Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Scotland isn't a 'former colonised country'. It joined the union voluntarily after it found itself in financial dire straits after bodging its own attempts at colonialism in South America. It joined the union in order to escape financial peril and to get back in on the colonising. Joining the union had an economically transformational effect on Scotland and they were key players in many aspects of the Empire.

With their secret weapon of nothing on under their kilts on the Khyber Pass.

 
EU says no-deal now 'a likely scenario' and that managed no-deal won't be on offer
Here is the full statement from the European commissionfollowing the vote in the Commons.

The commission regrets the negative vote in the House of Commons today. As per the European council (Article 50) decision on 22 March, the period provided for in article 50(3) is extended to 12 April. It will be for the UK to indicate the way forward before that date, for consideration by the European council.

A “no-deal” scenario on 12 April is now a likely scenario. The EU has been preparing for this since December 2017 and is now fully prepared for a “no-deal” scenario at midnight on 12 April. The EU will remain united. The benefits of the withdrawal agreement, including a transition period, will in no circumstances be replicated in a “no-deal” scenario. Sectoral mini-deals are not an option.
 
Revoke I think, no deal only got 140 votes?

What? If Remain gets 49% of the votes you want a 2nd round between 2 options that totaled 51%?
I don't necessarily want it, I'm just saying that would be the most logical. That would mean majority want to Leave so let's see which Leave scenario would the country prefer. Remainers would then at least get a choice, too: they can vote to avoid No Deal.
 
EU says no-deal now 'a likely scenario' and that managed no-deal won't be on offer
Here is the full statement from the European commissionfollowing the vote in the Commons.

The commission regrets the negative vote in the House of Commons today. As per the European council (Article 50) decision on 22 March, the period provided for in article 50(3) is extended to 12 April. It will be for the UK to indicate the way forward before that date, for consideration by the European council.

A “no-deal” scenario on 12 April is now a likely scenario. The EU has been preparing for this since December 2017 and is now fully prepared for a “no-deal” scenario at midnight on 12 April. The EU will remain united. The benefits of the withdrawal agreement, including a transition period, will in no circumstances be replicated in a “no-deal” scenario. Sectoral mini-deals are not an option.
I assume everyone has built a formidable stockpile by now, but if not, I'd do it this weekend.
 
You clearly have more sense than most MPs

My assumptions are the following:

BINO: The UK will at some point realize that it's not a good idea to be rule takers and will want to be at the forefront of lawmaking which will lead to a deeper integration than BINO aka EU or EFTA full membership.
No deal: The Irish border will have to be dealt with by either going into a BINO agreement or irish people will take care of the issue themselves and reunite, I could also see Scotland leave the union.

Maybe I lack imagination but I don't really see any other scenario and certainly not one where things stop at No deal.
 
'Multiple government sources suggesting that there is a "run-off" idea circulated "the moment the numbers became clear"

This would mean pitting her deal against the strongest proposal from indicative votes process.'
Ffs, when is her party going to step in & stop her?
 
I don't necessarily want it, I'm just saying that would be the most logical. That would mean majority want to Leave so let's see which Leave scenario would the country prefer. Remainers would then at least get a choice, too: they can vote to avoid No Deal.
You can't make that kind of assumption, hypothetically, if May deal (25%), no deal (30%), remain (45%), the logical thing to do is get rid of the least supported and go round 2 with the 2 better supported options.

My assumptions are the following:

BINO: The UK will at some point realize that it's not a good idea to be rule takers and will want to be at the forefront of lawmaking which will lead to a deeper integration than BINO aka EU or EFTA full membership.
No deal: The Irish border will have to be dealt with by either going into a BINO agreement or irish people will take care of the issue themselves and reunite, I could also see Scotland leave the union.

Maybe I lack imagination but I don't really see any other scenario and certainly not one where things stop at No deal.
No deal will likely lead to Scotland demanding another referendum very soon and create another border issue.
 
How the feck can we have four votes on the same thing but a send referendum is an affront to democracy?
 
Yes, I'd say enough food for at least a month, two months of household necessities (toilet paper, toiletries, nappies etc) and advance supplies of any important medicines you need.

If you swim DownSouth we might give you asylum :p
 
Because no-one else wants the job.

This is the crux of it. Hard Brexiteers want her to be the one that falls on the sword of no deal and are guiding her towards it.

Soft Brexiteers know it’s and impossible task and are happy to leave her get the blame.

No true remainer with a remain agenda would ever get support for the job.
 
