS, subsidies for UK farmers, subsidies for exporters, whatever...

Best of all, they could also employ Juncker as an advisor on how to turn the UK into a Corporate Tax Haven - he spent 15 years perfecting it as Minister of Finance in Luxemburg, remember - and then the UK Government would get even more tax without doing anything. No public expenditure on the infrastructure, no economic migrants, etc, etc. Just lots of tax from AMazon, Starbucks, etc, which Luxemburg currently gets for doing nothing. Sounds like a win-win to me. And you guys also get to have the benefit of Juncker's wisdom as he could also double up to negotiate with Sturgeon and the rest of the SNP about how stupid they are leaving the United Kingdom and how much they'll suffer, and it's going to cost them £200 million before negotiations even begin.

The bit about Murdoch....I think it is the UK Government which has halted his purchase of SKY - the EU never even noticed he'd made the bid.

You do realise who is paying the tariffs
 
Lord Howard says in today's Telegraph that May would go to war to defend the sovereignty of Gibraltar. Spain is not likely to invade but it holds strong cards to get a treaty on joint sovereignty. Probably the UK was relying on Gibraltar as a way to access the EU single market. But May, Johnson & co have been outsmarted, impossible though that may sound.

As for the holidays - stay British and go to Southend,Blackpool, Fleetwood and Southport.
Mrs May is acting more and more like Mrs T every day. Oh, and Southport - you'll all be very welcome, but personally I wouldn't come here for my holidays!
 
People who can afford expensive German cars, perhaps ?

There'll be no tariffs on Japanese, Korean, British cars.....And anyway, shouldn't we all be buying Chevrolets ?

No , everybody who buys anything that is imported that has a tariff on it. Thus all the money you want to be used to improve all the services you mentioned will be paid by the man or woman in the street or a different way of taxing people - a cheaper way would have been to stay in the EU and increase taxes but not having a devalued currency.

Btw WTO tariffs on cars I believe is 9.8% so there will
 
Last edited:
Mrs May is acting more and more like Mrs T every day. Oh, and Southport - you'll all be very welcome, but personally I wouldn't come here for my holidays!
I have fond memories of those coastal resorts in the north west, who needs Menorca when you've got Morecambe ? Actually, I would be happy to see some people set off across Morecambe Bay sands, without a guide of course.

The silly sabre-rattling is part of a self-defence project I suspect, or at least hope. Tomorrow we'll hear May talking about a referendum for Catalonia.One of the big dangers from now on is that what can be acheived in the negotiations will not be simply because of this type of foolishness.

Can anyone see Farage or Johnson leading from the front ?
 
Last edited: