Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Putin adopting the "Hope the opposing forces guns overheat or they run out of bullets" defensive strategy last used by Stalin.

I think we civilians can be compassionate and acknowledge that many Russians are clearly fearing for their families when they go along with the mobilisation process.

However the best thing in the long run for Ukraine and the rest of the world would be to just steamroller through this first batch of cannon fodder and hope it finally fractures the Russian armed forces into cutting the head off the snake.

Big shout out to Harms...get well, stay safe and thanks for the inside info!
 
Why have we got a pro-Ukrainian bot account in an overwhelmingly pro-Ukrainian thread?
 
tomaldinho1 said:
I have no idea how you've come to this conclusion, the few local Russian posters we have (which I am assuming is probably your only actual contact with a Russian) are very clearly anti-Putin and anti-war.
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I’ve no idea about percentages but most of the people I was working with before I left were supportive of the 2014 annexations. And they were about as Westernised as you get over there. So, while @Rajma might use emotive language at times, he is making the important point that Russia is not some liberal European country being held hostage by a lunatic. Even if/when the current leadership falls, there would be a huge amount of work to do over there to acquaint much of the population with reality.
 
@Rajma

Let me try another angle. As you can see, the reaction you're getting in this thread is not what you want. As part of your informational warfare, what you're trying to is to do what you see as furthering the Ukranian cause in whatever way possible. What you're doing now is counterproductive, so the best thing you can do right now is to just stop. You won't get to demonize Russians, but at least you won't have people defending them. If you continue posting this way, then - in the famous words of Henning Wehn - you're effectively fighting for the other side.
 
MoskvaRed said:
I’ve no idea about percentages but most of the people I was working with before I left were supportive of the 2014 annexations. And they were about as Westernised as you get over there. So, while @Rajma might use emotive language at times, he is making the important point that Russia is not some liberal European country being held hostage by a lunatic. Even if/when the current leadership falls, there would be a huge amount of work to do over there to acquaint much of the population with reality.
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Thanks I was just about to post the same and sorry for derailing this thread. While I go over the board but the main point is that people in the west should understand that it’s not Putin’s war only or this history will keep repeating itself. Many people (in leadership positions too) delude themselves thinking that problem will be solved by getting rid of Putin. I know russia has many beautiful and good people but I closely watch many russian bloggers etc. (being russian speaking myself) and opposition tv channels I can still see the imperialist mindset slipping through at times (unintentionally), you can only notice those things if you know what those things are and I’m not even talking about russians outside of main cities. Example: while working in London I had a coworker from Moscow, she was very sweet and really supportive to me personally but even she started waffling about rusophobia in Estonia people are segregated as Russian people, even those who were been born there don’t get the proper passport (without knowing the fact that those Russians have been brought to Estonia during soviet era as part of the ethnic displacement and that the requirement to obtain the proper Estonian passport is piss easy as long as you know how to count to 10 in Estonian but many refuse to learn the basic language in the country they want to live in (imperialist mindset) or enjoy having visa free regime with Russia that have been granted to such passport holders by Russia, while enjoying all the benefits of living in EU). This imperialist mindset even at the smallest of scales later turns into genocide of the neighboring countries.
 
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MoskvaRed said:
I’ve no idea about percentages but most of the people I was working with before I left were supportive of the 2014 annexations. And they were about as Westernised as you get over there. So, while @Rajma might use emotive language at times, he is making the important point that Russia is not some liberal European country being held hostage by a lunatic. Even if/when the current leadership falls, there would be a huge amount of work to do over there to acquaint much of the population with reality.
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I'm under no illusions about how powerful their propaganda has been - I also don't think people should expect the country will meaningfully change in our lifetime but it can get onto a much better path. It doesn't matter if that path is EU friendly either as long as it's peaceful.
 
I have to apologize to our Russian posters on here though who are grand, and I know sometimes it’s easy for me to speak.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
I'm under no illusions about how powerful their propaganda has been - I also don't think people should expect the country will meaningfully change in our lifetime but it can get onto a much better path. It doesn't matter if that path is EU friendly either as long as it's peaceful.
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Ironically, until Russia goes through the real desovietization (similarly to what Germans had to go through) there won’t be any real changes, you can mark my words.
 
