SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Di Maria's angel said:
Its almost past the point of what i want to happen. With the Canary Wharf infection, I imagine several more were infected. I hope not but we could be on the verge of hundreds of infections in London alone.

Phase 1 of the approach was "contain" - how the feck do you expect to contain if you're allowing the virus passage into the country? Yeah, thats one of the worst "battle plans" in history.

Right now, I'd recommend businesses to start encouraging as many people as possible to work from home. Not sure if you be on the TFL but it is packed with people and is a breeding ground for a massive outbreak. I also advocated closing Universities and Colleges, and even possibly even have kids over the age of 16 study from home, too.
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Unless they are withholding information on the virus I just don't see this as a rational response, they are openly saying they expect the majority to ultimately get this, so I'd like to think they know this happening isn't going to wipe half the population, I'm in the school of thought that thinks that there is a certain delaying tactic going on until the vaccine is place, but we can't bring the worlds economy down until it is.

I could be miles off, but I'm not going in hysteria over this, I think we should be vigilant, and more hygienic for sure, but that's it.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
I'm suggesting the lack ot government action will result in panic.

And of course people are now panicking - everyone here in London is starting to worry now. Had they began closures, as I suggested in that same post, things like deep cleans would seem normal in these situations.
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I don’t know where in London you are but I don’t see any panic. Or worry. At all.

I disagree. I don’t think the government‘s actions are leading to panic.
 
C'est Moi Cantona said:
Unless they are withholding information on the virus I just don't see this as a rational response, they are openly saying they expect the majority to ultimately get this, so I'd like to think they know this happening isn't going to wipe half the population, I'm in the school of thought that thinks that there is a certain delaying tactic going on until the vaccine is place, but we can't bring the worlds economy down until it is.

I could be miles off, but I'm not going in hysteria over this, I think we should be vigilant, and more hygienic for sure, but that's it.
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Fair enough. To be honest, I'm not panicking and neither am I too worried about myself. Its others I'm worried about.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
I don’t know where in London you are but I don’t see any panic. Or worry. At all.

I disagree. I don’t think the government‘s actions are leading to panic.
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At the end of the day, we all want to same thing. I'm not a politician so these are just my views, whether they're right or wrong, time will tell.
 
Something slightly reassuring:

There are 11 million residents in Wuhan where the virus started, an area with a very tight population density of 1200 people per square kilometer (for reference, the UK is 259 per square kilometer) - although the major cities are much higher.

I don't know how many of China's 80,000 infected are from Wuhan itself, but even if it was all of them (which it isn't) - that would still mean only 0.8% of the population there got it thus far.

Since we're far less densely packed in the western world* one would hope our numbers would remain lower.

This isn't scientific, just pointing out some figures. Of course, the Wuhan figures will continue to go up, but I believe I read somewhere today that Covid-19 may well have peaked in China.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
At the end of the day, we all want to same thing. I'm not a politician so these are just my views, whether they're right or wrong, time will tell.
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I think you should measure your messaging. No need to be alarmist. You’ve clearly picked up a desire to stay close to this. But being overly dramatic is easily done.
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
Something slightly reassuring:

There are 11 million residents in Wuhan where the virus started, an area with a very tight population density of 1200 people per square kilometer (for reference, the UK is 259 per square kilometer) - although the major cities are much higher.

I don't know how many of China's 80,000 infected are from Wuhan itself, but even if it was all of them (which it isn't) - that would still mean only 0.8% of the population there got it thus far.

Since we're far less densely packed in the western world* one would hope our numbers would remain lower.

This isn't scientific, just pointing out some figures. Of course, the Wuhan figures will continue to go up, but I believe I read somewhere today that Covid-19 may well have peaked in China.
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Does look like the case. However, it took an entire country lockdown to limit the infections to just 80,000 (for now).
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
Something slightly reassuring:

There are 11 million residents in Wuhan where the virus started, an area with a very tight population density of 1200 people per square kilometer (for reference, the UK is 259 per square kilometer) - although the major cities are much higher.

