Had the misfortune to have Pearson's nonsense crop up on my timeline. feck spreading it to other people, who cares about them? As long as you're alright, that is all that matters.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Had the misfortune to have Pearson's nonsense crop up on my timeline. feck spreading it to other people, who cares about them? As long as you're alright, that is all that matters.
How do you unilaterally leave lockdown?
They do realise the lockdown can still be enforced upon them, they're just choosing to break the law.
They do realise the lockdown can still be enforced upon them, they're just choosing to break the law.
Hopefully her friends get unilaterally tasered and fined, idiots.
Stupid is what stupid does.
Two of her household also have the virus. She's a stupid cow starved of attention. Only a couple of weeks ago she was writing how a selfish generation was going to kill people by ignoring the fecking lockdown.
Interesting news from India where many said it would explode or they would be dying but unable to test.
"Parts of India have recorded dramatic falls in mortality rates after a nationwide lockdown was imposed to fight the new coronavirus, suggesting there has not been an undetected surge in virus-related deaths.
All over the world, mortality rates are being scrutinized to determine the true impact of the coronavirus, which emerged in China late last year and is known to have infected more than 2.7 million people globally, with nearly 190,000 deaths.
While death rates in some countries have risen sharply in recent weeks, in India the opposite seems to be happening, at least in some places, leaving hospitals, funeral parlors and cremation sites wondering what is going on.
“It’s very surprising for us,” said Shruthi Reddy, chief executive officer of Anthyesti Funeral Services, which operates in the eastern city of Kolkata and the southern tech hub of Bengaluru.
The company handled about five jobs a day in January but has only had about three a day this month.
“We’ve declared employee pay cuts if revenue falls below a threshold,” Reddy said.
Other numbers tell a similar story.
Central Mumbai, home to some 12 million people, saw deaths fall by about 21 percent in March compared with the same month of 2019, according to municipal data.
Overall deaths plummeted 67 percent in Ahmedabad, the biggest city in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, over the same period.
Data from at least two other cities, along with accounts from state health officials, show a similar pattern. Half a dozen funeral businesses and crematoriums also reported slumps in business, especially in April.
“If we’re not seeing an increase in deaths, the suspicion that there may be more COVID-19 fatalities out there is not true,” said Giridhar Babu, professor of epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India."
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1664226/world
"Parts of India have recorded dramatic falls in mortality rates after a nationwide lockdown was imposed to fight the new coronavirus, suggesting there has not been an undetected surge in virus-related deaths.
All over the world, mortality rates are being scrutinized to determine the true impact of the coronavirus, which emerged in China late last year and is known to have infected more than 2.7 million people globally, with nearly 190,000 deaths.
While death rates in some countries have risen sharply in recent weeks, in India the opposite seems to be happening, at least in some places, leaving hospitals, funeral parlors and cremation sites wondering what is going on.
“It’s very surprising for us,” said Shruthi Reddy, chief executive officer of Anthyesti Funeral Services, which operates in the eastern city of Kolkata and the southern tech hub of Bengaluru.
The company handled about five jobs a day in January but has only had about three a day this month.
“We’ve declared employee pay cuts if revenue falls below a threshold,” Reddy said.
Other numbers tell a similar story.
Central Mumbai, home to some 12 million people, saw deaths fall by about 21 percent in March compared with the same month of 2019, according to municipal data.
Overall deaths plummeted 67 percent in Ahmedabad, the biggest city in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, over the same period.
Data from at least two other cities, along with accounts from state health officials, show a similar pattern. Half a dozen funeral businesses and crematoriums also reported slumps in business, especially in April.
“If we’re not seeing an increase in deaths, the suspicion that there may be more COVID-19 fatalities out there is not true,” said Giridhar Babu, professor of epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India."
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1664226/world
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If this is true does this mean no vaccination is possible?
On the BBC.
The World Health Organization (WHO) says that there is "currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection".
