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He could certainly split them if he runs for POTUS, given that a growing member of the GOP establishment want him gone, but he still controls the voter base. If he and DeSantis both run, you can bet the farm Trump will damage him as Trump can't be made out to be a loser yet again.
That's the best bet really. Trump wouldn't run as independent, he'd be guaranteed a loss and his ego couldn't handle that. But a primary with him and Desantis could do some damage to both of them, maybe enough to help an aging Biden if Biden decides to run because after a bloody Rep primary, no matter who won, some of the committed voters to one of them may sit out.