Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Not quite sure we are there yet, but getting very close. The odd thing is that all of this will get reversed when Putin leaves and they go Democratic.
Ukraine hit the air force base in Engels, which is a longer striking distance than Moscow would be. So they would be absolutely capable of launching an attack. It's unlikely to succeed, but the capability is there using one of their precious few Tu-141.
Well, if you look at a source like this you see it's a simple fact that the Ukraine war is a war between an imperialistic corrupt oligarchy and a peaceful corrupt oligarchy: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020
Then you see Germany ranked 9 (not perfect, but quite good) and Ukraine in rank 117, Russia in rank 129. Ukraine was almost as corrupt as Russia and only slowly improved (from 26 points in 2014 to 32 in 2021).
However the question one should maybe ask isn't whether Ukraine is corrupt (because it simply is), but how much of this was due to Russian influence and therefore how much the ongoing war did help Ukraine to get rid of corruption - or if it did make it worse. Reports I have seen indicate that the situation got better in this regard because there suddenly was leverage against oligarchs who have Russian ties.
I would give Russia nearly one decade post-Putin to rebuild its own reputation. Western countries will want guarantees and concrete foundations before the reversal is complete. For the record, that was how long it took Japan to rebuild their own reputation and then be back on the world economy after WW2, which is still incredible considering the situation in 1945.
Yeah agreed. It will be a bit rough once all this is over since Russia has never been Democratic and unlike eastern Europe, were entrenched in Communism for several more decades following Monarchy. If they do go Democratic once Putin falls, it will completely change the face of geopolitics and put a lot more pressure on China.
I think this is a photo op. It simultaneously helps enforce the narrative that Russia's survival is at stake, and dissuades eventual internal uprisings. The thing maybe doesn't even work. Or well, they could just be dumber than what we thought. It wouldn't be the first time.
Yeah you're right, it is a photo op no doubt designed to instill fear and reinforce the paranoia of foreign attack. Little do they know how small and desperate it looks from the outside.
There are too many pictures of that and the crane that put it on there to be a photo op.
"Top of mind for Ukraine side was durability of U.S. support following GOP takeover of the House. Burns emphasized the urgency of the moment on the battlefield and acknowledged that at some point assistance would be harder to come by, per sources."
I note the wiki page has been corrected at some point too. It was locked at some point last year after Russians won the edit battle, leading media the world over to spread their propaganda, using Wikipedia as a source.
You're taking the bolded so far that you keep likening Greece's corruption driven financial crisis with Ukraine facing a genocidal invasion. I think that's pretty offensive and ignorant. If you want to whine about the terms of Greece's bailout maybe make a thread for that, instead of abusing a conflict that has people dying by the tens of thousands for your little agenda.
From that article:
However, France and Germany broke the very rules that they had insisted on for everyone else.
Germany, the great European financial disciplinarian, was struggling because the cost of reunification with the former East Germany had left a big hole in its budget.
Mr Von Kyaw admits that Germany's government "really sinned".
Well, "not a real sin" he adds - Germany just "flexibilised the schedules."
"But when a big country does that, how can you afterwards impose on smaller countries, including Greece, to obey the rules?" he concedes.
And that affected the way Greece viewed the consequences of breaking the rules.
Ukraine is getting additional air surveillance radars: https://www.hensoldt.net/news/hensoldt-delivers-more-air-surveillance-radars-to-ukraine/
Two more (and brand new) units of the TRML-4D are going to be delivered in the next quarter. So far Ukraine has one of it (and will receive three more) as part of the first (and upcoming three) IRIS-T air defense systems.
It is unknown for which purpose exactly these two units will be used - it is likely to assume that they will be integrated with some air defense setup, but it's unclear which ones that could be.
Two more (and brand new) units of the TRML-4D are going to be delivered in the next quarter. So far Ukraine has one of it (and will receive three more) as part of the first (and upcoming three) IRIS-T air defense systems.
It is unknown for which purpose exactly these two units will be used - it is likely to assume that they will be integrated with some air defense setup, but it's unclear which ones that could be.
