It sort of works both ways, you can win with a good defence if you have a brilliant QB and you can win with a good QB if you have a brilliant defence. Though I think the focus on QB is right, it's the single position that can make the biggest difference. It's certainly not the biggest weakness. If it was all about just avoiding turnovers, Tyrod Taylor would be the best QB around instead of being traded to the Browns.
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Haha fair!
So the reason I said the QB is the biggest weakness is because most plays he does outside of handing the ball of to a runner a kind of high risk/high reward situations. Which means, by law of averages, eventually your QB is going to throw a clanger in a crucial situation; and even more so if the opposing defense is even average, let alone some of the elite ones in the playoffs.
If you look at SB winners, apart from three (P Manning; Brady; Brees), most of the recent teams had quarterbacks who were very early in their career (usually their worst period unless they are the anomalies). And even those guys: Manning at Denver had to have much more restricted style of offense and a dominating defense to win after the more QB-centric offense got eaten alive by Seattle, Brady's early offenses were also very heavily restricted to minimise QB mistakes coupled with dominating defenses. Recently that's changed a bit but I'd say these three are the exception to the rule.
I can't remember how it went for Brees. But my point isn't to say Alex Smith is the pinnacle of quarterbacking or anything: it's really that (1) you don't need a great QB to win at all, and (2) teams are overpaying for QBs in terms of draft picks and contracts when they can afford to get an avg to above avg QB, change their offensive schemes to give the QB fewer reads on passes and even decrease the amount of passing period, then use the rest of that cap space to get a strong team.
The thing is you’ve kind of explained why i disagree with Andrew in your post.
I don’t disagree with you. Or what Rado said. But to have a great D, you need multiple top level pieces at all 3 levels of the defence. Secondary linebacker and d-line. Multiple players. Whereas having an elite quarterback is one position and one guy which can, depending on how good, pretty much provide you the same benefit.
That’s why it’s not overrated. One player can make such a huge difference and far moreso than any other position. But yes it’s a team sport. No QB will ever win just by himself being elite. But to replicate what a great QB can do, you need multiple elite players at multiple positions.
Perhaps try consider it from a relative perspective. You’re absolutely right - a QB can make the biggest mistakes in the game. But they can also be game changing.
Think of it like this though. Imagine if you have Aaron Rodgers vs average NFL starter. And also imagine if you had Von Miller vs average NFL starter. Or Julio vs average NFL starter. Etc. You get my point. In my opinion, the RELATIVE impact of Rodgers over Mariota, for example, would far and away outweigh the corresponding relative impact of the best players at a position vs an average starter.
@RobinLFC
Also I personally don’t buy the Bortles argument. The fact is he had exceptional games in the playoffs this year. Comparing the playoff Bortles vs what’s synonymous with his name is kind of misleading. Point being we didn’t see the 50% accuracy 3 interceptions Bortles in those games, and therefore the D didn’t carry that. He was an asset to that team.
Also I personally don’t buy the Bortles argument. The fact is he had exceptional games in the playoffs this year. Comparing the playoff Bortles vs what’s synonymous with his name is kind of misleading. Point being we didn’t see the 50% accuracy 3 interceptions Bortles in those games, and therefore the D didn’t carry that. He was an asset to that team.
Fully agree.
However with what Rodgers is set to make, you can probably add a few top round rookies or two or three very good to elite defensive players. The Saints are set for a few years now, with both the DROY and OROY on low money. High draft picks can compensate the lack of an elite QB, especially since they're paid so much at the moment.
Meh, I didn't say he stank up the place, he just needed to not suck and he definitely managed that. If you're average/low on confidence, not making mistakes is what's crucial and he did just that, but he wasn't the reason they got so far imo.
Can’t disagree with that.
Absolutely they can, but don’t think that makes QB overrated or weakness of a team.
Who are the great QBs that made a great offense without very good to great skill players and a very good OLine? A great QB by himself will only make an offense functional. I don't think that their importance is as big as having a shut down corner who will effectively cut the offense playbook and make the field smaller for the rest of the defense, they also give more time to the DL to get to the QB.
I think we should just agree to disagree. To me it clearly obvious that there are QBs out there who’ve lifted offences without great skill players. Like I said it’s a team sport so no one player will make a team amazing. But for me an elite QB makes a much bigger impact than one elite player in any other position.
Who are these players that have done it without a defense, skill players and/or an OLine? Among the current players, only Brady did it from time to time but he has one of the best coach ever and the Pats generally have a very good defense, the best special team and elite skill players.
The one player that has been in a really bad situation and still maintained a good offense was Cousins but his critics have a point about the fact that a defense will be more willing to contain and give you yards when their offense torched them.
I just said that it’s a team game and no one does anything on their own ... in speaking relatively, that the influence of a top end QB is massive. Look a Green Bay when Rodgers was injured. Or panthers when Cam wasn’t playing at his peak. Your arguing a different point to me. I’m talking relatively not absolutely.
