I think Putin's strategy is to destroy Ukraine before his inevitable withdrawal.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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I think Putin's strategy is to destroy Ukraine before his inevitable withdrawal.
For that he doesn't need troops, and with the troops there he can't do it. He can shell a few cities but that won't be a complete destruction.
Not quite: "Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia."
This demand is a total non-starter because it would leave Ukraine at the total mercy of Russia to continue taking further chunks of territory as and when it pleases. Instead, in my view, Ukraine will insist on (a) being free to arm itself to the teeth with defensive weaponry; and (b) joining the EU.
Given the Russian dependence on rail transport, I wonder if the Switchblades will enable the Ukrainians to target rail bridges behind Russian lines. I'm not sure if the explosives are big enough though. I guess if you hit a train on one of them...
The BBC reports:
"Russian forces are struggling to maintain their offensive in Ukraine, according to the latest intelligence assessment from the UK Ministry of Defence.
"Logistical problems continue to best Russia's faltering invasion of Ukraine," the report says.
Soldiers have not been able to effectively resupply their forward troops with "basic essentials such as food and fuel," due to their limited mobility and lack of air superiority.
"Incessant Ukrainian counterattacks are forcing Russia to divert large numbers of troops to defend their own supply lines. This is severely limiting Russia's offensive potential."
The report echoes the US assessment earlier on Thursday, which said that Russia's troop are "frozen around the country".
"Russian forces are struggling to maintain their offensive in Ukraine, according to the latest intelligence assessment from the UK Ministry of Defence.
"Logistical problems continue to best Russia's faltering invasion of Ukraine," the report says.
Soldiers have not been able to effectively resupply their forward troops with "basic essentials such as food and fuel," due to their limited mobility and lack of air superiority.
"Incessant Ukrainian counterattacks are forcing Russia to divert large numbers of troops to defend their own supply lines. This is severely limiting Russia's offensive potential."
The report echoes the US assessment earlier on Thursday, which said that Russia's troop are "frozen around the country".
I agree that bit is a non-starter but from the tone of the article, it appears more of a face-saving measure.
The biggest issue in any such agreement is literally the fact you'd be signing it with a party who you are 99% sure has their fingers crossed behind their back.
I really hope this is true and the ending of this war with a russian defeat isn't really that far away. There's a lot of dumb jokes about the russian Donbass and Paddington owning the russian bear that would be too insensitive to make otherwise
So far, nevermind the result, this is a spectacular miscalculation for Putin. Unifying the West, getting scammed by China/India, mortally wounding Panrussianism and evaporating the prestige of his army, in just one fatal decission. Although one could say that the RA has a long tradition of totally embarrasing itself every 40-50 years or so...
So apparently the rule of thumb is that for each fatality there are 2-3 wounded soldiers. Do we know anything about the severity of these wounds? Does this rule of thumb mean that they're out of fighting for a sustained period of time or could it be that some of them have recovered over a few days?
Plus those captured, surrendered or deserted.
There are reports - who knows how credible - not only of Russian troops simply parking their vehicles in woods and then abandoning them, but also of troops shooting themselves in the leg with captured Ukrainian ammo so that they can be invalided away from battles without fear of being shot for retreating.
UKR claims they have like 1k of Russian POWs.
Christians In Action!!
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He resigned over this the same day the story was published. In addition to increasing funding, the Germans seem to have a lot of work on their hands re: their military and intelligence agencies. Their intel chief was in Ukraine when Russia invaded.
He resigned over this the same day the story was published. In addition to increasing funding, the Germans seem to have a lot of work on their hands re: their military and intelligence agencies. Their intel chief was in Ukraine when Russia invaded.
Nothing like getting intel with your own eyes. Must come from the same Russian General school of leading from the front.
It would be a strong shift in strategy if Ukraine chooses to do that as means to cripple Russian supply lines even more. I don't think the Ukrainians are going there yet because they are containing the Russians to good effect, but the shift would operate prior to a proper counteroffensive to finish it off. In any case, the Russian army definitely sucks without rail-based infrastructure.
The BBC reports:
"... the latest daily assessment from the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank.
It says the southern port city of Mariupol is likely to fall in coming weeks amid a sustained Russian assault.
