Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Foxbatt said:
The Americans don't want it either. It will destroy the USD as China now has their own system. The Russians will simply switch to to that.
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What's stopping the Russian's just switching to it anyway? It's being made to seem like removing Russia from SWIFT would have a worse impact on the West than Russia.

FYI I have feck all clue about SWIFT or what the feck it does (international banking system?).
 
Paxi said:
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lets be honest even if turkey says no Russia is just going to sail straight through there anyway... and if turkey was to send some planes to sink them it looks pretty unlikely they would get any military back up from other nato members who all seem hell bent on ensuring they dont get dragged into the fighting
 
Sky1981 said:
I'm not condoning the invasion. 100% against it.

Stop putting words into people's mouth. I have never been happy about lives lost. Even iraqi, even north korean, yemen, Syrian, i dont cheer over lives lost
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Nobody put the word "commendable" in your mouth. You put it there yourself. You hated to say it, didn't have to say it, but said it anyway and to no purpose at all. People have family in Kyiv, my brother might well die there. Choose your words more carefully or don't speak at all.
 
The Firestarter said:
If anything , this has so far demonstrated how inept the RA would be in a conventional conflict with NATO.
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This is all par for the course though. They've never conducted a multi theater offensive with combined forces in 50 years or more. Compare and contrast to how the Americans took Iraq or Afghanistan and it's light and day. This is a large part of why some analysts like me were so convinced (and yet wrong) that he wouldn't go for such a strategy against such a determined opponent.

They're also likely already low on precision munitions etc or at least rationing them.

NATO would absolutely obliterate Russia in a conventional war, Iskander is just food for THAAD, F35's are better than anything Russians have (ie. they wouldn't even get into dogfights), and the US navy is awesome. This is before you even get into satellite/cyber capability etc.
 
sun_tzu said:
lets be honest even if turkey says no Russia is just going to sail straight through there anyway... and if turkey was to send some planes to sink them it looks pretty unlikely they would get any military back up from other nato members who all seem hell bent on ensuring they dont get dragged into the fighting
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Would agree being as they already downed a Turkish ship yesterday
 
I have read here that Russia would only take the western part of the country, do you think that is feasible or that, on the contrary, the Ukrainian army will continue fighting after the fall of Kiev?
I also read, although I can't find the tweet that Ukraine is ready to negotiate its neutrality.
My wife, Polish, years ago she was sure all this would happen. She doesn't understand (or doesn't want to understand) the concept of NATO and the lack of military support from Europe. Whatever happens, Poland's border with Ukraine/Belarus is going to be in chaos in the coming years, with constant provocations
 
What is the latest military situation? What about the Ukrainian.Air Force? Surely they would have Mig 29s and Sukhoi 27?
 
Sarni said:
Yeah people are terrified. My wife is scared of Russian invasion here and I've been trying to explain to her how this probably can't happen, and definitely won't happen overnight. I guess I do understand some of that fear in times like this, with battles literally 400 km from where I live.
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It's the same with my wife, ever since the stories started about the possibility of it happening, she's just been constantly worried that Russia will attack Poland, despite me telling her why.
 
red4ever 79 said:
why the feck are sky news allowing this prick from moscow

how the feck are sky news broadcasting this propaganda. what the feck is this.
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Its alarming, it really is.

I am glad they showed it to be honest, as it highlights how far they have fallen into the abyss of evil and complete dangerous scattered paranoid thinking.
 
Mihai said:
I think the majority on here have been level headed with a couple of exceptions (as usual). Where are you from?
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I am just enraged to see these few act as if they're some free-thinkers who see things that others won't :lol:

I'm from Estonia.
 
Sky1981 said:
Criticising NATO doesnt mean I'm pro Russia. Just like calling their invasion effective and impressive doesnt mean I'm pro Russia.

Maybe stop butting it without context?
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I think the NATO stuff is really overstated - it probably should have been disbanded and reformed after the collapse of communism but it's pretty obvious from Putin's rhetoric that it's no more than a bullshit excuse for all this.

