Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Bepi said:
At this stage, a slowrolled escalation bringing more and more powerful systems to Ukraine is the only apt strategy, yet going beyond 2023 seems just unsustainable for the US and Europe, especially if China raises their ante in Taiwan? It just seems a scarily concerted move, with Russia testing the West before China strikes, all the autocrats out there watching with a wry smile… hopefully, this attrition war will freeze into sort of the good, the bad, the ugly tree-way gun pointing without actually opening more fronts, yet de-escalation is needed sooner than later.
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Its around 5% of their military budget that the US is using to support Ukraine and as far as military spending goes, its just about the best money they have ever spent. Helping to dismantle the forces of an adversary while not risking a single US sole. Its more than sustainable, no matter what China does. It's also a deterrent to China in itself, showing no aggression of this nature can prevail.
 
Simbo said:
Its around 5% of their military budget that the US is using to support Ukraine and as far as military spending goes, its just about the best money they have ever spent. Helping to dismantle the forces of an adversary while not risking a single US sole. Its more than sustainable, no matter what China does. It's also a deterrent to China in itself, showing no aggression of this nature can prevail.
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True. You just hope most Republicans will think the same for a couple of more years at least.
 
Simbo said:
Its around 5% of their military budget that the US is using to support Ukraine and as far as military spending goes, its just about the best money they have ever spent. Helping to dismantle the forces of an adversary while not risking a single US sole. Its more than sustainable, no matter what China does. It's also a deterrent to China in itself, showing no aggression of this nature can prevail.
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And while the US is always ready for war, the situation in other countries is different.

Looking at Germany suddenly the combat readiness of the Bundeswehr is a topic people care about (which is unusual and it is as bad as you expect under that neglect) and the military industry is also investing in production facilities. The Ukraine war is causing a paradigm shift and causing new weapon factories to be built, new production lines created and getting rid of old stuff (by sending it to Ukraine).

If China doesn't strike right now before this paradigm shift is implemented they will have to face a much stronger Western World then before and I don't think they like that.

Russia struggling in Ukraine while the West does just deliver a few weapons this long is about the worst result possible for China.
 
Ramshock said:
If Putin dies, will this end? Any Russians in here who have an opinion on this?
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It’s really hard to predict. On one hand, it’s a personalist dictatorship and he is the sole constant in his entire ideology for the lack of a better word. But too many people are involved in this with their hands being covered in blood and they still hold all the power (police, army, fsb, government etc.).

More often then not those things end with a bloody internal struggle and the only chance is that someone relatively clean comes on top to make a deal with the West to save the crumbling economy and end the war (as it’s killing Russia). The bad thing is that Putin made sure that everyone pledged their support for the war so it’s going to be extremely hard to find an influential figure that is going to be able to start those negotiations.

That is if Putin dies before the war is completely lost and we’re not talking about an immediate revolution with someone like Navalny (the only notable opposition figure) coming to power.

P.S. the optimistic prognosis is that during the internal struggle between, say, the army, fsb, government and other forces no one is likely to be able to have enough resources to keep the fight going both back at home & in Ukraine
 
Fitting to this discussion, the German minister of defense is convinced that a world without Putin would be better.

Yes I know Bild is like the Sun, but still some surprisingly clear and strong statements made in Kyiv:
https://m.bild.de/politik/internati...ear-of-a-nuclear-str-82829324.bildMobile.html

Probably was Scholz' best decision to select Pistorius who surged to be Germany's most popular politician just days after he got this job.
 
harms said:
It’s really hard to predict. On one hand, it’s a personalist dictatorship and he is the sole constant in his entire ideology for the lack of a better word. But too many people are involved in this with their hands being covered in blood and they still hold all the power (police, army, fsb, government etc.).

More often then not those things end with a bloody internal struggle and the only chance is that someone relatively clean comes on top to make a deal with the West to save the crumbling economy and end the war (as it’s killing Russia). The bad thing is that Putin made sure that everyone pledged their support for the war so it’s going to be extremely hard to find an influential figure that is going to be able to start those negotiations.

That is if Putin dies before the war is completely lost and we’re not talking about an immediate revolution with someone like Navalny (the only notable opposition figure) coming to power.

P.S. the optimistic prognosis is that during the internal struggle between, say, the army, fsb, government and other forces no one is likely to be able to have enough resources to keep the fight going both back at home & in Ukraine
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Very informative post and good to hear from a Russian person on the topic.
 
Nine years later, and after a major war in Europe, we are still far from justice...


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/world/europe/putin-flight-mh17-missile.html

Investigators say Putin likely approved the supply of the missile system that brought down Flight MH17.

A Dutch-led team said it had suspended its investigation because of insufficient evidence and rules that prevent new prosecutions.

There are “strong indications” that President Vladimir V. Putin decided to supply the antiaircraft missile system that Russia-backed separatists used to shoot down a Malaysia Airlines jet above eastern Ukraine in 2014, a Dutch-led international team found.

