Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Yes thanks I stand corrected. It was Sweden and Finland that Russia threatened. Its still a battle between Russian and Western democracy. Belarus cant elect a West leaning politician but they can protest and try and oust the current administration. Just like Czech did. Im not a historian or political expert but as I work in Czech I see the influence still of the Russian government and the battle between Russian and West democracies and the history of the influences of both sides. Russia cant all out attack these countries but they can try and destabilize them politically and vice versa in the case of Belarus.
Tbf didn't Ukraine oust a president because the people wanted to join the EU? Not long after that Russia got involved.
 
So were the old ones tbf. Chenobyl took monumental mismanagement for it to happen, and Fukushima a natural disaster.

Yeah, in the case of Fukushima it's boiling water reactors, it needs the water for coolant but the reaction does not cease if the water goes away. Why they then put the backup generators for the pumps in a basement when the site is next to the coast is beyond me! But that's not the case with the Ukrainian reactors, they're of a different design.

Nuclear gets unfair bad press in my eyes, things are pedalled by people who have no clue what they are on about just "Nuclear = bad"
 
Last edited:
yes ... being pragmatic as well the river does form a somewhat clear line north to south... that said keeping control of a population as large as ukraines is going to be difficult.... i would suspect that as part of any settlement there would be an allowance that people had a period of time to move either west / east of the river

the coast presents a very difficult logistical route to hold as i would presume they would just want a strip of coast line in order to claim any oil and gas reserves off shore... logically it may be easier to not take the land but demand the rights in part of a settlement
Best case scenario for Russia - yes, but very difficult to negotiate.

For sure controlling that vast territory will be costly and would require constant military presence.

Depends on when it does end as well, but I would imagine crossing the imaginary border would be pretty much controlled for a long time and there will be plenty of migration from East to the West.
 
Blimey i know we had someone saying it's fair game to remove aid to innocents yesterday but even then i didn't expect we'd have people supporting internment camps for civilians.

Quite scary.
He is joking. I think... :nervous:
 
Any thoughts on the below? Seems convincing, but no idea how realistic it is. People seem to think Russia might just seize and nationalise planes though. Surely most modern plans can't just be seized though due to the electronics?




In personal news, Ryanair just cancelled our flights to Lviv on 15th April. Thought they'd drag it out longer than that!
 
It’s comedy, we have only said that yesterday that this would happen. It has taken only one day to prove us correct. :lol: We have to respond swiftly now by defending Ukraine.
Exactly mate. The fecker is taking a piss.
 
You’re leaving a few important bits out.

- Ukraine is a sovereign, democratic nation whose own citizens get to decide their future (not “ the west” or Vladimir Putin)

- Putin can’t withstand any of the current sanctions for long (and that’s not even factoring in things that the US is about to do to him)

- Any looming military takeover of Ukraine will be met with a bloody and protracted insurgency, which would be funded by highly sophisticated weapons from the outside, and executed by a population with a warrior mentality and an intense desire to succeed - in stark contrast to Russian soldiers who have little interest in being there In the first place.

So instead of capitulating to Vladimir Putin by rewarding his invasion with concessions he wanted before he invaded, a likelier scenario is he will eventually gain control of larger cities, attempt to emplace a puppet leader, fight a violent insurgency, with sanctions that will annihilate him from within, to where he will quickly realize that whatever gains he made in Ukraine will be meaningless if he can’t hold onto power in Russia.
In shiny rosie world I would agree with you but sadly I think we are much closer to worldwide conflict which could be disastrous.

Just a few counter arguments.
1. Ukraine is sovereign democtratic conuntry but we are pushing that because it fits us because that mean they are leaning to west - EU and Nato. We can't overlook their geopolitical influence. They can say we want in EU in Nato but we also could say no we can't do that because it's not in out interest. What we can do to stabilize situation is to work on solution how based on their geopolitical status we can fit their best interest which will align with best interest of the west and Russia. Just imagine if USA would give the same talk about democracy and free will if Cuba decided to military aling with Russia.

