SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

massi83 said:
Iceland data is good exercise. But it is totally skewed. You can see that almost all of the cases found are from government testing, and DeCode is not finding almost any cases, because their testing criteria is totally different. So these numbers can not be compared to other countries. Also age distribution of cases explains the low dead rate so far, as well as the early detection, like you mention.

But this is yet another data point that there just aren't that many asymptotic cases around. Certainly not this imaginery 10x number some are hoping for.
Click to expand...

I thought the Iceland data showed 50% of cases were asymptomatic and the rest were mainly mild? Small number more serious.
 
Heardy said:
I agree but I think this will also lead to a need to really consider how the NHS is run / funded. Surely this has highlight massive gaps in the system that will really need correcting.
Click to expand...

Absolutely but the NHS is in the state it is in by design, that includes the way it’s run rather than funded. It’s intentionally been crippled and disjointed so the government can point to its failings and justify their actions.
 
Pexbo said:
Absolutely but the NHS is in the state it is in by design, that includes the way it’s run rather than funded. It’s intentionally been crippled and disjointed so the government can point to its failings and justify their actions.
Click to expand...

Agree. I’m definitely against privatisation of the NHS but can’t help think that private management would make huge advances for the state of the NHS.
 
Pexbo said:
If one good thing comes out of this virus, it’s hopefully that the NHS becomes absolutely untouchable for the Tories and the need for public healthcare is cemented in the US.
Click to expand...

I have felt for some time that the NHS and education should be governed completely outside of party policy and run by cross party committee. This would ensure that two of the most important pillars of our lives are free from the ebb and flow of politics and remain as consistently funded and guided as possible.
 
fergieisold said:
I thought the Iceland data showed 50% of cases were asymptomatic and the rest were mainly mild? Small number more serious.
Click to expand...
Look at the breakdown from amount of tests and the amount of positive results, from both government and from decode. They are totally and utterly different. If there were many asymptotic cases, decode would have a "better" success rate. And I believe there are 20-50% asymptotic cases. Finnish government thinks there are 90-95% asymptotic, no way is that possible.

About 1% is positive for decode, and 14% for government. So totally skewed data.
 
The problem with supplements is the severe lack of testing. Both safety and effectiveness. For the most part they'll likely do no harm and be ineffective. In particular, I would be very careful with supplements that have significantly more than recommended daily doses of vitamins etc.
 
Sweet Square said:
CfQ5aW0WsAATR6x.jpg
Click to expand...

:lol:
TheGame said:
Click to expand...


Surely this sort of stuff isn't decided by subscribing to one email. It would have been verbally discussed and agreed with all parties
 
massi83 said:
Iceland data is good exercise. But it is totally skewed. You can see that almost all of the cases found are from government testing, and DeCode is not finding almost any cases, because their testing criteria is totally different. So these numbers can not be compared to other countries. Also age distribution of cases explains the low dead rate so far, as well as the early detection, like you mention.

But this is yet another data point that there just aren't that many asymptotic cases around. Certainly not this imaginery 10x number some are hoping for.
Click to expand...

They differentiate between the two. Government testing by itself has tested proportionally 3x more of Iceland's population than NY and continues to test them at a faster daily rate.

The fact they're checking a self selecting asymptotic group as well as those found via government tracing is precisely what makes the Icelandic numbers so useful. Like you say the deCode data provides a useful proxy for predicting the upper bound of community spread. If 0.86% of a truly random selection of 5.5k people prove positive then we might predict that as of 21st of March around 3.5k Icelanders were infected. Since the deCode test is self selecting and based out of Reykjavik (the hotspot) it's likely a lot, lot less than that.

I just think that going forward and given the small population size the Icelandic numbers are the cleanest, most comprehensive and likely to be the most revelatory.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
They differentiate between the two. Government testing by itself has tested proportionally 3x more of Iceland's population than NY and continues to test them at a faster daily rate.

The fact they're checking a self selecting asymptotic group as well as those found via government tracing is precisely what makes the Icelandic numbers so useful. Like you say the deCode data provides a useful proxy for predicting the upper bound of community spread. If 0.86% of a truly random selection of 5.5k people prove positive then we might predict that as of 21st of March around 3.5k Icelanders were infected. Since the deCode test is self selecting and based out of Reykjavik (the hotspot) it's likely a lot, lot less than that.

I just think that going forward and given the small population size the Icelandic numbers are the cleanest, most comprehensive and likely to be the most revelatory.
Click to expand...
Sure, but many people will confuse this as random sampling. It is useful but random sampling would be a lot more interesting. Still helpful data obviously.
 
feck me, Croatia has apparently only done about 1900 tests so far. In comparison iirc Slovenia has done about 18000 with half the population. We also have a similar number of confirmed cases at around 650, but with 18 times more tests performed. I don't even want to look at numbers from other Balkan countries.

