SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Nogbadthebad]

Don't phone 111 until your too ill to pick up the phone.

What a strategy.

Also, note, 'we don't need to know you are ill'

That is insane. If you don't track infections from people who recover, how do you ever plan on actually fighting it?

 

[Sandyman]

But it doesn't seem to take into account the behavioural/economic factors of shutting things down for 3+ months. It's probably impossible to do for more than 4-6 weeks, so you should do it at the peak.

We are not talking about total lockdown right now but measure that could limit the spread. Closing educational institutions, cancelling sporting and cultural events etc. Will this ensure no else gets the virus? No. But will it help reduce the chances of more people getting it? Hell yeah.
By acting now, you ensure the peak does not spike and is more manageable.

 

[The Firestarter]

Italy confirmed cases upto 15,113 from 12,462 yesterday. Now over 1,000 deaths.

but the increase w.r.t prev day is less ?

 

[Maagge]

Fair play to that one woman with a full trolley of water bottles.

In a country that has safe drinking water..

She's just keeping the economy going, good on her.

I think that's important but in a slightly different way. As he's so far away from an election he can just do what's right whereas other countries need to take more actions to "appear" in control.

Denmark's closing down, and we're three years away from an election.

 

[Grinner]

Italy confirmed cases upto 15,113 from 12,462 yesterday. Now over 1,000 deaths.

fecking hell...they are losing the battle

 

[TMDaines]

This is one of the dumbest posts I've read in this thread. The reason for social quarantine for two weeks or a month is not to make it go away but to slow the progression of person to person transmission so that the hospitals are not overwhelmed at once by receiving patients over their capacity which is what will happen if the number of infections rises exponentially as it is now.

No one thinks they'll be safe by isolating for a month but if I were to inevitably get infected, I'd much rather it be 3 months from now than today just because there will be advances in testing and understanding of the illness. Someone might even succeed at repurposing some old flu or anti-inflammatory medication to reduce symptoms by then.

You are confusing social distancing, self isolation and the quarantine of large populations.

Your treatment and outcomes will be largely determined by your age and health. If you get complications, you don’t want it at the peak.

 

[esmufc07]

We're going in this direction. Best thing for the UK to do is to start our own social distancing. Don't NEED to go out, don't go out. Keep it at the minimum.

@Niall and @Damien have set up a RedCafe fund for posters who need to take time off work.

 

[TMDaines]

And that means we are still at the flat part of the chart. Imagine the hysteria soon.

 

[Smores]

It is not the Tories, it ist the scientists too, do you see the two guys flanking Boris? They tell exactly the same thing.

We're all very aware of who they are by now mate. They're advice is in the context of the government's strategy, that's what they're appointed to do.

The only actual strategy so far that's working is strict measures but let's ignore that because you see a spokesperson repeat the word science. If you've seen this research yourself and have been won over fine but can you link me to it?

 

[jojojo]

Did he just say 95% either side of peak will get infected?! Feck me.

Of the ones who'll get infected, most will get it in within a few weeks of the peak.

 

[PepsiCola]

You are confusing social distancing, self isolation and the quarantine of large populations.

Your treatment and outcomes will be largely determined by your age and health. If you get complications, you don’t want it at the peak.

And the point of immediate social isolation is to attenuate the rise in occurrence to avoid a peak.

 

[sullydnl]

Don't phone 111 until your too ill to pick up the phone.

What a strategy.

Also, note, 'we don't need to know you are ill'

That is insane. If you don't track infections from people who recover, how do you ever plan on actually fighting it?

You fight it by having anyone with symptoms stay at home so it doesn't spread, treating the worst of them. I'm not sure what the benefit in spending resources identifying each and every case would be when a) there'll be an overwhelming amount of them and b) the treatment for the majority of those will consist of them doing what they've already been told to do and stay at home.

 

[Tucholsky]

She's just keeping the economy going, good on her.

Denmark's closing down, and we're three years away from an election.

Different stages of the the outbreak.
UK has at the moment 8.7 cases per 1million of population.
Denmark has nearly 120 cases per 1million of poulation

Different stages mean different measures.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

You are confusing social distancing, self isolation and the quarantine of large populations.

Your treatment and outcomes will be largely determined by your age and health. If you get complications, you don’t want it at the peak.

