Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Rajma said:
While vast majority is being shot down it’s not sustainable in the current format because air-defense rockets have to be wasted in large quantities on these cheap Iranian drones, severely depleting their existing arsenal. Hopefully US and partners doing everything at the moment to develop a cost efficient way to totally neutralize these because as I predicted when this news only started to find its legs it might be a game changer, unfortunately. Some suggestions that zenith artillery systems are needed for Ukraine to shot these downs optimally.
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To add they (iran/russia) can produce these drones at an estimated rate of 100/day, apparently. Russia only understands retaliation so unless west provides enough for Ukraine to swarm Russian infrastructure and cities with similar drones, they’ll keep coming.
 
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Rajma said:
To add they (iran/russia) can produce these drones at an estimated rate of 100/day, apparently. Russia only understands retaliation so unless west provides enough for Ukraine to swarm Russian infrastructure and cities with similar drones, they’ll keep coming.
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This will hasten research and production of anti-drone defences. Know it sounds sci-fi but electronic jammers and laser defence is long term the best response to these low budget, low-tech drones, as it's a low-cost, hi-tech method to neutralise quite a nasty piece of equipment. On the flip side, NATO militaries don't have any equivalents because they have super effective airforces so it's not possible to supply similar to Ukraine other than giving them better ballistics, which they should.

The only country that definitely has super effective drone defence is Israel. Will be a game changer if they decide to supply that defence to Ukrainian cities (which I think will partially happen, as the tech is joint developed with the US). However, I wouldn't count on Israel to rush to Ukraine's aid unless they see it as a fantastic opportunity to test their ware against Iranian made drones. The trade-off being Iran gets an opportunity to work out how to evade Israeli defences... Can't see Israel considering that a worthwhile trade-off sadly.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
What is the endgame for Putin? Do Russia's neighbors think Putin's ambition/avarice ends there? Does Putin himself think normal relations will eventually resume, just like after Crimea when Trump just looked the other way (or barked like a good little lap doggy)?

I think we are at the point in the story where the third act begins. Western leaders need to say out loud what they all secretly realize, and that is that Putin cannot be allowed to stay in power. At the very minimum he is guilty of war crimes. I think NATO and the western powers keep hoping Putin will grow tired of the invasion and go back to whatever it is he does in his free time (ride horses while shirtless?). The fact that we keep hearing tactical nuclear weapons discussed should tell everyone that there will be no return to "normal" while Putin is in power.

So what do we do? Seal Team 6?
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Raoul said:
The end game for the west has to be removing Putin from within by weakening Russia through a combination of sanctions and internal unrest. I don’t think any western leader will publicly admit this, but they are all thinking it.

I think Putin’s strategy will be to draw this out and rely on a favorable change of government in the US.
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Russias tone has changed a bit lately and there have been several stories of them "wanting talks with the west" which means they have realized this wont end well for them at the current trajectory and they probaby hope that they can strike a deal where they kept Crimea as well as Donetsk and Luhansk for a ceasefire.

Putin severely overestimated the capabilites of his own army and if The EU Parliment votes to recognising Russia a state sponsor of terror their hard pressed economy is surely going to collapse.

Maybe hes delusional and thinks he can turn this around still, but imo, surrendering is not an option for Putin in either case. So he will keep sending ill prepared recruits into the meat grinder until hes removed from within or he destroys us all in a nuclear holocaust
 
https://www.militarytimes.com/congr...m_medium=social&utm_campaign=tw_militarytimes

Bipartisan legislation introduced in the Senate would grant the Pentagon wartime procurement powers, allowing it to buy massive amounts high-priority munitions using multi-year contracts to help Ukraine fight Russia and to refill U.S. stockpiles.
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The list includes:
750,000 XM1128 and XM1123 rounds for 155mm artillery.
1,000 M777 Howitzers.
700 M142 HIMARS.
100,000 GMLRS rockets for the HIMARS.
6,000 MGM-140 ATACMS missiles.
20,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
25,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles.
30,000 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles.
36,000 AGM-179 Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles
1,000 Harpoon missiles.
800 Naval Strike Missile.
10,000 Patriot air defense missiles.
20,000 AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles.
 