2. I don't think that a fact that Putin can't withstand sanctions for long is a good thing. He won't backed down so only other way possible it's global crisis if things start to go to bad for him.

3. Third point is also terrible because it will just meant more people suffering and larger and larger destruction. Russia will suffer but Ukraine will suffer twice as much. And this couldn't be in the best interest of Ukraine.

Going through the thread I saw this video bellow posted before but never had watched it untill now and now when I watched it I can't believe how many points he made I agree on and how well he predicted the way things will go.
If I have to take away one point from that video is that Ukraine is security problem to Russia and no economic problems will prevail to not deal with their security interest.

 
Who says the southern hemisphere will be spared from attacks, though? Australia, the American bases in the pacific ocean, are all obvious targets. That's before we even consider if other countries in South America, Africa and/or Asia will get involved some way or some how.

Also, radiation in the air is one thing, but the ensuing ice age as well as crops and drinking water severly polluted all over the world, is a different aspect that will have lethal consequences for years, if not decades.

…..and anarchy, conflict as countries battle to become next superpower…….
 
Just imagine if USA would give the same talk about democracy and free will if Cuba decided to military aling with Russia.

They are, they recognised Crimea as Russia's in 2014, they align on pretty much everything. Putin wiped off 90% of the debt owed to them by Cuba. So your argument doesn't work. No one in the West is suggesting an invasion of Cuba.
 
Probably because whilst it is important, and unacceptable, it’s not as important as what’s going on in the war zone? That’s not ignoring it.

Women and children being murdered with missiles and other war crimes being reported. Putin threatening a world war.

It’s not hard to understand why.
But those women and children not being allowed through are surely going to die too no?
 
Why isn't the blatant racism by Ukrainian forces at the border discussed more?

Doesn't fit the narrative that they're the good guys so we ignore it?
It is being discussed, have seen a lot of people reference it. Sadly as some of our resident Russians/Ukrainians on here were saying, racism is a huge problem for them and it’s sad to see.
 
I won't be wrong to say this is the biggest global crisis since I was born (1989)? Including basically the threat to the very existence of the world.
 
But those women and children not being allowed through are surely going to die too no?

They will be let through I expect in time. The border crossings thankfully don't seem to be under direct threat right now. If that changes I am sure changes will be made.
 
https://www.ndtv.com/indians-abroad...ed-on-trains-2799299#pfrom=home-ndtv_bigstory

More and more Indian students are simply not being allowed to leave Kharkiv. Getting kicked off the trains or simply not allowed to get onto trains, because they are not Ukrainian.
Indian embassy desperately asks people to leave on foot to escape from shelling.

Already one Indian student dead in the shelling as he went out of his bunker to get food.
 
But those women and children not being allowed through are surely going to die too no?
Nobody waiting at the Polish, Hungarian or Slovakian borders right now is in danger of the war. There's literally no fighting within 200kms at worst. Even most of the Moldovan border points are a similar distance from any fighting.
 
They are, they recognised Crimea as Russia's in 2014, they align on pretty much everything. Putin wiped off 90% of the debt owed to them by Cuba. So your argument doesn't work. No one in the West is suggesting an invasion of Cuba.
You are talking about political alignment and I'm talking about military alignment.
 
Last edited:
Who says the southern hemisphere will be spared from attacks, though? Australia, the American bases in the pacific ocean, are all obvious targets. That's before we even consider if other countries in South America, Africa and/or Asia will get involved some way or some how.

Also, radiation in the air is one thing, but the ensuing ice age as well as crops and drinking water severly polluted all over the world, is a different aspect that will have lethal consequences for years, if not decades.