I'm not sure what you mean by the peak. The whole idea of social distancing is to ensure that there is no such "peak" and the rate of new infections stays flat so that the hospitals and doctors can cope.

Your outcome might be influenced by age and health but the people you infect without social distancing could still be vulnerable because of it.

Think of it as this.

Out of 100, at the current rate, 70 people could get infected tomorrow and if the hospital capacity is 20, then they're fecked.
Instead if the same 100 people get infected at the rate of 10 per week, then the hospitals can treat and discharge the first 20 in two weeks before the next 20 start hitting the hospital beds. That's the logic behind social distancing and slowing the transmission.

 

[TMDaines]

And the point of immediate social isolation is to attenuate the rise in occurrence to avoid a peak.

And how long do you think closing schools and having people away from non-medical, non-utility, and non-emergency services jobs is sustainable for? A fortnight, 4 weeks? We’re not going to be close to the peak then.

 

[izec]

Does seem Germany in particular is on the same page as UK. Just localized school closures like UK, football matches going ahead, no border closures (Germany actually stating it won't help) Merkel saying most of you will get it.

Germany is everyone's good guy go to country doing the same.

even worse, since their numbers are higher. They are the UK a couple of days ahead.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

@Niall and @Damien have set up a RedCafe fund for posters who need to take time off work.

I work an office job, and drive to work. I'm fairly safe for now. But I've limited going out when I don't need to.

 

[TMDaines]

I'm not sure what you mean by the peak. The whole idea of social distancing is to ensure that there is no such "peak" and the rate of new infections stays flat so that the hospitals and doctors can cope.

Your outcome might be influenced by age and health but the people you infect without social distancing could still be vulnerable because of it.

Think of it as this.

Out of 100, at the current rate, 70 people could get infected tomorrow and if the hospital capacity is 20, then they're fecked.
Instead if the same 100 people get infected at the rate of 10 per week, then the hospitals can treat and discharge the first 20 in two weeks before the next 20 start hitting the hospital beds. That's the logic behind social distancing and slowing the transmission.

You still have a peak flattening the curve. We are still right at the beginning of this. The numbers grow massively from here in any best case scenario. A significant proportion of the population is getting COVID-19. That isn’t going to be avoided.

 

[kouroux]

Donovan Mitchell from the Utah Jazz alongside Gobert as tested positive for the corona

 

[Fiskey]

I'm not sure what you mean by the peak. The whole idea of social distancing is to ensure that there is no such "peak" and the rate of new infections stays flat so that the hospitals and doctors can cope.

Your outcome might be influenced by age and health but the people you infect without social distancing could still be vulnerable because of it.

Think of it as this.

Out of 100, at the current rate, 70 people could get infected tomorrow and if the hospital capacity is 20, then they're fecked.
Instead if the same 100 people get infected at the rate of 10 per week, then the hospitals can treat and discharge the first 20 in two weeks before the next 20 start hitting the hospital beds. That's the logic behind social distancing and slowing the transmission.

But we're not yet at the point where this would be valuable, as each time you implement measurers they become less effective, and they also become less effective the longer they last. Timing is crucial.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Is there a reason why they’re saying self-isolate 7 days not 14 days?

Economy. Same as always with Tories. Science, GLOBALLY, has stated that 14 days is needed for even moderately successful quarantine.

It's solely about money for them. This is what people need to accept.

Your life or Healthcare means feck all to the people who (currently) take your taxes, all that matters is that you keep slogging away.

These are the same people who've dismantled the NHS.

By doing what? Telling people to wash their hands?

And singing Happy Birthday to yourself - twice

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

You still have a peak flattening the curve. We are still right at the beginning of this. The numbers grow massively from here in any best case scenario. A significant majority of the population is getting COVID-19. That isn’t going to be avoided.

The reported numbers are going to rise simply because more people will get tested. That's inevitable. They can't reduce the cases that are already out there but by keeping people at home, they can slow down person to person transmission so that they can get a grip on identifying those that are infected, quarantining them and reducing the exposure before the social distancing inevitably ends. You're right that this is not sustainable but the idea isn't to keep this going indefinitely but to make a dent large enough to get a grip on things.

 

[spiriticon]

Let's hope 'the science' and all their base case modelling takes into account the unpredictable nature of viruses.

If not, Boris has a lot of blood on his hands.

