That’s definitely what I’m hoping will happen. Only I would argue that it is the best case scenario. Can you think of any other realistic outcome which is any better?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
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That’s definitely what I’m hoping will happen. Only I would argue that it is the best case scenario. Can you think of any other realistic outcome which is any better?
No shit! And yet they didn’t change direction, so what does that make it?
You’re being far too binary. It was never just a choice between the economy and old people dying. The whole premise of letting the virus spread amongst younger people was that eventually enough of them would become immune to prevent the virus circulating in the community, thus allowing vulnerable/elderly to return to normal life at some point in the next few years. A vaccine is just the same herd immunity outcome by a different method.
The Aus/NZ expectation that we will definitely have a virus in 12-24 months is arguably just as big a gamble. It’s no life at all for elderly people to stay locked away, in fear of seeing their grandkids, indefinitely. And long term complete isolation from the rest of the world will have the sort of devastating (yes) economic impact that could make the remaining years of most of your elderly utterly miserable. If a safe, effective virus takes several years (most likely scenario) or is never developed (possible) then countries like Sweden will be ahead of the curve when it comes to getting life back to “normal”. That’s the main rationale for their strategy, so it’s unfair to keep banging on about them letting old people die to save the economy.
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I don’t think they will lock us down again. The damage to the economy of another lockdown would cause unbelievable unemployment. It’s really frustrating that people can’t understand how important it is to socially distance, but if hundreds of deaths a day don’t make them think twice, nothing will.
I don’t have a problem with people being outside, I’m not advocating another lockdown, or shaming people for being outside. I just don’t understand how hard it is to sit two meters apart or put your rubbish in the bin.
Also, for all the hope I had with the generation below mine (At least in my area) they are being the dumbest age group of all. Not at school or college, but being in groups of 10-15 not giving a shit. It’s really disappointing.
Boris is quickly becoming a Trump impersonator saying all the patriotic positive lines whilst his underlings reinterpret the message into something more sensible.
You can't blame those beach goers when the PM says he wants to see bustle and that it's a patriotic duty to go to the pub. Boris has set the message and he'll be the one to be accountable for any consequences.
The entire messaging on 1 metre plus has been a shambles. They could have spent weeks explaining the next step might be a reduction in limited scenarios but no he had to do it in a way that he thought was Churchillian.
You can't blame those beach goers when the PM says he wants to see bustle and that it's a patriotic duty to go to the pub. Boris has set the message and he'll be the one to be accountable for any consequences.
The entire messaging on 1 metre plus has been a shambles. They could have spent weeks explaining the next step might be a reduction in limited scenarios but no he had to do it in a way that he thought was Churchillian.
I think the whole situation is more nuanced than livelihood vs life/death though. Obviously if you say "what's more important, preventing death or having a job?" the answer is simple. But everything we do is defined by the worlds economy. We don't save any lives if there's no money, and very soon there won't be if people don't get back to work.
Could be later this year is the point. It probably won't be. And there is a chance it will be years, or never. We don't know. There's risk everywhere, people just need to be responsible and get on with their lives. Many, many more people die from avoidable circumstances every day, but we don't worry. Time to change the mindset and stop being scared.
But they did. They did change their approach towards carehomes.
Oh, I thought you were putting forward the best scenario as no spikes at all, just a steady stream across the board. Agreed that seems unrealistic.
I suppose the only realistic outcome that is better would be something to do with treatment. It wouldn't be an alternative to that broader strategy of contact tracing and rapid local responses, it would just be another layer on top. Something that greatly increases recovery time, limits the most harmful effects, etc.
There's been a number of positive stories so a big step forward in treatment before the vaccine sounds possible.
The Swedish approach has always been about flock immunity. I am Norwegian and we have a whole different approach here.
As the poster above said, this was not an economic decision from the Swedes. They choose to trust the expertise (Tegnell and Co) and these guys make their decisions not on economic foundations.
The major fail in Sweden has been protecting people at care homes. There have been loads of deaths there and this is also the main area Tegnell has taken criticism. He also says Sweden can’t be compared to other countries as they have come further in the pandemic. Statistics need to be compared in some years when the situation is over.
