SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

The scientist who led research that is reported to have influenced changes to the UK's coronavirus policy is self-isolating after developing symptoms of Covid-19.

Prof Neil Ferguson, from London's Imperial College, led a group of experts modelling the effect of policies introduced to curb the virus.



Prof Ferguson told BBC Radio 4's Today programme he developed symptoms on Tuesday and a high fever overnight - hours after attending a Downing Street press conference.

"Central London is really the kind of hotspot in the UK at the moment... still in Westminster, there is a lot," he said.

"It is becoming quite a widespread community infection especially in hotspots like London," he added.
 
For those who want to follow the situation in PT with high detail, there's a doctor who's an expert in mathematical models of infection diseases and created a Github project and (he works for the government as a consultant). You need to translate the page to english, though.

Official stats:
https://aperaltasantos.github.io/covid_pt/

If you had translated the website to english, you have some options on the upper bar
The Vig. Epidemiology shows official data
The Evolution forecast shows official predicted data and even teaches you how to make a "rough" forecast calculation.
The Reply SNS 24 shows how well does the public sns call center is handling with this (not too well, since 57.9% of the calls were not answered due to lack of workforce)

For those interested to create something similar with their own country/city/district data, instructions are here:

https://github.com/aperaltasantos/covid_monitor_template
 
Drawfull said:
Link to the second test? Gov were pretty explicit a couple of days ago that no such test exists, yet.
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Yeah Vallance was saying you'd need a blood test but perhaps it's a matter of reliability. To be honest the UK seem a bit over the place on testing overall.
 
senorgregster said:
I'm curious about a couple of things.

For those people who typically don't get flu jabs, assuming one is safe and effective, will you be getting the covid jab? Looking at death rates by flu, if available, will you now get flu jabs?

For a covid vaccine, what would be a suitable price? This one is a very complex question and differ in each country due to who ultimately pays. I fear that this could drive distribution time. What happens if say a German company develops the vaccine. Assume Germans will be first in line. Who is next? EU? Highest bidder? Now switch German company with US or China. I don't think we've faced anything like this before have we?

Unlike other drugs, will places like the UK pay the going rate like Americans do if an American company produces this?

Throwing in another complexity. What happens if two or more vaccines are developed with different effectiveness. Who gets each one? Usually the market sorts this out with first to market getting the head start and years later comparative data allowing superior drugs to take over. In this instance the data won't exist or won't be mature enough to really understand the difference. There's going to be some dice rolling.
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1) Absolutely. I have asthma so I'm recommended to get the flu vaccine every year. The problem with the flu vaccine is there are multiple strains of flu which you can come down with. This 'vaccine' is based on the most virulent and prevalent flu strain which Australia has in their previous winter. With COVID, as far as we know, there is only one strain, so I will absolutely be getting that vaccine. I can take or leave the seasonal flu vaccine, but I normally just get it anyway, it's not a bother.

2) One would hope they don't hold countries to ransom. I can't accurately answer that but I read this morning of the Chinese 15 minute antibody test costing $1. How accurate that is, god only knows. All I know is I'm glad Trump didn't get his filthy paws on it exclusively which was what he was wanting. Dirty cnut.

3) Knowing the NHS, it'll be whichever test is cheapest. Regardless of effectiveness.
 
Camy89 said:
1) Absolutely. I have asthma so I'm recommended to get the flu vaccine every year. The problem with the flu vaccine is there are multiple strains of flu which you can come down with. This 'vaccine' is based on the most virulent and prevalent flu strain which Australia has in their previous winter. With COVID, as far as we know, there is only one strain, so I will absolutely be getting that vaccine. I can take or leave the seasonal flu vaccine, but I normally just get it anyway, it's not a bother.

2) One would hope they don't hold countries to ransom. I can't accurately answer that but I read this morning of the Chinese 15 minute antibody test costing $1. How accurate that is, god only knows. All I know is I'm glad Trump didn't get his filthy paws on it exclusively which was what he was wanting. Dirty cnut.

