Over 53k confirmed cases reported today. 
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SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Christmas lag or just the way it’s going?
I fecking hate this government.
Its a bit of both. Mental how quickly its going up.
But then again people are fecking stupid.
Yeah. I needed to go in to my local town centre to post something and it was crazy - like a normal day! People out eating food from the various vans, masks on only maybe 10% outside and probably 60% (worn correctly) inside, absolutely no social distancing. It’s a real shit show at the moment.
Thanks, both of you. @Brwned , those figures over 3000 hospitalizations are particularly concerning, even more so considering we have over 50000 new cases today.
I think I'm still in shock no further lockdown ( a proper one, at least matching those in France, Germany, Spain and Italy) has been announced.
Yep. I work with the people who produce those numbers here in Canada; it's actually even a little more complex. They look at long-term death numbers for the period in question, and also take demographic changes into account (how the population's size and make-up change due to deaths, births, and migration). Based on that, they calculate the range of expected deaths (the expected average, and the plus/minus ranges; see for example the Statistics Canada graph). The difference between the actual number of deaths and this expected average then produces the excess deaths number.
Of course, there are a few footnotes to that number. First, as I said, there is a range of expected deaths. Only one excess deaths number is provided, and that's based on the average number of expected deaths (i.e., the middle of the range); but the actual number of excess deaths could be anything between the top or bottom of the range of expected deaths. And second, the excess deaths number lacks context. Because of the lockdowns and hygiene measures, some diseases are not spreading as much as usual. For example, the flu season is reduced, and has led to reduced flu deaths. And as people are staying home, they are less likely to get into a car accident - and so on. On the other hand, due to the lockdowns, a lot of regular health care (like surgery, regular appointments and preventive screenings) have been suspended, leading to additional deaths, which are not directly caused by COVID-19 but are nonetheless caused by the pandemic.
It's hard to say what the exact impact is of each of those footnotes. But as a general indicator, the excess deaths number is much more interesting than the 'simple' number of COVID-19 deaths, which is certainly an underestimate (as people are not tested for COVID-19 consistently) and incomparable across countries (as different countries have different rules for when to attribute a death to COVID-19).
It’s just a matter of time now imho. We’re just slow and indecisive
Apparently they’re holding a meeting to discuss new tiers tomorrow, I’d be surprised if most of the uk isn’t just put into tier 4 It’s spiralling out of control again
Can we agree the guys below wish them love, prosperity and long life?
Anyway, let's move on.
Yeah they are. Hancock will be announcing the changes at 3PM tomorrow.
From what I’ve seen it’s suggesting the midlands and more of the north in tier 4.
I get the impression there's still a lot of support for a regional approach, or resentment for region x being "punished" for region y's high case numbers. People don't really want to look at it from a national perspective. Once you move to the local perspective, people adapt to that. Folks in the north saying we spent ages in the highest tier, got things back down, and now the southerners are screwing things up we get screwed again. Folks in the south west saying we've kept things under some control the entire time and you're killing our businesses all over again because folks on the other side of the country are out galivanting etc.
There's a lot of blame culture and regional politics that make the national lockdown seem less viable for many. And the government have lost a shitload more credibility from a low base just in the last month, so it's hard to know what kind of reaction it would be met with. I'm sure the behavioural science folks are worried at this point it might just push people in the other direction: if they're locking us down again, clearly lockdowns don't work, and why did they open things up at Christmas, what's all this bollocks about new strains, I'm not having it any more.
It's not a good excuse for delaying things, that only makes things worse, but it seems plausible to me that the situation is bad enough on multiple dimensions that when they do finally take action, it won't work this time round. It's hard to know who's the silent majority and loud minority any more. The mood definitely seems very different in here, which was already disproportionately "pro-lockdown".
France - 3K today. 364 deaths.
The ratio deaths/case is so different for each country.
Very difficult to interpret data and make international comparisons.
