Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
horsechoker said:
People complain that a lot of people should have voted but I think a lot of people shouldn't have voted.
Click to expand...
Couldn’t agree more, I don’t know how the public could be giving such a vote with absolutely no knowledge about it in the first place.

Really, most people I’ve spoke to have no idea of the ins and outs of politics and agreements and deals etc (I don’t either) so throwing a tv debate (of liars) in between Corrie and big brother was only going to end one way.

It was fun and a talking point for some at the time, they’ve now forgotten about it all but the mess is still here in full flow.
 
TheGame said:
Parliament hates democracy? It was agreed MPs would have a say on the final agreement. What about the Vote Leave campaign who broke election spending rules?

The official Vote Leave campaign said there would be a deal before they left, no deal was not mentioned so for those banging on about that’s what people voted for is bollocks.
Click to expand...

Did they?

The ballot paper said leave or stay. It’s march 30th and we are still in the EU.
 
Steven Seagull said:
Did they?

The ballot paper said leave or stay. It’s march 30th and we are still in the EU.
Click to expand...

Here's the portion of their website detailing what would happen should we vote to leave - make of it what you will.

Highlights:
  • Europe yes, EU no. We have a new UK-EU Treaty based on free trade and friendly cooperation. There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. We will take back the power to negotiate our own trade deals.
  • We spend our money on our priorities. Instead of sending £350 million per week to Brussels, we will spend it on our priorities like the NHS and schools.
  • We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way.
  • We will negotiate a new UK-EU Treaty and end the legal supremacy of EU law and the European Court before the 2020 election.
  • We do not necessarily have to use Article 50 - we may agree with the EU another path that is in both our interests.
Click to expand...
 
Why don't the Daily Mail, Express, etc. tell the MPs what to do?

They were the experts 3 years ago, weren't they.
 
TheGame said:
That’s the problem with a number of voters and the media has been shite at comunicating these lies and holding people to account.
Click to expand...

Yeah the media is a disgrace but it’s not really a lie is it? Whoever was running that campaign wanted those things. I know it’s an official campaign but it would be daft to take is as gospel. They had no history or reference points to judge them.
 
paulscholes18 said:
It’s insainity that what it is. I’m all for her going but it really needs somebody who voted to leave and believes in the brexit that was voted for, rather then having another remainer with another shitty remainer version of it.
Click to expand...

Which was so clearly defined at the time and has only been clarified more over the last three years
 
Steven Seagull said:
Yeah the media is a disgrace but it’s not really a lie is it? Whoever was running that campaign wanted those things. I know it’s an official campaign but it would be daft to take is as gospel. They had no history or reference points to judge them.
Click to expand...

Sure, but it demonstrates that the intention of the official leave campaign was a pan-european free trade treaty and puts the lie to the notion of "no deal" as being people's expected outcome should they vote to leave.
 
Sassy Colin said:
wtf, she can have as many goes as she likes but we can't have a 2nd go? :wenger:
Click to expand...

Exactly.They like to tell remainers that if we have a referendum and the result does not come out as we like , will we keep going until it does. This sounds exactly what May is doing.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
Sure, but it demonstrates that the intention of the official leave campaign was a pan-european free trade treaty and puts the lie to the notion of "no deal" as being people's expected outcome should they vote to leave.
Click to expand...

I understand that but I think it’s daft to point to that campaign and point score from it. The whole thing was a shambles and ‘vote leave official’ speaks for very few people in my opinion. Doubt 95% of people even remember what it was
 
Steven Seagull said:
I understand that but I think it’s daft to point to that campaign and point score from it. The whole thing was a shambles and ‘vote leave official’ speaks for very few people in my opinion. Doubt 95% of people even remember what it was
Click to expand...

I agree the whole thing was a shambles - remain included. It's not scoring points as much as it is demonstrating that leave quite clearly means different things to different people. Statements like "the leave that people voted for" can't in reality mean all that much when the various interpretations of what leave means are themselves all over the place.
 
The Vote Leave campaign doesn't matter that much in and of itself but their suggestion that there would be a deal is reflective of the wider debate at the time. A No Deal Brexit was not being out forward by those arguing for Brexit. In fact the possibility of a No Deal was actively downplayed as it would have been perceived as an obviously negative outcome.

Yet we now see some Leavers suggesting that those who voted for Brexit actually voted with a No Deal in mind. Either they're lying, or they've forgotten the actual referendum campaign or they were too ignorant to understand what a deal meant at the time.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
I agree the whole thing was a shambles - remain included. It's not scoring points as much as it is demonstrating that leave quite clearly means different things to different people. Statements like "the leave that people voted for" can't in reality mean all that much when the various interpretations of what leave means are themselves all over the place.
Click to expand...

Yes I agree with all that. To quote T May I just think leave should actually mean leave. Rather than you didn’t know what you voted for so we’ll ignore you, as many people seem to be suggesting
 
I hate parliament as much as the next guy but I want to defend them a bit.
The referendum itself was flawed. You can't ask a binary question on an issue that is this technical with many possible outcomes. The referendum did not give a majority for anything. There are different types of brexit and we are surprised parliament can't come to an agreement on what type. Just look at the internet, just look at programmes like QT, even the public doesn' t have a consensus on what it wants. We have parliament a square peg and a round hole and asked them to sort it out. We shouldn't be surprised they can't.
This shit is on everyone.
 
I remember a lot of talk about going to WTO, taking a 5-10 year hit would be worth it to get out of the EU for good from brexiteers.

If you boil down the options, leave meant no more FoM, the ability to do your own trade deals, not be subject to EU laws, no large payments to the EU, whether it's 200-240 million of the false 340 million. It also means a hard border for Ireland and NI.