Will that ever happen though?
That seemed to be the plan with Yeltsin 30 years ago but the Russian people seem to be all too willing to accept a dictator.
My opinion is that Germans should not call other countries corrupt. It is racist. It is a lie. They have done it many times in their history, and it was wrong every time, they should stop doing it. Germany killed people with the justification that their group is "corrupt". Germany enlarged the Greek economic crisis by calling Greece corrupt. Germany actually earned money from this crisis.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/ec...d-2-9-billion-euros-from-greeces-debt-crisis/
This pattern has a very long history with Germany. Germany called Ukraine corrupt and did not accept them into NATO in 2008, while USA wanted them. Do you believe that this was the actual reason that Germany did not want Ukraine into NATO? At the same time, Germany was Putin's best friend, and Germany did not call Russia corrupt. Germany focuses on the "corruption" of others, only when they want a moral justification for advancing their own interests. They called the Jews "corrupt" and decided that this is a good reason to send them to Auschwitz. They called Ukraine "corrupt" and they decided this is a good reason to leave Ukraine unprotected from Putin. They called Greece "corrupt" and they decided this is a good reason to help destroy the Greek economy. History repeats itself.
It won’t be easy but it will happen eventually imo
Greece had a few 30-year old loans expiring between 2008 and 2010, and unfortunately it was very bad timing due to the world recession, and the interest rates to renew those were high. This created a (minor at the time) credit problem for Greece. Greece also had a huge housing sector because many people from the EU were buying houses in Greece, but then they stopped because of the 2008 crisis. So, the combination of these two problems created a very serious problem for the Greek banking system, they needed 30 billion in a relatively short time.
That was the beginning of the economic crisis for Greece in 2010.
Then Germany started calling Greece corrupt, asked for direct oversight, demanded that Greece should seek help from IMF, demanded that Greece changes their accounting system, and so on, and the crisis exploded. The Greek Prime Minister said that if this is the solution, then perhaps it is better to get out of the Eurozone. This was stupid, because it made the credit problem much worse. The next day the parliament voted him out! That was the start of the discussion for Grexit, long before the Brexit. This made a huge mess because everyone was scared about the future and all economic activity basically stopped. The banks did not give any loans any more and started demanding repayment for all old loans, using loopholes in the contracts. Everyday life for all small businesses in Greece was hell, and many small companies collapsed.
At the same time, USA was printing trillions. The 30 billion that Greece needed at the time was peanuts and the European Central Bank could easily provide with low interest loans in 2010. But Germany did not want to help, they wanted to punish Greece, and they did not want to let the Central Bank print money or give loans. And the Greek economy collapsed because this was going on for YEARS! And the cost of the final bailout was almost 10 times as much, because the crisis lasted 6 years. The 2010 bailout was only 30 billion. Germany has a GDP of 4 trillion, and they made a big fuss about 30 billion!!! And it was fecking LOANS, Germany did not give free money to Greece.
Of course, later the European Central Bank printed trillions, but this was after the Greek economy collapsed, it was too late for Greece.
(Sorry for the off topic, but many people do not have any idea what actually happened and we have the forum Germans that keep calling Greece corrupt... )
And the last off topic for me. Does Greece have corruption? Of course it has. Germany has corruption. USA has corruption. England has corruption. FIFA has corruption.
Does Greece have more corruption than Germany? I don't know. I don't think so, but really I don't know. The ex Chancellor of Germany works for Putin. Is this corruption? Of course it is, and I don't know any example in Greece worse than this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schröder
<<In March 2014, Schröder likened Russia's intervention in Crimea with NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, citing both cases as violations of international law and the UN Charter.[123][124] He further stated that there had been "unhappy developments" on the outskirts of the former Soviet Union since the end of the Cold War, leading Putin to develop justifiable "fears about being encircled".>>
Does Greece have more corruption than Germany? I don't know. I don't think so, but really I don't know. The ex Chancellor of Germany works for Putin. Is this corruption? Of course it is, and I don't know any example in Greece worse than this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schröder
<<In March 2014, Schröder likened Russia's intervention in Crimea with NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, citing both cases as violations of international law and the UN Charter.[123][124] He further stated that there had been "unhappy developments" on the outskirts of the former Soviet Union since the end of the Cold War, leading Putin to develop justifiable "fears about being encircled".>>
Not sure what your overarching point is from the last two posts ?