I don't know how many of China's 80,000 infected are from Wuhan itself, but even if it was all of them (which it isn't) - that would still mean only 0.8% of the population there got it thus far.

Since we're far less densely packed in the western world* one would hope our numbers would remain lower.

This isn't scientific, just pointing out some figures. Of course, the Wuhan figures will continue to go up, but I believe I read somewhere today that Covid-19 may well have peaked in China.
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The china numbers are not real imo . with 52k recovered from 80k total cases and no new daily cases you would think that things are getting back to normal , workplaces online . but there is gps data , coal consumption data , pollution measurements that say the whole country is still offline since january
 
botond said:
The china numbers are not real imo . with 52k recovered from 80k total cases and no new daily cases you would think that things are getting back to normal , workplaces online . but there is gps data , coal consumption data , pollution measurements that say the whole country is still offline since january
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I didn't consider that. It will be interesting to see the peak and recovery metrics for countries with more transparent governments in due course.
 
botond said:
The china numbers are not real imo . with 52k recovered from 80k total cases and no new daily cases you would think that things are getting back to normal , workplaces online . but there is gps data , coal consumption data , pollution measurements that say the whole country is still offline since january
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You can’t throw away all this hard work by going back to normal with 30,000 infected people!

China will have this eradicated in months we will still be picking the pieces up in Europe till the end of the year
 
horsechoker said:
100k is dramatic.

There's been 150 deaths in Italy and if you times it by 12 you'll get 1800.

You'd need 8333 deaths a month to reach 100k in a year. If the virus kills 3. 5% of sufferers you would need 235,000 sufferers. China has reached 80k but has slowed down its growth.
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65 million times 25% of the uk population times 1% fatality rate is 125k

Spanish flu killed 225k+ plus in the UK.

Probably I'm being ridiculously pessimistic, but it seems obvious that we aren't getting this thing under control
 
rcoobc said:
65 million times 25% of the uk population times 1% fatality rate is 125k

Spanish flu killed 225k+ plus in the UK.

Probably I'm being ridiculously pessimistic, but it seems obvious that we aren't getting this thing under control
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Spanish flu comparison is also pointless the world of science and health has evolved so much its a different world now
 
Bosws87 said:
Spanish flu comparison is also pointless the world of science and health has evolved so much its a different world now
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Not really. It's important to note, but all comparisons are useful.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
It’s just a bit shitty. These are people.
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Ehh, I can’t agree with that, morbid maybe but not shitty. In any situation like this involving some new virus strain, it’s natural that some people’s reaction to it will be to speculate on how much damage it will do. I don’t really see the disrespect that you’re assigning to it.
 
Bosws87 said:
You can’t throw away all this hard work by going back to normal with 30,000 infected people!
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from what i have seen , the gov. is putting real pressure on factories to get online as they need to consume a quota of power weakly so some are running the lines empty. some tried to reopen but people did not show up or new cases spread and had to be shut down .
 
Cascarino said:
Ehh, I can’t agree with that, morbid maybe but not shitty. In any situation like this involving some new virus strain, it’s natural that some people’s reaction to it will be to speculate on how much damage it will do. I don’t really see the disrespect that you’re assigning to it.
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Making a game of it as you did is extremely shitty, Pseud is right to pull you up.
 
711 said:
Your deleting it is proof enough you know you were wrong, but now you've come across as a coward as well.
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I haven’t deleted anything :lol:
You’ve called me extremely shitty, and a coward. I really hope that when a mod confirms to you I haven’t deleted anything, you’ll at least admit you made a mistake.
 
Cascarino said:
I haven’t deleted anything :lol:
You’ve called me extremely shitty, and a coward. I really hope that when a mod confirms to you I haven’t deleted anything, you’ll at least admit you made a mistake.
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Oh feck, I've got the wrong geezer! You're a hundred percent right and I'm wrong.

edit: having been so wrong I'd best not go after the right guy now, I'd probably get that wrong too. Apologies Casc.
 
