SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Ubik]

Is it worth having separate threads for the economic and health sides of things? Might be easier for people to follow given the fast moving nature of what are essentially two crises happening simultaneously.

(posted in correct thread this time)

 

[Robbie Boy]

Friday night Bingo in the flats in Ringsend in Dublin:

Ffs that's gas.

 

[horsechoker]

Is it worth having separate threads for the economic and health sides of things? Might be easier for people to follow given the fast moving nature of what are essentially two crises happening simultaneously.

(posted in correct thread this time)

I'm wondering if we should have a corona virus sub-forum

 

[Classical Mechanic]

People seem to have responded positively to Sunak because he's at least capable of striking a more statesman like tone when speaking, as below. I don't think Boris would be capable of striking that tone as the semi-smirking, misbehaving schoolchild image he projects robs him of gravitas. While that has worked for him in other contexts, it's hindering him now.

I saw some of his budget delivery in parliament and he was very impressive. People were calling him the next PM after that too.

Boris is great for the bluster of Brexit, the boundless optimism but he is out of his depth in this grave moment.

 

[Brwned]

Don’t think that’s what I said at all is it? I am speaking only in relation to social distancing/shutdown. I literally say in my post there are not going to be any set right or wrong ways to do things, as we’re all going to be fecked one way or another. That’s just a fact.
There’s people on here slagging off old people for going out shopping , slagging people off for going to work, being on the streets and going the gym. Calling people killers amongst others things. Saying the government should have locked down at ‘this time’, calling for draconian measures etc etc. This is what I refer to when I say “experts”. To me it doesn’t look as if these people are able to see the bigger picture.

The experts in this country, as well as the vast majority of other countries facing this in a serious way, have said not to go to the gyms, not to hang out out on the streets, not to go out for non-essential shopping etc. They're not saying there's no right or wrong answers, they've said conclusively that this is the wrong thing to do and they've taken increasingly drastic measures to impose that. They've done this after extensive analysis of the economic, social and medical effects of various strategies. Do you think it is wrong to disregard this?

 

[Penna]

Very relieved to see the government pledges on wage. It was expected but not unwelcome. Our agency has been on the precipice of ceasing for the past week. I can now fully isolate with family without any immediate concern.

Good, that's some better news for you.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

People seem to have responded positively to Sunak because he's at least capable of striking a more statesman like tone when speaking, as below. I don't think Boris would be capable of striking that tone as the semi-smirking, misbehaving schoolchild image he projects robs him of gravitas. While that has worked for him in other contexts, it's hindering him now.

Toryism with a human face?

 

[Samid]

 

[arnie_ni]

You lot are fecking dangerous.

Eh?

 

[arnie_ni]

The other 2 they had on were even worse

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I've been looking into this a bit due to my brother being asthmatic (and a carefree asshat). There isn't anything definitive, but it seems to very much depend on how serious your asthma is along with how old you are. If you have poorly controlled asthma or have to take steroid pills then the NHS defines you along with COPD sufferers as being in a high risk group. Those that are inhaler only are not given any specific guidance other than to be wary.

Actual research is thin on the ground and I haven't managed to come across a study that specifically isolates asthmatics as a group, let alone stratifies them by severity. The nearest I've got is this study that I posted on March 11th: Comorbidity and its impact on 1,590 patients with COVID-19 in China: A Nationwide Analysis

Here's the relevant table from that study (need to remember that it is a very rough guide):

As you can see Asthma isn't covered, only people with COPD. What this basically says is that people with COPD are roughly 2.681 times more likely to die than a healthy person in the same age group. Note the confidence interval is very wide indeed here, and the study can only say with 95% certainty that the true hazard ratio lies somewhere between 1.424 and 5.048.

This doesn't correspond 1:1 to the hazard ratio associated with severe asthma and represents the very worst estimate an asthma sufferer would have. It will vastly overstate the risk associated with milder asthma. In terms of studies around this area though it's the best I've got as of now.

It's also important to note that there is no evidence of people with asthma being more prone to contracting the disease, and that Asthma UK and ACAII (the Yank one) both say that there is no elevated risk from continuing to take your medication.

@mehdimike

Sorry @mehdimike there is also this study that attempts to derive the general mortality rate by age. I posted it earlier: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7.

You can use that in conjunction with the study I posted above to derive a very rough understanding of the risks this poses to your dad. Remember it likely overstates the risk. Below is the relevant chart listing the case fatality rate (CFR) for different age groups.

Spoiler: large chart of the study's findings

 

[Hugh Jass]

It is scary how stupid some people are. Just ridiculous.

 

[Moiraine]

I genuinely feel sorry for people like you.

WTF? You feel sorry for him for actually having a grasp of how things work?

Please don’t fight.

Van der Gouw can you explain your theory how lockdown from day zero isn’t a good strategy?
Don’t you think a 2-3 weeks Quarantine in the beginning and strict control on incomings is more appropriate?

