SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Dunno about everyone else here but even though the numbers aren't as big as before, it feels like the net is closing in a little. My neighbours were very ill a few weeks ago with Covid and now 3 positive case at my work over the last 10 days. Feel a bit gloomy, feels almost inevitable at this point.
Yes it has been proven that his point was ridiculous.
Games in Russia brought delta forward by about 2 weeks. The missing tests maybe contributed 1% to that.
Obviously cases will rise with delta. And we still have night clubs open in 70% of the country. That is literally 100 times bigger reason than some missed tests (most which were conducted 3 days later).
His point was that the sequence of events described could result in football fans returning home and seeding outbreaks all over the country (in, for example, night clubs)
We could argue all day about exactly how big an impact this has had on your case load and what an alternative reality looks like where those fans didn’t seed any cases but the trajectory of cases in Finland over the last 3 weeks, if anything, substantiates his concerns.
survival of the fittest/decline of the thickest
Nope. The guy was scaremongering. It was evident then, it is evident now. And you chose to spread his scaremongering.
Warning that cases might rise steeply in Finland right before cases rise steeply in Finland = scaremongering. Gotcha.
Why can this not be a rule that you have to pay for your treatment if you refused vaccination? Or just refuse to treat patients who refused to take vaccination when they were allowed to? They are taking a known risk.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thanks. Mine was AZ and my first one was one of the India made ones. Feels like a bad flu. One of the secondary schools had an outbreak and shut which then resulted in siblings from the primary school spreading it hence me getting it.
It isn't what he said nor what he implied. Even if it was then, yes. The absolute numbers are nowhere near problematic and won't be getting anywhere near that unless specificly decided to let them get that high. Also still much lower than Ireland for example. There are many other countries to worry about. And there are many other mistakes in Finland that are more important. This was just searching for reason to be negative. In the context of pandemic and delta variant it is utterly meaningless. If you fail to understand it, then I would be surprised.
Ok. Not worth arguing about anyway. I don’t know the guy so shouldn’t care how you feel about his tweets.
Is this scaremongering?
Outdoor event without social distancing but with LFTs in advance results in 5% of attendees picking up covid.To me it’s just interesting. Could have been worse but obviously something to think about in weeks/months ahead.
There’s not a whole lot of good news to share right now because there’s not a lot of good news!
I had my second jab on Saturday and have been in bed completely drained since, was told to get a test yesterday as a few people had tested positive in the pub I watched the football in last Wednesday and mine has come back positive. Initially I thought I was in bed because of the jab but now I think it’s the actual virus which has done me in. Dread to think what I’d of been like without either of the jabs.
Sorry to hear it. The second jab didn't have time to work, unfortunately.
Some graphs on the difference between this wave of cases in the UK (so far) and the last one:
The modelling of what happens next is basically all about whether cases will move up the age groups before other factors (vaccines, prior infections and behaviour changes) pull them back down again.
The modelling of what happens next is basically all about whether cases will move up the age groups before other factors (vaccines, prior infections and behaviour changes) pull them back down again.
Cheers mate.
Exactly what I'm thinking, if this how you feel with the jabs (and I feel like shit) then God knows how you feel without them.
That’s bad luck but at least 2 weeks from your jab before you get maximum level of the vaccine. I heard many people say that’s when they caught it, in between both jabs. Lesson there
Anyway get well soon
On Delta and its transmission ability compared to the original Wuhan strain:
We know from previous studies that people are at their most infectious on/around the day they get symptoms. With Delta it looks like they're actually more infectious due to the higher vital load.
Combine that with a faster infection to infectious timeline (down from around 6 days to 4 or less) and it's easy to see how Delta got a transmission advantage.
What it means in terms of spread is the thing the epidemiologists are now musing over. More super-spreaders and super-spreader events? Which might explain the speed of the jump in cases in Scotland, and maybe even the fact they soon started to fall again. Probably the end of test and trace (using human tracers to do phone contacts) as well (assuming it still exists at all).
We know from previous studies that people are at their most infectious on/around the day they get symptoms. With Delta it looks like they're actually more infectious due to the higher vital load.
Combine that with a faster infection to infectious timeline (down from around 6 days to 4 or less) and it's easy to see how Delta got a transmission advantage.