As far as I know, the fallout will suck, obviously, but it won't end human life or anything. As you say, the nuclear winter is the big problem. It's not quite like an ice age (it's not like we're getting rid of all those greenhouse gases we put up there), but we could easily kill off most life on Earth within a few years. And if a nuclear winter does happen in the first place, it will be because civilization has collapsed to such a degree that we can't put out all the fires, so at that point we're even more fecked.
 
Surely its time for the Indian Government to step in and arrange a deal with Ukraine/Poland to safely bring their people home?

Should have been done a month ago when the UK and US were advising people to leave the country
 
I won't be wrong to say this is the biggest global crisis since I was born (1989)? Including basically the threat to the very existence of the world.

As someone born in 1990, I think you're right, although there were several crisises already on a global scale. 9/11 was really scary and had huge global impact, 09 financial crisis let many people believe that we're on the verge of certain anarchy within months, then COVID-19 which was the biggest crisis [so far] imo. And now Ukraine-Russia conflict developing very fast into a global crisis. I'm not so sure it has reached COVID-19 levels in terms of actual impact, but it certainly has the potential to dwarf the pandemic.
 
They are, they recognised Crimea as Russia's in 2014, they align on pretty much everything. Putin wiped off 90% of the debt owed to them by Cuba. So your argument doesn't work. No one in the West is suggesting an invasion of Cuba.
USA promised to never invade Cuba to de eacalate cuban missile crisis as well as remove nukes from Turkey.

Like it or not, Ukraine and/or the West will have to give something in order for Putin to save face and have a way out. Wnough to allow him to de escalate but not enough to make him think it is worth trying this again
 
But those women and children not being allowed through are surely going to die too no?

They’ll be allowed though I’m sure however they aren’t being prioritised so it might take longer.

Ultimately the people getting shelled to death are going to make the news currently and that kind of answers your question about coverage surely?
 
Surely its time for the Indian Government to step in and arrange a deal with Ukraine/Poland to safely bring their people home?

Should have been done a month ago when the UK and US were advising people to leave the country

Yeah I’m not sure what is going on with India. Has Modi even spoke yet? Also the strange voting and lack of action.

Pretty poor stuff
 
As far as I know, the fallout will suck, obviously, but it won't end human life or anything. As you say, the nuclear winter is the big problem. It's not quite like an ice age (it's not like we're getting rid of all those greenhouse gases we put up there), but we could easily kill off most life on Earth within a few years. And if a nuclear winter does happen in the first place, it will be because civilization has collapsed to such a degree that we can't put out all the fires, so at that point we're even more fecked.

I mean. These two sentences are quite contradictory? :nervous:

As one said in this thread before, it won't eradicate our species, but it would end humanity. As in the (relatively) few survivors will have to start from (relative) scratch. With everything.
 
USA promised to never invade Cuba to de eacalate cuban missile crisis as well as remove nukes from Turkey.

Like it or not, Ukraine and/or the West will have to give something in order for Putin to save face and have a way out. Wnough to allow him to de escalate but not enough to make him think it is worth trying this again
This is not possible. The guy is a nutter and is overplaying his nukes card. Letting Putin save his face impliesletting him bomb the hell out of Ukraine, erase their national identity and install his puppet. Not happening. Every time his mouthpiece mentions nukes, more sanctions are being considered.
 
Surely its time for the Indian Government to step in and arrange a deal with Ukraine/Poland to safely bring their people home?

Should have been done a month ago when the UK and US were advising people to leave the country
Poland is already helping. I am not sure how much of a deal we can make with Ukraine though.
 
I mean. These two sentences are quite contradictory? :nervous:

As one said in this thread before, it won't eradicate our species, but it would end humanity. As in the (relatively) few survivors will have to start from (relative) scratch. With everything.
Humanity - no. But civilization - yes.
 
In shiny rosie world I would agree with you but sadly I think we are much closer to worldwide conflict which could be disastrous.

