SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Tbf to this government, it’s quite a feat to spend that much money to end up backing yourself into the sort of corner whereby you’re open to being lectured about privacy by the likes of Apple and Google.
 
We’re not winning anything mate. Most people are flouting rules. Most don’t even know what they are anymore.
I don't really know what the official rules are now. I just took took the decision a couple of months ago to follow my own rules, as the govt clearly want this herd immunity to go ahead, without directly saying so. So wearing mask when going to shops, avoiding gatherings etc. is all down to my own choice.

Ridiculous that they're considering opening pubs in July.
 
I have heard that when we tested it in France in April but I'm not sure about what it implicates. Does that mean that the chances of mid to long term immunity are limited or is that irrelevant?

I think it’s possible to be immune despite not having any IgG actually circulating in your bloodstream. Long term immunity is about being able to rapidly produce the necessary Ig’s, rather than having them constantly in your blood. I’m not sure though. I feel a bit embarrassed that I don’t know for certain. I probably should :o

@africanspur
@Arruda

Help a brother out!
 
I think it’s possible to be immune despite not having any IgG actually circulating in your bloodstream. Long term immunity is about being able to rapidly produce the necessary Ig’s, rather than having them constantly in your blood. I’m not sure though. I feel a bit embarrassed that I don’t know for certain. I probably should :o

@africanspur
@Arruda

Help a brother out!

This part is one of the reasons I asked you.

In this study, we observed that IgG levels and neutralizing antibodies in a high proportion of individuals who recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection start to decrease within 2–3 months after infection. In another analysis of the dynamics of neutralizing antibody titers in eight convalescent patients with COVID-19, four patients showed decreased neutralizing antibodies approximately 6–7 weeks after illness onset30. One mathematical model also suggests a short duration of immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection31.
 
Highest daily toll in over two months apparently:

 
It's extremely frustrating how the government can lie so poorly about the contact tracing app and the development process. Mainly because they'll get away with it for the most part despite the utter incompetence of their decision-making.

I think it's dangerous to keep calling it incompetence. Let's call it like it is, it's corruption...

https://www.theguardian.com/technol...with-vote-leave-wins-new-coronavirus-contract

The so called 'incompetents' will come out of all this a hell of a lot richer that's for sure.
 
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@massi83

This was what I mentioned a while back re serology surveys missing loads of people who have been infected. 40% of asymptomatic patients became seronegative during the convalescent phase (13.9% of symptomatic patients)

The Abbott test instruction manual admits its only reliable if done within 14 days of infection.
Thanks! I quickly read through it now. The sample size is quite small. No details on the antibody tests, they probably have improved from Feb-Apr.

All of the repeat studies I have seen so far have had an increasing trend in the antibody results. For instance Stockholm about 4%,7%,9% and now 10%, for consecutive 2 week periods. In this case the difference between first and last being 6 weeks. We know that Stockholm has been on a downward trend since early April. So if the detectable antibody results would be considerably declining already in less than 2 months Stockholm should be plateuing or declining in antibody results.

Does it have an effect, yes definitely. A large effect, depends on your definitions.

We were talking about Bergamo. It had 25% result, can it be in reality 30%, yes. Can it be 50%, no.
 
I think it's dangerous to keep calling it incompetence. Let's call it like it is, it's corruption...

https://www.theguardian.com/technol...with-vote-leave-wins-new-coronavirus-contract

The so called 'incompetents' will come out of all this a hell of a lot richer that's for sure.
yes it's corruption. Any software developer will tell you that getting even just approval under the existing Apple scheme can be a tortuous process. Somehow claiming they could get Apple to change position is just bullshit created after the fact to cover up handing out the contract to a mate, no doubt for some sort of kickback or free holiday.
 
I don't really know what the official rules are now. I just took took the decision a couple of months ago to follow my own rules, as the govt clearly want this herd immunity to go ahead, without directly saying so. So wearing mask when going to shops, avoiding gatherings etc. is all down to my own choice.