MoskvaRed said:
I’ve no idea about percentages but most of the people I was working with before I left were supportive of the 2014 annexations. And they were about as Westernised as you get over there. So, while @Rajma might use emotive language at times, he is making the important point that Russia is not some liberal European country being held hostage by a lunatic. Even if/when the current leadership falls, there would be a huge amount of work to do over there to acquaint much of the population with reality.
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This. I lived in Russia in 2014 and the support of Crimea annexation was as genuine as it gets across all population except small liberal bubbles in biggest cities. Western media tend to emphasize liberal protest movement, but even the criticism of Putin historically came from extreme conservative/nationalistic/imperialistc or communist positions to arguably even greater degree than from liberal positions. The respectable (and liberal) experts in the field estimate that the elections of Putin have been falsified but the effect has been limited to 5-10 percentage points in his favor. For all the crackdown on independent media, in the grand scheme of things Putin era was a relatively minor setback from 1990s and alternative opinion is still one mouse click away from most Russians (vs Russian empire/Soviet times) - 85% of Russians have internet access.

I am not saying that Russians are uniquely bad, plenty of nations have been no better in their history, but they are in really really dark place now. Unless a miracle happens, it will take generations of slow, painful progress and many setbacks. I mean I come from a very close country (Belarus), Russian is one of my native languages, I have lived there for a happy 5 years, have many friends there and enjoyed many things about the country, and it pains me to see all of this. But the extent to which imperial, illiberal and chauvinistic mindset is ingrained into Russian society must not be underestimated.
 
Can we go back to the news from the front? Otherwise I could share with all of you my vision on russian society based on having a russian coworker and having visited a few blogs. Or better, we could hear it from people who are actually there right now.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...kiy-lays-out-peace-formula-at-un-live-updates

It looks like Putin already achieved a minor goal with his speech: spin the focus away from his last losses in Kharkiv and Kherson. I hope the UA stay focused and keeps the pressure high.
 
Max_United said:
This. I lived in Russia in 2014 and the support of Crimea annexation was as genuine as it gets across all population except small liberal bubbles in biggest cities. Western media tend to emphasize liberal protest movement, but even the criticism of Putin historically came from extreme conservative/nationalistic/imperialistc or communist positions to arguably even greater degree than from liberal positions. The respectable (and liberal) experts in the field estimate that the elections of Putin have been falsified but the effect has been limited to 5-10 percentage points in his favor. For all the crackdown on independent media, in the grand scheme of things Putin era was a relatively minor setback from 1990s and alternative opinion is still one mouse click away from most Russians (vs Russian empire/Soviet times) - 85% of Russians have internet access.

I am not saying that Russians are uniquely bad, plenty of nations have been no better in their history, but they are in really really dark place now. Unless a miracle happens, it will take generations of slow, painful progress and many setbacks. I mean I come from a very close country (Belarus), Russian is one of my native languages, I have lived there for a happy 5 years, have many friends there and enjoyed many things about the country, and it pains me to see all of this. But the extent to which imperial, illiberal and chauvinistic mindset is ingrained into Russian society must not be underestimated.
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Zhyve Belarus! I’m so sad you guys did not manage to overthrow “chik chirika” but looking back you had no chance with Putin set on invading Ukraine through your territory. I was there though rooting for your free people:
https://www.euronews.com/amp/2020/0...chain-in-lithuania-in-solidarity-with-belarus
 
Rajma said:
Unfortunately, vast majority (90%, including many so called liberals) cheered on it.
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No one calls them liberals aside from Putin and his supporters by the way.
 
Rajma said:
Zhyve Belarus! I’m so sad you guys did not manage to overthrow “chik chirika” but looking back you had no chance with Putin set on invading Ukraine through your territory. I was there though rooting for your free people:
https://www.euronews.com/amp/2020/0...chain-in-lithuania-in-solidarity-with-belarus
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Sadly, realistically peaceful protests - no matter how huge - could have overthrown him back in 1995-1996, after that - no chance.

But anyway Belarus is a good counterargument to those who say opinion poll results in Russia are not indicative of anything, fear etc. The regime in Belarus is even more brutal, fear widespread - yet polls show a lot less support for Lukashenko (max. 1/3 of population). I have good friends who are sociologists in both countries - they say they do have good techniques to adjust for fear - and unfortunately this does not make Russian poll results much better.

What I think western Europeans/Americans miss is that experience of being someone from former Russian empire living in "Russia proper". People are generally normal and nice and friendly but you still constantly encounter such things as people not understanding why you do not automatically identify youself as Russian if Russian is your first language (imaging an Englishman saying that to an Irishman or a Scotsman eh?), making fun of your native language, saying that your country is not a real country etc. And this all from very educated and westernized people, and absolutely genuinely surprised if you (politely!) do not agree with them!

Unfortunately, most Russians genuinely, really subscribe to the notion that at least Ukraine and Belarus are - whilst formally independent - not really countries and not really separate nations from Russia. It is also important to keep in mind when wondering why there is limited protest in Russia against the war. In minds of many people I would even say Ulkraine is somwhat akin to a rebellious breakaway Russian republic like Chechnya. But what is of course worse is that many in the west at least until 2022 kind of agreed with that deep down - even if paying lip service to Ukraininan independence. Thankfully it seems to be changing now, albeit at a horrible cost.
 