Just a few counter arguments.
1. Ukraine is sovereign democtratic conuntry but we are pushing that because it fits us because that mean they are leaning to west - EU and Nato. We can't overlook their geopolitical influence. They can say we want in EU in Nato but we also could say no we can't do that because it's not in out interest. What we can do to stabilize situation is to work on solution how based on their geopolitical status we can fit their best interest which will align with best interest of the west and Russia. Just imagine if USA would give the same talk about democracy and free will if Cuba decided to military aling with Russia.

2. I don't think that a fact that Putin can't withstand sanctions for long is a good thing. He won't backed down so only other way possible it's global crisis if things start to go to bad for him.

3. Third point is also terrible because it will just meant more people suffering and larger and larger destruction. Russia will suffer but Ukraine will suffer twice as much. And this couldn't be in the best interest of Ukraine.

Going through the thread I saw this video bellow posted before but never had watched it untill now and now when I watched it I can't believe how many points he made I agree on and how well he predicted the way things will go.
If I have to take away one point from that video is that Ukraine is security problem to Russia and no economic problems will prevail to not deal with their security interest.



Mearshimer is just making it up as he goes along, which is pretty evident when the interviewer presses him in the New Yorker article that just published. He more or less admits in the article that he has no clue what is going to happen.

Ultimately, this is for the Ukrainians to decide themselves. No one is forcing them to join NATO or the EU, which means that Russia is the only aggressor in this entire debacle. Putin's "Give me what I want or i will invade and kill you" approach should make this pretty obvious by now.

As for your above point 3 - that's precisely the intent of sanctions, to inflict suffering without actually fighting.
 
USA promised to never invade Cuba to de eacalate cuban missile crisis as well as remove nukes from Turkey.

Like it or not, Ukraine and/or the West will have to give something in order for Putin to save face and have a way out. Wnough to allow him to de escalate but not enough to make him think it is worth trying this again

Yes. The "give" will be a negotiated settlement for Russia to leave all of Ukraine in exchange for sanctions being lifted.
 
Surely its time for the Indian Government to step in and arrange a deal with Ukraine/Poland to safely bring their people home?

Should have been done a month ago when the UK and US were advising people to leave the country
It's nigh-on impossible now. Roads in Ukraine are absolutely terrible by our standards (at best single-carriage way with decent tarmac, at worst completely pot holed so you can't drive more 20mph for long stretches) and many key roads across the country are either blocked, damaged, occupied or dotted with roadblocks. Journeys that take 2 hours routinely are taking 12+ hours. There are still coaches doing the long journeys east-to-west and returning, but other busses are just being left in the West as people aren't going back to dangerous areas. I imagine most people with private vehicles have just driven out of the country. The train network is pretty comprehensive in Ukraine, but the amount of rolling stock is quite low for a country of that size. Getting in and out of Kyiv is fine, but most other cross country journeys are only normally scheduled daily or a couple of times a day. You might think, well, can't Poland or other countries send more trains in to evacuate people? No, because Ukraine uses the Soviet train gauge. If you take an international train from Ukraine to Poland or vice-versa, you have to change trains in Przemysl just inside Poland.

People who have already got to the borders will be safe enough, but travelling across the country is very difficult due to the disruption and capacity massively outstripping demand. Unsurprisingly, they will still be having to prioritise getting women and children out. They don't even have the capacity to do that. The scenes of train stations in Kyiv and Kharkiv are utter madness right now. The Ukrainian rail network cannot even get trains in to part of the country with humanitarian aid and taking civilians away as occupying forces are not allowing them.

If countries wants their citizens safe, they need to be pressuring Russia to end the fighting. Ukraine's not responsible for evacuating foreign nationals at the expense of their own citizens when they are being invaded.
 
Last edited:
This is not possible. The guy is a nutter and is overplaying his nukes card. Letting Putin save his face impliesletting him bomb the hell out of Ukraine, erase their national identity and install his puppet. Not happening. Every time his mouthpiece mentions nukes, more sanctions are being considered.
That part is exactly what is happening right now.