Come on Leipzig, need a win and lots of goals here please
German Football 21/22 | Gladbach sign Farke
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
That goal felt it was played out in slow motion.
Looks like it was offside though.
What a weird situation. I feel like it was 50/50 whether that could have been ruled deliberate play.
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What is this defending?
Not the first time this happened either. Leipzig are taking the biggest risks possible with their defensive pressing, but their timing is so off it's comical.
Looks like it was offside though.
What a weird situation. I feel like it was 50/50 whether that could have been ruled deliberate play.
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What is this defending?
Not the first time this happened either. Leipzig are taking the biggest risks possible with their defensive pressing, but their timing is so off it's comical.
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Marsch simply is a bad manager. He knows how to get his team scoring, but his approach results in far too many risky situations like this. Still expect him to be sacked soon.
On the other hand Florian Wirtz is just outstanding for his age
Marsch simply is a bad manager. He knows how to get his team scoring, but his approach results in far too many risky situations like this. Still expect him to be sacked soon.
On the other hand Florian Wirtz is just outstanding for his age
Currently at 70 minutes per scorer in all competitions. Incredible really. With Havertz, Wirtz and Musiala the future of German attack seems to be bright
Tah's mentoring of Tapsoba finally paying off.
The battle for the international competition is absolutely insane at the moment. Bayern and Dortmund a bit running away up front and Leverkusen clearly leading the pack, but the teams placed 4 to 12 are just 4 points apart (18 to 22 points each), and none of them would really surprise me if they qualify at least for the EL. Can't remember the last time I thought so many teams could do it?
It's close for the wrong reasons. It's because everyone except for Bayern and Dortmund are having weak seasons. Freiburg are doing great work in relative terms, but as far as their absolute performances go they aren't fourth place, because they are playing on top four level, they are fourth, because Leipzig, Gladbach, Wolfsburg and Frankfurt are still reeling from the big coach shuffle or the pandemic. And they are guaranteed to drop off as the season progresses. As far as top four is concerned all it really means to me is that Leipzig are still most likely going to make it. When in other seasons they would be in hot water now.
When it comes to EL/ECL spots the race is much more open, but to me it doesn't really have the same excitement as the top four battle. For the big clubs it doesn't really mean a lot financially and they aren't going to get very far in it either. For smaller clubs it means something, but when they actually get to play it they don't have the squad depth or experience to compete on two fronts. The only exception might be Frankfurt, because they can actually accomplish something, when they get their momentum going. A club like Freiburg might actually be better served if they finish just shy of Europe.
Dardai sacked, Korkut takes over to finish the season.
Hertha's transition to finally being a top club almost complete. They just have to get past Bielefeld, Fürth seems out of reach.
WTF? Why would anyone give Korkut another job in the league? That guy is as clueless as it gets.
Really feel that Bobic lost his mind once he took over Hertha...
That goal felt it was played out in slow motion.
Looks like it was offside though.
What a weird situation. I feel like it was 50/50 whether that could have been ruled deliberate play.
edit:
What is this defending?
Not the first time this happened either. Leipzig are taking the biggest risks possible with their defensive pressing, but their timing is so off it's comical.
While criticism of Marsch is likely fair, why are the two defenders, presuming the RB and RCB in this still capture, both pressing towards to the player with the ball and not one of them is tracking the attacker down the left? That's surely not on the manager's tactics.
That goal felt it was played out in slow motion.
Looks like it was offside though.
What a weird situation. I feel like it was 50/50 whether that could have been ruled deliberate play.
edit:
What is this defending?
Not the first time this happened either. Leipzig are taking the biggest risks possible with their defensive pressing, but their timing is so off it's comical.
Their defending was horrible the whole match. Leverkusen can actually be accused of not being clinical in front of goal given the 4 v 3 situations they had.
That being said, Leverkusen are also an amazing offensive team. Easily the second best in the league after Munich, even when Dortmund have Haaland. Their movement up front with Wirtz, Diaby and Adli/Amiri, followed Schik as striker. A solid midfield base of Palacios, Aranguiz, Demierby and Andrich (if only we didn't have no meant good midfielders he would be a good addition to the national team, as a physical DM).