Rajma said:
Thanks I was just about to post the same and sorry for derailing this thread. While I go over the board but the main point is that people in the west should understand that it’s not Putin’s war only or this history will keep repeating itself. Many people (in leadership positions too) delude themselves thinking that problem will be solved by getting rid of Putin. I know russia has many beautiful and good people but I closely watch many russian bloggers etc. (being russian speaking myself) and opposition tv channels I can still see the imperialist mindset slipping through at times (unintentionally), you can only notice those things if you know what those things are and I’m not even talking about russians outside of main cities. Example: while working in London I had a coworker from Moscow, she was very sweet and really supportive to me personally but even she started waffling about rusophobia in Estonia people are segregated as Russian people, even those who were been born there don’t get the proper passport (without knowing the fact that those Russians have been brought to Estonia during soviet era as part of the ethnic displacement and that the requirement to obtain the proper Estonian passport is piss easy as long as you know how to count to 10 in Estonian but many refuse to learn the basic language in the country they want to live in (imperialist mindset) or enjoy having visa free regime with Russia that have been granted to such passport holders by Russia, while enjoying all the benefits of living in EU). This imperialist mindset even at the smallest of scales later turns into genocide of the neighboring countries.
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I work with someone Russian and she truly sees the breakup of the Soviet Union as being a deeply flawed, imposed from elsewhere, temporary solution, where the only logical response is to redraw the map to reflect realities on the ground. A bit like the Sykes-Picot line between Iraq and Syria. And she also believes (or believed, until it was banned) that Russia Today is a genuinely truthful news channel. It’s a big challenge to deal with these beliefs. It’s a decades-long job, but it needs to be done.
 
Rajma said:
I have to apologize to our Russian posters on here though who are grand, and I know sometimes it’s easy for me to speak.
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Your posts are worse than Glaston's were. The way your posts trivialise the on-going suffering is frankly disgusting. Your posts make you sound like a 12 year old playing Call of Duty. Your posts make this thread even more fecking miserable than it should be.
 
dumbo said:
Your posts are worse than Glaston's were. The way your posts trivialise the on-going suffering is frankly disgusting. Your posts make you sound like a 12 year old playing Call of Duty. Your posts make this thread even more fecking miserable than it should be.
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How does he triviliase the suffering? This is way too harsh.
 
Surely at some point the nation will turn on Putin, you can't just send thousands of men out to war and expect no blowback when they all return in body bags.
 
Derailing from topic, due to work I randomly get to be very active or inactive altogether in this thread.

Last reply I wanted to respond to was one suggesting something was posted without being confirmed:

this is not bbc and we all cant be David Ornstein, I sometimes quote interesting news story and am happy to be rebuked with facts proving me wrong, thats what makes a debate.

In a rare support to @GlastonSpur, i enjoyed him keeping the thread alive, even though his posted tweets were one sided, before members, I never saw in this thread before, started attacking him, for posting unverified tweets, which mainly consisted of bbc news.

Sorry if I ruffled some feathers, point im trying to make is, appreciate everyones contribution, prove them wrong with facts, not a spasm, regardless of your mood and move on.
 
dumbo said:
Your posts are worse than Glaston's were. The way your posts trivialise the on-going suffering is frankly disgusting. Your posts make you sound like a 12 year old playing Call of Duty. Your posts make this thread even more fecking miserable than it should be.
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There is surely a difference in suffering between the country where some men are being conscripted, and, on the other hand, the country that has been fighting for survival for 6 months amidst claims that it is an artificial country with no right to exist. What’s your level of involvement with this topic? Admittedly you do post some historically-linked stuff on here to impress people (Thucycides quotes etc ) but I’m not sure about your knowledge of Russia and its former empire. Happy to be enlightened.
 
hp88 said:
Surely at some point the nation will turn on Putin, you can't just send thousands of men out to war and expect no blowback when they all return in body bags.
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This in isolation is too litte for the nation to turn on him. It is not like all initiators of imperialistc wars with heavy casualties suffer an immediate loss of popularity/power at home - far from it, alas. And he still has "credit in the bank" due to the life generally improving from the time he took power plus Crimea etc.

However, the longer it goes with higher casualties coupled with economic hardship and military defeat/no prospect of victory - the higher the risks for him (multiple cases in russian history of unsuccessful wars beginning with an outburst of patriotism and ending up with regime change) . And with "partial" mobilization he is possibly speeding up his eventual downfall. But it could well take several bloody and dark years before he is gone.
 
I enjoyed @GlastonSpur's tweet posts in the early days of this thread too. He (and a few good others) kept me updated more than any other news source until I eventually joined Twitter myself.
 
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