the hea said:
https://www.militarytimes.com/congr...m_medium=social&utm_campaign=tw_militarytimes



The list includes:
750,000 XM1128 and XM1123 rounds for 155mm artillery.
1,000 M777 Howitzers.
700 M142 HIMARS.
100,000 GMLRS rockets for the HIMARS.
6,000 MGM-140 ATACMS missiles.
20,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
25,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles.
30,000 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles.
36,000 AGM-179 Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles
1,000 Harpoon missiles.
800 Naval Strike Missile.
10,000 Patriot air defense missiles.
20,000 AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles.
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I guess this to protect against a pro-russian Congress and a possible Trump or Trump-lite presidency in 2014?
 
the hea said:
https://www.militarytimes.com/congr...m_medium=social&utm_campaign=tw_militarytimes



The list includes:
750,000 XM1128 and XM1123 rounds for 155mm artillery.
1,000 M777 Howitzers.
700 M142 HIMARS.
100,000 GMLRS rockets for the HIMARS.
6,000 MGM-140 ATACMS missiles.
20,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
25,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles.
30,000 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles.
36,000 AGM-179 Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles
1,000 Harpoon missiles.
800 Naval Strike Missile.
10,000 Patriot air defense missiles.
20,000 AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles.
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Absolutely massive numbers, initially I missed the "Refill the US stockpiles" and thought ok this should be sufficient to reach Vladivostok.
 

For anyone wondering why Baltics/Poland have completely closed the border for Russian citizens.
 


Iran is sending ground launched ballistic missiles to Russia that is very similar to the ATACMS missiles both in range and warhead size.
 
the hea said:


Iran is sending ground launched ballistic missiles to Russia that is very similar to the ATACMS missiles both in range and warhead size.
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Then about time US finally allows the ATACMS shipment, and also what is Israel really doing here...
 

Russian channels in coordination coming out with retreating from Kherson bs, some suggested that they might be planning to flood Kherson region by blowing up the dam in nova kakhovka (and blaming Ukraine obviously). That would be the sort of war crime that is not beyond these nazis, so I expect for the worst to happen.
 
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So the chief Nazi is on the record now saying the same thing. They’re retreating now only question if they will blow up the dam when leaving to the other side of Dnipro.
 
Rajma said:

So the chief Nazi is on the record now saying the same thing. They’re retreating now only question if they will blow up the dam when leaving to the other side of Dnipro.
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Quite the smooth talker, ain't he.
 
Rajma said:

So the chief Nazi is on the record now saying the same thing. They’re retreating now only question if they will blow up the dam when leaving to the other side of Dnipro.
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It’s almost fitting that the orcs try to use a tactic from the Lord of the Rings
 
Rajma said:

So the chief Nazi is on the record now saying the same thing. They’re retreating now only question if they will blow up the dam when leaving to the other side of Dnipro.
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The Austin Powers prop department on line 1
 
Raoul said:
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The tweet makes him sound important while he's really not — he was just low-level commissioner in 2 far-away Far East districts.
 
Interesting bit on how uneasy the Ukrainians were with regards to sharing their defense plans with the US.

Another underlying source of unease was that U.S. officials had little understanding of the Ukrainian plan to defend the country, or even if such a plan existed. General Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was speaking several times a week with his counterpart in Kyiv, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces. Milley pressed Zaluzhnyi for information about how Ukraine would defend itself, including a request for detailed inventories of weapons stockpiles. Milley also offered his own strategic vision—an emphasis on dispersed mobile units, multiple lines of defense across the country, and a mixture of conventional forces and partisan warfare. “Our message was not, ‘You guys are about to get steamrolled, so you should just sue for peace,’ ” a U.S. military official said. “Rather, the message was that you are about to get steamrolled, so you have to get your defenses majorly shored up.”