ISW analysis finds that Russian forces made no major territorial progress on Thursday, concurring with US and UK intelligence assessments.
But ISW concludes the "total destruction" of Mariupol and increased targeting of its residential areas may lead to its capitulation or eventual capture.
The think tank also says Ukrainian forces on Thursday appear to have inflicted heavy damage on Russian forces around Kyiv, and repelled Russian operations in the Kharkiv region.
It notes, too, that Ukraine's air defence continues to be effective, having shot down 10 Russian aircraft on Wednesday alone.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia may have expended nearly its entire store of precision cruise missiles in the first 20 days of its invasion.
Meanwhile, low morale is being reported among Syrian recruits, including several cases of self-mutilation to avoid fighting. Many mercenaries see deployment to the region as a chance to desert and migrate to the EU, according to Ukrainian intelligence."
"... the latest daily assessment from the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank.
It says the southern port city of Mariupol is likely to fall in coming weeks amid a sustained Russian assault.
ISW analysis finds that Russian forces made no major territorial progress on Thursday, concurring with US and UK intelligence assessments.
But ISW concludes the "total destruction" of Mariupol and increased targeting of its residential areas may lead to its capitulation or eventual capture.
The think tank also says Ukrainian forces on Thursday appear to have inflicted heavy damage on Russian forces around Kyiv, and repelled Russian operations in the Kharkiv region.
It notes, too, that Ukraine's air defence continues to be effective, having shot down 10 Russian aircraft on Wednesday alone.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia may have expended nearly its entire store of precision cruise missiles in the first 20 days of its invasion.
Meanwhile, low morale is being reported among Syrian recruits, including several cases of self-mutilation to avoid fighting. Many mercenaries see deployment to the region as a chance to desert and migrate to the EU, according to Ukrainian intelligence."
The areas I was looking at were two rail lines from Crimea in the south with 3-4 separate bridges that may be within the 50-ish mile range of the Switchblades. That front, with the exception of Mykolaiev, has been fairly effective, particularly moving northeast through Melitopol, Berdyansk, and to Mauriopol. Forcing them back to trucks along that axis would seem to be a win for Ukraine. The smaller version is definitely not going to take out any bridges, but I haven't found any videos of the bigger version.
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Several reports of areas around Lviv being hit
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Oh, fecking hell. Just round the corner to my wife’s parents’ business. Lviv airport is right in the city, rather than outside of it, and is also the busiest airport in the country outside of Kyiv, so a really important bit of infrastructure.
Keep in mind that this was pioneered by the German Wehrmacht and the Soviets adopted it.
Anyway he left the country together with the last of the embassy staff, so essentially working to the last second. I don't see anything wrong with this.
I don't think that was how it was framed by media reports. It seemed like he was caught off-guard rather than "working to the last second" and had to be rescued. He had missed an earlier evacuation.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-spy-chief-ukraine-focus-magazine-2022-02-25/
I'm not sure if this is the right move from the Ukrainians. No way is Russia leaving Crimea.
It's probably the right negotiating move as ultimately putin will insist on a face to face meeting where he wins concessions so if you give that up publicly beforehand he will want something else.
Ultimately it's hard to see Russia not getting crima as part of Russia and independence for the other regions agreed
Any sort of peace deal that keeps Putin and his friends in power is not sustainable. At this moment it is more important that Putin loses emphatically and is ousted. Only then can and should the status of Crimea be discussed. And I agree that long-term it might be better to give up Crimea, but not while the current Russian regime is in power.
If Ukraine takes Crimea back it will make a second Russian invasion much more unlikely. That island is a strategical danger for the south of Ukraine.
That report made it sound more dramatic then it was. They were driving with an armed escort, but this were just security guys, but in no way this was a special forces operation.
We are slowl moving to a point where we don't only talk about Ukraine anymore. The longer the Russians have massive losses, the more countries might be interested to fancy their chances of getting lost areas back under their control.
Japan was already talking about the Kurile Islands, Moldova about Transnistria and I'm sure Georgia is at least thinking about South Ossetia and Abchasia. Additionally if Kadyrov loses to many of his fighters, the Chechen people might try to get rid of him and the Russians at all.
