I just dont believe these figure will pan out. I have no evidence to support this whatsoever but these 20+ point gaps are so unbelievable that I'm sure the numbers must converge a little. No party has managed even a 15 point gap in the post war era, to get a 20-odd point win now, and for a sitting Government at that, is too unrealistic. Hell, even 1931 only had a 25 point gap and that was a truly exceptional set of circumstances.
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I just dont believe these figure will pan out. I have no evidence to support this whatsoever but these 20+ point gaps are so unbelievable that I'm sure the numbers must converge a little. No party has managed even a 15 point gap in the post war era, to get a 20-odd point win now, and for a sitting Government at that, is too unrealistic. Hell, even 1931 only had a 25 point gap and that was a truly exceptional set of circumstances.
I guess, firstly lot's of people flat out don't want to vote anyone but the two main parties. Realistically, the Lib Dems are not going to get a majority, so anything the put forward is flawed. But democracy is a flawed construct to begin with, if you like their policies, then you might as well vote for them.
For what they did in power last time, they achieved quite a few of their policies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8619630.stm
A lot of what was in their manifesto did get implemented, with the Tories taking credit. Obviously the heart breaking one for a lot of people was going back on tuition fee rises.
Equally though there has been no labour leader so inept either... So anything is possible... I certainly expect the lowest number of Labour MPs post ww2 to be returned
Quick. Get the immigration mugs into the dishwasher and will someone please get Corbyn to stand in front of a tombstone with policies carved into it!
Better still ask him if he would authorise police to kill terrorists... Or ask him about Trident... Or if he can sing the national anthem... Or if he was too thick to sit on a free seat in the train... Or just desperate to make a point but incapable of even finding a genuinely busy train.
So from your list then we can conclude its virtually nothing to do with him but manufactured media outrages (including one which got the journalist that reported it told off)?
This is the result you get from putting in today's polls numbers
Supposedly the Tory's would win Blair's old seat and all.
Supposedly the Tory's would win Blair's old seat and all.
afaik, Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens are asking for versions a softer brexit. And depending on which aspect of the EU you voted remain for, one of those parties is a better option for the simple fact that brexit is the biggest political change of the century so far.
Fancy the Greens might get more than 0.0%.
You know it's a good response when it puts the admitted misreporting out first in the list as the big 'gotcha'.
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With these polls that have been all over social and MS media, do we know the numbers polled?
Oh god! Corbyn to be on Marr's show in the morning. Sure to be a hatchet job.
Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday reckons the Conservatives have leaked a couple of points to Labour.
Survation. @Survation 39m39 minutes ago
NEW POLL: Our first #GE2017 VI
CON 40%
LAB 29%
LD 11%
UKIP 11%
SNP 4%
GRE 2%
Other 3%
Survation. @Survation 39m39 minutes ago
NEW POLL: Our first #GE2017 VI
CON 40%
LAB 29%
LD 11%
UKIP 11%
SNP 4%
GRE 2%
Other 3%
Other way round, last one was +9.
The reds are coming up the hill, boys![/RAWK]
Supposedly the next poll for Scotland at midnight has Tories well above 30%. feck me, I always thought we lived in a bubble. Apparently not. Straight fight between the two nationalisms it is then.
Seriously... These polls are competely and utterly meaningless unless we know how, when and where they were conducted, and how many people were polled.
What do you mean "how" and "where"?
Comres and Opinium were 2000 samples, 19-20th fieldwork. YouGov haven't released the tables yet that I've seen but it'll be of a similar sample with more recently fieldwork.
If we wanted polls worth getting hard about, there's the one at the top of this thread.
We're winning random twitter polls? We've got this in the bag.
UKIP with 19 votes
Were are you people?
Were are you people?
The twitter polls, people just never learn 
I look forward to the SNP winning a 47% landslide across the UK.
Asked this same thing yesterday. No one come out so far.
Mods please make the voters visible.
Jack monroe's twitter feed is 34% tory. Says it all really.
Here's the Scotland poll that was mentioned earlier
A slightly less insane but still pretty bad one
A slightly less insane but still pretty bad one
How so? SNP being lower?
Yes, assuming it's a straight SNP-Tory fight with labour splitting ' union' votes from conservatives.
Interesting thought but had a look and looks like (uniform swing so doesn't account for vote distribution etc) the first scenario wins the Tories 13, the second one 7.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/...lay=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2015
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/...lay=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2015
Entertainingly, Angus Robertson loses his seat in both.
Huh, that's weird. I always looked at 30-33 as a watershed in a multiparty election, and keeping a party under 30 as the big goal.
Edit: maybe the union/independence vote is strongly regional, and thus Conservatives gain from Labour losses directly.
Looking at the six seats they gain in the first but don't in the second, four had the SNP at 45% or under in 2015, with a big Labour vote to cannibalise. The fifth had the LDs as the second party, so they gain it instead, and the sixth is a relatively straight SNP/Tory fight that they would just need the extra swing to win.
John Curtice has looked at the numbers more closely and reckons they'd "only" gain 11, so there'll be local factors as well (eg Angus Robertson).
Asked this same thing yesterday. No one come out so far.
Mods please make the voters visible.
hello