What it means in terms of spread is the thing the epidemiologists are now musing over. More super-spreaders and super-spreader events? Which might explain the speed of the jump in cases in Scotland, and maybe even the fact they soon started to fall again. Probably the end of test and trace (using human tracers to do phone contacts) as well (assuming it still exists at all).
I wonder if the shorter timeline might paradoxically be a good thing? More explosive increase in cases but shorter overall duration of each surge. Arguably the worst thing about this virus is the very lengthy disease course, which means we get horribly lengthy incidence spikes. If it operated on the same timeline as, say, influenza the whole pandemic would probably be done and dusted by now.
What am I missing? Now you want quick herd-immunity? I don’t see any benefit in that.
With shorter infectious time and more infectious, I guess you could quarantine people with less exposure but for shorter time.
@jojojo Why wouldn't test & trace exist? It is instrumental in Finland, the app has been useless, and we had one of the highest amounts of downloads.
The epedemiology debate is above my paygrade I'm afraid. I've read people suggest that it means event - symptoms is shorter, and therefore assuming we recognise the symptoms we don't walk around with it for as long in the asymptomatic/early symptom phase. So on average we meet fewer different people while infectious.
Across the country it might help describe the way it seems to surge in one local area, and then falls back or flattens again soon after.
The benefit of a shorter disease/infectiousness duration surely doesn’t need to be explained?
Of course, I’m assuming that a quicker onset of symptoms also means a shorter overall illness. Which might not be the case.
Test and trace relies on a timeline between positive test and contacts informed.
If you go with a picture of day one - symptoms, day two - test, day three - result, day 4 - trace start phoning the contacts. Those contacts will already be in their most infectious phase and some will have symptoms themselves. Realistically, it's about which people does the person who tested positive warn themself.
In honesty that formal timeline is itself optimistic in terms of what typically happens. If you look at UK testing data, fewer people get tested at weekends, and on holidays - because most people don't react the instant they get symptoms, and presumably decide that they'll get a test if they still feel bad on Monday
If you go into the idea of asking the people who are contacts of the contacts of the person who tested positive (which you need to if infected to infectious is 4 days) then with UK case rates you'd be quarantining hundreds of thousands of people per day. It's just not going to happen here.
Ok. I did misunderstand.
But given it has been a lot harder to contain in places like Vietnam, Thailand or Sydney, I don't think it matters if some aspects of it is better. When there is clear evidence that on the whole it is much harder to contain.
@jojojo Yes, that has been one of the main reason to keep infections relatively low during the whole ordeal. So that t&t can work. But probably will be different tactics in the future.
Yes. I agree with this.
I just remember hearing someone say very early on that the very slow/lengthy duration of illness is one of the reasons it will last much longer than previous flu pandemics.
You’re probably right though. It’s just semantics. Ironically you’ve shut down one of my rare moments of positivity!
I still think the biggest problem with indoor dining right now is that unvaccinated young people will be serving vaccinated older people, I just don't think it's remotely acceptable. The government keep citing that they've made J&J available to 18+ in pharmacies but that's still not nearly enough. They simply need to make more of an effort to get these workers vaccinated, fast. I think once we have a scenario where these workers are vaccinated and can actually walk into their own pubs/restaurants and sit down too as opposed to just serving vaccinated people, the indoor dining issue becomes a lot less difficult to agree with.
At the end of the day, vaccinated people can still spread Covid to unvaccinated people, it could turn into a total shambles.
True. It’s a good point that I’ve also seen elsewhere. The indoor dining might comeback to bite.
Is this different for outdoor dining?
Yeah outdoor dining is already open and available to all. Unfortunately Ireland isn't very well equipped for it due to our unpredictable weather so it hasn't been a feasible option for a lot of establishments.
But isn't it the same problem of unvaccinated people serving vaccinated?
It is, but imagine a cool wind blowing around outside as per usual in Ireland, versus a pokey little restaurant with bad ventilation
No, because unvaccinated can also get served in that scenario, anyone can. Also Covid has also been proven to be far less transmissible outdoors.
Covid hospitalisations in AU resulting from a Delta outbreak suggest that it affects young people more severely than before but the data isn't sufficient to be certain. Schools seem to be affected far more but again with the same small data set proviso.