Exactly this....If you want to know why the English Tourist is accepted through gritted teeth around the world then look at Bournemouth and other beauty spots. Our reputation for being loutish and behaving badly is being shown on our own streets for once. This will also make Brexit negotiations harder because the rest of Europe might well decide that they prefer their resorts not to be over-run with marauding English louts and try to keep it that way.
Okay, before I start getting mad - I know it's not a joy to watch, but couldn't avoid watching Liverpool fans in the street celebrating on TV.
Looked like loads of Liverpool supporters gathered together yesterday after they won the league. How many were gathered? On TV it seemed completely reckless and completely the opposite of what should be achieved by opening up the league again. People were closely together, drunk and yelling like crazy.
Just gotta understand if this was a small crowd on TV or how large?
On the surface this even seems completely hollow when they bang out about justice (even in crowd-incidents), but actively participate in spreading a deadly virus that can cause deaths, so wont get myself mad, until I've heard some facts. How big was the gathering yesterday? England is not exactly free of corona-virus.
If Liverpool fans first get mad at Liverpool's major for wanting to avoid these situations by not opening up football, and then go out and do them massively, I seriously think they should consider some basic things of life.
Looked like loads of Liverpool supporters gathered together yesterday after they won the league. How many were gathered? On TV it seemed completely reckless and completely the opposite of what should be achieved by opening up the league again. People were closely together, drunk and yelling like crazy.
Just gotta understand if this was a small crowd on TV or how large?
On the surface this even seems completely hollow when they bang out about justice (even in crowd-incidents), but actively participate in spreading a deadly virus that can cause deaths, so wont get myself mad, until I've heard some facts. How big was the gathering yesterday? England is not exactly free of corona-virus.
If Liverpool fans first get mad at Liverpool's major for wanting to avoid these situations by not opening up football, and then go out and do them massively, I seriously think they should consider some basic things of life.
Fair points. In terms of schooling I agree. We probably should be preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.
Unfortunately the UK government's ineptitude is hidden behind a mask of bravado.
2,000 people according to police. A big majority of the 2,000 were probably the same people complaining about people at Bournemouth beach, and protests in London over the past couple of weeks, but because it's the first time in 30 years they'll happily forget about the last 3 months.
I suppose the justification is if the long tern economic and educational effects, as in more people living in poverty and the health consequences that go with it. children, especially in poorer area's growing up having had an even worse education then they would normally have had,and therefore having less opportunities going forward.
You also have to look at it in terms of the longer people stay in lock down the worse the economic situation is going to be, the UK government is looking to borrow more money this year then it has ever. That is going to have consequences. which are going to come in the form of cuts and tax rises. This been a conservative government mainly cuts. Which means schools are going to face cuts, NHS is going to face cuts, you name it its going to face cuts and those cuts come on top of the cuts from the 2008 crash. The longer the lock-down happens the deeper those cuts get as the larger the borrowing will be.
You also have to remember for most of the population the economic impact of Covid is going to be worse than the health impact. Currently between 40-60 thousand people have died from covid (depending on who you believe). While around 1.5 million people have lost their jobs. We haven't even really seen the true impact of the economic impact because of the furlough scheme, which over 6 million people are on and the longer the lock-down goes on the fewer of them will have companies to go back to.
While of course people dying is not even comparable to some one loosing their job, but for most people the worry over the next few years is how am i going to afford to pay my rent/mortgage provide for my kids in a world which is going through likely the biggest economic down turn ever and with a government that will be so hamstrung by debt that it is making cuts to every public service going. Of course most people main concern is going to be the economic as that 95+% more chance of having an impact on them.
I'm not saying all this means we should let people die in the short term, god know, we all know people who are vulnerable and we love and want to protect. I just think their is no right or wrong answer regarding what the best way forward as every options has horrendous consequences. What the government is trying to do is walk the line between limiting the damage to the economy by opening up were it can and still trying to have some kind of social distancing to reduce the spread. In fairness as much as I hate Borris and in general a labour voter ( i have voted lib dem a couple of times) it probably the only way forward. Unfortunately you thousands of twats crowding beaches and partying outside anfield and havn't got thier head round why we are tying to do this balancing act.