My point is that Germany has played a central, extremely negative role, in how we arrived at both those crises.
The topic we have been discussing on this thread for some time, is whether there are parallels between how Germany behaved in the Greek economic crisis, and how Germany behaved towards Ukraine in the past 20 years, including the past 12 months. I see clear parallels, our German friends in this forum said that there are no parallels because Greece is corrupt and created the crisis themselves (so it is fair that their economy has gone down 22%), while Ukraine was attacked. They called Greece "corrupt" multiple times, so I responded to that.
For a long time, Merkel was blaming Greece alone for the economic crisis. Our forum friends only parroted that. In a similar fashion, Merkel called Ukraine corrupt in 2008 and Schröder basically says that Ukraine and the West were to blame for Russia invading Crimea in 2014 (because he says it is a similar situation to Serbia and NATO).
Of course, Germany is not calling Ukraine corrupt anymore, and Germany does not call Greece corrupt anymore (and does not have any problems with ECB printing money anymore), but it's too late now, the damage has been done. But I'd like to see an official apology at some point.
I see your point, but I'm not sure if I see any value in pointing out one country as enabling what Putin has done to Ukraine. He managed to create a fairly broad reliance on Russian energy across Europe and beyond, and ultimately its him alone who is responsible for all of this. No one European country could've stopped him by not doing business with him.
Depends on your perspective. About corruption, I mean. And about the role of Germany. A Greek or a Ukrainian has a very different viewpoint. Because they have suffered. Here is an interesting article about Ukraine and Germany. I see many parallels between how Ukrainians view Germany, and how many Greeks view Germany.
And as I said in another post, Germany has a past, it is not the same as France. Germany has invaded and killed Greeks and Ukrainians, the grandparents of current citizens. (10% of the Greek population died under German occupation, mainly from famine. )
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88764
10.01.2023
Can Ukraine and Germany Overcome Their Disagreements Over Russia?
[...]
France and Germany consistently supported Russia’s involvement in European security. This was in part why Europeans were skeptical about the prospect of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Ukrainians saw this position as a sign of weakness, indecision, and even corruption. For their part, many Germans believed Ukraine had been exaggerating the Russian threat.
[...]
The Ukrainians responded with the narrative of “German betrayal,” which irritated Berlin.
[...]
Many Ukrainians hold former chancellor Merkel partly responsible for the start of the war. She is blamed for everything: the Nord Stream projects, calls to lift anti-Russian sanctions, and attempts to push Ukraine into signing the disadvantageous Minsk agreements. Her recent calls for negotiations with Russia have not improved her reputation.
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I think that's a fairly narrow interpretation of why the war started. Putin has always been all about neo imperialist conquest through ultra-nationalism, which means Ukraine was always going to be the target of his expansionist project. After all, when you're that corrupt, you have to distract the public from how bad it is domestically by providing them with a shiny new toy. There is nothing Germany or Greece, or even the US, could've done to avert this. But they do now have a chance of bringing Putin down by making sure Ukraine wins.
If Ukraine had joined NATO in 2008, as US wanted, we'd have no war today and Crimea would still be Ukrainian. Merkel is to blame for that.
And Sarkozy did not call Greece "corrupted". Merkel called Greece corrupted.
Germany is special.
Yeah but who is to say Putin would've allowed Ukraine to actually join NATO back then. For all we know, it would've led to the identical predicament we're in now. The US didn't have a particular affinity for protecting Ukraine back then, so there wouldn't have been any meaningful check on Putin had he decided he needed to invade Ukraine to prevent them from drifting off to the West.
Do you mean that Putin would invade Ukraine in 2008?
If Putin has always wanted Ukraine and thought it was about to join NATO (thereby putting a major Soviet block state on Russia's border under NATO) then he would've done something about it. He views it as a wayward part of the Soviet era Russian empire that can't be alllowed to ally with any western block.
