About that thermobaric weapon by the way, my local mainstream media outlet is also reporting it. Ukrainian ambassador told US Congress about it.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Will be interesting to see if Biden mentions it in his speech tomorrow night.
EU, if cooperating well would have this at disposition (approximate numbers):
€223.4 billion mil. budget
1,3 million active military personell
8400 battle tanks
25000 armoured vehicles
290 Nukes:
5 Fleet carriers
4 Amphibious assault ships
24 Amphibious assault ships
34 destroyers
73 frigates
38 corvettes
156 patrol vessels
146 anti-mine ships
4 missile subs
46 attack subs
11000 Artillery
800 attack helicopters
1677 ground- and attack fighters
384 transport and refueling planes
Not insignificant. Add EDA states, Finland etc in a cooperation and the numbers would increase even more. However, Nato would be involved anyways, since most nations in EU are members.
Blow all the bridges along the Irpin river to Kyiv's West would help to an extent, although I think some of that territory is now Russia's. I can't really see a way of doing it for the North tbh. Just destroying the roads ain't a lot of help because that's very quick for a military to rectify/go over/tracked vehicles go around. Really you want something that they can't drive through at a position where they also can't go around the sides easily. Tank hulls without the tracks are pretty good obstacles, they weight a shit tonne and need specialised equipment to move.
It will only slow them, but when it's stationary is when you give them hell from the sides.
I was thinking literally blow the road and surrounding ground up… seen stories that convoy trying to avoid going off road due to weather/ground conditions.
Desperately sad, feel like I’m suggesting some kid throws stones at a school bully who’s got a gun. Feels inevitable
Interesting point here. I think a lot of people expected major cyber operations by Russia. Could still be coming though, don't tempt them.
I was thinking literally blow the road and surrounding ground up… seen stories that convoy trying to avoid going off road due to weather/ground conditions.
Desperately sad, feel like I’m suggesting some kid throws stones at a school bully who’s got a gun. Feels inevitable
They'll get it filled in quickly enough with earth. Will work for pretty much anything that isn't a tank though initially.
I don't think even my tank idea works very well now I think about it more, they'll have armoured recovery vehicles in the column because they'll need to pull ones that break down out the way.
The way to make it a problem for them is to fire at them while they attempt to un-feck it to make the whole process take 10x longer, even random shots fired into the air can have the effect. But sooner or later they will figure out where they are taking fire from.
I don’t think it is that hopeless. There are like 400k people fighting for Ukraine right now. Some of them know the city very well which is huge advantage.I was thinking literally blow the road and surrounding ground up… seen stories that convoy trying to avoid going off road due to weather/ground conditions.
Desperately sad, feel like I’m suggesting some kid throws stones at a school bully who’s got a gun. Feels inevitable
This doesn’t change the fact a large number of them will soon die. It’s tragic.
Kyiv will be taken in a few days imo.
And they’ll have air support?
Shitload of mines? In this age though, probably be seen by satellite, nothings a secret nowadays.
We had calls with the BOE at the weekend about the potential for wide-scale attacks on UK banks. It's scary stuff.
Yeah with the force they are going in it’s very likely Kyiv will be taken. I am still of the opinion there is absolutely no way for Russia to hold the country though, not with the level of resistance Ukrainians have shown so far. It’s scary to think how many of them will sacrifice their lives.
"Taken" is a pretty subjective term. If they manage to get into the city, they would still need to fend off a massive insurgency, which will bog them down for months or years.
Years easily. It’s a 44 million country and you can’t just claim it as yours in 2022. It can’t work. These people will never consider themselves Russian, they will not accept a pro-Russian government and they will resist forever. Their lives will be extremely miserable for a long time though.
Yeah, they should not be staying in any one place for any real period of time having engaged the enemy. Which they seem to be doing a good job of.
Mines/IEDs is a good shout. Anything to slow them down and make this drag out.
yeah this is true, but I guess they'll consider it 'taken'.
What's Putin's plan to control Ukraine after this? Military occupation? He can't install a puppet. They'd be gone as quickly as they came in.
Don't want to overpromote but watching this is fascinating.
Putin sounds like the quintessential Eastern European boomer. Doesn't use the internet, his English is decent but not great and he doesn't have a phone.
One example they gave is if a video on YouTube slating him goes viral, he'd have images of the video printed out for him.
This is the kind of stuff that makes me think that generation (or the politicians from it) will end us all before they go to the grave.
He probably hasn't thought that far since he previously thought he could stroll in and take over without any problems. He won't be able to do much once he wins a few cities, since by then, the sanctions will lacerate Russia from within. I still don't see anyway out for him given that the price of sanctions will be much higher than the perceived glory of clumsily gaining control of parts of a neighboring country.
Kofman said in a long series of tweets that Putin did not want to hammer Ukraine in order not to alienate both populations, which are pretty much intertwined. Yet, he is an impatient wolf now, hunting for blood. There will be a last gasp opportunity for a 2nd round of talks to avoid a pretty ugly siege, much probably… and the call would be on Zelensky, in case, with almost no leverage to buy more time.
Mig-29s on their way? Could they get them there/in the air in 6-12 hours?
The weak spot about any convoy is all bunched up… great target for air attack IF you get past the air defence.
I don't think Putin is incentivized to do any talking right now. At this point, he is in a race against time to take over as many large cities as possible, kill Zelenskyy and Ukrainian leaders, and claim sort of victory before the sanctions put excruciating pressure on him at home and destabilize his regime from within.
He's not gonna occupy Ukraine, he'll take or threaten to take Kiev and will occupy/directly control Eastern Ukraine with reasonable popular support. If Western parts of Ukraine want to follow the government approved by Russia in Kiev, fine for Putin, if they decide not to they will have go for autonomy and establish another 'temporary' capitol in Lviv for example, and that will create a new de facto situation beneficial for Putin as he's only really after the Eastern part.