Zaluzhnyi seemed hesitant to provide any details. Not only was he protective of his plans, he refused to share the placement of arms caches, which he was constantly moving and camouflaging to keep them from being destroyed or captured by the Russian Army. Some U.S. officials worried that Zaluzhnyi, like Zelensky, didn’t fully believe the U.S. intelligence. “Others were convinced he believed it, and had war plans on hand,” the military official said, “but wanted to keep them secret from Zelensky.”

Given Zelensky’s reluctance to put the country on a war footing, there was speculation that Zaluzhnyi may have been trying to avoid the possibility of being asked to scale down his preparations. If this was the case, the U.S. military official said, it’s possible that Zaluzhnyi didn’t want to share them with Milley because he was afraid that Milley would then brief the White House, which would in turn say something to Zelensky.

Finally, in February, Zaluzhnyi agreed to share his plan for defending Ukraine. A defense attaché from the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, an Air Force colonel, was summoned to a meeting at the general-staff headquarters and shown a one-page sketch of Ukrainian positions and defensive schemes. She was not given a copy, and was permitted to take only handwritten notes. Even having stipulated these conditions, Zaluzhnyi was less than forthcoming. His subordinates showed the attaché a false version of the plan, masking the full scope of the defensive campaign.

Ultimately, Zaluzhnyi’s strategy was to prevent the capture of Kyiv at all costs, while, in other areas, letting Russian forces run ahead of their logistics and supply lines. The idea was to trade territory in the short term in order to pick off Russian units once they were overextended. “We trusted no one back then,” a senior Ukrainian military official said. “Our plan was our one tiny chance for success, and we did not want anyone at all to know it.”
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https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/10/24/inside-the-us-effort-to-arm-ukraine
 
Rajma said:

So the chief Nazi is on the record now saying the same thing. They’re retreating now only question if they will blow up the dam when leaving to the other side of Dnipro.
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He doesn't even know how to look at the camera.
 
MTF said:
Deception is fun.
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The whole article is extremely interesting. Very long though.

One evening in April, at an intelligence-coördination center somewhere in Europe, Ukrainian military officers asked their American and nato counterparts to confirm a set of coördinates. This had become a common practice. Ukrainian representatives might ask for verification of the location of a Russian command post or ammunition depot. “We do that, fair game,” the senior Biden Administration official said.

In some cases, U.S. intelligence and military officers provide targeting information unsolicited: “We do let them know, say, there’s a battalion moving on Slovyansk from the northwest, and here’s roughly where they are.” But, the official emphasized, Ukrainian forces choose what to hit. “We are not approving, or disapproving, targets.”

The Biden Administration has also refused to provide specific intelligence on the location of high-value Russian individuals, such as generals or other senior figures. “There are lines we drew in order not to be perceived as being in a direct conflict with Russia,” the senior U.S. official said. The United States will pass on coördinates of a command post, for example, but not the presence of a particular commander. “We are not trying to kill generals,” the senior Biden Administration official said. “We are trying to help the Ukrainians undermine Russian command and control.”
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VorZakone said:
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Not a chance. Weapons lobbyists runs that place. There’s too much money to be had and apparently a lot of GOP members are even saying that aren’t moving fast enough on Ukraine. It’s the ultimate grift for them. They’ll make a fortune from it
 
I wonder what would happen if for once we stepped back? Would the French step up? Germans? Spanish? Polish would.. but the rest.. meh.
 
The US are a disgrace anyways. While every European state who supports Ukraine does so in donating weapons and money the US sell them, and actually urge the EU to make sure that Ukraine gets enough money to pay the US for weapons. It's a shame.
 
stefan92 said:
The US are a disgrace anyways. While every European state who supports Ukraine does so in donating weapons and money the US sell them, and actually urge the EU to make sure that Ukraine gets enough money to pay the US for weapons. It's a shame.
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What is your source for this ? The US is literally giving the Ukrainians billions in weapons and aid - far more than any other country (as percentage of GDP is irrelevant here since it doesn’t reflect support at scale or the sophistication of weapons).
 
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