I don't think I've ever seen a think tank get something right. They're not really worth listening to in the first place imo, and i highly doubt the US intelligence machine ever did.
I'm starting to get a lot of tweets like this in my feed now.
The reality is its not all within Ukraine's gift. They can make the decision but economic and military support will be linked to following NATOs desired path.
If it was as clear as that tweet suggested I'm not sure any negotiations would be going on.
Yeah that will be a tough one. Crimea has been only been de jour part of Ukraine since 2014, while it's been de facto part of Russia. They will not abandon it. And aside from what Putin and the Kremlin might accept, the people there are also primarily ethnic Russians who have had 8 years media control and Kremlin propaganda by now. So I'd stick my neck out and say they will not be very welcoming to a return to Ukraine any time soon.
I'm not here to tell the Ukrainians when to stop fighting and what deal they should take, but if it were me I think a deal along the following lines would be quite appealing:
- Recognition of Crimea as Russian territory
- More autonomy and local powers to Donbas while remaining part of Ukraine (disarmament of the rebels there and removal of Russian "little green men")
- Some superficial "de-Nazification" for Russian eyes mostly (disband the successor units to Azov battalion etc.)
- No NATO membership, but EU membership within Ukrainian rights
- No change of regime in Kyiv or any commitment to have any Kremlin stooges there in any executive role. Complete political independence.
- Right for Ukraine to arm (but no nukes)
Classic Sun lead story.
EU'S SHAME
France and Germany dodged Russia arms embargo to sell weapons to Putin – that are now being used to slaughter Ukrainians
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17986688/europe-dodged-russia-arms-embargo/
EU'S SHAME
France and Germany dodged Russia arms embargo to sell weapons to Putin – that are now being used to slaughter Ukrainians
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17986688/europe-dodged-russia-arms-embargo/
I think they can kiss Crimea goodbye, Russia is almost the dug in defending nation there, but the next week or two will determine Ukraine's approach elsewhere. I doubt they will agree to anything before then. By all accounts they have stalled the Russian advances and are beginning to counter attack. They will want to see if they can drive Russia out without having to give any concessions at all.
If, as is being discussed, Ukraine can get some S300s and other familiar ex-Soviet high altitude anti air systems from Eastern European neighbours, then Russia has very little left to hurt them with.
I agree.
There isn't any outside pressure on Ukraine to settle if they do not want to.
As long as the Russians don't break through they are dying in droves and their supply issues will only worsen. Putin either doubles down and calls up the reserves and increases conscription or he risks losing most of the men he has invaded with. At this point can he even be sure of being able to pull this army out? Ounce the retreat starts it could easily turn into a rout with thousands of men cut off.
Why would the Ukrainians give up now and let Putin lick his wounds and come back later with the shortcomings of his forces addressed. There is no peace deal that would prevent Russia having another go.
So its up to Zelensky to decide what is best in the long term for Ukraine.
As a matter of principle, a sovereign nation will never agree to cede its rightful territory after it has been invaded. What's to stop it happening again? Ukraine will never accept Crimea/Donbas as Russian land nor should they.
That could even be Ukraine's exact fall-back position but they are not going to admit it and open negotiations from there or Russia will just want more. The sad thing is how many die as their talks move to a conclusion of course.
While Russia is underperforming, I don't think it's really THAAT spectacular. They are still managing to advance. They are pummeling cities into submission. Yes, they are having logistics issues, but that was always going to be a concern with Russian (my father used to live in Russia and he tells me stories of soldiers trading diesel from tanks for vodka). I'm trying to be optimistic and hope that Russia (military and economy) will collapse soon. But Russian strength was always artillery and that's what they are still using. I'm of the opinion you can't win a war and conquer country with only artillery, but I'm no expert, so we'll see. Russia went into this war with completely wrong intel and no preparation, they've had to adapt and they did it. Now they are doing what they do best, leveling cities to oblivion. You've probably noticed there are not as much videos of captured Russians, of destroyed tanks and captured gear. They still are there, but less then they were in the first week. We also know nothing about Ukrainians casualties. At this point I feel this is turning into a war of attrition.
I know. I don't listen to them either. I just got triggered by "their we were wrong, but not really" thread.