That's an interesting point but I feel that you are making the wrong conclusion. Solely based on your last post, it's about replacement level QBs and in that case it's true that if you lose your QB1 you are generally in huge trouble unlike every other positions there is probably only maximum 40 QBs able make an NFL offense function. In that sense LT and centers are also a pain to replace and will make your offense much weaker if they go down.
In that sense, it would be interesting to see a Value Over Replacement Player(VORP) for NFL players.
Vorp vorp vorp
I understand but what I was saying isn't that great QBs are useless. It's that you can't look at them without considering the tradeoffs involved and teams are putting far too many resources into their QBs.
So what I said in the original post is that teams are too fixated on finding the rare HOF QB, when in reality those QBs are incredibly rare, and you don't even need one of those to win the SB. This has meant that teams are overpaying for QBs who are nowhere near the level of Rodgers, and you get the Ravens setting records for Joe Flacco and countless 1st round picks being wasted on QBs every year.
The Colts in 2012 picked the 'Aaron Rodgers' level QB in Andrew Luck. Did he make them better? Yeah sure, but now they are sitting there with an 'elite' QB with nothing to show for it apart from a huge cap hit.
All valid points. I still stand by my conclusion, but there’s a case either way I feel. But i don’t think I’d ever go as far as saying their overrated. I would agree though that the quest teams go through to find a QB1 overvalues the position. My point is purely about once you have one - and when you do it’s definitely not overrated.
The argument about what teams give up to draft QBs is a whole other argument and at that stage 100% teams are overvaluing the chance to get one.
Absolutely agree. It’s no coincidence though that QBs get paid the most generally. Then LT. Not only because they protect the QB, but because there is a genuine dearth of quality at that position right now.
I’m really arguing purely on an influence perspective. I still think losing an elite QB is much worse than other positions, but then again Dallas were a lot weaker with Smith down.
I wouldn't say that it's a huge contract, the Vikings are in a weird situation where they don't have a WR2 but two WR1, this contract is in the norm while Thielen is currently on a very team friendly contract which some think will be updated. The only issue with Diggs is that he misses 3 or 4 games per year, at the moment.
It's also simply a case of losing your best player hurts if the replacement isn't good enough. The Pats coped without Brady because Jimmy G, the 'Boys didn't do well without Zeke because his replacement sucked.
Defense is 11 players though
To win you either have:
- A good qb and elite coaching/management that maximises low draft picks and gets the best out of players (Patriots)
- An elite qb and some luck (Peyton's first superbowl)
- An elite defence and a serviceable QB (Broncos with corpse Manning, Eli's bowls, Seahawks - although Wilson is great too)
Just an elite qb isn't enough, see Packers and Saints (until last season). But it's silly to say defence is more important I reckon.
- A good qb and elite coaching/management that maximises low draft picks and gets the best out of players (Patriots)
- An elite qb and some luck (Peyton's first superbowl)
- An elite defence and a serviceable QB (Broncos with corpse Manning, Eli's bowls, Seahawks - although Wilson is great too)
Just an elite qb isn't enough, see Packers and Saints (until last season). But it's silly to say defence is more important I reckon.
Great trolling
Well yeah, it’s rather like saying your life would be better with $1 million than not, but you’re not going to start buying $1,000 worth of lottery tickets every week are you?
I think we agree on some things and disagree on just how important the QB position is in general - which is fair.
I think that I agree with you but I'm not sure about the formulation. One QB isn't that much important in isolation but the QB room is where a team can't be lenient, the nature of the QB market means that you absolutely need to invest in the best QB room possible.
Yeah that definitely makes sense. You can see the difference the jump from an absolutely shocking QB room to a decent one, example of this is the difference Carson Palmer made to Arizona.
The flip side of this is you've got teams becoming contenders for extended periods and even winning Championships with the Colin Kaepernick/Alex Smith and Nick Foles as their QBs.
Make of that what you will.
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Yanet Garcia?
Decker to the Pats. Solid pick-up if he stays healthy.
Football tonight 
Insurance policy to cover the loss of Edelman during his suspension imo.
I'm guessing that helmet rule will be the new "what even is a catch" discussion. It's apparently why Roquan Smith hasn't signed for the Bears yet because he wants some kind of insurance policy for the fines with respect to that rule.
Yeah I think there’s going to be a lot of confusion/flags/fines this season with the new rule.
Pretty sure most tackles are initiated with players lowering their head (not sure what OL/DL are going to do). Also I think not just restricting the penalty when the helmet hits the neck/head of the opponent is too wide & will lead to inconsistent calls.
I wasn't really into football when they were peaking but Moss getting in as a first ballot while TO needed three times is a bit of a joke, isn't it? Especially if the committee is only supposed to look at on-field stuff.
Their stats are similar by moss was on a slightly different level.
On a side not i think its a disgrace that the year lewis goes in he has another player at the same pposition going in.
Those generational talents, lewis, brady manning, ed reed, troy p etc shoudnt have someone at the same position
According to Jason Whitlock, the Hall isn’t just about how good you were on the field. And I believe him!
I don't see how it is a disgrace at all. The achievement is reaching the hall of fame - it's not measured on who else gets there at the same time as you.