Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Russia must thinks about soft powers too. At the moment, I only see hard powers from the aggressive Putin. Right now, the best way he can do is to add more powers in negotiation. If Russia soldiers retreat, you know what happen.

The reasons he can't conquer Ukraine

1. Russian economy is destroyed in a lot of ways from many sources and countries.
2.Ukraine is fecking unity.
3.Ukraine has a lot of supports from a lot of western countries especially in weapons.
4.He can't end in short terms due to Kyiv's landscapes, if he wants to win in Kyiv, he must seize both entire and exit and he couldn't do it.
5. I'm not even sure, he will have enough money to retains military operations in 3-4 months.
 
11101 said:
That's what worries me. I don't think for a minute that Putin will actually use his. He is a tyrant who has made a big mistake with Ukraine but he's not a lunatic. If a genuine loose cannon like Kim Jong Un gets his hands on them though?
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Thing is, I actually don't think Kim Jong Un is even that irrational. If anything he's utterly predictable - grab the world's attention, test a bomb, get some sort of concession/attention or whatever, calm down aaaand repeat.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a clear example as to how difficult it is to successfully and cleanly move into a country without the very best planning, training and experience. NK would be so fecked if they attempted anything (plus anything less than full blessing from China would mean they'd probably get invaded by China, looking at their reaction to Putin's war). NK are far less likely to nuke anyone than Russia.
 
Maps


Base on only Kyiv's landscape, it's very tough to occupy from Russia.
 
UpWithRivers said:
Russia has said for years that it wont allow Ukraine to become a Nato country. Thats the whole reason for the war. The endgame is Russia neutralizes Ukraine. They make it impossible for it to become Nato and at the same time sets up president that any of the other countries cant as well - Latvia, Estonia, Finland and yes even Belarus (they could elect a West leaning politician in the future). They have already achieved this objective no matter what happens in Ukraine. I cannot see any of those countries joining Nato. If they do they risk the same treatment as Ukraine. Maybe Finland would get away with it.

The Wests endgame is to demonize Russia. This will make it so all these countries dont lean towards Russia like Belarus has. Russia could even be influencing countries like Czech, Poland etc and trying to elect pro Russian governments. Its the game that has been played since the second world war. Also they have legitimate reasons to fk up the Russian economy and turn the world against them.
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So true. Before you know it the Americans across the pond will also want to join NATO.
 
Hound Dog said:
What about the radiation? I have never seriously considered this, but wouldn't detonating ie 1000 nukes effectively end life via radiation? The same way as the initial asteroid strike killed some of the dinosaurs and the consequences of the ensuing cloud killed what was left of them?
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I'm no expert but I've seen a documentary video on YouTube a year ago or so. Exploding all nukes that currently exist would make earth hostile and inhabitable as far as the authors are concerned. It came across as if that was commonly agreed on. Not sure where the critical point was but it was surrly much higher than 30 nukes. 1000 is a different question.

Paxi said:


We’re all going to fecking die!!
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At this point it is very obvious what they are trying to do, IMO. Russia sees democracies as weak because the leadership depends on the population which is quite moody and easy to manipulate in their eyes. So they publicly use phrases like WW3 and nukes to freak us out and increase the pressure on our political leaders who aren't that easy to intimidate.
 
sun_tzu said:
12 of the 15 reactors were connected to the grid pre 1990 - so i wouldnt be too confident they align with the more modern standards
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I've just had a quick look at Zaporizhzhia. That's using WWER. So primary and secondary water-based cooling circuits with vessel walls and containment building wall that are thick steel and concrete (which Chernobyl does/did not have)

In those reactors, the water is actually the moderator, so if you lose both the primary and secondary cooling circuits you have a negative void coefficient where without water, the reaction slows.

But that was commissioned in the 90s, I'll find the time to read more about their older ones.

EDIT: They're all using WWER.
 
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Problem is Putin has backed himself into a corner, and the only people close enough to do anything about it are scared sh*tless of him or huge sycophants. This really does feel like endgame stuff for him, the terrifying bit is that he's probably crazy enough to take us all down with him.

How much faith do we have in the US/Nato, hell even China having a clever plan to stop that happening?
 
Beachryan said:
How much faith do we have in the US/Nato, hell even China having a clever plan to stop that happening?
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Tbh, I don't have so many faith in all of them. However, it's very hard to tell in this circumstances. For me, I will follow the news day by day because the situations could have changed in a way that we would never except especially China's tendency to Russia.
 
Zehner said:
At this point it is very obvious what they are trying to do, IMO. Russia sees democracies as weak because the leadership depends on the population which is quite moody and easy to manipulate in their eyes. So they publicly use phrases like WW3 and nukes to freak us out and increase the pressure on our political leaders who aren't that easy to intimidate.
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well yes I think everybody sees that ... the question is what do they do when that does not work

Do they climb down or not?
 
spiriticon said:
Blah blah blah nukes, blah blah blah nukes. feck off Putin.
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Didn’t they say a week ago that west can stick the sanctions up their ass as they don’t care? Now they say they’re ready to start ww3 because of them. :lol: Clowns
 
From this time on, I will notice China's actions to Russia since it's probably the main factors that can change situations in worse or better.
 
