Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

diarm said:
I share your ignorance. My approach to nuclear weapons subsists of 35 years with my fingers in my ears, pretending they don't exist lest I meltdown thinking about them.

Are all Russia's based in Russia, or do they have them readied in other locations to as well like the US? Do they have them on ships and submarines based around the world?
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The exact numbers of warheads are state secrets so everything is just guess work. It is belived that Russia has around 6500 nuclear warheads. That include landbased, airborne, ship and submarine based warheads.
 
dinostar77 said:
Never going to happen. Some people in this thread going way over the top.
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Well said. Let's just wait and see how things play out.
I have no worries at this moment of any likelihood of any nuclear weapons.
The whole point of having them is to use them as a threat.
In a sense, it is starting to demonstrate that things are not going the way he hoped.
This is his predictable reaction to all of the sanctions and support that Ukraine is getting and shows how marginalised he already is.
 
zing said:
Thanks - why are there people here saying Europe can be destroyed in minutes, as well as the world?

Is that due to the magnitude of today's nukes or does Russia have lots of them, and that's a worst case scenario where he just targets everyone?
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They have almost 1500 of them available and about 5000 in reserve.
 
esmufc07 said:
Surely it isn’t going to get to the point where Nukes are used? Or am I being naive at this point?
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Putin's declaration is for local consumption. The Russian public was onboard for a quick operation to protect the Dombas region from the government of Kyiv. Many consider that government to be both under influence of neo-nazis in Ukraine and to be led by a puppet of the US. And either way Russians want their "brothers" to be protected.

Now that it is clear Putin went far beyond the regions that he had the mandate to protect, he has to justify the war, and the only plausible justification is "Russia is under threat". And when you are under threat you get the Nukes ready. He intends to divert the Russian public from discussing the unlawful invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that will hurt them massively. So he has to make them focus on the "existential threat to the Russian nation posed by the evil West".
 
Frosty said:
Russia would likely launch many, not one. It would end the world. They take 4 minutes to reach the UK and Western Europe so we would only have time to respond with a retaliatory strike.

The UK's nuclear submarines would open the letter of last resort in their safe and carry out the PM's instructions.
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I think 4 minute time windows means you don't have time to react, double check, or even call Bojo to ask him what to do.

My guess is that once a launch has been detected some sort of "automatic" mechanism will be triggered.

A few hours, yes.. but 4 minute?
 
Pintu said:
Putin's declaration is for local consumption. The Russian public was onboard for a quick operation to protect the Dombas region from the government of Kyiv. Many consider that government to be both under influence of neo-nazis in Ukraine and to be led by a puppet of the US. And either way Russians want their "brothers" to be protected.

Now that it is clear Putin went far beyond the regions that he had the mandate to protect, he has to justify the war, and the only plausible justification is "Russia is under threat". And when you are under threat you get the Nukes ready. He intends to divert the Russian public from discussing the unlawful invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that will hurt them massively. So he has to make them focus on the "existential threat to the Russian nation posed by the evil West".
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Thank you.
 
zing said:
Ignorant question - how bad are nuclear weapons?

Do they wipe out cities, countries? What happens in the event of Russia launching one? Will there be time to react?
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One nuclear bomb could wipe out around 720,000 people in an average city.

Basically no survival within 2 km of the blast area (around 120,000 people killed)

and around half the people within 2 to 11km away from blast will be killed from burns, smoke, collapse building and radiations (around 500,000 killed)

Of course there are also aftermath of radiation, with dust and ashes travelling with wind, causing smaller no. of deaths outside 11km range (say 100,000 killed)

But some may survive if they managed to hide away from blast and radiation.

But it is also estimated a detonation of around 300 nukes in short period of time, and also at the right place/infrastructure, would clog the Earth's stratosphere and block sunlight, destroy planet's ozone layer and trigger drop in global temperature that could last 25 years, would destroy ecosystem and spark a global famine, and assume electricity, transportation, water, food production are all knocked out too, and together with the spread of radiation, eventually would lead to extinction of humanity.

And Russia alone has possession of 6500 of nuclear warheads.

So we are basically fecked, if nuclear war happened.
 
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How have countries been allowed to possess such great numbers of nuclear weapons? I've already stated i think nobody should have. It's like bringing a rocket launcher to a fist fight, just cowradly.
 
Frosty said:
During the Cold War we knew that ICBMs would take roughly 30 minutes to hit the USA and less than 5 to hit the UK. This does, as you say, depend on where the missiles are launched from. There are no longer missiles in East Germany and Czechia, but the extra distance they have to cover is offset in advances in rocketry.

Even more disturbing, the Russian nuclear launch system is automated, so does not require Presidential input in certain circumstances.
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They don't need to use ICBMs on Europe. The Iskander ballistic missiles can carry nuclear warheads with a range of around 700km. They have them in Kalinigrad and since a month ago in Belarus. They could reach most of eastern Europe wihin minutes with them.
 
YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
Every single one should be out their. They surely can't mute millions of people at the same time.
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Easy to say from thousands of miles away.... when you have kids etc I can imagine that deciding to protest against a regime like Russia can be a more nuanced decision.

An ideal scenario would of course be a mass uprising... putin stepping down and a true democracy taking over....