3) Knowing the NHS, it'll be whichever test is cheapest. Regardless of effectiveness.
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Antibody tests can be cheap to make but they won't be sold for $1. I'm more curious about cost and willingness to pay for the actual vaccine though.
 
Finding the self isolation advice a bit vague. If you've got just a bit of a cough and no fever but a tight chest and breathing heavy is that supposed to be self isolation?

From what I've read it starts with a fever in most cases?
 
Smores said:
Finding the self isolation advice a bit vague. If you've got just a bit of a cough and no fever but a tight chest and breathing heavy is that supposed to be self isolation?

From what I've read it starts with a fever in most cases?
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Don't think there's necessarily an order in which the symptoms come but the first point yeah, any of the symptoms at all and you're advised to isolate.
 
Smores said:
Finding the self isolation advice a bit vague. If you've got just a bit of a cough and no fever but a tight chest and breathing heavy is that supposed to be self isolation?

From what I've read it starts with a fever in most cases?
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Not sure about the UK but in Ireland they've said to self-isolate now if you've any cold or flu symptons. Worth remembering that even if you transmit a cold or flu to someone it could lower their immune system if they get it too which would prove fatal for some.

I also read an AMA with a doctor who works for our national health service today who basically said to stay indoors anyway and only leave to get essential services, and if you are outside exercising or walking, stay the feck away from people.
 
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Grinner said:
Does the same test for the virus confirm that somebody who has recovered from it had the virus?

@Arruda
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It shouldn't, from what understand. Hence one of the importances of mass testings in my opinion. It's a test that searches formthe virus' RNA and amplify it, so it should find nothing if the virus has been eliminsted.

A test that looked for antibodies against the virus would allow you to know who has been exposed and is now immune to it. In some cases it can even dostonguish between active disease and previous exposure.
 
My exams in May are cancelled now. Possibly moving to an online assessment which seems pointless as everyone is clearly going to be conferring.
 
Nou_Camp99 said:
Anyone got any tips on how to get hold of paracetamol? Haven't been any for days now in our supermarkets. If you get up and go at 6am has anyone been getting any? I must stress these aren't for me either but for my parents.
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The expensive brands like Lemsip and lemsip capsules are still in some shops - check the branded product labels and you can find paracetamol.

Some chemists have them online, but their delivery dates are stretching all the time.
 
It shouldn't, from what understand. Hence one of the importances of mass testings in my opinion. It's a test that searches formthe virus' RNA and amplify it, so it should find nothing if the virus has been eliminsted.

A test that looked for antibodies against the virus would allow you to know who has been exposed and is now immune to it. In some cases it can even dostonguish between active disease and previous exposure.
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I'm nowhere near familiar enough with the hep b test and similar tests where they do this. I assume there's some cut value assigned (similar to how we do it with cancer tests) for who is considered immune and who is not? And that cut value is likely determined by years of knowledge and follow up. Going to be tough to determine that on the fly, especially if this thing comes back in a different form each year.
 
Tarrou said:
I'll probably get flamed for this, but just an idea...

Assumptions;

- if you get it once you can't get it again
- Virtually zero chance we get a vaccine rolled out for 18months+
- 70%+ of us are getting this in the next two years anyway

Some sweeping assumptions there but If they are correct, and you are healthy and under 30 with the ability to work from home/self-isolate - doesn't it make sense to just get the virus to help us move closer to herd immunity?

If I was in that demographic and it was an option I'd consider it just so to decrease the chance I pass it to my folks within the next couple of years (and I can visit them without worrying about exposing them).

tldr young people should take one for the team and have Coronavirus parties
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"Heard immunity" isn't immediate, it builds up over a number of seasons. There is no evidence that Coronavirus' is a once and done virus like the chicken pox or the mumps.
 