That one Bayern result, where they had a lot of injuries but did feck up the formation, they've been really impressive in the league and in Europe.
Well first of all you have to ask yourself why Leverkusen are in a 4vs4 situation, where Schick even has a little bit of space with the ball, in a way that's already a failure of the defense and if Leverkusen play it out clinically, then it's hard to stop them from creating a good chance. I guess it's a natural instinct to try and snuff out the counter attack by closing down Schick and his passing angles (especially in a Leipzig team), but they are a step or two too late to actually fully accomplish that, however they are still quick enough to play Diably (LW) offside (though I wouldn't vouch for the idea that they are actually aware of that fact). But then you look at the other two defenders: I'm sure it's just because I took the screenshot in an unfavourable moment, but Gvardiol (LCB) looks like he's thinking ("yep, onside, nailed it!"), while bending backwards to extend the onside portion of the field and Angelino (LB) looks even a bit more out of it.
You have the right half trying to solve the situation via pressing and the left half taking a more passive stance. Either one could work if all four followed the same idea, but this uncoordinated 50/50 approach is a gift to the opposition.
Leverkusen are one-dimensional, they know very well how to quickly counter attack (not necessarily how to finish them clinically), but when they have to break down their opposition they aren't really anything special.
What you call easily the second best offensive team in the league understat calls 9th in the league in terms of xG, about 8 expected goals behind a Haaland-deprived Dortmund in crisis mode.
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Wonder if they believe that themselves
Not fully convinced of that. Matches like this one against Leipzig are perfect for us but we've also looked like pace merchants a bunch of times when playing against a low block. Many players (Demirbay, Adli, Diaby, Bellarabi) love to run head first into the wall hoping they break it. Quite often we rely on luck to score the first goal when the opposition is okay with a draw. And that's going to backfire now and then.
We don't have many clinical and subtle attacking players. Wirtz obviously, to an extent Schick and after that we are already looking at Paulinho who right now is great on the ball but severely lacks effectiveness.
This situation also reflects in xG stats by the way. We're 11th in terms of xPTs and 9th in terms of xG. Teams that outperform their xG have a tendency to be really inconsistent.
xG is the most useless tool on planet earth. Mind-boggling to me how people still take it seriously.
It is an absolutely valid statistical breakdown of chance quality. Why wouldn't you take it seriously?
It's a great statistic and it is used by the top professionals in football. What's good enough for Tuchel and Klopp is good enough for me as well
xG often isn't very kind to Leverkusen.
Speaking of stats, does anyone still remember "Packing", the brainchild of Stefan Reinartz? For a couple of months in 2016 the german media made it sound like the end all, be all stat, and then it just disappeared from the public eye. Is Packing still a stat that's used?
Not surprising, considering they are a mediocre team, carried by Wirtz and Schick.
Last information I could find was what they state here: https://www.impect.com/en/about-us
As of 2019,19 clubs from 5 leagues are using data from Impect. Doesn't sound like an overwhelmingly successful concept.
They cite PSG and Salzburg (I assume they know their analytics) as partners. Sounds like they are being taken seriously by the business.
Korkut is a pretty embarassing choice. I mean he did have a pretty strong half-season with Stuttgart at his last job so maybe it'll be enough to avoid relegation.
Of course that's gonna lead to the same problem as last season..if they do okay, do you get a new coach for 22/23 or do you trust Korkut enough to continue with him?
Sounds like they have someone in mind for next season but that person wasn't available short-term.
Of course that's gonna lead to the same problem as last season..if they do okay, do you get a new coach for 22/23 or do you trust Korkut enough to continue with him?
Sounds like they have someone in mind for next season but that person wasn't available short-term.
At first glance it sounds absolutely insane, since I would say that Dardai isn't good enough to build something, but on the other hand he's also precisely the kind of coach you want to have to toughen up for a relegation battle. But who knows, there as been a constant back and forth between Bobic and Dardai in the media, maybe it just wasn't possible to continue like that anymore. Still, there have to be better choices than Korkut out there.
The timing is definitely odd...the last few weeks were mostly solid and Hertha were just unlucky to concede last-minute equalizers against Leverkusen and Augsburg. My guess is that Korkut is a very cheap option. I know the pubic perception is still that Hertha is a rich club but the last transfer window has shown that the money just isn't there anymore.