My Mate just text me and told me his GF tested positive and he cant understand how as she only saw her family and his family over christmas eve and christmas day - just the 12 people. FOR F**K SAKE!!!
I mean this is an intelligent man saying this to me. Now they have brought it to our village. Thanks man.
I mean this is an intelligent man saying this to me. Now they have brought it to our village. Thanks man.
If you control for the time delays (c. 2-3 weeks between deaths and cases), age profiles (people 65+ are over 100x more likely to die than 18-29 year olds) and comorbidities, the mortality rate is mostly very consistent across countries. The only thing that tends to influence things beyond that is how people report cases (e.g. Russia's recent acknowldegment of under-reporting). You shouldn't be looking at the cases and deaths ratio on the same day because people don't die the day they're diagnosed, they're both lagging indicators with significantly different lags.
Thanks. You're absolutely right. I have made a schoolboy error!
The way the Tories have handled this whole thing has been a disgrace. Should see them unelectable for the foreseeable but obviously that's impossible.
We had an advantage over other countries in that we're an island and we should have closed the borders way back at the start of March or even earlier even. No flights in or out (allowances of course for Brit nationals abroad etc). An extremely stringent lockdown put in place right from the start that was actually enforced. No rush to open pubs and hospitality. No summer jollies abroad to packed beaches in Spain et al. No 'it's christmas time so we'll ignore the virus exists for a few days, go mix and be happy' crap.
Just an absolute shambles.
We had an advantage over other countries in that we're an island and we should have closed the borders way back at the start of March or even earlier even. No flights in or out (allowances of course for Brit nationals abroad etc). An extremely stringent lockdown put in place right from the start that was actually enforced. No rush to open pubs and hospitality. No summer jollies abroad to packed beaches in Spain et al. No 'it's christmas time so we'll ignore the virus exists for a few days, go mix and be happy' crap.
Just an absolute shambles.
Apparently hundreds of today’s cases in Ireland have between 10 and 30 close contacts. All very well moaning about the government but that’s fecking ridiculous behaviour.
Chile said on Tuesday it had recorded its first case of the British variant of coronavirus, prompting health authorities to reinstate a mandatory quarantine period for all visitors entering the South American nation from abroad. The variant, which could be up to 70% more transmissible, has spread rapidly from Britain, where it was first identified, to countries across the globe, including Pakistan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada and Israel, among others.
It won't be.
Increasingly likely that schools will be closed. Or at least be postponed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-possible-new-covid-restrictions-source-says
Good point about the reduced deaths from other causes not being accounted for as well. People staying home means less accidents, less flu, etc.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-possible-new-covid-restrictions-source-says
Yeah. The trend is consistent in most countries I've bothered to check around the world. If anything, we're undercounting the number of deaths.
Good point about the reduced deaths from other causes not being accounted for as well. People staying home means less accidents, less flu, etc.
The Empire Strikes Back!!
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We should carry on doing nothing different for a few more days, just to make completely sure the hospitals wont be able to cope.
Then around NYE or start of the new year, the government can announce a bunch of new measures and act as if the surge in cases was completely unforseeable and hadn't been predicted by anyone. Just make sure it's announced too late to stop anyone partying and infecting their relatives on NYE itself.
If only it was possible to forsee in some way that a variant of the virus that has been present in London for months would somehow spread to other areas of the country, where thousands of people from London travel to and from every day.
Then around NYE or start of the new year, the government can announce a bunch of new measures and act as if the surge in cases was completely unforseeable and hadn't been predicted by anyone. Just make sure it's announced too late to stop anyone partying and infecting their relatives on NYE itself.
If only it was possible to forsee in some way that a variant of the virus that has been present in London for months would somehow spread to other areas of the country, where thousands of people from London travel to and from every day.
Crap. I thought gatherings were banned? I guess this means the tier restrictions are useless because people blatantly ignore it.
Maybe provide a tip hotline to report offenders with a 100 pound reward if true. That would solve a lot of problems with idiots.