I'd say putin launching a few nukes and sending millions if protesters to siberian education camps is at least as likley as an outcome though
 
Smithy89 said:
How have countries been allowed to possess such great numbers of nuclear weapons? I've already stated i think nobody should have. It's like bringing a rocket launcher to a fist fight, just cowradly.
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actually they mostly prevented wars so far. The fear of armageddon is something that everybody has.
 
Frosty said:
During the Cold War we knew that ICBMs would take roughly 30 minutes to hit the USA and less than 5 to hit the UK. This does, as you say, depend on where the missiles are launched from. There are no longer missiles in East Germany and Czechia, but the extra distance they have to cover is offset in advances in rocketry.

Even more disturbing, the Russian nuclear launch system is automated, so does not require Presidential input in certain circumstances.
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Well they got a few just next to our border in Kaliningrad so I guess I wouldn’t really have time to worry if they actually used them.
 
Sky1981 said:
I think 4 minute time windows means you don't have time to react, double check, or even call Bojo to ask him what to do.

My guess is that once a launch has been detected some sort of "automatic" mechanism will be triggered.

A few hours, yes.. but 4 minute?
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There are multiple safe guards in place to prevent any accidental automatic launch of any payload with a nuclear warhead. Also back channels exist between USA and Russia to prevent any miscommunication and misunderstandings.
 
spiriticon said:
I am so sick of this madman.
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Don't think he is a mad man. He is very cold and calculating.
But years in power have separated him from reality. So he no longer lives in the real world or cares about real people.
He is simply a meglomaniac drunk on power and his own importance.
 
Skåre Willoch said:
6000+ nukes would absolutely destroy the world, never mind Europe. Total annihilation.
The amount of radiation in the atmosphere would spread all across the world, poisoning water supplies, crops and everything else. A new ice age would possibly be another consequence. There might be survivors, but nevertheless we’re back to the Stone Age.

This is exactly why I don’t think it’ll happen, though.
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If every nuke in the world is thrown, civilization will end but humanity will survive. In fact, the majority of people are going to die from nuclear fallout and the winter following it, not from kinetic energy.

I think that there were studies that were giving an 1 to 1000 to 1 to 10000 chance that every human will for, so it is unlikely that we will have the end of humanity. But we will definitely have the end of civilization.
 
RedRonaldo said:
One nuclear bomb could wipe out around 720,000 people in an average city.

Basically no survival within 2 km of the blast area (around 120,000 people killed)

and around half the people within 2 to 11km away from blast will be killed from burns, smoke, collapse building and radiations (around 500,000 killed)

Of course there are also aftermath of radiation, with dust and ashes travelling with wind, causing smaller no. of deaths outside 11km range (say 100,000 killed)

But some may survive if they managed to hide away from blast and radiation.

But it is also estimated a detonation of around 300 nukes in short period of time, at the right place/infrastructure, would clog the Earth's stratosphere and block sunlight, destroy planet's ozone layer and trigger drop in global temperature that could last 25 years, would destroy ecosystem and spark a global famine, and assume electricity, transportation, water, food production are knocked out too, and together with the spread of radiation, eventually would lead to extinction of humanity.

And Russia alone has possession of 6500 of nuclear warheads.

So we are basically fecked, if nuclear war happened.
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I cannot imagine how sick one would need to be to launch them. Surely it’s not just click of a button thing and would actually require more than 1 or 2 people?
 
zing said:
Thanks - why are there people here saying Europe can be destroyed in minutes, as well as the world?

Is that due to the magnitude of today's nukes or does Russia have lots of them, and that's a worst case scenario where he just targets everyone?
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Not sure if someone else has responded, but you also should consider radiation and long lasting effects of dropping nukes in certain areas. It’s a biological catastrophe and water,soil, air will be basically a biological hazard. This residual radiation will take place long after the explosion.
 
So how is he going to sell a peace treaty with nazis and devil himself back home, with 100k+ eyewitnesses going back who know what sort of peacekeeping mission this was?
 
Buster15 said:
Don't think he is a mad man. He is very cold and calculating.
But years in power have separated him from reality. So he no longer lives in the real world or cares about real people.
He is simply a meglomaniac drunk on power and his own importance.
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Not trying to be a smart ass here, but for me your description fits mad pretty damn well.
 
Buster15 said:
Don't think he is a mad man. He is very cold and calculating.
But years in power have separated him from reality. So he no longer lives in the real world or cares about real people.
He is simply a meglomaniac drunk on power and his own importance.
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This happens to lots of dictators but I'm not gonna lie, I thought that wouldn't happen to Putin. But even he has seemingly succumbed to "dictator losing reality" trope.
 
zing said:
Ignorant question - how bad are nuclear weapons?

Do they wipe out cities, countries? What happens in the event of Russia launching one? Will there be time to react?
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Entirely depends on how warhead size and how many are used. But no not countries, unless you're looking at somewhere like Malta.
 
Revan said:
If every nuke in the world is thrown, civilization will end but humanity will survive. In fact, the majority of people are going to die from nuclear fallout and the winter following it, not from kinetic energy.

I think that there were studies that were giving an 1 to 1000 to 1 to 10000 chance that every human will for, so it is unlikely that we will have the end of humanity. But we will definitely have the end of civilization.
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This is basically what I was trying to say, that the actual explosions is only “stage 1”, the aftermath will be even worse.
 
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