Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Dante said:
re:2

His cronies are the only people with the power to do that. Any domestic resistance movement powerful enough to oppose Putin is already be imprisoned or dead. It's a hierarchy built to serve one man.
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The whole world now has some interest in Russian politics, and major vested interest in the correct individual being in power. If there was ever a time to make a move against Putin politically, it’s now. The support will global.
 
11101 said:
I wonder what the US has flying around the Ukraine that requires a bunch of aerial refueling tankers to be on station just over the border in Romania?

LAGR223 from Mildenhall https://fr24.com/LAGR223/2af38247
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Recon flights have been operating for days. LAGR220-223 seem to be going along with the drones and other surveillance craft. FORTE11, IIRC is one of the drones that keeps flying over the Black Sea. HOMER21 is another to look out for, a Rivet Joint (whatever that is, looks to be recon).
 
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BluesJr said:
Russia will have 100% factored all of these sanctions into play. There’s no way they wouldn’t have.
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You think?

Not sure. I think Russia thought that Europe wouldn't do this due to their reliance on oil and gas.
 


This is not to say that Russians haven’t proved themselves utterly incompetent.

Everything from intelligence to the basic stuff like winning air superiority. They’ve absolutely fecked it big time. I’d be absolutely threaders if I served under the command of absolute fecking amateurs.

You know I didn’t truly believe that Sailsbury attack was ordered by top brass in Kremlin because I thought to myself: no fecking way they’d be that amateur. Well now I have it in black in white - the Russian military are objectively shit.

Russia’s two biggest strengths are; sheer numbers for the meat grinder with a caveat that it only works when we as a nation are fighting for our very existence and nukes. Otherwise we’re fecking pathetic at war stuff.

Just rookie mistake after rookie mistake and I absolutely know the reason as to why this happens - It’s arrogance.


I know this for a fact, first hand account - Russians play down all aspects of western military. From drones to SF on the ground.
I have personally heard Russians laugh at 45 Commando Royal Marines doing cold weather training in Norway. Royal Marines would take the VDV/GRU Vympel or any other attachment of relatively new KSO. Simple.
 
Suv666 said:
Hackers savy enough to do to some actual damage are employed by large organisations or by the government they dont have the time for this shit.

State sponsored Russian and Chinese hackers are the real deal. The new ransomwares and malwares which are hitting the internet are proper pieces of software with version control and proper software development practices being followed which many experts believe point to organisations not a bunch of nerds in a basement.
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I’m pretty sure they already know this.
 
Mike Smalling said:
No idea what would happen, but I would hope they keep the sanctions going until enough pressure is created for Putin to be removed.
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Like Venezuela ?.... Putin ain't going anywhere in my opinion. Dictatorship is a dictatorship.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
Nuclear superpowers cannot engage each other directly even though they engage each other indirectly all the time.
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Pretty much this. Besides, what target would Putin have at this point? To target anywhere in Ukraine, would be to poison the whole endeavour, he needs to take Ukraine in one piece - and effect regime change in one fell swoop. The prize is gone, if you inherit a country you've destroyed. Hit anywhere else, and NATO will respond.

He's dedicated and committed, or has placed within striking position, by most estimates, up to 60% of Russian conventional forces within striking distance of Ukraine.

Now, let's just think about for a second. Many military analysts would have thought that mobilising 60% of conventional Russian forces would have not only seized all the Baltics and most of Eastern Europe within 48-72 hours (Admittedly, I don't know if that includes calling up all reservists - which to my limited knowledge, he has not). Now, granted, they haven't fully committed all their forces yet, but most estimates would've said that in 72 hours the Russians would have taken not only taken Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia - and would be rolling through and bearing down on Warsaw, Budapest and Bucharest by now - Ukraine would have been an afterthought. They haven't even taken Ukraine, so far, which was considered basically a highway to larger action. That's before we consider that not a single NATO shot has been fired. Let's be fair, this isn't WW3 and Putin so far isn't launching a full-on assault on the NATO countries but still, think about it. Many analysts would have thought within 72 hours - it's NATO that would have had to deploy tactical nukes contain the Russian advance - not the other way around. This doesn't even take into account that the Russian eastern flank would be weakened and exposed. They could end up not worrying about Russian speakers Ukraine, but having Moscovites and Siberians learning how to speaking Chinese.