Being cheap is not really an argument for a particular coach though, is it? Especially since Hertha are already so close to the edge. If Korkut flops they will go deep into a downward spiral and what's then? Hire Frontzeck, because he gets you relegated for free?
Bobic's radical last minute clear out during the summer window already seemed very risk friendly and this might even be more so. Is he gambling with the club as collateral? If it works he gets credit for a radical reboot, if it doesn't he can probably still get a job at one of the struggling big clubs?!
I'd say an underperforming team. We have many very talented players even without Wirtz and Schick.
Let's settle on mediocre performances due to only two players consistently performing on their highest level, think we fully agree on that.
Consistency, reliability, resilience to pressure and decision making are also part of what makes up the "quality" of a player. If we say that Leverkusen are underperforming, we're kind of pretending that they are not, since issues with these qualities keep showing up again and again like clock work.
Which players do you mean in particular? Because I think the only ones this really applies to are Tah, Hradecky and Diaby in the current team. The rest doesn't have such ups and downs.
I obviously don't watch every match, so take this with a grain of salt, but off the top of my head:
Alario and Amiri appear to be very streaky.
Bakker looks like he's going to be a worthy heir to Wendel.
Demirbay seems to be inconsistent.
I think the young defenders are general is always good for some blunder, e.g. Kossounou giving away a penalty against Dortmund, Tapsoba giving one away against Leipzig. I don't trust any of them under pressure.
I think the point where the whole xGoals-Cult lost me was when Diaby was running into an empty goal against Augsburg last season because their keeper was running forward for a corner. xGoal for that chance: 0,6.
Regarding Leverkusen, the problem is that xGoals only portrays the shots, but ignores all the other chances that don´t result in a shot. Against Köln and yesterday vs. Leipzig we had countless 3-on-2 or 4-on-3 situations in which we just don´t get the final ball right. Chances can´t be reduced just to actual shots. Every cross that a striker misses by an inch, every misplaced square pass inside the box, every technical mistake from the offensive player that prevents him getting a shot away, all of that is ignored. When I watched our game yesterday, Seoane had an excellent game plan that worked out completely. We broke Leipzigs press all game and were able to run at them. We looked threatening in every attack while Leipzig did little to nothing in possession. xGoals doesn´t reflect that because it ignores the attacks that don´t lead to shots but SHOULD lead to shots.
Apart from that, the providers of xGoals differ immensely in their assessment of games which doesn´t add to the statistics credibility.
I see. Context matters, and it is important to know what kind of model is used. And i agree some cultists just take it to literally.
There are xG stats that go beyond simple shot tracking: e.g. https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/analysis/identifying-pass-masters - an approach like this could be used to rate attacks that don't lead to shots. But for conventional purposes I don't think it matters too much, because everyone has the occasional botched counter attack and the higher the sample size the less they matter. However if a team has persistent problems executing their attacks, then why would it be misleading if they get a lower xG score for it, when we're trying to assess their chance creation?
And of course different providers have different algorithms and if you want to go in depth analysis it's relevant to understand where the differences and weaknesses of the models lie (e.g. https://thefutebolist.wordpress.com...rperform-expected-goals-part-one-the-defence/), it often seems to me that the model that Bundesliga broadcasts uses doesn't accurately reflect if a keeper is badly positioned. But bottom line both understat's and infogol's models have Leverkusen at 11th in terms of xPts. Understat at an even-ish xGD of 18.8 - 19 and Infogol at 17.1 - 20. The exact numbers are different, but the conclusion they give you is similar.
Hertha saying goodbye to the curry sausage and welcoming Thai food to the family.
And you got our manager sacked. Zimmermann is gone, my club further descends into chaos...Wrote that before kickoff
It's sad, I thought it was a charming idea to promote a coach from a local lower league team, I really believed that it could have worked.
I haven't followed Hannover all that close this season, but fair to say the results were nowhere near good enough
I completely missed his back story, was there any particular reason - other than being local - that they appointed him? From what his stats tell me he's been a midtable coach in one of the weaker(?) 4th divisions until he got his team promoted by having a good start in a season that got cancelled after 9 games and the two teams who did better refusing/not being allowed promotion?! Sounds like quite the leap to a 2nd division clubs that probably hopes to get promoted in the mid term.