All along leave meant leave unless the EU gave in to certain things. No-one voting leave thought FoM would still exist, no-one believed leaving the EU would mean you can't do your own trade deals, no-one believed leaving the EU would mean you're still subjected to EU laws, no-one voting leave thought they'd still be paying the EU 200 million a week.

Leave has always meant leave and relies on the EU to make special arrangements which aren't forthcoming and unlikely, they have 27 nations and the EU organization to protect. The EU also have a trump card in the Irish border. Who wants to officially be responsible putting in a hard border? English people voted not really caring or considering it.

A Norway type deal means accepting FoM and paying 95% of the fee. Leave voters weren't voting with this in mind.

I don't think people in general and politicians expected the EU to play such a hardball game and I don't people and politicians a like knew how intertwined the EU is set up to be, the Labour manifesto shows this. UK is faced with no deal, take a hit and sort it out over time, or remain a full member. There's no point in compromising, you might as well stay a full member.

It's not surprising how it's come down to this as I said from the get go I can only see leave meaning fully leave ultimately as I knew how it's setup and they're unlikely to treat the UK differently. They might do afterwards, who knows in a few years if UK does fully leave.

I think UK should remain a full member by the way. I'm not for leaving at all.
 
MadMike said:
Which outcome of all? They are 3 different ones listed there.
Click to expand...

All 3.

Customs Union solves nothing at all other than having the same external tariffs and the UK can't do their own trade deals but there would still need to be a border becuase of different standards and diffferent legislation/jurisdiction plus no freedom of movement.
GE or People Vote only solves it if the outcome is a remain government who cancels Brexit otherwise back to square one.
 
Ubik said:
As far as I know a customs union reduces the need for checks but doesn't eliminate them entirely. For that you need a harmony of standards between both sides, ie with the single market. Which is more along the lines of Labour's proposal, but I don't see that getting Tory support.
Click to expand...

Yes but Labour isn't proposing that although Corbyn's trying to pretend it sounds like that. In a customs union you cannot do your own deals and having the same rules, standards , single market etc you have to have the four freedoms.

And I'm pretty sure the Brexieters don't want any of this.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
All 3.

Customs Union solves nothing at all other than having the same external tariffs and the UK can't do their own trade deals but there would still need to be a border becuase of different standards and diffferent legislation/jurisdiction plus no freedom of movement.
GE or People Vote only solves it if the outcome is a remain government who cancels Brexit otherwise back to square one.
Click to expand...

How would you leave the EU?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
What do you expect to happen if one of the parties had a majority?
If Tories won ....

If Labour won....
Click to expand...

I think a ge could work but in basic terms either labour or the conservatives would need a massive majority to simply push legistlation through as they would both have a lot of backbench rebels.

Equally though the EU are not stupid... And perhaps they make any extension something like 2 years and they insist on the negotiations taking place on a cross party basis to ensure a majority?... Would be hard for many to object to that as all sides seem to now be critisising may for not doing that
 
The best compromise now is to accept a customs union and insert that into her current deal. The leave vote prioritised leaving the single market and ending freedom of movement, which we still would be honouring under Ken Clarke’s proposal. That way labour should then have no reason to reject it, unless the truth is they’re playing politics all along just to get a GE.
 
Steven Seagull said:
How would you leave the EU?
Click to expand...

Depends what you want. If you're willing to break the GFA you leave with no deal, that's the only way other than doing it in name only.

If you were another country that didn't have the additional problem of the Northern Irish border and didn't have the EUro (which is another complication the UK don't have) you could do it more easily but if you're prepared to suffer enormous consequences of not having free flowing goods etc.

UK have two of the biggest problems of all, its geographical position relying on its close proximity to European mainland and not having other non-EU countries close to it plus the GFA. As I said having the EUro would have complicated it even more.
 
sun_tzu said:
I think a ge could work but in basic terms either labour or the conservatives would need a massive majority to simply push legistlation through as they would both have a lot of backbench rebels.

Equally though the EU are not stupid... And perhaps they make any extension something like 2 years and they insist on the negotiations taking place on a cross party basis to ensure a majority?... Would be hard for many to object to that as all sides seem to now be critisising may for not doing that
Click to expand...

Yes , even the parties themselves are so divided and even the ERG is now divided.

I was wondering what both parties would propose for Brexit in their manifesto.
The Tories would surely go for a hard brexit.
Labour would probably faff about with Corbyn's idea which is a no goer and neither remainers or leavers would support it so a clear way for Tories even if they are divided.
 
SNP MP told to "go back to her own country" by some EDL/UKIP/BNP feckwit at the protest yesterday.
 
So what's the he likley timetable from here
Monday 1st... Parliament in control of commons... Non binding on the government ... Gut feel again no majority for any of the three options.
Tuesday 2nd... General kerfuffle and possibly a confidence motion called?
Wednesday 3rd... Somehow scraping through the confidence motion after An even more childish pmq's than normal
Thurdsay 4th... may tries her deal again and looses
Friday 5th... Parliment has emergency options about asking for a delay or going with no deal
Saturday + Sunday lots of froth but no real substance
Monday 8th ... Presuming extension was selected over no deal some indicative votes about how long an extension
Tuesday 9th... Presumably pm saying she will reluctantly ask for an extension but depending on the terms EU offer won't necessarily accept
Wednesday 10th... Pmq's setting new levels of childishness and then off to the EU summit to get their extension terms
Thursday 11th... Pm says terms not acceptable and she will be holding mv5 her deal or no deal on 12th
Friday 12th... May announces she will resign at midnight with either her deal passed or having left with no deal

Basically setting up the scenario she always seemed to want...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.