At least the containment measures have been mostly taken I believe. Hopefully those will help at least on some level.
 
senorgregster said:
The problem with supplements is the severe lack of testing. Both safety and effectiveness. For the most part they'll likely do no harm and be ineffective. In particular, I would be very careful with supplements that have significantly more than recommended daily doses of vitamins etc.
Click to expand...
I would guess roughly 9 in 10 people I know think they can defeat the flu by taking ungodly amounts of Vitamin C once symptoms set in or if they feel at risk.

They are probably thinking the same with this virus.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
I would guess roughly 9 in 10 people I know think they can defeat the flu by taking ungodly amounts of Vitamin C once symptoms set in or if they feel at risk.

They are probably thinking the same with this virus.
Click to expand...

There is proof that vitamin c reduces the duration of the common cold though, so it's not a totally unfounded belief, and it certainly cant hurt you in any over the counter dosage.

I wonder how that intravenous vitamin c trial went in China. I haven't seen any results which probably means it didnt work.
 
Why Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Far Lower Than In Other Countries

As confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Germany soared past 10,000 last week, hundreds of Berliners crowded Volkspark am Friedrichshain to play soccer and basketball, and to let their kids loose on the park's many jungle gyms.

The conditions seemed ideal for the spread of a virus that has killed thousands. Indeed, as of Wednesday, Germany had the fifth-highest number of cases.

Yet Germany's fatality rate so far — just 0.5% — is the world's lowest, by a long shot.

"I believe that we are just testing much more than in other countries, and we are detecting our outbreak early," said Christian Drosten, director of the institute of virology at Berlin's Charité hospital.

As Europe has become the epicenter of the global coronavirus pandemic, Italy's fatality rate hovers around 10%. France's is around 5%. Yet Germany's fatality rate from COVID-19 has remained remarkably low since cases started showing up there more than a month ago. As of March 25, there were 175 deaths and 34,055 cases.

Drosten, whose team of researchers developed the first COVID-19 test used in the public domain, said Germany's low fatality rate is because of his country's ability to test early and often. He estimates Germany has been testing around 120,000 people a week for COVID-19 during the monthlong period from late February to now, when it's reached epidemic proportions in the country, the most extensive testing regimen in the world.

And that means Germany is more likely to have a lower number of undetected cases than other countries where testing is less prevalent, which raises the question: Why is Germany testing so much?

"We have a culture here in Germany that is actually not supporting a centralized diagnostic system," said Drosten, "so Germany does not have a public health laboratory that would restrict other labs from doing the tests. So we had an open market from the beginning."

In other words, Germany's equivalent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — the Robert Koch Institute — makes recommendations but does not call the shots on testing for the entire country. Germany's 16 federal states make their own decisions on coronavirus testing because each of them is responsible for their own health care systems.

When Drosten's university medical center developed what became the test recommended by the World Health Organization, they rolled these tests out to their colleagues throughout Germany in January.

"And they of course rolled this out to labs they know in the periphery and to hospital labs in the area where they are situated," Drosten said. "This created a situation where, let's say, by the beginning or middle of February, testing was already in place, broadly."

Drosten said that has meant quicker, earlier and more widespread testing for COVID-19 in Germany than in other countries.

Lothar Wieler, head of the Robert Koch Institute, Germany's federal agency responsible for disease control and prevention, said at a news conference last week that Germany's testing infrastructure means authorities have a more accurate read of confirmed cases of the virus.

"We don't know exactly how many unknown cases there are, but we estimate that this unknown number is not very high," Wieler said. "The reason is simple. We issued recommendations in mid-January about who should be tested and who shouldn't be tested."

But some Berlin residents aren't as confident as Wieler. Nizana Nizzi Brautmann said she was worried when a teacher at her son's school tested positive for COVID-19 and a day later she and her son woke up with fevers and persistent coughing. She said she couldn't get through to Berlin's coronavirus hotline, which was continuously busy.

She finally got through to the city's emergency medical service number, "and I told her I think we need to be checked because we have some symptoms," Brautmann recalled. "The lady was just saying, 'We make no tests here. I can't help you. I would advise you to stay home and drink tea.' "

When she finally was able to speak to a doctor on the phone, the doctor told her to wait in line outside a local hospital to get tested, but she didn't have a mask for her or her son, and she didn't want to infect others in line, so she stayed home. She and her son are now in good health, but she said the episode left her wondering how prepared German society is for this pandemic.

Drosten said such experiences are probably an exception, not the rule.

"I know the diagnostics community in Germany a bit," Drosten said. "My feeling is that actually the supply of tests is still good. And of course, our epidemic is now also very much up-ramping and we will lose track here, too."