The bolded is exactly what ive been saying this whole morning.
I am norwegian too btw, and have my whole family in Norway. Just lived in Sweden the last years.
I actually think a really effective treatment is even less likely than a really effective vaccine. We’ve historically been pretty shit at developing systemic antivirals. A “cure for the common cold“ is a meme for an unattainable Holy Grail of medicine. And this is essentially the same virus! Basically, it’s a complete nightmare trying to develop a medicine to kill something that passes in and out of the cells in your body, without damaging those cells as badly as the virus would otherwise.
I was probably a bit vague about my best case scenario. A steady stream of cases, with some spikes, but nothing extreme enough to cause a nationwide lockdown. If we could keep this much on top of the virus for the next few years while living a relatively normal life (schools and universities open, socially distanced restaurants and bars but no concerts, night clubs, festivals or crowded football stadia) that would be great. The best I could hope for. Unfortunately the last few weeks have severely eroded my faith in the public doing what it takes to make this happen.
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It was a massive crowd, and there was also a massive crowd of photographers and media there...which will have drawn in an even bigger crowd. This was obviously going to happen and is why they shouldn't have restarted playing the games. I'd rather no players were out there playing and gambling with potentially damaging their lungs irreparably. No trophy is worth that!
However this is not by accident. This is all part of the Governments "defence" for when a second wave hits us. They will claim that this time they have to be more draconian, and will not have to provide the financial support of furlough scheme etc as they are having to it because of the unruly actions of Liverpool fans / BLM protesters / Tourists etc.
For example, all of the credible universities are preparing for term to start in September but with the expectation that there will be a need for a further lockdown at some point this year. So they are putting in place mechanisms that mean they can continue to operate even under a strict lockdown. Schools however don't have the same physical or monetary resources so will struggle to do this sort of planning and will be hit hard when a second lockdown comes. People will face a stark choice to either keep their kids in a potentially dangerous school environment or not go to work and get laid off as the furlough scheme will have wound down by then.
For those using WW2 analogies...the only thing I can say is that there is one bit that is possibly going to be like WW2...in that just when people thought things were going to get better - the end of the war...they actually got worse. Bread and potato's had not been rationed throughout the war, but just after it ended a combination of harsh winters and wet summers destroyed much of the agricultural output so these were rationed AFTER the war ended.
Still, it's not like we have any sort of looming climate crisis or Economic meltdown with the rest of Europe around the corner anytime soon, so I'm sure we'll be fine!
@buchansleftleg It sounds like a Tories wet dream, they get to blame the scousers and black people for the second wave now.
Why blame the Tories? The news over the last couple of days in the U.K. has confirmed a suspicion I have held for some time now. The younger generation without doubt have a harder time owning their own homes or enjoying jobs for life but they are better educated than ever previous generations were yet they have demonstrated that they lack basic common sense and are just as much motivated by self interest as previous generations.
yes - watch how this will be blamed on people "on furlough" so they can claim the system is being abused and so has to be withdrawn early. I actually think they are hoping for some rioting to happen so they can get some new sweeping powers through their kangaroo parliament.
For sure. People may have good moral intentions but a lot of it goes out of the window when we think we're 'not living the right thing'.
What does this mean? That we should just embrace the idea of living in a more selfish society that is unwilling to make the sacrifices demanded of them in times of great need? What would have happened if people then had decided that was the right attitude to have?
Oh. Well then we're mostly on the same page! Obviously I wasn't quite aware of that on the treatment side of things. I just noticed a lot of positive stories popping up over the last few weeks, and while I had no idea how credible any of those specific developments were, it did give off the impression that a leap forward in that area was possible. That's unfortunate!