Click the image for a full scrollable version
Here is an article from Germany's DW in 2008:
https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-affirms-german-stance-against-nato-expansion/a-3840175
"The outgoing administration of US President George W. Bush has proposed admitting them without waiting for them to qualify through a membership action plan."
US wanted to fast-track admission for both Ukraine and Georgia. It was very close to being done. And let's not forget that US provides the vast majority of NATO firepower and budget.
I don't think that Putin would be able to prepare an invasion in 2008. And I don't think he would ever attack a NATO country.
Compared to US, the Russian army in 2008 was a joke, actually the Russians have improved their military considerably since then! And Germany was not so dependent on Russian gas back then.
That was obviously never going to happen because Dubya left office the following year. Also, Putin literally invaded Georgia in 2008 using his usual BS excuse of protecting ethnic Russians. At the time, Brussels was setting up a NATO liaison office in Tblisi as a pretext to "increase cooperation", so we can easily see that Putin was more than prepared to squash any former Soviet states from jumping ship to the West. Ukraine, as far more important to Putin than Georgia, therefore wouldn't have been spared had they attempted the same.
I don't know if it is corruption or something else but Germany wasn't alone in tolerating Russian influence over the EU... And you'd be surprised about what politicians in other countries have done or said over the years... One of our current ministers (Niklas Wykman, he sits in the Swedish Government) supported Russia in its war against Georgia, he wrote the following (some of it with another close politician to him back then -Rola Brentlin-.. she now works for Abramovich):
"Russia is protecting a small population, of around 70,000 individuals, against an aggressor with superior military capabilities, in this case, Georgia."
"This time it is not about Russia or Georgia, but about a small country whose freedom has been restricted by Georgian troops. The action that should be condemned is Georgia's invasion and the world should support South Ossetia's independence.”
Of course we all accepted Nord Stream... Not only Sweden but even Denmark, the country that usually follows the US in all big decisions, approved Nord Stream 2 going through its waters.
Regarding the issue of Greece's bailout and austerity measures, I recall no resistance from our leaders towards Merkel's strategy back then. Most EU nations agreed with Germany's approach...
Yes, in many decisions in the EU, countries just follow Germany, because it is the richest country and the most populous in the EU. And that's why Germany has the greatest responsibility.
It is understandable that you in Sweden (or any other country) only read about Greece once a while, but understandably it wasn't too important for you personally, and you could not notice a difference between Merkel and other leaders. After all, the biggest news is when all the EU leaders make an announcement together. However, for us in Greece, this crisis was the main news, for years, and yes there was a huge difference between Sarkozy and Merkel. For example, read this from March 6, 2010.
https://www.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-46705220100306
Unfortunately, what happened in practice is not what Sarkozy says above, mainly because Merkel wanted to punish Greece. The whole problem could have ended back then, in March 2010, but it didn't, it became bigger and bigger, it lasted for years, because Germany did not want to solve it.
Now about Nord Stream, well... again, we have no idea what deals our leaders were making. For example, did you know that Nord Stream 2 was in Merkel's constituency (Mecklenburg-West Pomerania)? Was this a coincidence? Did you know this before? I didn't. Read the following article. Did anyone discuss all that before the war? Of course not, they just followed the Germans. There is a large number of people who made a lot of money, and there was a lot of corruption and deals. We know very little about how these decisions were made.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/world/europe/germany-russia-nord-stream-pipeline.html
Shadowy Arm of a German State Helped Russia Finish Nord Stream 2
The threat of U.S. sanctions jeopardized completion of a second direct gas pipeline from Russia. So Gazprom and German officials concocted a phony climate foundation to get the job done.
[...]
Mr. Damm and other lawmakers are drawing up a list of witnesses that could include not just Ms. Schwesig but two former chancellors, Ms. Merkel and Mr. Schröder.
But he worries the delays mean the investigation may not conclude before the end of the legislative term in 2026. Should that happen, the investigation would automatically expire.