My point, this is not going well for Putin. Not at all.
 
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BluesJr said:
Russia will have 100% factored all of these sanctions into play. There’s no way they wouldn’t have.
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If there is anything they could have done to prepare for this (and there yet will be more, we are heading toward a worldwide embargo of everything Russian), then it is news to me or anyone else trying to figure them out.

Putin has totally underestimated not only the Ukrainian resistance but the worldwide (not just western) response.

Russian GDP, as small as it already is, is going to half over night and then some. Imports/Exports will disapear, no materials, no income, no jobs, economy will collapse, the ruble is dead. I hope to god they can sustain themselves with food at least, I've no idea how well they can self sustain themselves.

Their civilian aviation fleet relies on US parts and insurance, that has also been cut off. Anyone hoping to leave at some point should not hang around.

They are fecked.
 
How do Russians in the EU even go about flying back to Russia to see their loved ones?

Putin might shut down Facebook and Twitter but there are Russians abroad who have ties back home. How long before people get a good sense of how much Putin has fecked with them?
 
BluesJr said:
Russia will have 100% factored all of these sanctions into play. There’s no way they wouldn’t have.
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Hard to say. Kicking a major nation like Russia out of Swift will have knock-on effects for the world economy. I bet Putin didn't think they'd do it but it seems everyone realises that this might actually be a major precipice for clipping Russia's wings.
 
Rightnr said:
We keep hearing Putin has prepared but all the evidence so far is of the opposite.

I know sanctions against the Russian CB is huge but I am not sure what that means practically? Does it mean they won't be able to deploy their FX reserves to control the fall in the ruble?

Russia will still get money from oil and gas and while they won't be able to utilise them effectively, I am sure a China or an India would accept a promissory note at a 20, 30 or even 40% haircut and be satisfied they'll be paid in the future.
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There isn't much evidence. Just conjecture mostly from people trying to put a pro western/Ukraine spin on the situation.
Wars never go to plan.

Any assets or finances that can be taken away from Russia effectively by a flick of a switch from the West, Russia would have considered written off before starting any action like this. I mean I would have written them off and I'm not a military/war strategist. The idea any of it is a surprise to Putin who'll have a team of strategists and advisors is ridiculous.
 
GDaly95 said:
Am I right in saying it's currently calmer than expected in Kyiv?
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I think the Russians haven't taken the kid gloves off yet, I have a feeling they were expecting a surrender. After seeing the way they levelled Aleppo, it doesn't look like they are out of first gear yet.
 
VorZakone said:
Sad state of affairs, for the parents too. I wonder what the Russian government told them.

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19 year olds can be absolute killers at that age. Again, Royal Marines take in guys who are 16 and 7 months I think. After 8 months of basic training they’re still not 18 but I guarantee you they feck up 99% of combatants.

Those guys they’ve captured, they’re probably had wool over their eyes. Told how great the Russians are and how incompetent the Ukrainian are.
 
noodlehair said:
There isn't much evidence. Just conjecture mostly from people trying to put a pro western/Ukraine spin on the situation.
Wars never go to plan.

Any assets or finances that can be taken away from Russia effectively by a flick of a switch from the West, Russia would have considered written off before starting any action like this. I mean I would have written them off and I'm not a military/war strategist. The idea any of it is a surprise to Putin who'll have a team of strategists and advisors is ridiculous.
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True, and also false. It's very possible the Russians underestimated the solidarity of the West, and essentially banked on it. None of us know.
 
0161_UNITED said:
Pretty much this. Besides, what target would Putin have at this point? To target anywhere in Ukraine, would be to poison the whole endeavour, he needs to take Ukraine in one piece - and effect regime change in one fell swoop. The prize is gone, if you inherit a country you've destroyed. Hit anywhere else, and NATO will respond.

