Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I meant to post the cartoon but the letter is interesting too.
Lukashenko keeps on repositioning himself. I wonder how this will end for him. Claiming that Putin wants something that Putin surely does not want, or does not want made public (like early in the war plans to attack Moldova) is a constant in Lukashenko's behaviour, yet apparently Putin can't do anything about it.
Confirmations are arriving now it seems…This warship is one of the most modern ones in their fleet, apparently.
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Another russian military ship nakhui
The plant just being totally demolished for no good reason.
Not yet an official confirmation, but now we have proof of a fire in the claimed area. Could be the frigate.
If true, the Russian Black Sea Fleet now has only 2 major combat ships left.
Sink one tomorrow and another on Sunday, then Putin's "Victory Parade" on Monday would be marked by the effective loss of his entire Black Sea Fleet.
Most of the pro-Russian posts on Twitter are essentially forms of magical thinking from people who seem to imagine that if they post enough fake news/stupid propaganda items, then it's going to change the reality of Russia's military forces getting taken apart in this war. It's very strange.
I see a tendency, even from people who aren't pro-Russia but want to simply take a contrarian view, to revert back to some calculation of the total nominal Russian forces before this began minus estimated losses, and then compare that to estimated Ukraine forces when this began minus estimated losses. Then by that it appears that Russia is simply too much for Ukraine to handle.
But that ignores the old Napoleon quote of "In war, moral is to the physical as three is to one" (or other variations), and that Ukraine seems to have significant intelligence advantage provided by the US & others that appears to prevent Russia from obtaining strategic surprise in any of its efforts. It also ignores that Russia can't commit all of its forces to this fight, lest it leave its extensive borders unguarded.
Obviously I worry about the manpower of the Ukrainian military, especially in terms of experienced soldiers and officers that have likely seen significant casualties in the first 2 months of this conflict. And I don't know if they have the capability to successfully defeat and outflank Russian and separatist forces in the Donbass that might be fighting from more prepared positions.
Smoking is dangerous.
Username checks.
My understanding is that Ukraine has a lot of reserves that have not so far even been committed to the front lines - reserves that are of much higher quality than the Russian conscripts (and those in occupied territory who have now been press-ganged into fighting) that form a significant part of Russia's military.
I saw a update last night from a guy who knows his stuff and updates his campaign maps on a daily basis. The latest news from him is:
* The Russian forces that were previously not far from Kharkiv have lost a lot of ground, with the Ukrainian now having captured Staryi Saltiv to the east of Kharkhiv. This means that one of the Russians big logistical bases (well to the north of Izium) is now under increasing threat, along with the Russian supply lines southwards to Izium.
* The very large Russian advance south from Izium has been thrown back, with their troops retreating back into Izium after suffering big losses.
Nearly 4M Russians Left Russia in Early 2022 – FSB
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/06/nearly-4m-russians-left-russia-in-early-2022-fsb-a77603
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/06/nearly-4m-russians-left-russia-in-early-2022-fsb-a77603
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I'm not sure, but could this actually confirm that there will be no general mobilization? If there would be they could just start with those experts and wouldn't need to bother with hiring them first? What am I missing here?
If the video is true (and my guess is that it is), that's a major fire. If it survives, that ship will be out of action for very long time.
Red flags with a white circle and a black symbol?
I think they're looking in the wrong country for the Nazi's.
The Russian state does have records of males of the right age to be conscripted but I highly doubt they have accurate databases about who is or isn't a mobilisation or logistics expert.
What I find odd is that these people are supposed to be already working in the districts during peacetime. Not to start posting adds on linked in - "Hiring now due to WW3."
Yeah, well, the Russian military and the Russian state in general hasn't exactly proven to be the apotheosis of efficient operation
What is the official position of the ukranian government regarding crimea? Let's say things go really well for them and they push back the russians, are they likely to try and take crimea back by force?
Peter Zeihan is a policy expert who predicted the Russian invasion. He quotes Catherine the Great as saying the only was Russia can defend is borders is to expand. They apparently want to hold 9 regions that are the 9 ways to invade Russia, and this is fed by a history with many invasions. This would require them to take Poland and everything that was part of the former Soviet Union except Germany.
He says that because of their demographics, they'll have half the population they do now by 2050, and none of them will be highly skilled as the Russian system of higher education was replaced with apprenticeships after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They thus feel that they're about to lose their last chance to get the kind of "security" they idealize (of course few countries have ideal defensible borders and don't feel the need to murder people over it, so it's no excuse).
He says for these reasons Mearsheimer is wrong. Here are two of the videos, there are much longer ones.
And if the West don't want to fight Russia in a NATO country, they better make sure Russia is bogged down in Ukraine for years.
He says that because of their demographics, they'll have half the population they do now by 2050, and none of them will be highly skilled as the Russian system of higher education was replaced with apprenticeships after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They thus feel that they're about to lose their last chance to get the kind of "security" they idealize (of course few countries have ideal defensible borders and don't feel the need to murder people over it, so it's no excuse).
He says for these reasons Mearsheimer is wrong. Here are two of the videos, there are much longer ones.
And if the West don't want to fight Russia in a NATO country, they better make sure Russia is bogged down in Ukraine for years.
Ukraine has never officially accepted the loss of Crimea and LPR/DPR.
They believe Crimea is still part of Ukraine that was stolen by the Russians (a vast majority of the world believe this as well). IMO, they aren't likely to push into Crimea unless Putin is deposed and the entire Russian regime collapses. Anything short of that would result in massive pushback from Putin and his goons involving other than conventional weapons. They would probably prefer to annihilate Crimea than see the Ukrainians reclaim it atop the already humiliating Russian losses in Ukraine.
That ship is wasted. With the size of that fire combined to what is said about no full crew fire drills in the Russian Navy, there is no chance that ship can come back into the fight if it's not sunk already.
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It follows they would level the area if Ukraine can push the Russian soldiers out of Crimea. This Peter Zeihan guy I just mentioned said it will be 10 years until Ukraine can produce wheat and corn at the levels they did pre-covid, with terrible implications for Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.