Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I'm assuming your family is in Ukraine? Blessings to them if that's the case, hope everything is okay with them. As for the sports stuff, don't bother wasting your energy with that crap mate.
It's actually relatively further away and nowhere near as bad as it is for the people with families and close ones in Ukraine.

Still, I sympathise with the plight of the Ukrainian people, it really feels heart-wrenching to see them suffer and not do anything about it because the maniac might get even more offended.

It was the nuclear plant threat that brought up stories about Chernobyl before I was born and how it affected people across the whole of Europe.
 
That guarantees a full retaliation from Russia though. It takes longer to shoot Russian ICBMs (and we don't know where many of them are) deep in Russia, then for Russia to throw them. And as you said, there are the Russian subs, who then would retaliate.

So, if Russia nukes Ukraine, I think there are two options: a) NATO does nothing; b) NATO does massive non-nuke air strikes in Russian troops in Ukraine.

If Russia nukes some NATO country, I guess we have 3 options: a) NATO does nothing; b) NATO does tit for tat to de-escalate the situation; c) NATO fully retaliates which means Russia fully counter-retaliates.

If Russia nukes US, then I think we expect a full immediate retaliation, in fact before the ICBM/SLBM hits the US, the US has thrown hundreds of nukes towards Russia with thousands being prepared.
Russia nuking a NATO member is scary enough , but if they nuke the US, might as well kiss your ass goodbye.
If Russia nukes Ukraine, I can see a bit of A and B , they will done nothing straightaway, take about it for a while them do something along the lines of B
 
CNN just saying that the UN has confirmed that Russia has used cluster bombs.
To quote the great Hamilton, this feels very much like "I'll send a fully armed batallion to remind you of my love" from MadVlad.
 
He has not done any video outside for a few days, I think.
He did a press conference yesterday with journalists yesterday. If those journalists, who were clearly identifiable, were known to no longer be near Kyiv, people would have shouted about it by now.

Many of the MPs in Ukraine even sat yesterday to pass motions.
 
No, it's pretty much certain there will be no nukes. I was concerned about it a few days ago but even since it has become very, very clear there is literally zero chance of nuclear war.
I think it is highly unlikely that it will happen. Putin wants to win this, not have world destroyed.

It massively sucks for Ukraine and Ukrainians, but I think that NATO/US has been spot on so far. No reckless decisions that escalate the situation towards uncharted territory, heavily sanctioning the Russian economy, and sending a shitload of weapons to Ukraine.
 
Someone please please find him a retirement community. It was either this guy or trump. Damn.

There needs to be a new law in place 69 is the oldest age at which you can still become president, I mean if you get two terms you will still be an old fart at the end with 77 but the candidate's age in the last election was abysmal 74, 77 and 78? For the love of god, just retire.
 
And what is that? Propaganda works! Everywhere. Just look at how far US Republicans have come during just one term for Trump. In Europe you can see his influence as well, most notably in Brexit. And those are free democracies, where he started out with the mainstream against him and without the tools of a dictatorship available to him.
Now imagine what it must be like in Russia, where he has had a relatively free hand for decades.
Oh I don’t deny that propaganda works in politics very much so, and I know it first hand trust me. However, when they support pure evil like killing people you can no longer hide behind the propaganda excuse and have to bear the responsibility.
 
Modern deployed physics packages are thermonuclear fission bombs. They use regular fission cores which are boosted by tritium gas, in a process that I won't describe here. That is very different from a hydrogen (fusion) device which although can reach greater yield is impractical and requires certain conditions which are hard to maintain.

Both the US B61 and the UK WE177 air launched gravity bombs are Hydrogen Thermonuclear variety.
The WE177 are no longer used by the RAF.
But the B61 is still in use and is also used by Germany on their Tornado nuclear capable bombers.
 
There needs to be a new law in place 69 is the oldest age at which you can still become president, I mean if you get two terms you will still be an old fart at the end with 77 but the candidate's age in the last election was abysmal 74, 77 and 78? For the love of god, just retire.
There should not be such a law. Plenty of incredibly smart people who are much older (the likes of Warren Buffet or Leonard Susskind for example).

People just should not vote for the likes of Biden. At the same time, it is clear that Biden is just a puppet, and so far so good.
 
I think it is highly unlikely that it will happen. Putin wants to win this, not have world destroyed.

It massively sucks for Ukraine and Ukrainians, but I think that NATO/US has been spot on so far. No reckless decisions that escalate the situation towards uncharted territory, heavily sanctioning the Russian economy, and sending a shitload of weapons to Ukraine.

I'm honestly a bit surprised the DEFCON level didn't get increased in response. It's kind of like dealing with a child though, if you give them attention when they misbehave you just encourage them to do it more.
 