If my grandparents are self isolating, what is the best way to drop their shopping off to them?
Pointless me wearing gloves all around supermarket and driving to theirs? Should they wear gloves to get the bags and unpack shopping? Obviously wash after they’ve unpacked but wouldn’t the virus still be present in everything I’ve bought?
Do I have to leave it in their porch and leave and then them come out get it when I leave?

Bit of a minefield
 
Smores said:
Finding the self isolation advice a bit vague. If you've got just a bit of a cough and no fever but a tight chest and breathing heavy is that supposed to be self isolation?

From what I've read it starts with a fever in most cases?
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You are describing my everyday condition; no joke.

But yeah, if you normally do not feel that way, then self isolation might be an option.
 
Zlatan 7 said:
If my grandparents are self isolating, what is the best way to drop their shopping off to them?
Pointless me wearing gloves all around supermarket and driving to theirs? Should they wear gloves to get the bags and unpack shopping? Obviously wash after they’ve unpacked but wouldn’t the virus still be present in everything I’ve bought?
Do I have to leave it in their porch and leave and then them come out get it when I leave?

Bit of a minefield
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I did some grocery shopping for a co-worker while he was quarantining. Just buy the groceries, knock on the door and leave them outside.
 
Zlatan 7 said:
If my grandparents are self isolating, what is the best way to drop their shopping off to them?
Pointless me wearing gloves all around supermarket and driving to theirs? Should they wear gloves to get the bags and unpack shopping? Obviously wash after they’ve unpacked but wouldn’t the virus still be present in everything I’ve bought?
Do I have to leave it in their porch and leave and then them come out get it when I leave?

Bit of a minefield
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I'd say wash your hands before you go shopping, go about your business as usual (wear gloves if you really wanna be cautious), then drop it off at their door. Step a few metres back, chat while they pick it up, let them unpack the stuff and say that they thoroughly wash their hands after they've unpacked everything, and specifically not touch their face throughout the process.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Not sure about the UK but in Ireland they've said to self-isolate now if you've any cold or flu symptons. Worth remembering that even if you transmit a cold or flu to someone it could lower their immune system if they get it too which would prove fatal for some.

I also read an AMA with a doctor who works for our national health service today who basically said to stay indoors anyway and only leave to get essential services, and if you are outside exercising or walking, stay the feck away from people.
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That doctor is spot on. I’m honestly surprised that this needs to be pointed out to people. It’s basic fecking common sense.
 
senorgregster said:
I'm nowhere near familiar enough with the hep b test and similar tests where they do this. I assume there's some cut value assigned (similar to how we do it with cancer tests) for who is considered immune and who is not? And that cut value is likely determined by years of knowledge and follow up. Going to be tough to determine that on the fly, especially if this thing comes back in a different form each year.
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I'm massively simplifying, but it's not about cut-off values, more about type of antibody the body generates. IgM correlates more with active disease, IgG correlates woth previous exposure.

In general terms.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That doctor is spot on. I’m honestly surprised that this needs to be pointed out to people. It’s basic fecking common sense.
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it's still not really happening though. I drove past Blanch center yesterday, loads of people walking in and out. I know there's a Dunnes in there but I didn't see many shopping bags on them.
 
RobinLFC said:
I'd say wash your hands before you go shopping, go about your business as usual (wear gloves if you really wanna be cautious), then drop it off at their door. Step a few metres back, chat while they pick it up, let them unpack the stuff and say that they thoroughly wash their hands after they've unpacked everything, and specifically not touch their face throughout the process.
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It seems common sense doesn’t it but it’s surprising how much we touch our face etc while doing everything.

I may be thinking too much into it but I wish we knew how long it stayed transferable on certain materials/products
 
Pexbo said:
My exams in May are cancelled now. Possibly moving to an online assessment which seems pointless as everyone is clearly going to be conferring.
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Surely better than canceling all together and delaying people's education?
 
I'm still not overly worried by this at all. My wife is a nurse and is cool as a cucumber about it too. Most either already have it with very mild symptoms or are going to get it at some point over next few months. It's inevitable. All we can do is try to ensure the elderly and the people with serious health issues are isolating as best as they can.