He's dedicated and committed, or has placed within striking position, by most estimates, up to 60% of Russian conventional forces within striking distance of Ukraine.

Now, let's just think about for a second. Many military analysts would have thought that mobilising 60% of conventional Russian forces would have not only seized all the Baltics and most of Eastern Europe within 48-72 hours (Admittedly, I don't know if that includes calling up all reservists - which to my limited knowledge, he has not). Now, granted, they haven't fully committed all their forces yet, but most estimates would've said that in 72 hours the Russians would have taken not only taken Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia - and would be rolling through and bearing down on Warsaw, Budapest and Bucharest by now - Ukraine would have been an afterthought. They haven't even taken Ukraine, so far, which was considered basically a highway to larger action. That's before we consider that not a single NATO shot has been fired. Let's be fair, this isn't WW3 and Putin so far isn't launching a full-on assault on the NATO countries but still, think about it. Many analysts would have thought within 72 hours - it's NATO that would have had to deploy tactical nukes contain the Russian advance - not the other way around. This doesn't even take into account that the Russian eastern flank would be weakened and exposed. They could end up not worrying about Russian speakers Ukraine, but having Moscovites and Siberians learning how to speaking Chinese.

My point, this is not going well for Putin. Not at all.
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I think this was the doctrine in the sixties and seventies.

Everybody nowadays knew that Russian's army in comparison to US one is shit. We just didn't know that it is shit full stop.
 
noodlehair said:
There isn't much evidence. Just conjecture mostly from people trying to put a pro western/Ukraine spin on the situation.
Wars never go to plan.

Any assets or finances that can be taken away from Russia effectively by a flick of a switch from the West, Russia would have considered written off before starting any action like this. I mean I would have written them off and I'm not a military/war strategist. The idea any of it is a surprise to Putin who'll have a team of strategists and advisors is ridiculous.
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They have definitely considered it in advance:



Expelling Russia from Swift would not isolate Russia financially, as proponents imply. Nor would it be as futile as opponents imagine. The sanction would have “a chilling effect”, in the words of Harley Balzer, emeritus professor at Georgetown University in the US, discouraging some western banks from Russian dealings.

Others would continue to send and receive payments with Russian counterparties. Russia’s own payments messaging system remains largely domestic. Cross-border dealings would probably involve emails, or anachronistic telexes or faxes. Russian business people say this would be fiddly, slow and insecure, but would work much of the time.

The second issue underscored by Swift’s full name is that it is a co-operative based in Belgium, not a US bank or state entity. It is obedient to EU law and its own members, not to Joe Biden or Congress. The US would need to lever Russia out of Swift through pressure on the EU and Swift’s non-Russian members. That, broadly, was how Iran was expelled in 2012. Other sanctions had already isolated the Middle Eastern state financially by then, making the move appear more damaging than it really was. Russia is far more connected.
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Russia has no way to save its skin after these sanctions. No fecking way. They have lost half of their reserves. They are in a war. It will be practically impossible to support ruble. I feel for Russian people. Their major banks will be disconnected from SWIFT, while oligarchs will also lose substantial amount of money. They are indeed done for.
 
From what I read on some Twitter handles, that, North Korea "involvement" was a missile launch towards the Sea of Japan.
 
noodlehair said:
There isn't much evidence. Just conjecture mostly from people trying to put a pro western/Ukraine spin on the situation.
Wars never go to plan.

Any assets or finances that can be taken away from Russia effectively by a flick of a switch from the West, Russia would have considered written off before starting any action like this. I mean I would have written them off and I'm not a military/war strategist. The idea any of it is a surprise to Putin who'll have a team of strategists and advisors is ridiculous.
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Erm, so Putin is deranged and crazy and looks to be bullying people into an invasion but apparently everything else is sorted? Allow me to put a big question mark over this.

I am sure he's had scenarios and all the associated war games but I seriously get the sense he relied on a lot more division, especially in the EU. And one major reason is that there is huge ground support for punishing Russia which enables political decisions to be much more swift.
 
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