Where we differ is I'm a lot less pessimistic about the public. People will stretch the boundaries and sometimes it will lead to terrible outcomes - bars in Texas, raves in Manchester - but sometimes it will lead to positive outcomes, like Black Lives Matter. It seemed a little unbelievable that such huge gatherings wouldn't lead to a massive spike, even with the understanding that outdoor gatherings were less risky. So maybe packed football stadiums are possible, for example. As we get a better understanding of those variables I think we'll get a better idea of what we can and can't do, and I think the general public will respond to them. Not right away, but early and often enough to prevent things from running out of control. But then that's more just a general belief about society, the evidence is a lot less clear...
This makes me pause about my own personal view though. It's an odd thought that you could be passing through the world happy as Larry, while silently killing people you hadn't even recognised.
What news are you on about ?
It’s the exact same pattern in Ireland (and presumably the UK too?) The median age of people getting infected has come right down. And for obvious reasons. As we come out of lockdown the people less scared of the virus will take more risks. You can see it happening too. Gangs of teenagers hanging out of each other in the parks. Walk down a street late at night and you can hear the house parties.
In a way, I’m ok with this. I’ve never felt eradication was a realistic goal so if we could find a way to get everyone under 40 infected as quickly as possible, so much the better. Obviously the older, more vulnerable people need to be protected but maybe the best way forward is to rely on them to take the necessary steps to protect themselves without shutting down society as a whole?
The really tricky bit will be what happens when the vulnerable are forced into close proximity with younger people for longish periods of time. Offices and public transport etc. I will be telling my parents to stay the hell out of pubs and restaurants for the foreseeable future and they’re retired, so offices aren’t a risk. I would be very worried about them if they were still working or needed to take regular public transport.
The Liverpool and Bournemouth gatherings yesterday completely undermines the lockdown and the work the NHS has done, there'll be a huge second wave in the UK.
It's sad that the majority of society is comprised of idiots who do that, utterly selfish.
Further lockdowns will follow in the coming month thanks to them.
It's sad that the majority of society is comprised of idiots who do that, utterly selfish.
Further lockdowns will follow in the coming month thanks to them.
Manchester rave. Brixton incident. South coast debacle. All in the last few days when we are desperately trying to get this pandemic under control.
Exactly how I feel too. I want to make sure that my kids have their father around for as long as possible. Mines died at 37 when I was a nipper, I don’t want that for my kids. I will do whatever it takes, it’s not easy but i will do it.
on my estate in the last few days I’ve heard of 6 different people with symptoms. Even though Ireland’s numbers are reasonably low I still see the ambulance blue lighting it every single night up and down the road outside my house.
I think this area probably has it rife. People are just walking round doing what they want. A community centre worker that we know told us that before they locked down they had someone swab the centre and the kids playground. They found Covid everywhere on surfaces, door handles etc.
people are getting complacent in the rush for getting back to work, getting their haircut etc. I really really hope I’m being overly cautious but I’ve a feeling it will bite us on the bum again. Hard.
btw no chance we are sending our kids back until we are comfortable- this comes from someone who lives in Ireland and is on the school BoM
Why didn't that happen after the Black Lives Matter protests (and counter-protests)?
Yeah I'd assume it's the same in the UK but can't see any figures for it.
Agreed that if it was possible for the least at risk sections of the population to get it while the oldest populations were simultaneously shielded, that wouldn't be such a bad thing. Would still have some severe consequences but I think a lot of people would be ok with the trade-offs. It's hard to imagine that really working for the older / more vulnerable section of the population though. If it was for a very short burst for a defined period of time, maybe. But I know plenty who are desperate to get back to the pub, not because they're alcoholics but just because that was a place they went to for community, it was another home, and it's a symbol of leisure that they worked hard to afford themselves. They just wouldn't accept the notion that the pubs are open to young folks, but they're not welcome there. There's already some odd divide between older and younger generations and a formalised stratification of society over a sustained period could erupt into something else. Most I know have coped surprisingly well with being cut-off from family, but it's impossible to imagine that not reaching a breaking point.
