There was no insidious intent or provocation intended. The bold is the only part we agree on.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
No, I think a NFZ will be taken as a declaration of war and lead to nuclear escalation. I was just going through the scenarios.
I assume we’re very quickly reaching the point of saturation where more anti-tank or manpad systems won’t make a difference. The issue for Ukraine now will be more of the “do we have enough well trained soldiers to operate them?” nature.
Plus of course the rest of the military infrastructure (sigint, airforce, artillery, armoured vehicles etc.) is likely severely lacking and it will be required if they are to push the Russians back. Till then they are just hoping the Russians give up on account of high casualty rate, while the Ukrainian cities are getting pummelled.
Yeah, a literal reading of this article suggests that Russia shooting down NATO planes flewn by NATO pilots over Ukraine would not be considered the kind of armed attack that would trigger article 5.
But of course, what actually happens depends on all kinds of things. Russia might attack the NATO bases the planes came from, arguing that those now represent and attacking force; or NATO countries might define those planes as providing defensive support and consider their descruction a provocation; or [insert other scenarios here].
Read that use of some of the portable anti-armor weapons can be learned by civilians in a matter of hours, not sure about anti-air. But the mujahideen learned the Stinger pretty quickly, so there’s always hope.
“We had to destroy Kiev in order to save it [from neo-nazis]”
Homestead Act say whaaaaaaaaat
I hope enough of those soldiers have watched that 1965 cinema classic named Doctor Zhivago. One of the most powerful scenes was when a column of retreating soldiers came up meeting with a fresh group of soldiers being deployed towards the front, and there was only way this would end for the few who wanted the army to go fight a senseless war while in a state of total demoraliztion.
Sure, they might do that. But they might also do that because of arms transports, transit points of foreign volunteers, and even sanctions (which they've already ridiculously claimed is a declaration of war). My point is just that the act of shooting down Nato planes outside of Nato territory (and the ocean) doesn't concern Article 5, no more than any of those other things. You might claim that's a literal reading, but there is no other way to read the article.
That doesn't mean a no fly zone is a good idea, of course. Whether or not Russians shooting down American pilots is going to start WW3, Americans shooting down Russian pilots probably is.
Given the traditional disregard for casualty levels by Russian military leaders, you do wonder at what point these troops will mutiny. I have no doubt that, if they were defending Russian territory against invasion, they would fight like lions but, being asked to occupy and increasingly destroy a fraternal nation on the clearly fabricated grounds of neo-nazism, there must be a temptation to follow the example of their forefathers in 1917.
That point is far from reached. Saturation is reached when everywhere where Russian troops might appear there are enough of those weapons to obliterate them. Ukraine is a huge country, you need to distribute a massive amount to reach that point.
The Russians would still have the luxury of firing at Ukrainian cities from Russian controlled territory (eastern Russia to Kharkiv, Crimea to Mariupol, the Black Sea to Odesa, Belarus to northern Ukrainian cities). That capability will likely not go away because it can't be challenged. What can obviously be mitigated is their advances inside Ukraine, which is precisely what appears to be happening.
With some new drones these too can be challenged.
I'm not so sure about that. Obviously Ukraine is able to launch air strikes behind the front line against supply convois, command posts etc.
Some big IFs here, but if they manage to repel the Russian attack while maintaining their limited air strike capability, they might actually be able to penetrate the Russian airspace and destroy facilities there. Russia so far seems to have no answer to they Bayraktar drones, so it is a real possibility that Ukraine might target airfields or missile launch systems in Russia, once they don't need their limited capacity to stop ground forces.
Or he could shoot some down "accidentally" to see what price NATO would be willing to pay and suddenly this becomes a NATO Russia conflict with Russia seriously outgunned which in Putins mind could justify a tactical nuclear response.
Big words from a guy who has his girlfriend in a Monte Carlo apartment.
Shots fired.
These things could happen without a NFZ as well. Putin could get desperate inside Ukraine and go for the Hiroshima style kill shot in the hope Ukrainians would instantly surrender. We have to broaden the possibilities beyond the usual Article 5 fearmongering and consider the possibility that we are already in WW3, which case its important to broaden the ROE.
Can you expand a bit?
The internal fifth column, with their international rather than national sentiments/attachments, but for which we (Germany/Russia) would have won.
He's so detached from reality it makes you wonder how much his advisors have been lying to appease him all these years. From what I've read about dictators, they rarely if ever exist in a vacuum. They require a cabal of gutless opportunists to feed and appease their massive egos, while shielding them from the realities outside their bubble. These people are truly the worst b/c when it all comes crashing down they can always just say "He made me do it."
I think talk like that is reckless. We aren't in WW3 and we still at this moment have the ability to contain this and avoid escalation while continuing to weaken and defeat Putin. It may well mean Ukraine goes through hell for another week or so but given the alternative...
What emotions will Putin feel if he watches this? Anger? Vindication?
I'm confused by this...
So the gist is basically anyone who likes western things like getting paid in a currency worth more than toilet roll or being able to afford bread in the coming weeks is a weak traitor who isn’t a proper Russian. He’s just setting the narrative for the oncoming economic disaster. It’s the west’s fault and if you complain you’re not really Russian anyway.
never heard about "fifth column" or the likes in the context of Freikorps after WW1.
I get your general sentiment, though. Hitler personally hated cosmopolites with a passion, as they were living multiculturally and internationally without feeling attached to roots in a certain nation. Internationally thinking people were quite the exact opposite of what Hitler's dream of the ideal person was.
A combination of anger and contempt. Anger that an opponent has put together a compelling piece of progaganda and contempt that the opposition are effective in generating sympathy on their own behalf.
Ah right, I’m not really familiar with the Freikorps.
My interpretation is that he’s aiming specifically at the Oligarchs. But without knowing Russian and Putin’s way of doing things hard to know.
We don't know yet because we don't know Putin's mindset. If he is planning on discharging a WMD then we will look back this particular chapter as the west fecklessly misdiagnosing the situation because its leaders didn't have the stomach to deal with the prospect of actually going to war.
I could be wrong, I thought what you described was a more widespread feeling, and used as an explanation for Germany WW1 defeat.
You saying that's the post-WW1 Freikorps, or that's who the post-WW1 Freikorps blamed?
*Puts on Bradley Cooper's voice*
Ohhh yeeeah.
That thing is a kamizake-like drone less expensive than a Javelin and yet as effective on impact.