It has been suggested that people who survive an infection may develop antibodies that can attack the virus and prevent reinfection.
On the BBC.
The World Health Organization (WHO) says that there is "currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection".
It has been suggested that people who survive an infection may develop antibodies that can attack the virus and prevent reinfection.
Interesting. Maybe they are still early phase. Can not fathom India not being hit hard by this there being so high density of people, million cities and 1,4b people.
Think it means they don't know yet.And no guarantee second infection as bad.
Too early, guessing yet
If people didn't develop antibodies almost all those infected would have died. Or maybe all.
Nope. You can fight off infection without generating any kind of meaningful antibody response. In fact, that seems to be quite common in the very mild/asymptomatic cases. Also in children.
I would take that with a pinch of salt. WHO just don't want to get it seriously wrong so theyre covering their bases. If there isn't a vaccine / antibodies they can claim they were right, if there is a vaccine / antibodies then they can say "well, better safe than sorry".
I don't have a background in evaporation or biology so I can't say much about whether the distance could be larger or even smaller.
I think I can say it will almost certainly reduce the risk. How much the risk reduces with distance I don't know, and I don't think you can answer that very easily. But generally the further you stand from an individual, the greater opportunity you give for the droplets to lose all the initial energy they attain from the sneeze.
You can think of this like water being ejected from a hose when you are cleaning the car or gardening. If you put your finger right near the nozzle of the hose, all the water will hit your finger. Now move your finger away from the nozzle. Less water will hit your finger because the water has lost some of the pressure energy and also it has dispersed outwards away from the central axis of the hose pipe.
Continuing the analogy, the greatest distance the water travels from your hose pipe depends on:
- how much you turn the tap on therefore giving more energy to the water (analogous to how violently someone sneezes)
- The angle relative to the horizontal in which you hold the hose which determines the initial direction of the water (analogous to the tilt in someones head at the moment they release the droplets when they)
- Whether or not it is windy
Remember, we have not considered evaporation in this argument.
As I said earlier, I can't really say much about the specific distance, but it is definitely going to help - I can't see how it won't. I have no doubt we will see people argue the distance could be further, but really it is like answering "how long is a piece of string" simply because it is difficult to consider each and every different environmental circumstance in which someone sneezes e.g. they sneeze at home with air con off, they sneeze at home with air con on, with windows open/closed etc.
But one can simplify these problems (e.g. using non-dimensional numbers) and talking to people with the right knowledge. A lot of people have experience in both dispersion and heat transfer problems associated with droplets. Examples include:
- combustion industry such as injecting sprays of fuel droplets into hot turbulent gas inside an engine
- cloud physics where you study rain formation in clouds, where rainwater can disperse, freeze (snow) or perhaps evaporate as well
- industrial processes like spray drying whereby you dry liquid droplets into fine powder within turbulent gasses
- atmospherical scientists who may study droplet emission problems, rather than just solid particles
So we have the people and the knowledge to come up with answers. I hope that the people in biology do tap into that experience.
EDIT: Added the bit in bold.
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I was listening to someone talk about this, this morning. Some of the best know coronaviruses cause the common cold. They’ve done research on previous coronavirus strains where they try to re-infect people a year after previous infection. The bad news is that most of them got infected all over again. The good news is that most of them didn’t get any symptoms.
Can’t. Stay. Away...
If catching this virus doesn't prevent you from catching it again and becoming infectious again then wouldn't that mean there is no herd immunity?
I try and fail every day.
I know I might be a bit doom and gloom but we are months into this crisis and we still don't know enough to rule out the truly catastrophic (as if this isn't bad enough).
Cummings would be a hugely convenient fall guy here. The bodges are possibly his fault anyway but could be a get out of jail free card for Boris.
If it helps, I know myself and the vast majority of others in the thread (I can’t speak for that religious nutter) hugely appreciate your input, whether your own opinion or stuff you’ve heard, for example the webinar you listened to this morning.