I would like to think that older / more vulnerable populations working in offices will be afforded complete flexibility for as long as they need it, but a lot of older populations are working part-time in places like supermarkets, and reliant on that income or the sense of purpose that comes with working. It's just hard to imagine constructing a society where older generations are shielded, while still maintaining an acceptable quality of life, while the rest of the world goes on with a semi-normal life in the hope of eventually making things safe enough for everyone.
It'd be great if we could use this as a way of restructuring society that tackles some of the generational divisions, plots a better path forward for the environment, leads to a better appreciation of hygiene and healthcare, etc. all while making it easier for us to deal with the virus in the immediate future, but it's so fecking complex...
Thing is, I’m not a cautious person at all. I am an adrenaline junkie, I love risk. I’m a spontaneous fecker too and act very impulsively normally but I can honestly say that this virus is the first thing that has really made me think about my own vulnerability.
Like you, I really couldn’t think of anything much worse than not being around for my kids, it’s a really sobering and terrifying thought.
If it’s what your instincts are telling you then stay with caution, I haven’t read anything anywhere that’s convincing me that this thing is going anywhere so if people want to risk it then fine, I’ll happily stay bunkered up with my family, we’re doing ok for now and the kids seem ok (a bit too ok with it all as it gives them reason to play more video games
).You mention ambulances, we live on a main road in between Derby and Swadlincote, both have ambulance stations and right from the off we’ve noticed loads more ambulances. Not all will be racing around after Covid but we’re in no doubt the virus has increased our awareness of the volume of ambulances screaming through the village.
I also know two people from our village who caught it at choir practice. They spent weeks in hospital and both in ICU. Thankfully both have come through but even now, 8 - 10 weeks after having it, they struggle walking more than 100yds.
I just don’t want to catch it.
No need for the knee jerk, give it a couple of weeks. We had the same rhetoric after VE Day, protests etc.
Measures in the Netherlands are being lifted further. There wkll no longer be a limit on people at events from the 1st of July and high schools will reopen completely. Wonder how it will go, but signs here are quite good. We had a day with 0 deaths for the first time this week.
here’s where I’m at
It’s beyond irritating when you see crowds like the ones on beaches, out celebrating whatever, milling around without a mask in sight. These are the people who don’t have the mental fortitude to do what’s needed, these are the ones bending the will of the government from properly following the science and yet ironically these people’s actions will lead to longer lockdowns for the vulnerable or old.
You all know my health circumstances from threads here, been cocooning since the day the schools closed here, with my wife and 2 young kids. Though we do have a garden and take the kids to the park a few mornings at 7am before everyone else to see the duckThankfully my eldest kids school have been great, great online resources, great class zooms, teachers checking in every day and great support for the teachers. My youngest one missed out on the last 3 months of his pre-schooling and they’ve been rubbish, no resources, no contact. I worry more about the social aspect rather than educational for him though. He’s developed a couple of ocd type ticks in the last few months which could be anxiety related.
my mum is in a dementia care home up north and hasn’t had any visitors in 2 months as they are on lockdown.
my eldest brother passed away a couple of weeks ago from a heart attack. We weren’t able to get up for the funeral and off course my mum couldn’t attend either. I’m really keen to get up and at least see the grave and say goodbye. No, I cant drive so it would be public transport for around 6 hours in the day to get there, and no hotel to stay in.
We haven’t seen my wife’s elderly parents since lockdown, they’re in England.
My wife and I are just about holding together at the moment. We are starting to get on each other’s nerves I think. The only time I get a bit of “me” space is in the bathroom
So yeah the morons are beyond irritating. Selfish self serving wankers.
sorry for the rant, having a couple of low days.
It’s beyond irritating when you see crowds like the ones on beaches, out celebrating whatever, milling around without a mask in sight. These are the people who don’t have the mental fortitude to do what’s needed, these are the ones bending the will of the government from properly following the science and yet ironically these people’s actions will lead to longer lockdowns for the vulnerable or old.