Everybody is talking about Kyiv right now, but Russia has been advancing steadily in the South and the land-bridge to Crimea is almost already secured. The whole shore East to Crimea is now in Russia's hands except Mariupol which is on the verge of being completely besieged deep in Russian controlled territory, and that won't be good news for the resilient Azov battalion there.
I would just be amazed if they don't have Buk launchers and mobile radar mixed in there. Although based on some of the things they've done so far...
Not my area of expertise, but I reckon they'd have to come in super low, use any terrain as much as they can, get the weapons off and then I just don't think they get away more often than not. Depends on the quantity of aircraft but you're probably only going to get away with it once by catching them by surprise, and I just don't know if they could do enough damage to really make any kind of dent. Highway of Hell for example was hours of passes rather than 5 minutes or whatever TV etc portrays. They'd need 100's of sorties to deal with a convoy that big.
They're definitely vulnerable and this doesn't look like a good way to conduct an offensive. 60+ kilometres of forces lining up in one long line is nuts, forget air forces, they could easily get flanked and obstructed. This could easily end in a disaster for Putin.
It's all just a bad dream isn't it? It has to be.
The lines between satire and reality have become so blurred. It's truly terrifying.
I would like to know what the Ukrainian military leadership is thinking seeing such a convoy. It is impossible that its length does not affect morale.
Will they wait until they are near the city so they are more vulnerable. Fighting building by building or on the contrary the main forces will retreat
Do they have units in the west of the country ready to launch some sort of counterattack south of Kiev to avoid being pocketed?. All those weapons that they are receiving will already immediately make a difference?
Will they wait until they are near the city so they are more vulnerable. Fighting building by building or on the contrary the main forces will retreat
Do they have units in the west of the country ready to launch some sort of counterattack south of Kiev to avoid being pocketed?. All those weapons that they are receiving will already immediately make a difference?
It's hard to tell if it's confidence or arrogance. In fairness, the allies did very similar in 2003, because they knew they could e.g. https://eu.providencejournal.com/picture-gallery/news/2018/03/20/gallery-the-iraq-war/737970007/
Liz truss has less brains than half a bag of flour, it's not long ago the Russians were laughing at her.
They're full of shit and she's a total bellend.
Yep, these current negotiations are likely just a sham for Putin to buy time to reposition forces and logistics. There has been a clear slowdown in operational pace from the Russians today. Hopefully the UKR military will be ready for a likely new approach.
Hopefully Putin will be long gone and forgotten about by the time Trump attempts to be elected in 2024. Although feck knows who might replace him.
It's pretty surreal seeing former officials like this ex US ambassador to Russia openly pleading Russians to get out. Incredible times.
A key difference is that the allies lined up their vehicles like that outside of Iraq, not inside.
I know. It’s just… goddamn that road is a mouthwateringly target rich environment
Ukraine should be much better than Saddam in 2003, much much better. For starters they have a much more advanced weapons and they have the full support of NATO, plus their army has been fighting for 8 years, so it has a good fighting experience. Add to that, this column is inside (the village and cities of) Ukraine. This is definitely a big gamble and the odds don't even look in Putin's favor to be honest.
True, but it was in the range of Scuds and any piece of junk the Iraqi's could potentially get off the ground.
I don't think Russia see Ukraine as a realistic threat to it or they are willing to take certain losses to it. Or they're just completely inept. Probably the latter.
Posting this again if you’re wondering how the war might go once the Russians actually get into major cities
https://mwi.usma.edu/urban-warfare-project/
Here’s an aggregate article drawing on lessons from many of the case studies
https://mwi.usma.edu/defending-the-...ics-from-the-modern-history-of-urban-warfare/
https://mwi.usma.edu/urban-warfare-project/
Here’s an aggregate article drawing on lessons from many of the case studies
https://mwi.usma.edu/defending-the-...ics-from-the-modern-history-of-urban-warfare/
As expected, Zelensky's call to join the EU met mainly warm welcome from the Eastern (less rich) countries in the EU...
On the other hand, Germany had a different tone:
Germany might again get criticized for this position, but it's the sensible position to take for the EU.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/8-eu-cou...to-fast-track-membership-talks-211832800.html
On the other hand, Germany had a different tone:
Germany might again get criticized for this position, but it's the sensible position to take for the EU.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/8-eu-cou...to-fast-track-membership-talks-211832800.html
I didn't say 'objective'. I'm saying the Russian side is mostly or fully state controlled, i.e. not independent. Furthermore, they are controlled by the state in a much more direct way than for example the BBC or NRK. Going "both sides are equally bad" is reductive and unhelpful.
Saying you've heard more wrong things from "Ukraine's side" is very misleading, given Ukraine has 100x the support, and thus many more uninformed people online. And it doesn't help that your examples of 'wrong things' are partly basically memes upvoted on Reddit or Twitter, not actual, significant content. You might as well put the 'Steven Seagal is with Russian special forces' thing in the Ukraine wrong column. One valid example you have was that of the 'Russian tank' which was neither a tank nor Russian, but you missed that it was fairly early on identified as a panicked driver trying to find his unit and appearing to be engaged. Not, as you suggested, someone who deliberately drove over a civilian to enforce a curfew (which I don't believe had even been expanded yet). That suggests to me that you may be overestimating the misinformation from the Ukrainian side and underestimating that from the Russians.
Misinformation such as the 'tank' is a real issue, though, I very much agree with that. That one is made worse by the fact that, as I mentioned, it was 'solved' early on, but another story gained traction on Reddit. Reddit is an obviously terrible place to get your information, but sadly many people do. Stuff like this thread is vastly preferable.