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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Apparently one of May's people outed him. She's desperate, dishonest and disgraceful.
 
There is a school of thought among business people that the damage has already been done, even if we end up staying in Europe.

Business has lost confidence in the UK and the largest employers are already looking for exit routes. Witness e.g. Honda, BMW/Mini

I don't know if this view has any merit, but it wouldn't surprise me.
 
Sassy Colin said:
There is a school of thought among business people that the damage has already been done, even if we end up staying in Europe.

Business has lost confidence in the UK and the largest employers are already looking for exit routes. Witness e.g. Honda, BMW/Mini

I don't know if this view has any merit, but it wouldn't surprise me.
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At this point we either put a plaster on the wound or keep letting it bleed and get worse.

The Conservatives - The Party of Business, yeah right
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Putting it another way.

Let's say for arguments sake.
1. Customs Union gets a majority.
2. PM accepts to adopt a Customs Union as a change to the political declaration
3. EU are open to the idea of the UK being in a customs union
4. It is added to the political declaration that during the transition period the UK and the EU will negotiate that the UK may join some kind of CU

what happens next
5. the UK now signs the WA and avoids no deal
or
5. No we still won't sign it because the backstop is still there and we're still a vassal state.

Answers on a postcard.
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Spot on, the CU does not solve the SM issue!
Its leave (no deal) or revoke A50, as it always has been!
 
Sassy Colin said:
There is a school of thought among business people that the damage has already been done, even if we end up staying in Europe.

Business has lost confidence in the UK and the largest employers are already looking for exit routes. Witness e.g. Honda, BMW/Mini

I don't know if this view has any merit, but it wouldn't surprise me.
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I'm of this view, however the only sane option is to put an end to the madness and work to rebuild things.

Saying "the damage is done, feck it" and leaving anyway is like trying to put out a fire with lighter fluid.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Putting it another way.

Let's say for arguments sake.
1. Customs Union gets a majority.
2. PM accepts to adopt a Customs Union as a change to the political declaration
3. EU are open to the idea of the UK being in a customs union
4. It is added to the political declaration that during the transition period the UK and the EU will negotiate that the UK may join some kind of CU

what happens next
5. the UK now signs the WA and avoids no deal
or
5. No we still won't sign it because the backstop is still there and we're still a vassal state.

Answers on a postcard.
Click to expand...

I think the ERG/DUP objections on the backstop are now secondary to be honest.

I think Labour will support a soft brexit even with the backstop issue but only on a confirmatory vote (CU vs Remain). It allows them to claim that brexit is supported whilst also giving remain a chance to overturn.
 
Rado_N said:
I'm of this view, however the only sane option is to put an end to the madness and work to rebuild things.

Saying "the damage is done, feck it" and leaving anyway is like trying to put out a fire with lighter fluid.
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If we were to somehow get article 50 revoked. It would be essential to put into law a 15/20 year lock on our membership just to give businesses confidence to invest here in the medium term.
 
An Opinium poll for the Observer reveals that May’s lead over Jeremy Corbyn on who would be the best prime minister has halved since last month, dropping from 15 points to 7 points. When Tory leadership hopefuls were pitted against Corbyn, Boris Johnson was the only one who had a lead over the Labour leader. A quarter of voters (25%) thought Johnson would be the best prime minister, compared with 24% for Corbyn.
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I see our very own Trump is on his way to running the country sigh. I can't understand how anyone could want him
 
Reiver said:
So they've finally accepted it - there will probably be zero to little in the way of consequences for the like of Gove and Johnson.

If Vote Leave broke spending rules is there any way of using this to say that the first EU referendum is invalid? The vote was close, extra money - illegal money - spent on campaigning for a Leave vote, could this have tipped the result in Leave's favour?
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The textbook reason for follow-up elections in a functional Democracy is exactly this.

Without a vote at regular intervals, Democracy is meaningless because there are no consequences to lying (proven about Leave), incompetence (proven about Leave), or illegality (proven about Leave).

The stupidest thing about Brexit is that it turned into a set-it-and-forget-it snapshot of public opinion on a particular day, with no room for buyer's remorse and no recourse to politicians doing the wrong thing.

