What was the death rate on that cruise ship? That seems to be the only 'cohort' data anyone's had. Everything else seems biased in some direction in the denominator.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
That's from confirmed cases. Given that people have gotten it simply from having a lay-over in Milano, I'm certain the real number of infected is several times higher than the reported figures.
As I mentioned earlier as well, the death rate in China in people diagnosed after February 1st is 0.7%, and the death rate in South Korea has been pretty steady at 0.6%.
706 infected, 6 dead I believe, so just shy of 1%.
So the TTC (subway) here in Toronto just announced that someone who tested positive for Covid-19 used the subway on Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday this week. If that's during rush hour they could've spread it to several other people too.
I take that subway every morning & evening and did on all of those days...still the chances of being in the same carriage are slim.
I take that subway every morning & evening and did on all of those days...still the chances of being in the same carriage are slim.
https://donottouchyourface.com/
For work next week. You can thank me for saving everyone’s lives later. doing the lords work
For work next week. You can thank me for saving everyone’s lives later. doing the lords work
In Italy the virus is doing a very good job of working its way through the elderly population, all of whom love to be outside drinking coffee, chatting etc. It's not just deaths, for some reason it isn't showing up in younger people as much.
The cases in my town are 62, 69, 73, 73, 84, and 89 years old.
From what I've heard, they're focusing testing on people with more serious symptoms, so the young people are probably under-represented in the testing sample.
Decent video from Vox
When you don’t make a lot of money, and you need the food budget to stretch, pasta and fish fingers are cheap, avocados aren’t.
Still to be established. Current figures are: 696 infected | 478 active | 34 serious/critical | 6 dead | 212 recovered
How old is the general Italian population? The rest of Europe is having 1 or 2 deaths a day and here they are with 40+ deaths a day! Even South Korea and Iran aren't that bad!
BTW if anybody likes to geek out like me on this subject (because I love disease epidemiology), this is a great website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro
BTW if anybody likes to geek out like me on this subject (because I love disease epidemiology), this is a great website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro
Those numbers ended up being quite acceptable. 700 of the 3000+ people is around 20% which shows that limited movement is the best form of containment.
Trouble is whether it’s fish fingers or advocado’s its only the folks with money that can afford to stockpile. The poor live day to day. Stockpiling of whatever type affects the lower income group disproportionately.
Also if they are thinking that they may have to self quarantine for several weeks, “fresh” stuff is going to go off quicker
With those new trains does it really matter?
The news segment said it's the men that were affected by the hiv epidemic.
Tell ya what, there’s some awfully thick people on my Facebook with comments such as “132 an
Is your question basically:
why are the people who are worried about isolating themselves for weeks buying long lasting produce?
Is your question basically:
why are the people who are worried about isolating themselves for weeks buying long lasting produce?
That is pretty horrid. I know the death rate is low but the serious/critical cases would presumably have some lasting effects, and that's 5% of the population with the outcome TBD on 70%.
Just had an email from Fulham training ground in Malden that our Monday night adult (seniors) fitness evenings are cancelled. No reason given. Looks like football clubs are beginning the lock down.
Eating healthily is more often than not cheaper. You can buy loads of veg for the cost of a few prepacked things.
Oh I'm sure they'll still find a way to have delays regularly. Now they'll probably use this virus as an excuse.
Haven't seen many people in masks so far.
Italy has the second highest percentage of over 65's, after Japan, and the third highest average age amongst major nations. They are also far more socially active than most and smoke like chimneys, especially when they were younger.
Italy also has about 50 times more cases than the rest of Europe and is a couple of weeks further into the outbreak, there is a lag in death rates.
Quite old. Saw a Paul Graham tweet which also had an incredible stat -- Nigeria's median age is 20 vs Europe's 42.
I watched a BBC segment on youtube that said 1 in 5 South African men under 50 have AIDS and they are the highest risk for this virus. I really couldn't believe those numbers.
Surely that can't be right? That's insane.
Also, if that's correct, I wonder what the percentage of those 1 in 5 are black vs white...
On that 3.4% figure:
What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.
Deaths are highest in the elderly, with very low rates among younger people, although medical staff who treat patients and get exposed to a lot of virus are thought to be more at risk. But even among the over-80s, 90% will recover.