 

[ivaldo]

Good, that's some better news for you.

Thanks Penna. It's a nice reprieve!

 

[Wumminator]

I really hope that the measures started today don’t work for people who have gone out tonight. I genuinely think they should not have the protection society gives if they’ve been that selfish.

 

[Igor Drefljak]

So this 80%
I work in a place that can still operate for now, but I also have to take blood pressure tablets.

If I decide I should self isolate as I also live with a person over the age of 70, who has CPOD, am I able to get this 80% wage relief?

 

[SteveJ]

I really hope that the measures started today don’t work for people who have gone out tonight. I genuinely think they should not have the protection society gives if they’ve been that selfish.

I don't think there's ever been a more stupidly, self-defeatingly deferential people with such a passion for feigned defiance to authority than the British.

 

[Virgil]

Mother and father in law went to church last Sunday. They do this thing where they take a minute to hug everyone near them each service and despite clear advice on how to engage with other people, still did it this week. Idiots

I told them not to bother asking to come to my house to see kids... if they can't be arsed to avoid dozens of people, don't see why me/my family should increase our risk.

Sure they'll be ok though, their faith will beat Covid 19

Cannot speak for other faiths/denominations but C of E has cancelled all services. Weddings and Funerals now limited to immediate family only and then maintaining social distancing. Church in our town today conducted its last funeral service today. Only conducting them at the graveside from now on. Not sure whether this latter is C of E policy.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

I really hope that the measures started today don’t work for people who have gone out tonight. I genuinely think they should not have the protection society gives if they’ve been that selfish.

I'd say half the pubs in this town have closed already. Sadly the other half are doing things like £1 a pint to clear their stock. Utter cnuts

 

[Ludens the Red]

The experts in this country, as well as the vast majority of other countries facing this in a serious way, have said not to go to the gyms, not to hang out out on the streets, not to go out for non-essential shopping etc. They're not saying there's no right or wrong answers, they've said conclusively that this is the wrong thing to do and they've taken increasingly drastic measures to impose that. They've done this after extensive analysis of the economic, social and medical effects of various strategies. Do you think it is wrong to disregard this?

You’re creating an argument that isn’t there. I said none of these things nor implied any of these things.
I wasn’t talking about non essential shopping. I meant food shopping, which old people were being criticised for doing in this thread. Being on the street could very well be a consequence of having to go into work, visit family or go food shopping which is why it is stupid to pull photos off twitter showing people in the street and then slating people for “not listening”.

I’ll try and make this clear....I’m not questioning, judging or disregarding governments advice nor advocating for it to be ignored. I have taken issue purely with the way people on here have been criticising people who are out and about to the degree they have been.

Fair enough to the idiots taking a selfie in a pub bragging about how the virus can’t touch them, that’s fair game. But there’s a lot of people who have to be out for a variety of reasons and for some unlike a lot on here they are not able to just lock themselves away and doing it for months on end is not only going to damage certain people financially but also mentally. Which is why I assume the uk government have done this lockdown in slow time and in such a way so it doesn’t appear draconian.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

I completely agree. And it has actually been pretty fast in the grand scheme of things anyway.

The fact is we need people to catch it. There was no point is shutting everything down with only a handful of cases..

Bullshit.

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

As a Doctor in the NHS I can tell you that anyone requiring admission to hospital with any sort of respiratory symptoms is being tested now . If you come to the hospital with signs of anything resembling Covid you are going to get a test . The results are taking 4-5 days though at the moment. Liverpool for example has no reagent for testing and all the swabs are being sent to Manchester for testing

 

[ivaldo]

Nice. Wish I was in the same position

I know I'm fortunate. Hope it works out for you pal.

 

[Hugh Jass]

I completely agree. And it has actually been pretty fast in the grand scheme of things anyway.

The fact is we need people to catch it. There was no point is shutting everything down with only a handful of cases..

If it happened over the course of five years it would not be so bad. But the way its going now the health system will be swamped.

I still think a lockdown is better.

 

[TMDaines]

We've caught some affluent and like minded individuals.

This meme is never gonna die, is it?

 

[Penna]

Cannot speak for other faiths/denominations but C of E has cancelled all services. Weddings and Funerals now limited to immediate family only and then maintaining social distancing. Church in our town today conducted its last funeral service today. Only conducting them at the graveside from now on. Not sure whether this latter is C of E policy.

Mass has been cancelled for several weeks here now in Italy - it's not what we want, but we have to be sensible.

 

[Camilo]

Hospitals are already struggling with the intake though. For me it is reckless to want it spread quickly for herd immunity when our hospitals aren't equipped for the numbers.

No one wants it to spread quickly, but going into some sort of lock down on day one simply means it doesnt spread at all. And unless we all plan on spending 18 months indoors waiting on a vaccine (which might not be effective by then anyway) then we needed to let it spread a bit. Which is what we've all done.