The panic I have seen from some people (mainly in supermarkets) has been beyond a joke. God help us if we ever have to go through another world war and people are enlisted.
 
Kinsella said:
The scientist who led research that is reported to have influenced changes to the UK's coronavirus policy is self-isolating after developing symptoms of Covid-19.

Prof Neil Ferguson, from London's Imperial College, led a group of experts modelling the effect of policies introduced to curb the virus.



Prof Ferguson told BBC Radio 4's Today programme he developed symptoms on Tuesday and a high fever overnight - hours after attending a Downing Street press conference.

"Central London is really the kind of hotspot in the UK at the moment... still in Westminster, there is a lot," he said.

"It is becoming quite a widespread community infection especially in hotspots like London," he added.
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He was with Johnson and the rest.

On Monday.
 
Nou_Camp99 said:
I'm still not overly worried by this at all. My wife is a nurse and is cool as a cucumber about it too. Most either already have it with very mild symptoms or are going to get it at some point over next few months. It's inevitable. All we can do is try to ensure the elderly and the people with serious health issues are isolating as best as they can.

The panic I have seen from some people (mainly in supermarkets) has been beyond a joke. God help us if we every have to go through another world war and people are enlisted.
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Where are you? Again its not the death toll so much I am worried about Covid 19 as long as the health service can keep going its the damage its going to do to the economy and how we live our daily lives, also how long it will stick around for.
 
InLevyITrust said:
Where are you? Again its not the death toll so much I am worried about Covid 19 its the damage its going to do to the economy and how long it will stick around for.
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Manchester.

And I agree about the economy. That is a concern obviously but the scare mongering hasn't helped this one bit. They are saying on the news that this could be going on for 10 months. Are we supposed to be not shopping or going out for almost a year? Nobody will have a job after half that time. Eventually we are going to have to just crack on with it as harsh as it may sound. Obviously take care of the vulnerable in all this first but life must go on. We can't all hide away for a year can we?
 
Nou_Camp99 said:
The panic I have seen from some people (mainly in supermarkets) has been beyond a joke. God help us if we ever have to go through another world war and people are enlisted.
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I've been thinking this as well. Men were sent away from home for years with no choice in the matter, those left behind had to cope whatever their circumstances (and with severe food rationing, too).
 
Does anyone have a rental prop? Mum and dad do are duno what to do re maybe saying not to worry about rent for the same 3 months that mortgages have been paused.
 
Arruda said:
I'm massively simplifying, but it's not about cut-off values, more about type of antibody the body generates. IgM correlates more with active disease, IgG correlates woth previous exposure.

In general terms.
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Actually that makes sense. Black and white for both? Not grayscale? Bit surprised that black and white would be accurate enough.
 
Feds’ 100-page coronavirus plan warns it will ‘last 18 months’ and cause ‘critical shortages’: report

The federal government’s plan for responding to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic was obtained by The New York Times.

“A federal government plan to combat the coronavirus warned policymakers last week that a pandemic ‘will last 18 months or longer’ and could include ‘multiple waves,’ resulting in widespread shortages that would strain consumers and the nation’s health care system,” the newspaper reported.

“The 100-page plan, dated Friday, the same day President Trump declared a national emergency, laid out a grim prognosis for the spread of the virus and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government and potentially employ special presidential powers to mobilize the private sector,” The Times reported.

The document warned of ongoing shortages.

“Shortages of products may occur, impacting health care, emergency services, and other elements of critical infrastructure,” the plan warned. “This includes potentially critical shortages of diagnostics, medical supplies (including [personal protective equipment] and pharmaceuticals), and staffing in some locations.”

“State and local governments, as well as critical infrastructure and communications channels, will be stressed and potentially less reliable. These stresses may also increase the challenges of getting updated messages and coordinating guidance to these jurisdictions directly,” the plan continued.

The document was marked, “For Official Use Only // Not For Public Distribution or Release.”
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