The greater problem was the economic policy towards Russia in general after the Soviet Union which set the stage for a strongman like Putin to rise to power.

There are already NATO bases bordering Russia and Ukraine weren't joining any time soon - The whole pretext is nonsense. If anything I think they should be criticised for neither doing one thing or the other - There was a lot of rhetoric about helping Ukraine westernize and move away from Russia but they never fully committed to their safety in doing so. Zelenskyy is highlighting how they've been left to fight this alone and he isn't wrong.
 
Siorac said:
There would be slightly stronger sanctions but that's about it, in all likelihood.
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If Putin attacks a NATO member hell will break loose.

It's literally part of the NATO treaty: "if you attack one of us, you attack all of us".

If Putin attacks Estonia or Poland the whole NATO will join the fight and WW3 will start.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
So if the UK decided to take back Ireland you wouldn't be in support of an armed resistance?

edit: saw your other response, please disregard.
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It depends what the intentions of the UK was. I firmly believe that only in cases like the Holocaust should everyday people have to give their lives for the pursuits of some psychopathic regime leader. If the UK weren't planning on some form of mass slaughter or crippling subjugation then no, I wouldn't. I'm sure I'm in a minority of Irish who would have this opinion, but I just don't agree with giving lives for some sort of nationalist belief, I'd rather rely on the progress of time to allow people to regain a 'normal' life. Easy to say from the sidelines, but that's my stance anyway.
 
People painting Putin as some unhinged mad man is not helping IMO. He is far more intelligent than is being made out. This has been planned since Crimea. He has built closer military relations with China, made 2 of the big European countries utterly reliant on him for energy along with countless other smaller ones.

Russia is practically debt free compared to the rest of Europe and the UK. His banks prop up the rest of us. By doing this he has split the EU already, and I can only see it getting worse. Putin knows exactly what he is doing.
 
Conor said:
It depends what the intentions of the UK was. I firmly believe that only in cases like the Holocaust should everyday people have to give their lives for the pursuits of some psychopathic regime leader. If the UK weren't planning on some form of mass slaughter or crippling subjugation then no, I wouldn't. I'm sure I'm in a minority of Irish who would have this opinion, but I just don't agree with giving lives for some sort of nationalist belief, I'd rather rely on the progress of time to allow people to regain a 'normal' life. Easy to say from the sidelines, but that's my stance anyway.
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Fair enough.
 
carvajal said:
I have read here that Russia would only take the western part of the country, do you think that is feasible or that, on the contrary, the Ukrainian army will continue fighting after the fall of Kiev?
I also read, although I can't find the tweet that Ukraine is ready to negotiate its neutrality.
My wife, Polish, years ago she was sure all this would happen. She doesn't understand (or doesn't want to understand) the concept of NATO and the lack of military support from Europe. Whatever happens, Poland's border with Ukraine/Belarus is going to be in chaos in the coming years, with constant provocations
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The Ukrainians would never give up. There maybe a cease fire of some sort but politically the would never accept it and nor should they even think about it.
 
Foxbatt said:
What is the latest military situation? What about the Ukrainian.Air Force? Surely they would have Mig 29s and Sukhoi 27?
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Hard to find info on the current air defense situation, some reports claim that UKR air defense is totally knocked out but the government claims they still have capability in that regard. Would be nice if US sent stingers along with the javelins that have been doing great work so far.
 
Schmiznurf said:
It's the same with my wife, ever since the stories started about the possibility of it happening, she's just been constantly worried that Russia will attack Poland, despite me telling her why.
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there’s nothing russia could do to poland that wouldn’t be fiercely repelled by the most vociferous thoughts and prayers the western world and their leaders would send you. maybe poland will be deemed important enough to fight over, maybe it won’t. i think the rest of the world’s superpowers have made it clear that they’re only prepared to protect their own interests.
 
Spark said:
What's stopping the Russian's just switching to it anyway? It's being made to seem like removing Russia from SWIFT would have a worse impact on the West than Russia.