 

[Kopral Jono]

It seems to me that Boris is taking a leaf out of Singapore's book with this 'marathon and not a sprint' approach. Sensible.

 

[TMDaines]

And singing Happy Birthday to yourself - twice

Are you trying to suggest that good hygiene is not worth the effort to limit this?

 

[Steven Seagull]

I’m pretty happy with that. The peak is over 10 weeks away. I’m not sure what people are expecting to happen. Not everyone can afford to sit at home on redcafe micro analysing the virus news every day until summer

The 7 day isolation is weird though. Why not just say 14

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

But we're not yet at the point where this would be valuable, as each time you implement measurers they become less effective, and they also become less effective the longer they last. Timing is crucial.

I don't understand this. If you look at the number of new cases, for example in Denmark it rose up by 10x yesterday, indicating that it is going to be exponential growth and unmanageable if it is allowed to go on.

 

[TMDaines]

The reported numbers are going to rise simply because more people will get tested. That's inevitable. They can't reduce the cases that are already out there but by keeping people at home, they can slow down person to person transmission so that they can get a grip on identifying those that are infected, quarantining them and reducing the exposure before the social distancing inevitably ends. You're right that this is not sustainable but the idea isn't to keep this going indefinitely but to make a dent large enough to get a grip on things.

I don’t think we are disagreeing.

I don't understand this. If you look at the number of new cases, for example in Denmark it rose up by 10x yesterday, indicating that it is going to be exponential growth and unmanageable if it is allowed to go on.

That’s going to the be the case even if we put the country on lockdown tomorrow for six weeks. Then a population wide quarantine would be no longer sustainable when the situation is far, far worse.

 

[Drawfull]

Of the ones who'll get infected, most will get it in within a few weeks of the peak.

Thanks, I've worked it out now! Was a bit mesmerised by the conference.

 

[VeevaVee]

Don't phone 111 until your too ill to pick up the phone.

What a strategy.

Also, note, 'we don't need to know you are ill'

That is insane. If you don't track infections from people who recover, how do you ever plan on actually fighting it?

Ridiculous if that's the case. There should be a number specifically for simply reporting feeling unwell.

 

[balaks]

Provide them with free daycare facilities / pay for child minding for them.

It's not rocket science.

Who does the daycare?

 

[balaks]

Provide them with free daycare facilities / pay for child minding for them.

It's not rocket science.

Who does the daycare?

 

[PepsiCola]

And how long do you think closing schools and having people away from non-medical, non-utility, and non-emergency services jobs is sustainable for? A fortnight, 4 weeks? We’re not going to be close to the peak then.

It's not about being "close" to the peak.

It's about outright avoiding the peak so we dont overwhelm the healthcare services.

 

[Fiskey]

I don't understand this. If you look at the number of new cases, for example in Denmark it rose up by 10x yesterday, indicating that it is going to be exponential growth and unmanageable if it is allowed to go on.

We will get exponential growth at some point, if we quarantine now we reduce our ability to do it later when it could be more valuable.

 

[TheGame]

Donovan Mitchell from the Utah Jazz alongside Gobert as tested positive for the corona

Is he that pillock who spread it on the reporters mics?

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

I don’t think we are disagreeing.

We're not disagreeing on the action needed but we disagree on the timeline. You keep mentioning that this peak is three months away but the peak was clearly yesterday in Denmark, two weeks ago in Italy and not too far elsewhere in Europe. That is exactly why there are drastic measures being taken.

 

[spiriticon]

Only in the UK is ignoring a government quarantine order an actual thing considered by the government itself.

Feck me.

 

[Stactix]

It's not about being "close" to the peak.

It's about outright avoiding the peak so we dont overwhelm the healthcare services.

Those same healthcare services that are already overwhelmed due to ohwait, tories austerity toy.

Question I'd like to ask is what extra resources have the NHS been given?
Double the number of critical care units? Because we'll fecking need it.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

We will get exponential growth at some point, if we quarantine now we reduce our ability to do it later when it could be more valuable.

That point was yesterday in Denmark, two weeks ago in Italy and its likely not too far away in the UK, hoping they are even testing at the same rate. One thing they've done here in Denmark is be efficient at testing.

 

[kouroux]

Is he that pillock who spread it on the reporters mics?

Gobert is, no way to know who got infected first and did the rest but that's pointless, in times like these, you cannot joke about this.