Intelligent man with a lack of common sense or logic
Can we agree the guys below wish them love, prosperity and long life?
Anyway, let's move on.
I didn’t say they wished them love, I said they didn’t wish death on her family, which is what you claimed. This is like the third time I’ve had to explain this to you ye damn tool.
Anyway, let’s move on. Wishing you love, prosperity and a long life
He’s in ireland
I'd actually forgotten we still have NYE to come.
I'm still shocked that they found it in Sept and it was spreading for 3 months before they realised it was a problem and did something. I thought they were boasting about all their testing, and all the forensic and epidemiological work.
Ah, I see. Thanks for the clarification.
I'd actually forgotten we still have NYE to come.
Yep. Today has been a real eye opener. I live in a small village on a National trust estate and although the NT have closed the park off there are numerous footpaths in from the village. Literally hordes of people today, so many I can’t even describe it without it sounding like hyperbole. It’s snowed really heavily here and I went outside at one point and there must have been 12 - 15 people all in a huge group, completely taking the whole pavement up and you could see their breath clouds all mingling. Do these dolts not read or watch the news? >50k new infections, a number that was scoffed at when Sage predicted it in October.
Wherever I looked today, I saw people just not being careful. As usual, us residents just stayed in.
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You see, in my experience I’d say that 9/10 folk wearing masks when in the supermarket is about par for the course. I’m not going to pretend that my anecdotal evidence is worth a jot, mind. It will certainly vary from person to person. On the whole, however, I don’t conduct my day-to-day activities and feel as if people are being reckless, or behaving with a total disregard for the safety of others. As I’ve said several times now, I think people, generally, are trying their best to get through this. I agree with the tone of your post more generally, however. What I’m finding a little tedious, mind you, is this sort of thing...
I really don’t mean to get at you but what is your issue here? If it is people (en masse) not wearing masks, or refusing to display good manners in a shop, then you’re well within your rights to feel distressed. But let’s get it right: people eating takeaway food from a van is absolutely fine. People walking around a town centre is absolutely fine and well within what the public has been instructed to do (area dependent). Or is it only acceptable to do so when somebody such as yourself decides that they need to post something? I mean, now we’ve started to dissect the decision making of others re. eating food from takeaway vans, it really begs the question as to whether or not you really needed to post whatever it is that required posting. Am I being unfair? Of course I am. I’m being a bit of twat. But this is the kind of discourse that we really need to nip in the bud: there are people milling around that town centre who are going about their business no differently to you; perhaps trying to maintain some semblance of normality or routine. That shouldn’t be discouraged until the government make an executive (belated?) decision to demand that they stop doing those things.
And while I’m at it, without meaning to discredit what you’re saying, if only 6 out of 10 people were wearing masks inside of shops then I’d be very alarmed as to what they’re putting in the water wherever you happen to live. I walked around a busy city centre last night (I wanted some new work clothes for next week - was this allowed?) and there is no way that 40% of people weren’t wearing masks inside. Anecdotal again, mind you, but you see my point.
Are people really getting worked up about posters saying they hope some totally random person on a news report suffers with covid because they are ignorant about wearing a mask and taking precautions?
Who cares.
Who cares.
It's March/April all over again, but this time it feels worse
Pointing out that it’s more than a little strange is perfectly reasonable.
But really who cares? Are we getting offended on other people's behalf again. People who we don't even know and don't even know us or never will. Random people from the TV.
Then you have posters angling for mods to punish people. Feck me
Two days ago it was 30k
I saw that, it already seemed very high but closer to the high figures that I remember for France a few weeks ago.
But really who cares? Are we getting offended on other people's behalf again. People who we don't even know and don't even know us or never will. Random people from the TV.
Then you have posters angling for mods to punish people. Feck me
Some people care more than others, I guess. It doesn’t bother me; I do think it’s objectively strange, however. If you’re going to say really silly things every time you see somebody doing something that might contravene any sort of guidance then you’d be best locking yourself away and turning off the television for another year or so. It’s unhealthy.