You're generally right about most of the players you mentioned but those in question aren't starters anymore, if you ask me. Alario plays second fiddle to Schick at best, Amiri seems to be behind Wirtz, Diaby, Adli, Paulinho and Bellarabi in die hierarchy, Kossounou is clearly third choice behind Tah (who so far was pretty consistent this season) and Tapsoba (who IMO was our most consistent player over the last years). Demirbay is in fact really inconsistent and played many games for us this season. But personally I hope to see him on the bench now that Aranguiz and Palacios are back. And the chances for that don't seem to be that small given that Andrich and Palacios started against Leipzig and Aranguiz was subbed in before Demirbay, despite not playing in the EL. And I don't think Bakker is a worthy heir to Wendell. Wendell was atrocious in the end, both in attack as well as in defense. Bakker is at times a bit over motivated in his tacklings but in general, he's had a really good start.
I think much of the "perceived" inconsistency of our players has to do with our reliance on individual quality in the attack. If you don't score, the occasional blunder in the defense that every player has once in a while hurts you much more. So far we lack clear attacking patterns when we aren't offered space in behind if you ask me and that leads to us relying on luck to score the first goal - and reliance on luck is bad for your consistency. I hope that Seoane is able to tackle that. In general, one would assume that he has to have a concept for playing against low blocks given his record in the Swiss league. I'm also curious as to how his xG stats looked in the Swiss league because in general, I think you made the right points in your discussion with @ForEverEleven but he also makes some valid points about the short comings of the concept and we've seen different coaches (e. g. Favre and Klopp) outperform their expected goals constantly due to their approaches to defending/attacking.
Hannover and Havelse have quite good relations. I wouldn't go so far as calling Havelse our feeder club, more like a bit of cooperation going on, under certain circumstances the clubs even used each others facilities, so I guess you can say Zimmermann was well known beyond looking just at the results and it was definitely that the board saw the potential in him to be able to make the step up.
I don't even think that the team played exceptionally bad under him, the decision to sell our best striker to Bremen on deadline day was absolutely stupid and crippled our effectiveness, so our DoF also is at least as much responsible for this mess.
Also it was made absolutely clear that this season is about surviving and rebuilding, bit of a focus on the youngsters. Zimmermann has a track record of doing that in Havelse, I think that was a key point too.
But are Adli, Paulinho and Bellarabi consistent, reliable performers? The fact that the experienced players may fall behind them isn't necessarily a positive. Demirbay has started the first 12 games, the fact that he only played 10 minutes in the last game could mean something, or it could mean nothing.
And while he looks to be good in attack, Bakker is actually the player I was most confident about, because he already has quite an impressive resume, from giving away a penalty and breaking Lainer's ankle, to the vintage Wendell display against Augsburg, to allowing Meunier to look like a force against Dortmund, to giving away a free kick at the edge of the box (that lead to a goal) and collecting an early yellow card with a stupid kick against his opponent.
Regarding your second paragraph: It's not like you can crack a defense just with tactics, the more defensively your opponent's setup and the better they are organized the more individual quality or luck you need. It's possible that Seoane can do more, but the fact that Leverkusen's players in some matches also seemed to struggle to play out clear counter attacks (and not at all for a lack of pace) and that CM is a bit of an issue (Demirbay inconsistent, Andrich limited) suggests that there is an issue with individual quality.
On the other hand mistakes that cost points are remembered more clearly and if your games stay close-ish in score, then each mistake weighs worse. So there is probably some truth to that the image of defenders is suffering from the consistency of the attack.
Regarding xG: according to understat Leverkusen are overperforming their's by nine goals, three of which were own goals and thus definitely just dumb luck. If you want to find out whether the models are undervaluing them it might be worth taking a look at the big overperformers, who are Schick, Diaby and Wirtz:
If I remember correctly Diaby often got to the end of counter attacks and in general I often feel like xG models are undervaluing the clearest of chances (that are often a result of counters) a bit, so maybe that's where a part of his personal overperformance comes from.
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