Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Just making the point that if you let Russia land grab state by state, at what point do you decide it’s time to intervene?

Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine…Lithuania, Slovakia, Estonia, Romania?

If they do it incrementally, one per decade before letting relations settle and the world adjust to the new normal and then move onto the next you will always have people saying “it’s not worth it they have nukes”.
And we already let them take Georgia. This isn't the end.
 
Just making the point that if you let Russia land grab state by state, at what point do you decide it’s time to intervene?

Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine…Lithuania, Slovakia, Estonia, Romania?

If they do it incrementally, one per decade before letting relations settle and the world adjust to the new normal and then move onto the next you will always have people saying “it’s not worth it they have nukes”.
Exactly, salami tactics.
 
Most def. But then, I fail to see how a burned Russia is Russia to its glory days, which is one of the three reasons, I feel we might not have a nuclear war.

To a crazy person, like Putin has seemed to have become, such outcomes are unlikely because he believes that the West/ NATO in particular, won't go to war with him over Ukraine. However if they do and he goes down (in whatever history is left in the world) as the man who tried to restore 'Mother Russia' to her former greatness...and he'd probably be happy to sign off with that!
 
I don't think that's his character, to rule the world or see it burn. I think he knows the West is afraid to face Russian troops because of those nukes. He's a cold, calculating reptile who cares deeply about his own wealth and power. I don't think he's the sort to end the world. That video posted about his personality said he wouldn't launch, or even move the danger of launch to 20%, but if he thought he could get political power from moving that threat from 1-3% he would do it because he's a risk taker.

I agree he isn't as deranged as some videos suggest that his propaganda apparatus posted, but that it's a bluff. That being said, I also have no idea how he would react if we decided to send in the drones and take out his tank convoy, which imo would a doable support, even without risking our own troops.
 
I agree he isn't as deranged as some videos suggest that his propaganda apparatus posted, but that it's a bluff. That being said, I also have no idea how he would react if we decided to send in the drones and take out his tank convoy, which imo would a doable support, even without risking our own troops.

He'd react by shooting them down. It wouldn't be difficult. That convoy isn't not going to have anti-air.
 
feels almost inevitable at this point as its encircled - there is a huge convoy of artillery on the way... and NATO is shrugging its shoulders and at most considering some extra sanctions

Fully expect it to be a pile of rubble and Zelenski dead by the time the next Ukraine / Russia talks take place with the talks basically being surrender or we move onto another city...

NATO is doing much more than simply shrugging its shoulders. But all of its member states have been explicit that they are not going to out soldiers on the ground to fight Russian soldiers. Nor military aircraft.

But as Putin escalates warfare, he risks a change of policy.
NATO has to tread very carefully because Russia is not attacking a NATO member.
 
Not sure how strategic a location we are ? And also indebted? If they want to come and repossess their highways and overpass they are welcome to come for them
Next to the US? You joke but that’s not how they financed the loan, they gave a huge amount of land to China (I think it was for 50years). Long term fear for the US is they can start to affect policies in the Caribbean which will not benefit the US but benefit China.
 
Just making the point that if you let Russia land grab state by state, at what point do you decide it’s time to intervene?

Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine…Lithuania, Slovakia, Estonia, Romania?

If they do it incrementally, one per decade before letting relations settle and the world adjust to the new normal and then move onto the next you will always have people saying “it’s not worth it they have nukes”.

The line stops at a NATO member. You can be absolutely sure of that.
 
who gives a shit about whom has started ww3 if we're all dead?

can't believe people are so eager to die and especially are willing to let billions of people suffer with them...

I’ve got faulty towers who started the war sketch in my head now!

I don’t think anybody is eager to die - it’s a question of judgement on how far the west is prepared to let Putin go.

I also don’t believe the west getting involved would definitely lead to nuclear war. Nobody is saying it but to some extent we are already at war with Russia. We’re sending equipment that will directly kill Russian troops. If Putin was that serious he’d already be firing his nukes.
 
Russia have missile call Satan which has range of 7000 miles and can't be hit by any counter weapon. Usa has similiar nukes. In one word; Russia can hit every big city in USA and vice versa.

That is why (well, imo) there will never be ww3. All sides know that it is the end for all

Mutual destruction, has probably stopped a major world war since 1945 and hopefully continues to stop fully blown ww.

I think it is brinkmanship, bluff, scare tactics for negotiation power but there is always that very small doubt which is what he is playing on. I doubt he would do it and if he tried would others go along with it? Would his generals agree? Would the people launching actually launch. There was a computer error during the Cold War and thankfully Petrov made the right call.....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kionas...r-and-the-man-who-stopped-it/?sh=53044a2f2835

I can't see an all out attack ever being ordered from one side but tactical use when things not going well could escalate.

Problem with making threats is that once you use a threat you can not back down or else no one will take you seriously again. At the moment this is just a reminder I think that they have weapons but best outcome is either his own people get him out or negotiations give him something to save face, to give him a way out where he can claim some kind of victory and say this was his plan all along.

Cuban missile crisis in 1962 , eventually Russia backed down, returning the missiles already in Cuba to the Soviet Union. In return, USA committed to never invading Cuba and also secretly promised to withdraw the nuclear-armed missiles that the United States had stationed in Turkey.

No one wants to give Putin anything out of this but ultimately he needs a way out of this and so if we want to de-escalate then maybe we have to promise to remove nukes from certain locations in Eastern Europe (makes little difference as we can fire them from anywhere but makes it look good for Putin who can claim that invasion was because NATO surrounding borders etc......).....or maybe it isn't about that and agree to independence for certain regions in Ukraine.....who knows maybe Putin is just seeing what he can gain from all of this.
 
