That's what will more than likely stop him from pressing the button, someone who has kids and wants to see them grow up and also has a gun near putin, because he would know what MAD is.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
If Russia nuke Ukraine then what ?
Is there going to be a direct and instant nuke response on Russia?
Are the targets agreed ? Moscow?
Where is it launched from?
Has all of this been played out in Nato ?
Would that be the start of Russia going all in then being obliterated?
What would China do?
Shit makes you wonder
I don't think I like where this is going
Large mobilisation and presumably movement of troops and equipment through the winter whilst they have a referendum
They then declare the region's part of Russia and say any attack on those regions is a direct attack on Russia
A lot of countries won't recognise the referendum and certainly Ukraine won't therefore attacks happen
Then... Well it's hard to see either side backing down
Large mobilisation and presumably movement of troops and equipment through the winter whilst they have a referendum
They then declare the region's part of Russia and say any attack on those regions is a direct attack on Russia
A lot of countries won't recognise the referendum and certainly Ukraine won't therefore attacks happen
Then... Well it's hard to see either side backing down
Wha does partial mobilisation means?
But the attacks have already been happening on the official Russian territory in Belgorod region and self claimed territory of Crimea, and Russia did nothing. They, as always, are trying to scare off the west and making us reduce our support for Ukraine. Hope we don't fall for it.
I think stuff like people who have already served in the army are conscripted.
Putin’s MO is that he always wants to look like he’s prepared to escalate further and further. Further than the West would be willing to go. He’s spent a lot of time building up that image, but that’s all it is really. A projection that he needs the West to believe to dissuade them from standing up to him. I don’t buy it at all. I think he’s a rational person, under all that facade, and I think he knows in a full scale war or a nuclear exchange, that he would come off worst.
I'm not eligible for conscription in any scenario, thankfully.
It's still a "special military operation" in his words, I've looked it up specifically. It's hard to get a clear picture on how people reacted to that from my perspective, I'm not following any pro-Putin/government media directly and nor do I regularly talk with people who support the war. We'll get a better understanding at the evening, I imagine, so far I can only hope that this will prove to be a final mistake that cripples the regime. They want to call up around 300k if Shoigu is to be believed, surely it has to provoke a counterreaction!
I don't believe that he will personally but we're certainly way beyond the point where we could've assumed that Putin won't do something because it's not rational.
How can there possibly be 300k veterans to call up? Are they going to be raiding the old folks homes?
He's slightly mistaken in numbers.
By Shoigu's estimation Russia have lost ~5900 soldiers killed (and 90% of wounded are already healed & back in action), Ukraine have lost ~61k killed and ~49k wounded. And everything goes according to plan on the battlefield. So we need to call up 300k more conscripts. Logic!
I think the average bi-annual wave of conscriptions calls up around 150k. They serve 1 year (it was 2 years originally but they've cut the time of service in half) and get back to their homes, listed as potential reserves. Again, I don't know the exact numbers but there should be a lot of those reserves available in theory. But I doubt that they'd be happy to get called up + it's not like they've got any combat experience during their service, you get almost no relevant training aside from sweeping up the platz, smuggling phones and cigarettes through security and making tanks out of snow, which should come in handy in the upcoming winter military campaign.
Oh I see, so effectively they didn't serve a 2nd year and in exchange they get to go and freeze to death in Ukraine? Not far off a general mobilisation at this point then...
he doesn’t win, he just ensures everyone loses as badly as he does.
The equivalent of flipping over the risk board when you have one solitary army remaining in Kamchatka and your opponent has every other territory.
Can't believe other senior Russians are standing by and watching this unfold and are not collectively moving against Putin. Its madness.
Is he really kaiser soze though?
I think those who served for 2 years (so, those who were conscripted before) 2008 are also available for conscription, so no.
Usmanov estate has been raided in Germany, seems to have been flouting the sanctions.
I don't understand how the mobilisation would help their case and fix their problems . Morale is low as it is and winter is coming . Logistics are a mess , they don't seem to be able to train and supply not even the existing conscripts .
It's probably the only option he has to change the course of the war that he's losing. Is it going to be successful? Not likely. Is it going to cost tens of thousands of additional lives gone? Most certainly, but he doesn't care about those, be it the lives of Ukrainians, civilian and military, or the lives of his own constituents.
He's backed himself into a corner, betting everything on this war, he can't afford to lose it and throwing tons of meat onto a meat grinder in the hope of breaking it is a tactic that was historically successful for Soviet Union during his beloved World War II.
It'll be months before concripts are ready for the battlefield surely? Unless Putin has gone fully lambs to the slaughter. I'd assume this is Putin onboarding next spring's military in the hope that Ukraine is unable to reinforce as fully as Russia after winter. It would be entirely in-line with Putin's thinking to rely on winter to come to Russia's aid once again. In reality, he's chucking numbers at a problem he's unable to contend with through technology, intelligence and knowhow.
Imagine if what Russia was saying was actually true and it was us being lied to all along
I am a fool indeed… they really aired his pre-recorded escalatory message. Mind, he knows he is being seen as a wan*er right now, and a pariah without any support: even real wan*ers like Lukashenko and Kadyrov cannot believe he is doing this for real. He is not even buying time because there is no way any mobilisation can impact this war in the sense he likes: his army, his hierarchy, his packages have been found out as a corrupt, inept, gigantic fraud.
This only leads to a quick endgame, imho, which is as necessary as scary: can he really throw nukes?
Putin basically showing the whole world just how reluctant he is to go all-out in this war.
I expect they're talking about it, he's killed a lot of important people this year.
While Iranian women stood up and have taken it to the streets, Russian men are hiding from the mobilization:
There isn't even a Lenin street in Moscow.
Nukes will be met by more nukes and its curtains for everyone in Russia. The world will not just sit and watch.
Has there ever been a civil war in Russia?
Is this a serious question?
Russia has won wars before by just throwing numbers at them.
Different times
Lenin Avenue?
The Russian military does not seem to realise that.
How is that the case? He's only escalating further, and he can't do much more than this, even with a full-scale war. He simply can't recruit people.
Do they even have enough modern equipment to arm these new recruits? Weren't they already running low before?