Not something I am an expert in. But the only way I see this working is if you had a number of subs scattered across the north coast of Russia that simultaneously launched from right off the coast, they might just be able to hit the launch sites before the info could work its way through the chain of command to authorise, back to the launchers and for them to get the weapons away.

It doesn't solve the sub problem though, and it doesn't solve the mobile launchers.
In theory their own SSBNs you target with attack subs and other anti-sub capabilities, which at all times are looking for Russian subs and trailing them when found. The mobile launchers you target with stealth bombers if those are able to survive over Russian airspace and look for targets as they're identified by any means. Again, entirely theoretical and obviously best case.
 
Could be a Ukrainian tactic to seed doubts within the Russian security services. If it's real that elements within the FSB helped...then that's interesting to say the least.


"Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people." - POTUS 2022 :lol::lol::lol:



It was a pretty good speech. Although not entire unexpected that internet trolls will focus on the verbal gaff.
 
There needs to be a new law in place 69 is the oldest age at which you can still become president, I mean if you get two terms you will still be an old fart at the end with 77 but the candidate's age in the last election was abysmal 74, 77 and 78? For the love of god, just retire.
It's stuff like this that helps the Republican crazies because there definitely is a grain of truth in the fact the Democrats are planning for Harris to succeed him.

That by no means it's a bad thing but the lack of transparency is what further fuels conspiracy theorists and lends credibility to their ideas.
 
I'm honestly a bit surprised the DEFCON level didn't get increased in response. It's kind of like dealing with a child though, if you give them attention when they misbehave you just encourage them to do it more.

That's exactly what the guy I was driving to the border yesterday said. You have to approach it as if you were approaching a 13-year old bully, at the same time knowing that he is sick enough to stab you.
 
Russia has a massive army and, unless they are faced with a larger NATO led army, they will eventually take major cities in Ukraine. But it certainly may be true that it hasn't been as easy as they anticipated at the start (or as easy as the west thought).

That being said, this will go the way of the Soviets and US in Afghanistan and the US in Iraq. They might take over but they'll have hell to pay, the locals will hate them and eventually they will want to leave because it will be too much of a nuisance to retain.

Bang on. And especially as it becomes progressively more difficult to defend and Putin is no longer in power.
 
Russia has a massive army and, unless they are faced with a larger NATO led army, they will eventually take major cities in Ukraine. But it certainly may be true that it hasn't been as easy as they anticipated at the start (or as easy as the west thought).

That being said, this will go the way of the Soviets and US in Afghanistan and the US in Iraq. They might take over but they'll have hell to pay, the locals will hate them and eventually they will want to leave because it will be too much of a nuisance to retain.

The US still has thousands of troops in Iraq in the present, at the invitation of the democratically elected Iraqi government. But that's probably a better topic for the thread next door.
 
I'm honestly a bit surprised the DEFCON level didn't get increased in response. It's kind of like dealing with a child though, if you give them attention when they misbehave you just encourage them to do it more.
They are very careful about the messages they are sending - intentionally or not - about escalation. The message all along is NATO is not going to escalate this situation. It's why Biden wisely cancelled the ballistic missile test. I believe US forces are currently at Defcon 4, while Defcon 3 means the US Airforce is ready to mobilise in 15 mins. That would be quite an escalation for a jittery paranoid Russian president.

(Thank God Trump is not President).
 
They are very careful about the messages they are sending - intentionally or not - about escalation. The message all along is NATO is not going to escalate this situation. It's why Biden wisely cancelled the ballistic missile test. I believe US forces are currently at Defcon 4, while Defcon 3 means the US Airforce is ready to mobilise in 15 mins. That would be quite an escalation.

Aha, I always forget that it's at 4 and for some reason always assume it is at 5! That makes a bit more sense.
 
They are very careful about the messages they are sending - intentionally or not - about escalation. The message all along is NATO is not going to escalate this situation. It's why Biden wisely cancelled the ballistic missile test. I believe US forces are currently at Defcon 4, while Defcon 3 means the US Airforce is ready to mobilise in 15 mins. That would be quite an escalation for a jittery paranoid Russian president.

(Thank God Trump is not President).
This give the DEFCON level worldwide.
US is at 4
Europe is 2 !!

https://www.defconlevel.com/
 
There should not be such a law. Plenty of incredibly smart people who are much older (the likes of Warren Buffet or Leonard Susskind for example).
Buffet works for himself though, and the worst thing Susskind can do is misplace a mathematical symbol in a physics paper. I have come around to the view that our elected representatives should be far better trained and prepared for public administration, and part of that should include a mandatory retirement age. Bit like term limits in some countries.

Too many of them, at least here in the UK, seem to know far too little about all kinds of crucial stuff. Boris Johnson, for example, with his classics degree and no management experience of anything, is just badly out of his depth (and he's relatively young). Can't be a coincidence that Merkel was so good when you consider her very impressive academic background.
 