Just imagine if this virus had been commonly spread by contact with your legs. You would have every chump in the world being reminded to "wash your legs".
 
Cascarino said:
Ehh, I can’t agree with that, morbid maybe but not shitty. In any situation like this involving some new virus strain, it’s natural that some people’s reaction to it will be to speculate on how much damage it will do. I don’t really see the disrespect that you’re assigning to it.
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It’s just not nice. You framed it badly. There’s no need for it.
 
711 said:
Oh feck, I've got the wrong geezer! You're a hundred percent right and I'm wrong.

edit: having been so wrong I'd best not go after the right guy now, I'd probably get that wrong too. Apologies Casc.
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It’s all good mate, I thought that mistaken identity was the case. I probably could have rectified the situation earlier haha.

regarding the original post, I genuinely didn’t see it as making a game of it (though it could have been worded better). This is mainly because I’ve been asked by a lot of (often scared) people about how deadly this will end up being (despite it not being my field at all). I think a lot of people are scared and want to know what to expect, how big of an issue this will turn out to be.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
It’s just not nice. You framed it badly. There’s no need for it.
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I mentioned it in the post above, but I’ve been asked countless times about how serious I think this will turn out to be, how many people will lose their lives to it. It’s not out of disrespect they’re asking, it’s because they’re worried. Maybe that wasn’t the poster’s intent, but I’ve had enough people asking me in daily life without any nefarious agenda that I’m willing to give the poster the benefit of the doubt. But yeah that’ll be my last post on it as the thread isn’t about me
 
Cascarino said:
I mentioned it in the post above, but I’ve been asked countless times about how serious I think this will turn out to be, how many people will lose their lives to it. It’s not out of disrespect they’re asking, it’s because they’re worried. Maybe that wasn’t the poster’s intent, but I’ve had enough people asking me in daily life without any nefarious agenda that I’m willing to give the poster the benefit of the doubt. But yeah that’ll be my last post on it as the thread isn’t about me
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Guessing how many humans will die is Callous.

People are asking how bad it will be. Not guessing a death total.

Your post was callous and wrong. I didn’t get dramatic. I just asked you not to do it.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
Guessing how many humans will die is Callous.

People are asking how bad it will be. Not guessing a death total.

Your post was callous and wrong. I didn’t get dramatic. I just asked you not to do it.
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Basically the same as the celebrity death pool isn't it?
 
I keep hearing that the morbidity rate is not 3-5% because undiagnosed people who don't have severe enough symptoms aren't counted. They use this to then say the real rate is likely below 1%. They then go on to say it is therefore comparable to flu which has something like a 0.1-0.3% morbidity rate. Question for anyone who knows. Do all the flu stats miraculously count those who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic?
 
senorgregster said:
I keep hearing that the morbidity rate is not 3-5% because undiagnosed people who don't have severe enough symptoms aren't counted. They use this to then say the real rate is likely below 1%. They then go on to say it is therefore comparable to flu which has something like a 0.1-0.3% morbidity rate. Question for anyone who knows. Do all the flu stats miraculously count those who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic?
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I believe so because those stats are estimates, it only makes sense to include them.

I don't understand why flu keeps getting mixed into this. Even WHO keeps mentioning flu in the middle of their coronaviruses reports as if they're adressing a bunch of 6th graders instead of professionalized health authorities around the world. It just adds so much confusion in the minds of people, might as well compare it with gonorrhea.
 
senorgregster said:
I keep hearing that the morbidity rate is not 3-5% because undiagnosed people who don't have severe enough symptoms aren't counted. They use this to then say the real rate is likely below 1%. They then go on to say it is therefore comparable to flu which has something like a 0.1-0.3% morbidity rate. Question for anyone who knows. Do all the flu stats miraculously count those who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic?
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Not sure how it works for the Flu but Covid is definitely under 1%. So many cases are flying under the radar. You only have to look at Korea who are the testing kings to see what it should look like.

if more effort went in to testing around the world, we’d be in a much better position.Way more cases, sure, but at least those people would know they have it and be quarantined.
 
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