Ridiculous that they're considering opening pubs in July.
Very wise to wear a mask, in my view. Out here in Italy all the bigger shops have hand sanitiser stands and special bins at the doors, many offer free disposable gloves and of course, we're all wearing masks when we leave the house. It's easy to get hold of cheap masks, gloves and sanitiser, too. I saw someone without a mask yesterday, she stood at the door and the owner brought her out a free mask.

I'm so tuned-in to the mask requirement that it's become second nature. I have proper ones for going into shops, and lightweight ones for dog-walking when I'm outdoors.
 
Very wise to wear a mask, in my view. Out here in Italy all the bigger shops have hand sanitiser stands and special bins at the doors, many offer free disposable gloves and of course, we're all wearing masks when we leave the house. It's easy to get hold of cheap masks, gloves and sanitiser, too. I saw someone without a mask yesterday, she stood at the door and the owner brought her out a free mask.

I'm so tuned-in to the mask requirement that it's become second nature. I have proper ones for going into shops, and lightweight ones for dog-walking when I'm outdoors.

Interesting that you wear one just for going outdoors. Is that your personal preference, or is it something that most in Italy are doing? I only wear one when going to indoors places, as thought the open space, and not being in direct contact with anyone for more than a couple of seconds would be relatively safe, but may need to invest in some surgical masks..

Here in Birmingham, I'm one of the minority who wears a mask in the shops now, would say around 90% of people here now don't wear a mask or follow social distancing inside shops, which is extremely worrying when we;re still at +200 deaths a day.
 
Wait, does this mean they are saying herd immunity has been achieved?

UK's Covid-19 alert level reduced from four to three

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53106673
Still in general circulation. Herd immunity will be level 2, probably.

_112607170_r_alert_level_v4_640-nc.png
 
I find it near-impossible to believe anything the government comes out with (it all seems so self-serving, as if their continuing to hold power is more important than anything). And I'm not normally a cynical person.
 
Interesting that you wear one just for going outdoors. Is that your personal preference, or is it something that most in Italy are doing? I only wear one when going to indoors places, as thought the open space, and not being in direct contact with anyone for more than a couple of seconds would be relatively safe, but may need to invest in some surgical masks..

Here in Birmingham, I'm one of the minority who wears a mask in the shops now, would say around 90% of people here now don't wear a mask or follow social distancing inside shops, which is extremely worrying when we;re still at +200 deaths a day.

Wearing one indoors seems sensible. Or, at the very least, considerate of others. I can see no good reason to wear one outdoors.
 
I find it near-impossible to believe anything the government comes out with (it all seems so self-serving, as if their continuing to hold power is more important than anything). And I'm not normally a cynical person.
You’re a wise man Steve.

Are you still writing btw?
 
Hell, I'm not even Ernie Wise. :D

Written nothing new for some years, mate.
 
I think it’s possible to be immune despite not having any IgG actually circulating in your bloodstream. Long term immunity is about being able to rapidly produce the necessary Ig’s, rather than having them constantly in your blood. I’m not sure though. I feel a bit embarrassed that I don’t know for certain. I probably should :o

@africanspur
@Arruda

Help a brother out!

At least you've been as honest as possible. Have to say the strategic medical community (not the day to day life-saving NHS nurses and doctors) have not come up smelling of roses in 2020. Imagine being invaded by another country and our army/navy/air force strategists going "oh feck, this actually happened? Give us a minute." :(
 
I think it’s possible to be immune despite not having any IgG actually circulating in your bloodstream. Long term immunity is about being able to rapidly produce the necessary Ig’s, rather than having them constantly in your blood. I’m not sure though. I feel a bit embarrassed that I don’t know for certain. I probably should :o

@africanspur
@Arruda

Help a brother out!
I'm not sure. Memory B cells make direct contact with the antigens and then replicate clonally secreting loads of soluble antibodies. However I think this contact is mediated through cell-wall antibodies, whether these are supposed to react in serologic testing I don't know.