I have more rights when I buy a box of Cornflakes than I did when I voted in the Referendum. And Asda has to deal with more oversight than Boris and his pals ever did. That's fecked up.
 
Apologies for posting a slightly off topic question here.

I have a prospective job opportunity in the UK and wanted to know is the pound expected to devalue as a currency after brexit happens? For example a couple of years ago 1 GBP was approximately 100 INR and now it is around 90 INR. Is it expected to fall further, and if so, what is the general estimate for the devaluation?
 
digitalnirvana said:
Apologies for posting a slightly off topic question here.

I have a prospective job opportunity in the UK and wanted to know is the pound expected to devalue as a currency after brexit happens? For example a couple of years ago 1 GBP was approximately 100 INR and now it is around 90 INR. Is it expected to fall further, and if so, what is the general estimate for the devaluation?
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It depends, but if there's a no-deal Brexit the pound will plummet. If there's a deal there'll be an initial bump-up. It's hard to assess what the long-term impact will be, really.
 
Stanley Road said:
If there is a GE lets hope that one party gets an overall majority.
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If
Cal? said:
I just think Corbyn will be awful as PM.
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I can second that.
The only hope for a Labour government is if the Tories elect Gove as leader.
However, even against Gove, Corbyn would still be difficult to elect as PM.

If they have any sense at all and ambition to become the government, Labour would get rid of Corbyn and replace him with someone far more electable. Difficult to say who because the talent pool is pretty much empty.
Sadly they have no such sense or ambition so they will stick with Jeremy and remain in opposition.

Incidentally, I see that the Tories have started a coordinated campaign to tell everyone that the Brexit shambles is all the fault of Labour and nothing to do with themselves...
 
So i am getting the feeling that people in here would vote tory, the party that brought you this glorious mess.

'I chose not to vote Labour, i chose something much worse'
 
Smores said:
I think the ERG/DUP objections on the backstop are now secondary to be honest.

I think Labour will support a soft brexit even with the backstop issue but only on a confirmatory vote (CU vs Remain). It allows them to claim that brexit is supported whilst also giving remain a chance to overturn.
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The only real reason to object to the WA was the backstop, all other avenues could have been explored in the transition period anyway.
ERG just want to leave. DUP I think is another matter. Labour who knows.

But a CU only is not a soft Brexit. You still have borders, no FoM, no SM. No attraction for foreign investors, no advantage for other countries to make agreement and it doesn't solve the problem of the Irish border.
 
digitalnirvana said:
Apologies for posting a slightly off topic question here.

I have a prospective job opportunity in the UK and wanted to know is the pound expected to devalue as a currency after brexit happens? For example a couple of years ago 1 GBP was approximately 100 INR and now it is around 90 INR. Is it expected to fall further, and if so, what is the general estimate for the devaluation?
Click to expand...

It depends what happens. If the UK leave with a hard Brexit the pound will lose a lot of value. If they go for a very soft Brexit which is not too far different to the current relationship the pound will probably improve.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The only real reason to object to the WA was the backstop, all other avenues could have been explored in the transition period anyway.
ERG just want to leave. DUP I think is another matter. Labour who knows.

But a CU only is not a soft Brexit. You still have borders, no FoM, no SM. No attraction for foreign investors, no advantage for other countries to make agreement and it doesn't solve the problem of the Irish border.
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That very much requires a trust in the government, only an idiot would sign off on brexit and give this goverment complete freedom to control the way forward. The way forward and the divorce have to be decided together, we made that principle into law.

There's obviously also the main reason, to stop brexit.
 
Smores said:
That very much requires a trust in the government, only an idiot would sign off on brexit and give this goverment complete freedom to control the way forward. The way forward and the divorce have to be decided together, we made that principle into law.

There's obviously also the main reason, to stop brexit.
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Yes, ok, to stop Brexit as well. Yes , I'm not disagreeing that the two go together, on the other hand who knows how the discussions on the future relationship will evolve which will also will depend on who is in charge of them.
Nothing is certain of what will happen when the second phase of talks start but somehow the Uk have got to get there. If not cancel it. No-one trusts anyone.
 