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Thank you! I often buy reduced fruit and veg if I’m eating that day or go to farms and get stuff stupidly cheap - I bought a 2KG bag of wonky veg from the local farm for £1:10p. It’ll do me and the Mrs for dinners all week, if not longer.
Carrots and potatoes are though, so are parsnips, bananas and apples.
One of the potential problems is that due to how fast it is spreading, if it overloads hospital systems, that will drive mortality rates up simply because people get locked out of medical access.
You'd almost expect the UKs mortality rate to be lower as they'll be a greater share of the elderly/vulnerable isolating themselves and prepared hopefully.
These early figures probably won't be too representative though as it'll initially spread quicker through younger crowds.
These early figures probably won't be too representative though as it'll initially spread quicker through younger crowds.
how many of the poorest in society do you think have the means to get to their local farms?
Obviously depends on their location, but loads of supermarkets sell wonky veg now, and large bags too.
Veg in general is very cheap
Yeah, many people could save a ton of money if they could buy in bulk but to do that you need a car. When you don't have a car you spend more time going shopping and you're limited on where you can go.
It's not fear mongering, it's genuine concern based on reality.
There's a 36 year old marathon runner in Intensive Care in Italy, been there for a week. This guy is also an amateur footballer.
This virus has killed many Doctors and Healthcare workers in their 40s and 50s - these people are very unlikely to be smokers and / or obese.
I understand that these are troubling facts, but lashing out at people doesn't change them.
It’s not just farms that do wonky veg for cheap - Morrison’s, Asda and Aldi have started doing it too. Also how many are actually bothered to see if they have a local farm? All of these apparently poor people filling full trollies are getting to Tesco, don’t see how that’s any different? As previously said, a pack of 20 fish fingers doesn’t go as far and costs more than a lot of fruit and veg. It’s a complete myth that frozen food is cheaper. it also costs more in electric or gas to cook!
Anyway totally didn’t intend for this to be a food derailment, just an observation from my local (empty) supermarket
I don't know about the case of the marathon runner, but the others have significant extenuating circumstances, they're in constant contact with the virus.
Generally speaking younger people aren't coming to any harm by catching it on the tube or wherever.
It will be interesting to hear the story behind the marathon runner though of course.
Trouble is whether it’s fish fingers or advocado’s its only the folks with money that can afford to stockpile. The poor live day to day. Stockpiling of whatever type affects the lower income group disproportionately.
I think you’re mistaken about the day to day thing. Do that and you’re screwed, whereas if you’re used to living poor you know exactly what to buy to last the month. If you’re poor and struggling, there’s a good chance your cupboards have plenty of cheap noodles in them. Agree about the stockpiling point.
Good point,
Carrots and potatoes are good on a budget, apples are good for you but not great for a budget, especially when you haven’t got the means to make trips to the store easily.
Marathon runners are not healthy people. There can be a big difference between being fit and healthy.
Dude, every time I see your name in this thread it's more doomsday stuff. I'm not for a moment saying this situation isn't dangerous - I spent 7 years working for a microbiology firm, we carried out assays for genetic and infectious diseases and I remember the panic surrounding bird flu and later, Swine Flu - one of the red top tabloids printing a headline saying 500k WILL DIE in the United Kingdom.
Now while there's no denying Coronavirus presents a potentially far more serious and dangerous prospect than those two scenarios, you're not looking at it in a balanced fashion - and the last thing we need right now is panic, panic never helps anybody. Only a calm and rational approach to the problem brings progress. Repeating the same worst case stuff might start to lead people to believe you're relishing being the bearer of bad news.
Yes there are some young and otherwise healthy people affected, but if any reasonable person looks at the data, it becomes overwhelmingly apparent that such cases are - at present - in the absolute minority.
There was a tweet from one doctor in Italy with an anecdotal evidence of a spike in younger people presenting at the ICU. Note: One doctor, anecdotal - not solid, established metrics. If it turns out to be a trend, we'll react accordingly, but for now, the evidence remains unchanged: Most of the victims are elderly, prior ill, or immunocompromised.
A colleague just mentioned they never have the new trains (the single carriage ones) on line one, so that's a bit of a relief.
But if there's one guy there are probably more, if bit then definitely now.
Seems we got our first case with travel ties to Italy now, too.