Drosten said the growing number of cases in Germany will soon exceed testing capacities. But for the time being, he thinks the country has had a robust response to the coronavirus pandemic. He's most worried about countries in Africa that aren't well set up for this — countries that, once the crisis comes to them, will find it more difficult to flatten the curve.
Click to expand...

Source

(bolding done by me)
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Why Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Far Lower Than In Other Countries



Source

(bolded parts done by me)
Click to expand...

Makes sense. Italy announced yesterday that as infections are slowing and testing capacity has caught up, they can now test people with just 1 symptom instead of restricting it to those with 2 or more. Could result in a rise in recorded infections short term but shows how under pressure some systems are.
 
The WHO has repeatedly said that testing is the key.
The more you test the better they know this virus and the better the figures look.
Alas, in this country we have only just started testing in vast numbers which means our figures look better than what they are in terms of confirmed cases.
Germany has tested in vast numbers straight away, which gives their figure a true reflection.
 
Testing is particularly important for young people who will actually be the biggest group carrying the virus. If they're aware the have the virus I think the majority will self-isolate. You will get a few who are to stubborn/stupid/arrogant etc. to change their ways but you at least know who has it and who doesn't.

I wish Italy, Spain and the UK would have done this but I think these countries have problems with being able to test so many people.

Why have some countries been able to test large groups of people while others haven't?
 
America has a sixth of the worlds cases.
It's either the US has been very good with testing and the other numbers are shit or the US response to this has been diabolical. The rate of infection in America is something else.
 
I know people will cry about preferential treatment, etc, but wouldn't it be an idea to test all the MP's and journalists that have come into contact with Boris, Hanncock. and Witty, within the last week or so, and maybe creating a sort of micro analysis of how many have it but are asymptomatic, and then those who go onto get symptoms.
 
C'est Moi Cantona said:
I know people will cry about preferential treatment, etc, but wouldn't it be an idea to test all the MP's and journalists that have come into contact with Boris, Hanncock. and Witty, within the last week or so, and maybe creating a sort of micro analysis of how many have it but are asymptomatic, and then those who go onto get symptoms.
Click to expand...
It would be a good idea. Crazy to think otherwise.
 
Penna said:
I'm taking a liquid supplement made by Haliborange which has Vit D3, echinacea and all sorts of other stuff in it to boost the immune system. No idea if it'll help, but it won't do any harm!
Click to expand...
I guess you didnt watch the explainer video which stated a really strong imune system actually can cause death with coronavirus since the anti bodies attack your own cells as well as the virus.
 
Adisa said:
America has a sixth of the worlds cases.
It's either the US has been very good with testing and the other numbers are shit or the US response to this has been diabolical. The rate of infection in America is something else.
Click to expand...
I’d wager it’s some of both. In some manners the response by governance (local and national) was criminal. And large numbers of our populace believe in our dear leader’s conspiracy theories.

But I actually trust to have real numbers reported by medical professionals as opposed to, say... Russia.
 
2cents said:
Thread


Click to expand...


I don't know about this. Seems so complacent and incompetent given this was a novel virus. Caution should have been exercised from the beginning. What we're seeing now is the result of head burying in the sand.

Over reacting would have been far better than under reacting. The world is guilty of the latter and nearly 25,000 people have died in around 2 months.
 
Heardy said:
I agree but I think this will also lead to a need to really consider how the NHS is run / funded. Surely this has highlight massive gaps in the system that will really need correcting.
Click to expand...

Agreed but from the local information in my county which I reckon would be mirrored throughout all the others the local AE departments are witnessing a large reduction in the walking wounded. Cannot help but think we have abused the NHS for far too long. Certainly it’s underfunded but it’s also true that if we get the slightest snivel these days it’s off to the GP and AE departments for antibiotics, sick note or reassurance.
 
Difficult to implement the fines at the moment as everybody is 'doing the food shop', exercising or supporting a vulnerable relative. I think in other countries they have implemented a system where you get alloted times to go out and have to give a valid reason. Not sure how it would work but some kind of app or txt system that you could show when challenged.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
I don't know about this. Seems so complacent and incompetent given this was a novel virus. Caution should have been exercised from the beginning. What we're seeing now is the result of head burying in the sand.

Over reacting would have been far better than under reacting. The world is guilty of the latter and nearly 25,000 people have died in around 2 months.
Click to expand...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2475551/

On average, more than two new species of human virus are reported every year.

If we did what you suggest, we'd be in perpetual lockdown.
 
lewwoo said:
Difficult to implement the fines at the moment as everybody is 'doing the food shop', exercising or supporting a vulnerable relative. I think in other countries they have implemented a system where you get alloted times to go out and have to give a valid reason. Not sure how it would work but some kind of app or txt system that you could show when challenged.
Click to expand...
You fill in a form and carry photo ID. If you're stopped and things aren't in order, you get a heavy fine. I can tell you that it works, you second-guess every time you step outside your gate.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.