Sarni said:
Spooky stuff.
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I think you just have to accept we will never cross the line of invading Russia however we will never stop helping Ukraine and sanctioning the shit out of Russia. If that leads to the end of the World then so be it. Not worth losing a minute of sleep over their nuclear threat anymore.
 
UpWithRivers said:
Yes thanks I stand corrected. It was Sweden and Finland that Russia threatened. Its still a battle between Russian and Western democracy. Belarus cant elect a West leaning politician but they can protest and try and oust the current administration. Just like Czech did. Im not a historian or political expert but as I work in Czech I see the influence still of the Russian government and the battle between Russian and West democracies and the history of the influences of both sides. Russia cant all out attack these countries but they can try and destabilize them politically and vice versa in the case of Belarus.
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Sure, I agree with that.
 
Why isn't the blatant racism by Ukrainian forces at the border discussed more?

Doesn't fit the narrative that they're the good guys so we ignore it?
 
do.ob said:
It's probably not done centrally though?! Maybe just a lot of institutions that want to pause their cooperation with the Russian side or they think they'd rather spend the money on Ukraine directly.
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It’s possible that I myself am misinformed. Checking it myself, I can only see German DAAD pausing their relationships with Russia while many universities had denied doing anything like that. The issues of existing in Russian infosphere.
 
SalfordRed18 said:
Why isn't the blatant racism by Ukrainian forces at the border discussed more?

Doesn't fit the narrative that they're the good guys so we ignore it?
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Probably because, sadly, it’s less important than bombing of Kyiv & Kharkiv at this moment.
 
SalfordRed18 said:
Why isn't the blatant racism by Ukrainian forces at the border discussed more?

Doesn't fit the narrative that they're the good guys so we ignore it?
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I think part of it is because pretty much everyone on here is on the same side on that. We all think it inhumane, disgusting and that it has to stop. So while it's important you won't see many discussing it, because there is no discussion to be had. It has to end.
 
SalfordRed18 said:
Why isn't the blatant racism by Ukrainian forces at the border discussed more?

Doesn't fit the narrative that they're the good guys so we ignore it?
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It's pretty shocking. I hope Zelensky tears them a new one considering they're damaging everything he has built in the past few weeks.

But perspective, what is the point of discussing the Ukrainian far-right when as things are going, there is no longer going to be a Ukraine?
 
Smores said:
Demonisation and punishment of all Russians and saying tough shit those other Russians are causing war is exactly what leads there if left to grow yes. The japanese world over had to endure such racism for decades and muslims more recently with ISIS.

As i said neutral flag them all with the exception of sports with actual nation medals.

If we do end up at war with Russia I don't have enough faith in UK and US politics that we wouldn't start putting Russians in interment camps.
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Surely if the war spreads to UK/US, it would be fair, from a security perspective, to put all Russian nationals within that country into a camp. Do you really want a load of nationals from a country you're at war with wandering around freely?
 
SalfordRed18 said:
Why isn't the blatant racism by Ukrainian forces at the border discussed more?

Doesn't fit the narrative that they're the good guys so we ignore it?
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It's not just a Ukrainian issue either. The Danish government has famously wanted to send refugees to a refugee camp in... Rwanda. A journalist asked whether Ukrainian refugees would be send there too. Which of course was a very difficult question to answer for the minister.
 
alexthelion said:
Surely if the war spreads to UK/US, it would be fair, from a security perspective, to put all Russian nationals within that country into a camp. Do you really want a load of nationals from a country you're at war with wandering around freely?
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That's not a thing that should ever be done again. Let the security services try to figure out who might be spying, but a person's nationality can't be held against them in a free society.
 
Dans said:
Another interesting twitter thread:

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Nice insight but it’s outdated as of yesterday. Why Russia is losing the war on the ground would be a better title since Putin had already switched to carpet bombing.
 
gorky_utd said:
Probably threatening to start world war if sanctions are not lifted.
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Well it wont be a world war - it will still be Russia against everyone else.

If nukes are used its the end for all of us
 
Maagge said:
It's not just a Ukrainian issue either. The Danish government has famously wanted to send refugees to a refugee camp in... Rwanda. A journalist asked whether Ukrainian refugees would be send there too. Which of course was a very difficult question to answer for the minister.
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Surely they use the same policy, it’s fairly obvious white refugees will get treated differently.

Racism exists and is profound especially in Eastern Europe.

Regardless as a person of colour, there’s probably bigger issues at the minute, racism will take another 100 years to fix, let’s concentrate on getting there.
 
The west have been feeding of Russia for years, feeding with our greed for more.