Can NATO really stand by and let this happen? Can the leaders of western europe just watch it unfold and do nothing of substance? It feels so wrong.

I know people bring up yemen, palenstine or the yhugers in china but this is on our doorstep.

We must help those who cannot help themselves in their hour of need, especially when facing overwhelming odds. I am ashamed, saddened and disgusted with this voyeuristic war playing out on social media.

We (the west) need to do more. I realise the consequences are enormous if we do, but what does it say of humanity in general if we just watch a country be destroyed, a people slaughtered and innocent children murdered in cold blood?
It wouldn't say anything new. The west is currently helping KSA do the same thing to innocent Yemeni children.

So let's keep the discussion more on practical issues rather than some imaginary morality.

Putin's invasion of Ukraine is worse than other wars, not because he is evil, but because he poses a serious and powerfull threat, and letting him get away with it in Ukraine will be far more destructive to our societies than whatever intervening and protecting Ukraine's sovereignty woul cost us.

He is invading Ukraine because he keeps winning. Because the West keeps retreating and allowing him to win his wars. The West did let Putin win in Chetchenya, they let him win in Georgia, he is winning in Syria. He was already given a first win in Ukraine when we all forget about Crimea. If we give him the Donbas, he will ask for the rest of Ukraine next, and who knows how far this goes. It is about time the EU and other NATO countries say no.
 
Nobody wants ww3. But technically it would be Putin that started it. Would love to be a fly on the wall of security meetings in western countries right now.

I don't think it really matters who started it when the prospect of Nukes are involved.
 
The first wave of Russian attack over the past 6 days has pretty much been woefully incompetent, replete with surrendering soldiers, running out of fuel, lack of morale, and generally getting beaten back by Ukrainians with lesser arms but far greater enthusiasim. The 2nd wave of Russian attack which focuses on aerial strikes, heavy artillery, and entrenched urban combat, may be a completely different story.

Sifting through information and knowing what to believe is an incredibly tough task in the best of times, but during war time it is practically impossible when controlling the information is a vital part of warfare. It's the constant state of reading something, an article, twitter thread, whatever, and then questioning the information but having no tools to independently verify what you're being told.
 
Where is the line in the sand? What after ukraine he goes after another non nato european country then another and another?

There is already a line in the sand 'one foot into NATO territory equals WW3'.

Unfortunately, Ukraine isn't in NATO which is why NATO doing everything short of actually starting WW3'.
 
I’ve got faulty towers who started the war sketch in my head now!

I don’t think anybody is eager to die - it’s a question of judgement on how far the west is prepared to let Putin go.

I also don’t believe the west getting involved would definitely lead to nuclear war. Nobody is saying it but to some extent we are already at war with Russia. We’re sending equipment that will directly kill Russian troops. If Putin was that serious he’d already be firing his nukes.

We drew the line quite clearly many years ago and those who participated and those who did not participate decided that line for themselves: it's NATO membership. That's exactly how far we let Russia go until we start an open war with them. We really aren't at war at this moment, it's a classic proxy war situation, as we finance and supply Ukraine.
No, Putin, as crazy as he is, knows damn well that direct involvement is what counts. There's a good reason why we're not sending troops and start bombing the shit out of the convoy that some people here dream about like it's a shitty video game.
 
He is invading Ukraine because he keeps winning. Because the West keeps retreating and allowing him to win his wars. The West did let Putin win in Chetchenya, they let him win in Georgia, he is winning in Syria. He was already given a first win in Ukraine when we all forget about Crimea. If we give him the Donbas, he will ask for the rest of Ukraine next, and who knows how far this goes. It is about time the EU and other NATO countries say no.
It’s a pretty depressing world if we just sit by militarily, leaving those countries with aspirations of joining NATO/EU to fall under Russian imperial interference and subsequently the threat of Russian invasion should the people continue to view their future in the West.

Edit: missing word
 
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This is an interesting video. A bit off-topic I know, but it seems highly likely that Trasnistria will get pulled into this.
 
I agree he isn't as deranged as some videos suggest that his propaganda apparatus posted, but that it's a bluff. That being said, I also have no idea how he would react if we decided to send in the drones and take out his tank convoy, which imo would a doable support, even without risking our own troops.
If the world calls his bluff, Putin will be in a very weak position, which is undoubtedly very dangerous. If the EU accepts Ukraine, agrees to defend it and the US agrees to help, it will take time for this to build up. In that time Putin could level Ukraine entirely, he could expand this army into other regions (assuming they can manage it), use chemical and biological attacks on Europe then retreat to Russia and use nukes on anyone trying to enter Russia (if you hit troops only with smaller nukes this doesn't necessitate a full launch by the other side) either in Russia or right outside the border.

But none of that benefits Putin, it just hurts his enemy. You have to wonder how China would react, they have nukes too! They won't be happy at the idea of Russia destroying the world. I could see China making the peace, but only if the West actually engages Russia.
 
If the world calls his bluff, Putin will be in a very weak position, which is undoubtedly very dangerous. If the EU accepts Ukraine, agrees to defend it and the US agrees to help, it will take time for this to build up. In that time Putin could level Ukraine entirely, he could expand this army into other regions (assuming they can manage it), use chemical and biological attacks on Europe then retreat to Russia and use nukes on anyone trying to enter Russia (if you hit troops only with smaller nukes this doesn't necessitate a full launch by the other side) either in Russia or right outside the border.

But none of that benefits Putin, it just hurts his enemy. You have to wonder how China would react, they have nukes too! They won't be happy at the idea of Russia destroying the world. I could see China making the peace, but only if the West actually engages Russia.

get a grip

some of you lot start getting carried away with your fantasies, absolute mad shit