We test for Anti-HBs antibodies to know if Hepatitis B vaccine is still providing immunity or whether it needs a reinforcement... Don't know if this applies to all diseases.

I loved Immunology, it was one of my favourite basic sciences in University, but it's been a while. Kuby's Immunology is one of my favourite uni text books.
 
Tests on sewerage samples in Italy show that the first cases of covid were in the country by mid-December:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53106444

We had this letter from the kids school back on 16th December

16th December 2019

Dear parent/guardian or staff member,

Re: Flu-like illness at XXXX Primary School
This letter is to inform you that we have received reports of several children absent
from the school with a flu-like illness in recent days.
There are a number of viruses which can cause an influenza-like illness and at
present, the influenza (flu) virus itself is not circulating widely in the community.
Most children will have a relatively mild illness, and will recover at home
without needing treatment. However, it is important that your child stays at
home if they have flu-like symptoms. Typically, these include a sudden fever
(38oC or greater) and a cough, often with sore throat, runny nose, muscle ache,
shortness of breath, tiredness or headache.
If they have these symptoms, your child should not attend school and not mix with
others outside the home. Those who do not have symptoms of flu can undertake
their usual activities outside of the home as normal.
General infection control practices and good hand hygiene can help to reduce
transmission of all viruses, including flu. This includes:
• Covering the nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, using a tissue when
possible.
• Disposing of dirty tissues promptly and carefully.
• Washing hands frequently with soap and water to reduce the spread of flu virus
from hands to face or to other people.
• Cleaning hard surfaces (e.g. door handles) using a normal cleaning product.
Children with flu-like illness should be excluded from school until they have
recovered.
If your child has a long-term health condition, such as those below, and develops
flu-like symptoms, you should seek advice from your GP.
If you think your child may have flu, and you attend your GP practice, please show
them this letter.
 
We had this letter from the kids school back on 16th December

16th December 2019

Dear parent/guardian or staff member,

Re: Flu-like illness at XXXX Primary School
This letter is to inform you that we have received reports of several children absent
from the school with a flu-like illness in recent days.
There are a number of viruses which can cause an influenza-like illness and at
present, the influenza (flu) virus itself is not circulating widely in the community.
Most children will have a relatively mild illness, and will recover at home
without needing treatment. However, it is important that your child stays at
home if they have flu-like symptoms. Typically, these include a sudden fever
(38oC or greater) and a cough, often with sore throat, runny nose, muscle ache,
shortness of breath, tiredness or headache.
If they have these symptoms, your child should not attend school and not mix with
others outside the home. Those who do not have symptoms of flu can undertake
their usual activities outside of the home as normal.
General infection control practices and good hand hygiene can help to reduce
transmission of all viruses, including flu. This includes:
• Covering the nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, using a tissue when
possible.
• Disposing of dirty tissues promptly and carefully.
• Washing hands frequently with soap and water to reduce the spread of flu virus
from hands to face or to other people.
• Cleaning hard surfaces (e.g. door handles) using a normal cleaning product.
Children with flu-like illness should be excluded from school until they have
recovered.
If your child has a long-term health condition, such as those below, and develops
flu-like symptoms, you should seek advice from your GP.
If you think your child may have flu, and you attend your GP practice, please show
them this letter.
That letter is really disconcerting, I wonder what they were seeing then that bothered them.

I remember watching the anti-flu public health ads earlier this year before the whole covid thing kicked off (complete with handwashing advice etc), but I'm not really sure exactly when they started airing - nor do I remember them in previous years but maybe that's just my selective memory kicking in. It would be interesting to put a timeline on those, if anyone knows.
 
Interesting that you wear one just for going outdoors. Is that your personal preference, or is it something that most in Italy are doing? I only wear one when going to indoors places, as thought the open space, and not being in direct contact with anyone for more than a couple of seconds would be relatively safe, but may need to invest in some surgical masks..