Buster15 said:
If


I can second that.
The only hope for a Labour government is if the Tories elect Gove as leader.
However, even against Gove, Corbyn would still be difficult to elect as PM.

If they have any sense at all and ambition to become the government, Labour would get rid of Corbyn and replace him with someone far more electable. Difficult to say who because the talent pool is pretty much empty.
Sadly they have no such sense or ambition so they will stick with Jeremy and remain in opposition.

Incidentally, I see that the Tories have started a coordinated campaign to tell everyone that the Brexit shambles is all the fault of Labour and nothing to do with themselves...
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Starmer.
 
I'm not sure;
a) why people on here think there will be a GE (soon) and;
b) what difference would it make to Brexit?

As far as a) is concerned I cannot see the Tory's opting for a GE, at least not until they get their new leader in place. Hence a no confidence vote would be needed, which is also unlikely to pass (as with all the other indicative ideas).
As far as b) is concerned it would be too late to avoid the EU's deadline of 12th April, and the no deal default would have occurred, or an approved extension/delay (and who* would ask for it?) would have triggered, then the UK's involvement in the EU elections would be assured and finally, what overall difference would it make to Brexit anyway?
(* can't see the Government asking the EU for an extension if it had just been humiliated in a no confidence vote...be like asking the hangman to pass you your own noose!)

Would the EU wait and grant an extension, thereby gambling on say a labour victory? If so would they then 'parley' with Jeremy, or with his party, many of whom hold different views to their leader, and on whose terms would they negotiate, e.g. would the backstop still be 'in play'?

Would the EU also gamble on a new house of Commons possibly losing it overall 'remain' advantage? An awful lot of people 'out in the sticks' and not just the people who voted last time, are getting pretty fed up and who knows how they would vote now? (Nigel, rubbing his hands in the background!) and the final gamble for the EU; would either of the major parties get an overall majority to enable them, unencumbered, to enact their own view of Brexit or of non-Brexit?

If it was the latter, i.e. with the commons losing its current overall remain majority, then Brexit is much more likely even after all the wait and the smooching of past politicos, with the dreaded 'accidental no deal' becoming a fact and by 'no accident'.
 
Maticmaker said:
a) why people on here think there will be a GE (soon) and;
b) what difference would it make to Brexit?
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A) May hinted at it last week

B) It will make no difference but May doesn't have the support of her party or dup to get and deal through. So there isn't much point in staying around.
 
Watched a segment on "March to Leave". I can see Jon Snow's point. The lack of diversity is striking. I would bet you could predict pretty accurately who joined the march with just age, gender and race.
 
RedChip said:
Watched a segment on "March to Leave". I can see Jon Snow's point. The lack of diversity is striking. I would bet you could predict pretty accurately who joined the march with just age, gender and race.
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Yeah whenever i look at brexit comments on twitter 95% are men with a flag or england shirt in their picture. Can tell most of them a mile off
 
Two “soft Brexit” plans have gained significant support from MPs since last Wednesday’s vote. Ken Clarke, the former chancellor, has been pushing a plan that would require a full customs union with the EU negotiated as part of the Brexit package. This option was defeated last week by a majority of only eight votes.

The “common market 2.0” plan, under which Britain would stay in the customs union and the single market, lost by 95 votes, but has since been altered.

Hopes that Labour might support the common market 2.0 plan faded on Sunday after Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, said it was Labour’s policy to be close to the single market, but not in it. “Our reservation about being in the single market is that we would have to accept things as they currently are in relation to immigration,” she said. “We can’t pretend that the referendum, part of the debate, wasn’t about immigration.”

Tories and Labour determined to break the GFA.
 
https://www.thejournal.ie/theresa-may-eastenders-4559197-Apr2019/

UK PRIME MINISTER Theresa May is set to make a stunning appearance on Eastenders tonight, as she makes a last-ditch attempt to save her Brexit deal.

The beleaguered Prime Minister has faced a string of crushing blows, and will hope that she receives a better reception from the patrons of the Queen Vic – and the general public – on tonight’s special live edition of the soap opera.

...
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