Yes. It would become endemic. One of those viruses we just have to live with. There’s a reasonable chance of this happening. Although the fact that repeat infections will likely be very mild means severe cases will become more and more rare.
I agree, and would add that Pogue inspired me to get a pulse oximeter off Amazon. It was only £23 and well worth that for a bit of reassurance, so thanks Pogue.
A bit puzzled by the results though, I run or walk seriously every day and my figure is 95%, but my somewhat sedentary and overweight missus is 97%. Stick thin daughter is 100% and slim and fit son 95% like me. I get the idea is to know your own level and only worry if it drops significantly from that but I still find the results annoying. Lower than the Mrs, good grief.
The cheapy ones like you got (and I got!) are a bit flaky. Could be something as simple as the skin on your finger being a bit thicker?
But his point is that it will not just be the idiots. The virus is so easily spread and doesn't discriminate the idiots from those trying to do the right thing.
This seems the most likely situation for me, too. Severe cases will become rarer and it will be down to whether someone is seriously ill anyway that determines how lethal it is, which is still mostly the case now. It's still the vast majority of casualties are suffering from serious underlying health problems anyway, the 'healthy young victim' is still exactly what it is - a very sad, unfortunate fluke.
Haven't seen any daily figures yet today, thought it was usually around 2pm they came out.
Exactly that.
There is so much that we don't understand about this virus. It is going to challenge us for a long time yet.
In those very famous words... This isn't the end, or even the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.
So true and so appropriate. Because we are in a war against it and it is winning having taken 200,000 of us already.
Ah yes, horny handed son of the soil that I am. Hang on, I'm a lifelong pen-pusher really. Just got 95 again, so it is consistent at any rate, which is all we're looking for anyway really, so all's well I suppose.
781 deaths today in U.K.
Yup. Consistency is key. Just need to park that ego!
I consider myself relatively fit, think my score was 93 or 94 the other day, down to 91 today.
Edit: gotta say mine is only a Samsung health thing on the galaxy S10 so probably not too accurate. Think it's worth doing it at different times during the day to get an average tbh
COVID-19 Cases, Deaths and New Deaths 1 week avg, normalized by country population
Might be asking a bit much but can that site do New York State and then also US minus New York?
Over 800 again in UK on a Saturday, hard to talk about relaxing restrictions, although they don't seem to be helping here. ~5k new cases every day for 20 days, Italy drop down a lot every 5 days to 3k in this time. UK 15 days in and no significant drops in deaths from the peak. Other hard hit countries 6-7 days to reach the 400-600 range after a peak of 900+. We've just gone lethally sideways for a month. Spain/Italy have had stricter lockdowns note.
5th country to pass 20k
5th country to pass 20k
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We've been in lockdown for 30 days, and yet the numbers dying is still in the 800s.
I've said this before but it's because it's not a lockdown. It's too relaxed. I still know so many people who dont think it's a big deal.
Wuhan literally bolted people in their houses and it took them 6 weeks to get it under control. Italy has been a step below that and almost 2 months later is just about confident the peak is behind them. The UK will take much longer as long as everybody takes their hour (and the rest) exercise every day and nobody is around to enforce the rules on people who ignore them.
Surely letting people travel from country to country doesn't help. All the borders should be shut and no flight should be allowed unless for supplies.
In Norway the also relaxed lockdown works, but maybe the reason can be the numbers of infected before the lockdown? Since your govt tested so few, I guess that might be the case. Italy also took long before the numbers went down. I guess that you will see effects in a week or two. You will not eradicate the virus but you will propably get the RO pretty low. Also, of course pop. density means a lot. I do think your lockdown is pretty similar to ours. But we are a smaller nation of course.
Norway is also very different in its population density and how they are spread out. The UK and Italy are fairly similar.
Pritti Patel doing another press conference (popcorn at the ready).
It really doesn't feel like the UK is winning. Supposed peak was meant to be the 8th of April and we have only got just under 100 less dying over 2 weeks later.