Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Cardboard elk said:
I think there will be sanctions on Chinese banks that do business with russian banks through CIPS if that happens. Still, a sign of where China is headed in this conflict? They have a lot to loose economically if they start taking sides.
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China are asking for peace via negotiations.
 
huyn said:
This tweet is wrong. Major russian banks are already on CIPS, and even if they just joined it wouldn't improve their ability to trade with the rest of the world in any way. We know they're still going to do business with China and a few other countries anyway, but that's obviously far from enough to prevent their economy from tanking.
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Tweet is by some random guy with no underlying link to any article backing up the headline. Could very well be a bot.
 
Smores said:
Well it is true it's just not news. A decent amount of Russian banks have been on CIPS for sometime now.

The volumes are a bit irrelevant they'll grow quickly if needed but the actual blocker is CIPS is still dependent on SWIFT last i checked.
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I actually spoke to a someone in Russian banking yesterday and they're completely hobbled by the Swift ban. It's freezing the whole system cos there's effectively no foreign currency left and hefty restrictions on withdrawals enacted. Brokers and other financials don't have access to capital or counterparties and they're dealing with very worried clients.
 
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RedTiger said:
You forgot the resource rich African countries who do most of their trade with China, if China can strong arm them into their system then it might really create a parallel system to Swift.
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You just can't trade internationally without SWIFT, China has no reason to kill their own economy by leaving SWIFT since they trade with everyone in the world. You just can't replace SWIFT without getting over 200 countries to agree to it.
 
the_cliff said:
I think since the use of dollar as a weapon for Trump against China it has certainly crossed his mind (Xi). Although China has been the biggest winner in this current economy, people do seem to forget that he also has his eyes on Taiwan and will not want the sanctions to effect them as much as well.
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What do you mean? This sentence is very unclear.
 
Jippy said:
I actually spoke to a someone in Russian banking yesterday and they're completely hobbled by the Swift ban. It's freezing the whole system cos there's effectively no foreign currency left and hefty restrictions on withdrawals enacted. Brokers and other financials don't have access to capital or counterparts and they're dealing with very worried clients.
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Yeah that's the key thing, access to counterparties. The actual SWIFT messaging isn't really the significant issue it's the various mechanisms almost embedded alongside it that aren't so easy to replicate.

A lot of this is the other banking sanctions taking their effect, they're still significantly more of an impact.
 
Smores said:
Yeah that's the key thing, access to counterparties. The actual SWIFT messaging isn't really the significant issue it's the various mechanisms almost embedded alongside it that aren't so easy to replicate.

A lot of this is the other banking sanctions taking their effect, they're still significantly more of an impact.
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Yep just seen the counterparties autocorrect by my phone. Foreign banks won't deal with the non-sanctioned ones either, the person said, so they're fully expecting to lose ctwo thirds of their assets by the time this is through.
 
Anyone else following Rob Lee on twitter astounded by sheer amount of russian machinery left behind? They're basically arming ukrainians themselves.
 
Jippy said:
It's not a dramatic scenario, it's a preposterous one. China and most Opec states hold tens of billions in dollar assets and the US consumes c2.5, more oil than China and Russia combined.

Oil is also one asset of loads out there, unless gold, palladium, soy beans etc all switch to yuan.
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Which is again mostly produced by the BRICS and OPEC countries.

70% of Palladium is mined by SA and Russia. China, Russia and India are the top three producers of Aluminum, with China way ahead of the pack. China and Russia are the biggest producers of gold worldwide, etc.


UncleBob said:
First of all, China are less than happy about the current situation and they want it solved, peacefully, just the consequences for the global energy market is of annoyance to China as it means increased costs. Secondly, prior to all of this Ukraine was a bigger trade partner to China than Russia, and China depend on a well functioning global market. Tanking the global market, sure as shit isn't something they're keen on and there's nothing at all right now that suggests Russia is even going to compensate for the increased costs in the energy market.
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China won't show their true colors in the current situation and IMO will play double game. One of the biggest problem in China is energy as mentioned, and Russia can give them resource at discounted price, so naturally they will take this opportunity. They already concluded a new 30 years deal with Russia for the supply of natural gas and building a new infrastructure.

Russia/China can also negotiate a fix price it's not like they will be window shopping in this scenario..
 
Enigma_87 said:
China won't show their true colors in the current situation and IMO will play double game. One of the biggest problem in China is energy as mentioned, and Russia can give them resource at discounted price, so naturally they will take this opportunity. They already concluded a new 30 years deal with Russia for the supply of natural gas and building a new infrastructure.

Russia/China can also negotiate a fix price it's not like they will be window shopping in this scenario..
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I love how the double game is that they'll shoot themselves in the face with a shotgun. Brilliant
 
Water Melon said:
This is not possible. The guy is a nutter and is overplaying his nukes card. Letting Putin save his face impliesletting him bomb the hell out of Ukraine, erase their national identity and install his puppet. Not happening. Every time his mouthpiece mentions nukes, more sanctions are being considered.
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What isn’t possible?
 
All that clip needs is the Curb your Enthusiasm music to kick in as he realizes he can't get in
 
Smores said:
Why would you need to rebuild your entire systems, CIPS follows the same ISO standards so the integration isn't that different. Obviously many legacy systems are a bit outdated in regards to currency but I've been involved in multi-currency and FX adaptations and it's certainly not even a fraction of that cost.
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Swapping out the institutional SWIFT kit for CIFS isn't really the problem, although that's in the £x millions alone. It's every other system expecting things in USD that would then come through in Yen. They'd need to figure out how to manage stuff on the general ledger before and after the switch and then everything that relies on the ledger, which is most things. All the treasury management stuff etc. And that's before you get into stuff like fraud systems.
 
Raoul said:
This also shows that Kherson is still being contested given that the business the Russian guy appears to be fighting on Ushakova, which is one of the main drags in Kherson.
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With doors that sturdy it's no surprise that they're struggling.
 
sun_tzu said:
well yes I think everybody sees that ... the question is what do they do when that does not work

Do they climb down or not?
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Right now it seems that Putin chose a soft appproach initially to not cause too much resistance by the Ukrainian and Russian people as well as the NATO. So while the attack is obviously reckless and disgusting, he still seems to consider the consequences of his actions and how they influence Russia's future. It would be a pretty big step from that to "you know what, screw it, I'll just blow up the whole world including Russia".
 
World Taekwondo federation has REVOKED Putin’s black belt.
 
Simbo said:
Seeing various differening reports of what's going on here so I wouldn't bother believing anything yet.

Some saying that there is a Ukranian missile boat patrolling off Odessa...

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Ukraine still has navy?
 
According to the FT:

"Russian World Bank adviser quits in protest at invasion of Ukraine"

His name is Boris Lvin.

Perhaps it's starting - the backlash so desperately needed.
 
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