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It really is horrifying to be seeing this in the 21st century in the center of European continent.
its horrific anywhere but against ISIS there is at least some semblance of a reason albeit not explicit.

In a peaceful country its so desperately sad and scary
 
I'm honestly a bit surprised the DEFCON level didn't get increased in response. It's kind of like dealing with a child though, if you give them attention when they misbehave you just encourage them to do it more.
The probably did, just that there is no reason to do it in public.

The US also has much higher defcon forces to start with. They have at least 4 subs always in water, but probably many more. And B2s can fly over Moscow without Russians knowing it.
 
Personally, i think they have been trying to bait NATO in to fight, and not just for this reason. There have been numerous examples

Why do you think so? In my impression they clearly avoid a direct confrontation with NATO. Think there's very little speaking for that.

Sure he wants to avoid nukes because he wants. To live as much as anyone else but just like Ukraine, does he believe the world is ready to end itself over a different non nuclear nation even iff they're NATO? If not, there's little stopping him from doing to them what he's doing to Ukraine and cry 'nukes' if there's retaliation or worse still, actually use a small one to show he means business. My point is, NATO or not, is Latvia really worth ending the world for to the US just because they're NATO?

I think the key thing right here is preparation. Putin clearly exploited Europe's military weakness and seized the moment for his attack. If we just continue like that, it's very dangerous and I wouldn't put it past him to do the same to Latvia, e. g. But if the West is prepared to defend Latvia, it's an entirely different matter. It's essentially a Mexican standoff. You can't allow him to take one out without catching a bullet himself. @Raoul said something similar by arguing it would be best if MAD would be automated. Putin is playing the opponent so it is important that it is clear which actions lead to which reactions. Make it so that pressing the red button means he's firing one on himself. Make it calculatable and don't give him room to maneuver in.

That being said, the whole situation is (logically) very hysterical right now. For Putin, Kyev is just another Aleppo or Grozny. He launched his attack talking about "unseen consequences" for anybody who would intervene and we did intervene not only by the most severe sanctions a major country has seen in modern days but also by directly and openly supplying weaponry and intelligence to Ukraine, contributing majorly to the death of thousands of Russian soldiers and probably billions of military equipment - something which in combination at least seems possible to end Putin's reign. And Russia accepted it teeth grindingly, only signaling us to not go too far. I think it's a very long stretch from going from there to "you know what, let's invade Latvia and see what the NATO does".

Think the most important part is that nowt hat NATO has finally woken up to the threat, we won't allow ourselves to be lulled in again and remain vigilant while Putin's autocracy implodes gradually. Our strength is that we are econimically far ahead of him. And if we drag this out and continue to translate this economic advantage into a technological/military one (e. g. by developing fully reliable missile defense systems and deploying them) we might even be able to eliminate the risk of Russia's nuclear threat altogether.


A dictator lives and dies based on his (projected) strength. Brainwashing his own population is one thing, but if he were to leave Ukraine empty handed after more or less humiliating his military, losing thousands of soldiers and wrecking his own economy, then I assume the people around him would get their daggers out.
The same goes for his foreign policy: I assume Nato could relatively easily stop his forces in Ukraine, but it's this image of a strong and unscrupulous leader that makes them too afraid to get actively involved.
And even this idea that he has absolutely nothing to fear about on the domestic front might be a bit naive. It sure doesn't feel like it, but we're just a couple of days into the war and the sanctions, war enthusiasm and emotions are probably at their peak. But that doesn't mean it will always be like that, once the economy deteriorates further and the coffins come home, going on and on about Nato and Nazis in Ukraine might not be so effective anymore.

I want to believe that as well but fear I'm not as convinced as you are. I don't know if Putin's grip on his inner circle is so firm that they won't stage a coup regardless of what happens, or if that is even possible to begin with (I hope not, obviously). But I have the fear that dictactors with modern technology can build such a brainwashing, surveillance and suppression machinery that it immediately suffocates even the earliest signs of revolution. And my thinking was that if the sanctions won't do the job, I have my doubts if a retreat which can be sold to the public as a finished mission and kept promise ("see, we never were that bad and just did what we proclaimed, NATO lied to you") will tips it over.
 
Could be a Ukrainian tactic to seed doubts within the Russian security services. If it's real that elements within the FSB helped...then that's interesting to say the least.



Find it hard to believe that Russian neo-Nazis are talking to that paper...
 


"I told her there were casualties among civilians. 'But that's what we had too when Ukraine attacked Donbas!', she said, laughing. For a moment I couldn't breathe. Hearing my mum say this with such cruelty just broke my heart."


Propaganda is truly scary.. Imagine your own mother starting to laugh when you tell her that your city is being bombed and civilians are dying all around you.