So what's the state of play currently? Are things quiet after last night?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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This assumes that he is a lunatic, and that people under him are lunatics too.
Of course that it can happen, but the only likely scenario I see it happening is if there is an invasion of Russia.
Vastly superior tech + more people. Putins main threat is nuclear weapons and the idea that he is willing to ruin the world completely.
maybe he would’ve, completely different times though
Pretty sure Putin doesn’t go to bed with the red button/codes and there will be a chain of command and protocols to be followed for a nuclear missile to be fired. Now these generals etc have families and friends who they would be killing within the next hour along with themselves.
It ain’t happening.
On the other hand, killing him would make him the ultimate martyr.
Give it Boris till the end of the season
Bad move! Knowing Boris he will turn it into a comedy and then win the CL by a landslide ;-)
I'm wondering how the US can get into Kyiv and airlift him out without anybody noticing. Some crazy stealth tech
Based on what we have seen I think you have to question his sanity / logic.... And he's handpicked those around him based largely on their willingness to do what they are told... So yeah let's hope we don't find out
Without risking US troops, which would be very dangerous in regards to escalation
I'm guessing that if zelensky is willing, an extraction point could be agreed somewhere nearby. Heavy protection. Grab and out pronto.
It's not like he's pinned down and surrounded.
I don't think it's risky at all. All they need to do is inform The Russians it's an American aircraft coming into evacuate and the Russians dare not shoot it down.
Russian general be like : We have a lot of old tanks, total garbage, recycling them would be very expensive.
Putin : I have a cheaper option, lets just invade Ukraine and leave them there
The way his international stature is growing by the hour, it may be too late to take him out without turning him into a legend. An arrest and show trial may be better for Moscow.
Yeah, also they probably don't want to commit all their best equipment on the off chance Nato does respond.
The US have sigint planes up around Ukraine 24/7 watching the Ukrainian air space and the Russian troop movements. They could probaly just have him drive out of the country in a car himself telling him what roads to take to avoid any Russian troops.
Good post. Although at this point, Putin appears to have clumsily overcommitted and won’t want to appear as if he’s backing down against what he considers an inferior opponent, on land he believes is his. He is all in and can’t go back at this point.
Time is not on his side. With SWIFT likely to be cut off within days pressure within Russia will be increasing. Surely at some point even his allies will realize it’s a fight not worth fighting.
Sounds like a bulletproof recipe for absolute disaster
He's in the process of backing himself into an unwinnable position. If the swift sanctions start, he's cooked.
I don't think it would be very wise for them to attack a US aircraft unprovoked.
Its not even "Airforce 1" if the President is not on the plane.
Nah they touch them and NATO forces are there within days to obliterate their amazing tanks and planes.
Anyone with a knowledge of Russian politics know of any actors who could be keen undermine Putin in this/have ambitions to succeed him?
Apparently they already hit a Turkish ship. Even if accidential, shit happens. Maybe I'm being paranoid, but it seems like a lot could go wrong there
I'm surprised how worked up people are getting over nukes. Maybe I'm being naive but they've always just come across as a 'who's got the biggest dick' competition to me.
I just can't picture them ever being used. In my very simple mindset if you nuke one country you're going to get nuked back. Nobody is going to do it. Nobody wants to see the world as we know it destroyed. And if Putin was some deranged lunatic who wanted to blow up the world I'm sure it's not just a case of he presses a button. There will other people involved who don't want to end the world.
I just can't picture them ever being used. In my very simple mindset if you nuke one country you're going to get nuked back. Nobody is going to do it. Nobody wants to see the world as we know it destroyed. And if Putin was some deranged lunatic who wanted to blow up the world I'm sure it's not just a case of he presses a button. There will other people involved who don't want to end the world.
This probably sounds weird but I would've thought a missile would do more damage to a building than that.
Well, I'd rather not NATO test Putin or vice versa. It's a real threat.
Wishful and amateur thinking here, but if anything we've seen so far is that Putin showed weaknesess in his army, and that USA/NATO have probably never been less afraid of him, ignoring his lunacy and attacking Ukraine of course, which itself is scary and terrible thing. Plus there's Turkey and China watching it from the stands, Russia definitely would have the most to lose if they step their foot on some NATO country after this.
I am always trying to find some positive, so maybe I am bit subjective, but it surely looks like that for me.
I am always trying to find some positive, so maybe I am bit subjective, but it surely looks like that for me.