You all know my health circumstances from threads here, been cocooning since the day the schools closed here, with my wife and 2 young kids. Though we do have a garden and take the kids to the park a few mornings at 7am before everyone else to see the duckThankfully my eldest kids school have been great, great online resources, great class zooms, teachers checking in every day and great support for the teachers. My youngest one missed out on the last 3 months of his pre-schooling and they’ve been rubbish, no resources, no contact. I worry more about the social aspect rather than educational for him though. He’s developed a couple of ocd type ticks in the last few months which could be anxiety related.
my mum is in a dementia care home up north and hasn’t had any visitors in 2 months as they are on lockdown.
my eldest brother passed away a couple of weeks ago from a heart attack. We weren’t able to get up for the funeral and off course my mum couldn’t attend either. I’m really keen to get up and at least see the grave and say goodbye. No, I cant drive so it would be public transport for around 6 hours in the day to get there, and no hotel to stay in.
We haven’t seen my wife’s elderly parents since lockdown, they’re in England.
My wife and I are just about holding together at the moment. We are starting to get on each other’s nerves I think. The only time I get a bit of “me” space is in the bathroom
So yeah the morons are beyond irritating. Selfish self serving wankers.
sorry for the rant, having a couple of low days.
@golden_blunder sounds like you've had a hell of a bad time lately. Must be agonising not being able to go to the grave to say bye.
I really, really hope things pick up in the next couple of months. Rant is totally justified
I really, really hope things pick up in the next couple of months. Rant is totally justified
This whole situation is the exact sort of thing to blame the government for. From 'I shook hands with everyone', to the delayed lockdown and 'it's just like flu'. Their messaging has been terrible throughout. Add to that the way they all bent over backwards to support Cummings' lies, of course many people are no longer following the advice they so loosely put out.
I suggest reading up on some of the measures used by governments in other countries where they have dealt with it much much better than here(there's many btw).
Thanks fella@golden_blunder sounds like you've had a hell of a bad time lately. Must be agonising not being able to go to the grave to say bye.
I really, really hope things pick up in the next couple of months. Rant is totally justified
Totally understandable dude from what I’ve just read. Thoughts are with you, as they are for anyone else struggling.
And because of that, I’m with you in my irritation of those just being dicks.
Stay strong, stay safe.
so sorry to hear that mate - you are doing the right thing and don't worry about your pre-schooler - that can be sorted out with lots of socialising later. My daughter went to a different pre-school to her reception class and she was so much more socialised than other kids who went straight from home into reception. Within a bit of time they all evened themselves out.
I can understand about the getting on each others nerves bit as well. thankfully I'm able to go out for a solitary bike ride every now and then - helps me get a bit more equilibrium when the home schooling is getting tense. I went on a work zoom call even though I have been furloughed and was glad to hear that others are struggling with their kids motivation to home school. It made me feel better to realise I wasn't alone in that.
take care and stay safe
That sucks, geebs. Sorry to hear you’ve got so much on your plate.
One minor bit of advice I would give is to try and find some “me time” other than in the jacks.
Ideally every day, at least ever second day, you should head off out on your own for a walk. Stick on some headphones, listen to some music or a (non stressful content) podcast. 30 minutes to an hour away from the missus and the kids will do wonders for your relationship with them. It’s not healthy to be in each other’s personal space, all day every day. Same advice goes to your other half too.
EDIT: bike ride good too, as per @buchansleftleg suggestion
Bollocks. It’s an absolute cop out by tossers itching to use any excuse to not obey the guidance. And before you start I am not saying that certain members of the government deserve anything other than prosecuting. But then so does everyone who deliberately breaks the rules without damned good reason.
I suppose if Cummings went and jumped under a train according to your view it would be a signal for everyone else to do the same. You say that the messaging has been terrible throughout. Thats an admission if ever I heard one that you knew better as has the rest of the population So to use it as an excuse is pathetic. To try to suggest that appalling behaviour of a substantial number of people is down to ’I shook hands with everyone’ or ‘Its just like flu’. makes them as moronic and imbecilic as the person making those assertions.
Rant over.
I'm so sorry to hear Geebs about your brother. Some alone time works great honestly as others have said. You're absolutely right that nobody wants situations like what you've had to endure and are enduring to persist but it's being prolonged because of selfishness and sometimes idiocy of others among other things. Best wishes.