Even at this late stage we can’t turn off the gas taps.
 
SalfordRed18 said:
Why isn't the blatant racism by Ukrainian forces at the border discussed more?

Doesn't fit the narrative that they're the good guys so we ignore it?
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It’s disgusting and you have people in this thread making excuse after excuse for it.
 
UpWithRivers said:
Russia has said for years that it wont allow Ukraine to become a Nato country. Thats the whole reason for the war. If it remained a neutral state then this war would not have happened. On one hand its a democracy and they should damn well be able to choose if they want to be Nato or not. On the other hand if they just let it be and remained a neutral state they wouldn't have been flattened by Russia. They are damned if they do and damned if they dont. They cant and will not back down now. The endgame is Russia neutralizes Ukraine. They make it impossible for it to become Nato and at the same time sets up president that any of the other countries cant as well - Latvia, Estonia, Finland and yes even Belarus (they could elect a West leaning politician in the future). They have already achieved this objective no matter what happens in Ukraine. I cannot see any of those countries joining Nato. If they do they risk the same treatment as Ukraine. Maybe Finland would get away with it.

The Wests endgame is to demonize Russia. This will make it so all these countries dont lean towards Russia like Belarus has. Russia could even be influencing countries like Czech, Poland etc and trying to elect pro Russian governments. Its the game that has been played since the second world war. Also they have legitimate reasons to fk up the Russian economy and turn the world against them.
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Can we please stop peddling this Russian propaganda?

Putin made it very clear just before the invasion (and after) what it was about, he doesn't believe Ukraine should be a separate, democratic country.
 
Hound Dog said:
What about the radiation? I have never seriously considered this, but wouldn't detonating ie 1000 nukes effectively end life via radiation? The same way as the initial asteroid strike killed some of the dinosaurs and the consequences of the ensuing cloud killed what was left of them?
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As far as I know, no, with the current weapons, there will likely be a billion or two dying from radiation but people in shelters will survive. As will those in the Southern Hemisphere. Most of the radiation will be gone in 2 weeks (to non lethal degree).

In theory, it should be possible to modify the current weapons, by adding cobalt which will then make the radiation stay for years and in theory kill all the people, though life might survive. As far as I know, no country has ever made such a bomb for obvious reasons.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Putin is the type that would sacrifice a city of two and then retaliate by sending them into oblivion.

If Ukraine used them the counter strike would end them as a nation after 5 minutes. Using them first will free Putin to strike back..
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Ukraine had 4000 of them.
 
Jerch said:
What is the endgame for west with these sanctions and sending arms to Ukraine? While i supported it in the beginning it is starting to look very dangerous.

We are just cornering Putin more and more. No matter how west tries to paint that Russia failed so far noone is denying that Russia went easy on Ukraine in the first days.
Western leaders and especially people from USA acknowledged that and even stated that violence from Russia is likely to increase which we already seeing little by little but we are definitely far away from extreme measures.
People in Russian are not gonna overthrow Putin because he will take extreme actions before that happens.

The only way for me this stops escalating is to sit down with Russia and negotiate some kind of the deal.
West and Russia should really look into making Ukraine a buffer state, set up the government that is agreed with both sides and be watched on from both sides. Basically make Ukraine into Switzerland between Russia and Nato. But I'm afraid that west is never gonna back down to that point and it could be disastrous. Especially with the public support people on the west are giving to western states that option is looking less and less likely.

Not going through the negotiation route leads could result in my opinion in:
-Russia takes over Ukraine easily in next days/weeks but west doesn't acknowledge and it leads in more tension between west and Russia especially because of the impacts of the sanctions on Russian people (not likely that Russia will take over easily anyway)
-Ukraine keep resistance strong and impact of sanctions from the west and Ukraine getting better and better equiped leads Putin to take more and more extreme measures to end this as fast as possible (the most likely scenario)

In both cases tensions will increase and in both cases we will keep cornering Putin and it's very dangerous proposition which could lead into global catastrophy.

And sadly I really can't see any other outcome.
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You’re leaving a few important bits out.

- Ukraine is a sovereign, democratic nation whose own citizens get to decide their future (not “ the west” or Vladimir Putin)

- Putin can’t withstand any of the current sanctions for long (and that’s not even factoring in things that the US is about to do to him)

- Any looming military takeover of Ukraine will be met with a bloody and protracted insurgency, which would be funded by highly sophisticated weapons from the outside, and executed by a population with a warrior mentality and an intense desire to succeed - in stark contrast to Russian soldiers who have little interest in being there In the first place.

So instead of capitulating to Vladimir Putin by rewarding his invasion with concessions he wanted before he invaded, a likelier scenario is he will eventually gain control of larger cities, attempt to emplace a puppet leader, fight a violent insurgency, with sanctions that will annihilate him from within, to where he will quickly realize that whatever gains he made in Ukraine will be meaningless if he can’t hold onto power in Russia.
 
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