Scotland isn't a 'former colonised country'. It joined the union voluntarily after it found itself in financial dire straits after bodging its own attempts at colonialism in South America. It joined the union in order to escape financial peril and to get back in on the colonising. Joining the union had an economically transformational effect on Scotland and they were key players in many aspects of the Empire.

:lol: pwned by a history lesson! Fair play. I’ll have to take that one on the chin.

Still, though, I don’t think there’s anything hypocritical in the SNP wanting to disentangle Scotland from the eurosceptic UK, while doing everything it can to remain part of the EU. Happy to agree to disagree on this point.
 

Maybe these pricks should have thought about this at the time of the referendum...
 
The control of Brexit it now seems would finally and irrevocably switch to the EU, regardless of what the UK Parliament do; unless that is they return to the binary option of Leave(No deal) or Revoke A50/Remain and choose one or the other. The controlling levers now rest with the 27 nations to be precise, to allow a long extension, or not!

What sorts of dilemmas that creates for each nation is hard to tell. However past experience would suggest that Germany would be the driving force and therefore get its way, but with Merkel also leaving the stage shortly, that's not a slam dunk! It also looks like the most vociferous opponent of the long extension would be Macron because of his own problems, can't see him wanting the UK involved in the EU elections, but a delay would give him longer to placate his fishermen, especially as we would still be involved in the Common Fisheries Policy requirements. Spain would want to pursue the Gibraltar matter, presumably it would help them if there were no UK MEP's in the EU parliament? Other countries may also have their 'preferred outcomes' to pursue as well.

IMO I don't really think it matters what Parliament comes up with next week, May is not listening her 'tin ear' will have fallen off altogether and I suspect now neither is the EU, they wont change the WA and have the high ground and a clear run at sorting the trading situation.

Game set and match to the EU.
 
You can't make that kind of assumption, hypothetically, if May deal (25%), no deal (30%), remain (45%), the logical thing to do is get rid of the least supported and go round 2 with the 2 better supported options.
Yeah, that's a reasonable solution, too.
 
You can't make that kind of assumption, hypothetically, if May deal (25%), no deal (30%), remain (45%), the logical thing to do is get rid of the least supported and go round 2 with the 2 better supported options.

.
Surely you could have two questions

1. Leave or Remain
2. If Leave win, May's Deal or No Deal

Only consider question 2 if Leave is > 50%
 
A UK snap election would not end the EU requirement that Britain stage European parliament elections if it wishes to remain in the EU beyond 23 May, the date of the European elections, Norbert Röttgen, the German parliament’s foreign affairs committee chair, has said.

Röttgen, who has been in London for talks with David Lidington, the de-facto deputy prime minister, said:

If Britain decides to be members on the European Union on the day of the European elections then European citizens have the right to take part in the European elections. You cannot deny citizens the right to take part in European elections. That is clear.

He also insisted any request for an extension of article 50 beyond the month of May would have to come from the British government and not via parliament.

And he warned any Conservative candidate for the party’s leadership election who promised to unstitch a signed EU withdrawal agreement would be making “simple, legally meaningless pledges that cannot be fulfilled under international law”.

He added if any Tory candidate sought to renegotiate a signed withdrawal agreement, the reaction would be “this is a done deal, full stop”. Röttgen said:

We would notice the announcement of bad faith, particularly by people who are perhaps acquiring power in your country.
 
A UK snap election would not end the EU requirement that Britain stage European parliament elections if it wishes to remain in the EU beyond 23 May, the date of the European elections, Norbert Röttgen, the German parliament’s foreign affairs committee chair, has said.

Röttgen, who has been in London for talks with David Lidington, the de-facto deputy prime minister, said:

If Britain decides to be members on the European Union on the day of the European elections then European citizens have the right to take part in the European elections. You cannot deny citizens the right to take part in European elections. That is clear.

He also insisted any request for an extension of article 50 beyond the month of May would have to come from the British government and not via parliament.

And he warned any Conservative candidate for the party’s leadership election who promised to unstitch a signed EU withdrawal agreement would be making “simple, legally meaningless pledges that cannot be fulfilled under international law”.

He added if any Tory candidate sought to renegotiate a signed withdrawal agreement, the reaction would be “this is a done deal, full stop”. Röttgen said:

We would notice the announcement of bad faith, particularly by people who are perhaps acquiring power in your country.
Do they have time to hold the general election on the same date as well... Seems very likley the EU elections will be taking place