And ultimately we need to remember that for most of us it'll just be a flu. People need to keep their shit together. Today I've had calls saying "there's toilet paper in x shop" and "sign up for x government aid package before the system gets swamped".. Sensible people normally, swept up in the insanity that is social media. Embarrassing.

 

[arnie_ni]

So this 80%
I work in a place that can still operate for now, but I also have to take blood pressure tablets.

If I decide I should self isolate as I also live with a person over the age of 70, who has CPOD, am I able to get this 80% wage relief?

From my understanding you'll be on sick pay. This 80 percent grant is for employers who effectively have to close their doors and want to keep the employees on payroll.

 

[Revaulx]

Churchgoers shouldn’t be the problem, but you never know. Pray that virus away!

Church of England cancelled all public worship a week ago. We weren’t even allowed to record a radio broadcast BCD.

In the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic the bishop of Zamora in western Spain told his flock that this new-fangled Germ Theory was a Protestant/Communist Plot and they had to come to the Cathedral for nine days in succession to not only receive mass but also kiss the Holy Relics. Not surprisingly, the death toll was the highest of any town in Europe.

 

[The Firestarter]

Now the Lancet medical journal is saying the Chinese doctors and scientists did inform them and even wrote in the journal about this new virus in January this year. At that time they only knew how serious it was and what was the symptoms and how they are trying to isolate it. This was given to the British government by the Journal yet the government did not seem fit to act. In fact the government's policy was to get as many people infected and have a herd mentality. The Chinese and later the Italians were saying this is the wrong approach. The WHO asked for 675M USD to declare a pandemic and was refused.
The whole World has failed and not just China. Others are more culpable because from what happened in China they were able to see beforehand exactly what was going to happen 3 months in advance and yet they did nothing to stop it or to save the lives of so many people.
At least the Chinese are helping other nations to combat this virus. UK government is not doing enough to combat this virus even in the UK. The same in the USA too.

675M? What?

 

[balaks]

Starting to look grim in London

 

[Revaulx]

Mother and father in law went to church last Sunday. They do this thing where they take a minute to hug everyone near them each service and despite clear advice on how to engage with other people, still did it this week. Idiots

I told them not to bother asking to come to my house to see kids... if they can't be arsed to avoid dozens of people, don't see why me/my family should increase our risk.

Sure they'll be ok though, their faith will beat Covid 19

Even handshakes have been absolutely banned for the past three weeks. In the C of E Diocese of Leeds at any rate. But then we never really go for Holy Hugging

 

[Foxbatt]

675M? What?

What do you mean by 675M? What? It's there in my post. 675M USD.

 

[Arruda]

No one wants it to spread quickly, but going into some sort of lock down on day one simply means it doesnt spread at all.

A lockdown from day one would have been a lockdown about 2 months ago. It was never into question, even in the best of chances, it wouldn't have been possible, even the Chinese couldn't do that.

What you see in the UK, however, is the exact opposite, not a half-sensible middle ground. News anchors in Portugal are shocked that only today were classes suspended.

Boris Johnson is now no different than that famous Iraqi information minister.

 

[Dumbstar]

Cannot speak for other faiths/denominations but C of E has cancelled all services. Weddings and Funerals now limited to immediate family only and then maintaining social distancing. Church in our town today conducted its last funeral service today. Only conducting them at the graveside from now on. Not sure whether this latter is C of E policy.

It's Friday today and we have to pray in congregation. But the large mosques are shut under government guidance. I managed to squeak into a much smaller one expecting it to be heaving but people seem to have taken the advice and stayed home. Seems like Ramadan will be pretty much done at home too from next month (normally it's daily night time prayers in congregation). This is all allowed by the way under extenuating circumstances like these.

 

[The Firestarter]

What do you mean by 675M? What? It's there in my post. 675M USD.

Why the feck did they ask for that?

 

[Sassy Colin]

I was talking to a client in Hong Kong this morning, and she says they are starting to get back to normality a little bit now. She said that the supermarket shelf stripping went on for a month though.

I'm at my local Chinese tonight, and they told me that the schools are starting to reopen in China.

A lot of Chinese people from Europe are going back to China, for safety. They are being quarantined for 2 weeks before they can properly enter the country.

Maybe 3 months and things can start to get back to normal.

 

[groovyalbert]

Starting to look grim in London

How so? I'm there but haven't left my ends for days

 

[Foxbatt]

Why the feck did they ask for that?

To help the less fortunate countries to fight the pandemic I guess. WHO is funded by the member states. It's in the Guardian. Have a look.

 

[The Firestarter]

To help the less fortunate countries to fight the pandemic I guess. WHO is funded by the member states. It's in the Guardian. Have a look.

The way you put it it appeared like some form of weird quid pro quo . I'll check it out.