I work at an US corporate that also has a branch in Russia, am I right saying with SWIFT switched off they won’t be able to take any card payments? Which virtually shuts their sales off. Thinking about what SWIFT being turned off means in practical terms.
Little doubt the western response that’s been prepared and is now being carried out is designed to force regime change in Russia.
All due respect, @noodlehair, you are right in some ways, and also wrong. They may have all the information, but it doesn't mean they'll accept it. Too many instances where the man in charge won't be considering that. History is littered with leaders who make decisions and decide to reject that intelligence and information that doesn't fit their point of view. Hitler and Napoleon invading Russia in the Winter (it doesn't require a rocket scientist to tell you that's a bad idea), GW Bush and Blair in Iraq, Trump (basically every f*cking day, it's everywhere. Nobody knows if Putin is a rational actor at this point, and quite a few people want to give him, and the Russians, more credit than the deserve, in my opinion.
They haven’t considered taking enough fuel to the Ukraine..
I’m not confident they have a clue what the repercussions of being ostracised by the rest of the world will do to the country in the short, medium and long term.
After we witnessed him bullying his spy chief...I'm pessimistic.
Someone explain to me why this SWIFT decision won't just result in Russia, China, India having an alternative. Don't China have one already? Do we really want Russia being pushed east, or will these sanctions ruin them?
Yeah, I have no idea. The pentagon/NATO obviously have some idea regarding what his frame of reference is but everyone else is just speculating.Problem is if we assume he’s gone completely insane then all the sanctions may be enough of a reason for him to use nukes, or maybe a country sending them weapons is enough, or maybe it’s another country’s leader speaking ill of him is that. We just don’t know what his limit is. Maybe he will launch nukes for no reason at all.
He met Xi 37 times in the past year or so. They're moving east now no matter what happens (with the exception of Putin being taken out via coup).Someone explain to me why this SWIFT decision won't just result in Russia, China, India having an alternative. Don't China have one already? Do we really want Russia being pushed east, or will these sanctions ruin them?
Someone explain to me why this SWIFT decision won't just result in Russia, China, India having an alternative. Don't China have one already? Do we really want Russia being pushed east, or will these sanctions ruin them?
China uses SWIFT. Businesses use the company I work for to send thousands of USD to Chinese suppliers via wire transfers which rely on SWIFT every day.Someone explain to me why this SWIFT decision won't just result in Russia, China, India having an alternative. Don't China have one already? Do we really want Russia being pushed east, or will these sanctions ruin them?
Is there any actual evidence that Putin has gone crazy other than some propaganda Twitter posts?
I can believe he hoped for more division in Ukraine itself but the idea the western allies wouldn't rally strongly against him is completely dumb considering its behind the reason for launching an invasion in the first place.
The idea he's just suddenly gone mad and that he'd launch a literally huge international military operation without any planning or strategising is even dumber.
Things that happen on the ground in a war are hard to predict and plan for. Things like sanctions and reactions from other states are not hard to predict or plan for. You'd assume worst case and strategise from that, the same as with any other crisis or emergency planning.
Someone explain to me why this SWIFT decision won't just result in Russia, China, India having an alternative. Don't China have one already? Do we really want Russia being pushed east, or will these sanctions ruin them?
UK MoD update. It's quite incredible that the UK is providing such regular updates even though it itself isn't fighting.
Was wondering when the whataboutism would begin.What are you trying to say here?
Even if we may consider Putin as a 70yo autocrat surrounded by 60+ oligarchs and scared 60+ cronies who is living into his 1970s bubble, therefore underestimating the collective response of the world in so many aspects, we cannot underestimate what a failed action and a no-win game can do to his mind. That’s way defusion is vital once the eventual failure, if such, kicks into his bubble… with hopefully a way out for him up to the point he can’t be a threat anymore. The form and the way to make him believe he gets something out of this mess and defuse are in the hands of his peers at global level… aka the US and China imho.
Presumably that there's a double standard?What are you trying to say here?
Not sure what you mean, are you trying to draw a line between an apples and pears situation?Was wondering when the whataboutism would begin.
How so?Presumably that there's a double standard?
Pretty obvious what I'm trying to say, no?What are you trying to say here?
Are their economies strong enough to support these systems long-term/at the same level without the US/EU/GB?
How so?
Yep. Perfectly put.Not sure what you mean, are you trying to draw a line between an apples and pears situation?
Oh, the Palestine and Syria whataboutism has been happening for days. I don’t think it does anything to promote their cause.Was wondering when the whataboutism would begin.
ThisWouldn't bother getting them started, seems like a thing to try and compare situations or take away what is happening. People just can't stay on subject.
Source?It seems three convoys of nearly 500 tanks are approaching Kiev amid the constant shelling.
UK MoD update. It's quite incredible that the UK is providing such regular updates even though it itself isn't fighting.
Saw it too on twitter, but can’t remember from whom. 500 tanks seems like a lot, maybe 500 mechanized vehicles.Source?
This idea Putin is some kind of evil genius and that even the rumours of his ill health and his paranoid isolation during Covid are completely unfounded reminds me a bit of the myth of Johnson's bumbling fool act.
Sometimes things are simpler than you think. He's definitely deluded to an extent and the clips he himself released go towards confirming that notion.
I also saw a statement from an ex-Russia US ambassador who himself said Putin has changed and is acting a bit looney.
Or maybe I'm wrong.
So I shouldn't highlight something that is somewhat contradictory in the framing of this conflict? If you think this is me criticising the Ukrainians then you would be wrong, but equally, it would be remiss of me not to note that the hypocrisy stinksStrange thing to post, could go into any conflict and start what about this or even things that happen domestically.
Not convinced that’s a great idea against a dug in military in an urban area with shed tons of anti-tank weapons.It seems three convoys of nearly 500 tanks are approaching Kiev amid the constant shelling.
Just because they have planned for sanctions, doesn't mean they can deal with them!There's no way about this. The sanctions are a very obvious and predictable counter measure. We don't know for a fact if Putin has prepared for them or not, but the idea he hasn't is quite ludicrously stupid and based on no evidence other than the desire to believe he's just randomly gone nuts.
It's not really comparable to the scenarios you've mentioned with are ground based strategies and subject to unpredictable outcomes. The difference between inaccurately predicting your forces can defeat a legion of enemy tanks, and being so dumb as to just expect your enemy wouldn't possibly bother to use their tanks in the first place. The former is a strategic mistake, the latter requires you to be an utterly insane moron.
They have enough fuel they just can't get it to their tanks quickly enough. Again this is just an example of how things never go to plan in a war.
If you me and half this thread seems to know what the sanctions imply, how do you figure that everyone in Russia would be too stupid to figure it out.
I mean come on now
It began probably on page 1Was wondering when the whataboutism would begin.
So I shouldn't highlight something that is somewhat contradictory in the framing of this conflict? If you think this is me criticising the Ukrainians then you would be wrong, but equally, it would be remiss of me not to note that the hypocrisy stinks
Not convinced that’s a great idea against a dug in military in an urban area with shed tons of anti-tank weapons.
Source?