Here in Birmingham, I'm one of the minority who wears a mask in the shops now, would say around 90% of people here now don't wear a mask or follow social distancing inside shops, which is extremely worrying when we;re still at +200 deaths a day.

It is the law to wear a mask in any public place, in some parts of the country at least. I am not sure about the rules further South as they never had as many cases.

I have a couple of friends who drove down from Switzerland to surf yesterday and they were refused entry to motorway service stations because they didn't have masks.
 
I know I advocate for analyzing cases by state or with the EU by country, but here is a broad snapshot of where we’re at in those respective regions:

 
Almost two weeks since the first big BLM protests across the UK, and thankfully, no rise in cases or localised spikes AFAIK.
 
Interesting that you wear one just for going outdoors. Is that your personal preference, or is it something that most in Italy are doing? I only wear one when going to indoors places, as thought the open space, and not being in direct contact with anyone for more than a couple of seconds would be relatively safe, but may need to invest in some surgical masks..

Here in Birmingham, I'm one of the minority who wears a mask in the shops now, would say around 90% of people here now don't wear a mask or follow social distancing inside shops, which is extremely worrying when we;re still at +200 deaths a day.
It's compulsory to wear a mask here both inside shops and on the street, it has been right from the beginning. I honestly think it's helpful, and at the very least it reminds people that we're still fighting this virus.
 
It's compulsory to wear a mask here both inside shops and on the street, it has been right from the beginning. I honestly think it's helpful, and at the very least it reminds people that we're still fighting this virus.

That is actually a solid reason to wear a mask outdoors. I stand corrected.
 
That letter is really disconcerting, I wonder what they were seeing then that bothered them.

I remember watching the anti-flu public health ads earlier this year before the whole covid thing kicked off (complete with handwashing advice etc), but I'm not really sure exactly when they started airing - nor do I remember them in previous years but maybe that's just my selective memory kicking in. It would be interesting to put a timeline on those, if anyone knows.

I’m not sure about exact timelines but I know there was a lot of swine flu going round in the first quarter of this year.
 
There has been a few outbreaks in Anglesey this week , 60 odd cases in an abattoir which has now shut , a few shops have shut also and the army have set up a testing centre. Schools are not opening now and it will be decided in the next days whether the planned easing of travel restrictions in July will go ahead or we may stay as we are in lock down .
 
Over 49,000 new cases in Brazil today and over 30,000 in the U.S too. Europe seems over the worse but South America is going to take a big hit along with plenty of States in the U.S.
 
Over 49,000 new cases in Brazil today and over 30,000 in the U.S too. Europe seems over the worse but South America is going to take a big hit along with plenty of States in the U.S.

Peru and Chile are getting hit hard and Argentina is ramping up (while Colombia and Ecuador are above in cases but steady) rapidly going 1k-2k a day and increasing.

The worst on Brazil is that Bolsonaro go against the governors lockdown measurements and encourages normal life despite the numbers. And the biggest issue with this 49k new cases is despite their low testing capabilities
 
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We had this letter from the kids school back on 16th December

16th December 2019

Dear parent/guardian or staff member,

Re: Flu-like illness at XXXX Primary School
This letter is to inform you that we have received reports of several children absent
from the school with a flu-like illness in recent days.
There are a number of viruses which can cause an influenza-like illness and at
present, the influenza (flu) virus itself is not circulating widely in the community.
Most children will have a relatively mild illness, and will recover at home
without needing treatment. However, it is important that your child stays at
home if they have flu-like symptoms. Typically, these include a sudden fever
(38oC or greater) and a cough, often with sore throat, runny nose, muscle ache,
shortness of breath, tiredness or headache.
If they have these symptoms, your child should not attend school and not mix with
others outside the home. Those who do not have symptoms of flu can undertake
their usual activities outside of the home as normal.
General infection control practices and good hand hygiene can help to reduce
transmission of all viruses, including flu. This includes:
• Covering the nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, using a tissue when
possible.
• Disposing of dirty tissues promptly and carefully.
• Washing hands frequently with soap and water to reduce the spread of flu virus
from hands to face or to other people.
• Cleaning hard surfaces (e.g. door handles) using a normal cleaning product.
Children with flu-like illness should be excluded from school until they have
recovered.
If your child has a long-term health condition, such as those below, and develops
flu-like symptoms, you should seek advice from your GP.
If you think your child may have flu, and you attend your GP practice, please show
them this letter.