FYI I have feck all clue about SWIFT or what the feck it does (international banking system?).
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It could make it very difficult for European banks to recoup large loans that have been made to russian companies... and depending how that debt is packaged and repackaged (think lehman bros) the unwinding of that as well as the impact on banks balance sheets / solvency ratios could be impactful - but given how intertwined things are nobody would really know - no doubt governments could step in to underwrite if needed - but again not without impact in markets.

Cyprus, Italy and Germany are thought to be three of the countries against the SWIFT ban - presumably because of the potential (probable) knock on impact to their own banking and finance interests being more impactful than those in favour (USA, UK, baltic nations etc)
 
BayernFan87 said:
If Putin attacks a NATO member hell will break loose.

It's literally part of the NATO treaty: "if you attack one of us, you attack all of us".

If Putin attacks Estonia or Poland the whole NATO will join the fight and WW3 will start.
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Yeah, I'm not remotely convinced of that.
 
Ukrainians starting to rally around Zelensky. "He's made many mistakes but he's showing he is worthy to lead us now"
 
Foxbatt said:
What is the latest military situation? What about the Ukrainian.Air Force? Surely they would have Mig 29s and Sukhoi 27?
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The UAF is tiny. It scored some small victories yesterday, but doesn’t have the numbers to sustain losses. Half of the UAF was destroyed during the Donbas fighting from 2014-Now.
 
BayernFan87 said:
If Putin attacks a NATO member hell will break loose.

It's literally part of the NATO treaty: "if you attack one of us, you attack all of us".

If Putin attacks Estonia or Poland the whole NATO will join the fight and WW3 will start.
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Biden was very clear on this in his speech yesterday as well.

Although we provided over $650 million in defensive assistance to Ukraine just this year — this last year, let me say it again: Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO Allies and reassure those Allies in the east.

As I made crystal clear, the United States will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of American power. And the good news is: NATO is more united and more determined than ever.

There is no doubt — no doubt that the United States and every NATO Ally will meet our Article 5 commitments, which says that an attack on one is an attack on all.
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It will be the Central Asia for Putain next. Probably my homeland. Ukraine and Belarus are done, Armenia too. Georgia is of not much importance, while Moldova is in his pocket. Kazakhstan has been in ODKB for years. From now on, the only way to stop Putler's further aggression is to impose REAL economic sanctions, to basically deprive him of any extra resources to conduct further military actions. And yes, the eastern flank of NATO needs to be strengthened properly.
 
sport2793 said:
Hard to find info on the current air defense situation, some reports claim that UKR air defense is totally knocked out but the government claims they still have capability in that regard. Would be nice if US sent stingers along with the javelins that have been doing great work so far.
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Probably depends on city, but you'd assume NASAMS and MANPADS still in play. (hard for them not to be) More static units, not so likely. That said, it's pretty much confirmed now that a Ukrainian battery shot down a plane in Kyiv last night.
 
Inaction from the west will be our downfall. I understand we're not bound by treaty in Ukraine, I understand it's easy for me to say from behind the comfort of my computer, and I understand we're very wary about getting into wars that aren't on our own soil after...well everything in recent history.

But Putin will use that against us. The fact we've had intelligence on all of this happening for months (correct me if I'm wrong) and haven't prevented it...ugh.
 
Random Task said:
Yeah, I'm not remotely convinced of that.
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If NATO didn't come to a members defence in that situation, the game would be up. Clear signal to Russia and China that they can act with impunity. I don't think if the US wants to hold China off for as long as possible that doing nothing would be in their interest either. China would be watching with great interest.
 
BayernFan87 said:
If Putin attacks a NATO member hell will break loose.

It's literally part of the NATO treaty: "if you attack one of us, you attack all of us".

If Putin attacks Estonia or Poland the whole NATO will join the fight and WW3 will start.
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And maybe that's why NATO refused to integrate Ukraina and Georgia, countries that are really under threat from Putin.
 
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