Not suggesting it would happen but you’d think if we’re thinking this then they’ve considered it. Perhaps a protocol to get those who make the decision and press the buttons families out to some extremely remote location in Russia. If they’re the aggressor then there would be time for that. Even still, you’d hope they see what a terrible decision it would be.
This does not appear to be going to plan for Russia. Big losses and taken by surprise at the level of Ukrainian resistance. The longer this drags out, and it will, mixed with the world isolation and sanctions, immense pressure will mount within Russia and on Putin. This simply won’t be sustainable and cracks will appear.
Given how this is going there’s absolutely no chance Russia will take and successfully hold Ukraine. Holding it being the key. There’s also unrest within Russia and no appetite for war amongst the people. This needed to be a swift operation for Putin and it looks very much like his military is being bogged down and suffering heavy losses which will cripple morale and further weaken his hand.
Finally the mighty Russian military is starting to look not all that mighty. Old equipment, terrible logistics, inability to tactically plan and prepare.. this is something that has been building for months and planning for years. It’s frankly embarrassing as a show of strength within what it sees as it’s own backyard in familiar terrain it’s accustomed to.
Given how this is going there’s absolutely no chance Russia will take and successfully hold Ukraine. Holding it being the key. There’s also unrest within Russia and no appetite for war amongst the people. This needed to be a swift operation for Putin and it looks very much like his military is being bogged down and suffering heavy losses which will cripple morale and further weaken his hand.
Finally the mighty Russian military is starting to look not all that mighty. Old equipment, terrible logistics, inability to tactically plan and prepare.. this is something that has been building for months and planning for years. It’s frankly embarrassing as a show of strength within what it sees as it’s own backyard in familiar terrain it’s accustomed to.
I totally agree. See my post just now with yours.
The only reason it’s an issue is that you cannot put similar moralistic reasoning as to why the West wouldn’t want to use nukes vs why Putin wouldn’t. End of the day, it’s fair to say he gives zero fecks about his own population - yet alone his Ukrainian “brothers” and obviously even less so Western democratic nations. He’s able to bunker up for 8 months to survive nuclear fallout if necessary.
It’s obviously the last choice and A LOT needs to happen before that’s even on the cards, but I think enough has happened to make it a possibility however slim. I’m left to having blind faith in supposed superior forces of the west/US - e.g. being able to cyber attack the Russian missile systems to shut them down and prevent strikes or something.
Either way, Putin has really demonstrated that he’s willing to do anything to project Russian power including threatening nuclear war (something they war gamed just a couple weeks ago).
I have read about several Russian (super) GMs, who have given statements against the war, for example also their current champion Vitiugov, their young hope Esipenko, their female star Kosteniuk and of course from the old guard there's Kasparov, who seems to have dedicated his post-chess life to opposing Putin.
Aside from the fact that Karpov is a Duma member I really have only read about open support from Karjakin, who seems to go all-in on putin, aggressively spewing propaganda, making jokes about Ukraine and most recently threatening to boycott Carlsen's online chess platform for criticizing him. Which is especially distasteful, since he was actually born in Ukraine and represented them all through his youth and teens.
Yeah Moscow is going to be obliterated within days if not hours if they dare to use them on anyone and I’m not sure it is something Putin’s allies will ever accept. He may make that order but it would probably be something they cannot execute.
The problem is that retreating, whilst understandable, is also a victory for the opposition. Nobody thinks worse of the democratically elected leader of Belarus for leaving after Lukashenko refused to recognise her victory, but ultimately that country is now essentially a complete puppet state for Putin as that was the price Lukashenko was willing to pay to keep power.
I could see Zelenskyy leave Kyiv if that became in real danger of falling, but I cannot see how he can possibly leave the country now whilst Ukrainian forces control part of the country from which he can offer leadership.
Edit: Oh, and I’m 99% certain that were Kyiv to fall and were Zelenskyy killed or captured, there will be very clear plans in place on who is to assume leadership. Obviously, there’s the potential for a power vacuum or infighting, but the Ukrainians have been preparing for this for a long time. There are virtually no divisive voices. Opposition MPs are going on national and international media praising his leadership and committing to fighting alongside him.
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A part of me thinks he's still hoping western military will come to Ukraine and help rather than gather in NATO countries surrounding Ukraine, and if they don't he's prepared to stay with the belief that maybe Ukraine can hold Kyiv and if they can't knows he'll get captured and/or killed. And if he does get caught/killed it could prompt the reaction from the west he's after and really go after Russia in retribution.
Obviously unconfirmed but interesting thread.