I very much doubt that was SARS-CoV-19 that early on.
 
I think @Regulus Arcturus Black predicted exactly this. At least that’s entirely the opposite of what I took from his posts. Alas “it’s too early to judge” or something.

My stance hasn’t changed at all, lots of people will die from this around the World until a vaccine is found. Sweden was never going to get overwhelmed and never came close, we now are close to under 200 people in ICU; that was always my biggest argument and that it wouldn’t spread like wildfire around such a massive country with a small population (it’s still Stockholm that has the vast majority of deaths and cases).

Cities that has tonnes of virus circulating early March were fecked regardless (Stockholm, London, Belgium, New York etc etc). Cities that didn’t (like the case of Malmö still) will probably get a big dose in the autumn instead.

I have never claimed that people wouldn’t die, quite the opposite
 
My stance hasn’t changed at all, lots of people will die from this around the World until a vaccine is found. Sweden was never going to get overwhelmed and never came close, we now are close to under 200 people in ICU; that was always my biggest argument and that it wouldn’t spread like wildfire around such a massive country with a small population (it’s still Stockholm that has the vast majority of deaths and cases).

Cities that has tonnes of virus circulating early March were fecked regardless (Stockholm, London, Belgium, New York etc etc). Cities that didn’t (like the case of Malmö still) will probably get a big dose in the autumn instead.

I have never claimed that people wouldn’t die, quite the opposite
How about that 26% on 1.5. in Stockholm, reality was 10%. And Västra Götaland that was doing so great has more than double the deaths than whole of Finland. You got most things totally wrong.
 
How about that 26% on 1.5. in Stockholm, reality was 10%. And Västra Götaland that was doing so great has more than double the deaths than whole of Finland. You got most things totally wrong.

I didn’t get the percentage wrong, the FHM here did in that case.

Västra Götaland still has less than 700 deaths, not sure what I got wrong there?
Skåne still has better stats than Copenhagen county, so much that Denmark are letting anyone who can prove they live there into Denmark :lol:

After so many months you would seriously hope that people would begin to understand that there are massive regional differences with this virus (@JPRouve seems to be all over this fact), Sweden is a perfect case of that, so many people want to compare Sweden to their neighbors only and ignore countries like Belgium, Holland and the UK but hell, even in Sweden the differences are enormous from county to county. No other county aside from Stockholm has been smashed in any way at all despite Sweden‘s apparently “failed” strategy.
 
I didn’t get the percentage wrong, the FHM here did in that case.
:lol: almost as good at moving the goal posts as Tegnell. It has been sad to see that whole of Stockholm has been under some sort of syndrome regarding Tegnell, maybe there is some word or phrase for it.
 
:lol: almost as good at moving the goal posts as Tegnell. It has been sad to see that whole of Stockholm has been under some sort of syndrome regarding Tegnell, maybe there is some word or phrase for it.

That would make sense if we weren’t the only country in the world not to be held hostage by our government :lol:

I think he’s liked here because he’s delivered on his promise that we could flatten the curve without lockdown. His other claim, that lockdown countries are “just kicking the can down the road” can’t be proven wrong or right until probably early 2021, I’m sure he’ll get a lot of shit then if proven wrong.
For anyone not living in Stockholm it has been proven without any doubt that a full lockdown for every other county in the country would’ve been absolutely ridiculous and meaningless when you look at the stats.
 
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