But the team said on Wednesday that it had suspended its criminal investigation because of insufficient evidence and immunity privileges that prevent new prosecutions in the crash of Flight MH17, which killed all 298 people aboard.
 
goalscholes said:
Hopefully the latter is pretence for the former.
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Indeed.
PM Sunak has instructed the Defence Secretary Ben Wallace to come up with a plan as to which fighter jets the UK could supply to Ukraine.
The RAF currently operates 2 fast jet types.
Eurofighter Typhoon and F35. It has unfortunately retired its Tornado fleet. And has very limited BAE Hawks.
Eurofighter Typhoon would be highly capable in both air to air and air to ground and would not require foreign approval.
The RAF does operate a number of Tranche 1 Typhoon which are only air to air capable and are soon to be retired.
So if the UK does agree to supply fast jets to Ukraine, these could be the candidates.
F35 would be hugely capable but the RAF only has a limited number and would probably require US approval.
 
Ramshock said:
If Putin dies, will this end? Any Russians in here who have an opinion on this?
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Yes, it will end. Evidence from the Soviet Union (which is not very different from Russia today) suggests that the new Head of State will blame Putin for everything, and that will be the end of this story. Everyone else involved was "just following orders". There is absolutely no advantage for a new President to continue the war.
 
Buster15 said:
Indeed.
PM Sunak has instructed the Defence Secretary Ben Wallace to come up with a plan as to which fighter jets the UK could supply to Ukraine.
The RAF currently operates 2 fast jet types.
Eurofighter Typhoon and F35. It has unfortunately retired its Tornado fleet. And has very limited BAE Hawks.
Eurofighter Typhoon would be highly capable in both air to air and air to ground and would not require foreign approval.
The RAF does operate a number of Tranche 1 Typhoon which are only air to air capable and are soon to be retired.
So if the UK does agree to supply fast jets to Ukraine, these could be the candidates.
F35 would be hugely capable but the RAF only has a limited number and would probably require US approval.
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I hope that UK is brave enough to approve a fighter jet for Ukraine, any modern fighter jet in any quantities.

This will open the path for the rest of NATO to do the same. The Netherlands have already said that they do not exclude it. Someone must be the first. It is embarrassing that Biden was not the first to offer F-16s to Ukraine. I like Biden, I voted for him and I'll vote for him again if he is a candidate, but unfortunately, the truth is that he is an old man, quite conservative in his decisions. He messed up with Afghanistan, he messed up with the Chinese balloon, and he is too slow in his help to Ukraine (but it could be worse, much worse).
 
Buster15 said:
Eurofighter Typhoon would be highly capable in both air to air and air to ground and would not require foreign approval.
The RAF does operate a number of Tranche 1 Typhoon which are only air to air capable and are soon to be retired.
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The Tranche 1 Eurofighter seems to be the best option. It is going to be phased out soon so it's not going to create a too big capability gap, it is still a currently produced product line which allows easily upgrading the Ukrainian Air Force later and it makes it possible that other countries (looking at Germany which also is replacing its Tranche 1 by Tranche 4) could join the UK here.

Problem are spare parts which aren't produced any longer so it's not possible to keep the full numbers operational, especially not if used in real battle situations. But still Ukraine could realistically get 20-30 planes of that model I think.
 
To be taken with a massive pinch of salt given Hersh's history

 
frostbite said:
I hope that UK is brave enough to approve a fighter jet for Ukraine, any modern fighter jet in any quantities.

This will open the path for the rest of NATO to do the same. The Netherlands have already said that they do not exclude it. Someone must be the first. It is embarrassing that Biden was not the first to offer F-16s to Ukraine. I like Biden, I voted for him and I'll vote for him again if he is a candidate, but unfortunately, the truth is that he is an old man, quite conservative in his decisions. He messed up with Afghanistan, he messed up with the Chinese balloon, and he is too slow in his help to Ukraine (but it could be worse, much worse).
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Will Sunak be brave enough. He has said that nothing is off the table.
And what is the difference between supplying Tanks and supplying Typhoon fighter jets. I guess the answer is that a Tank can be destroyed and nobody would take that much notice.
But a fighter jet being shot down potentially over enemy held territory is another thing.
 
stefan92 said:
The Tranche 1 Eurofighter seems to be the best option. It is going to be phased out soon so it's not going to create a too big capability gap, it is still a currently produced product line which allows easily upgrading the Ukrainian Air Force later and it makes it possible that other countries (looking at Germany which also is replacing its Tranche 1 by Tranche 4) could join the UK here.

Problem are spare parts which aren't produced any longer so it's not possible to keep the full numbers operational, especially not if used in real battle situations. But still Ukraine could realistically get 20-30 planes of that model I think.
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Good post
 
the hea said:
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Tranche 1 Typhoon were essentially an Austere version. In particular radar and weapons fit. And it would take time to train Ukrainian pilots to be able to operate Typhoon.
But they would be a very useful addition and a pretty decent air defence jet.
 
VorZakone said:
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Isn't it clear that RA would not be able to prepare like last year with all the equipment losses? That does not mean that the offensive is not on the way. Not that journalists would know what UA is preparing.

But, yeah, same guys probably said RA was not going to invade them last year, ironically...
 
Looks like Prigozhin has been put in to place by Russian MoD as Wagner is terminating the recruitment of prisoners:
 
Excerpt from a military analysis of the type of jets Ukraine needs:

The Royal Air Force had exactly the right kind of airframe for such a task and had enough in stock to be able to offer some away to a friendly nation in need - the Tornado GR4.

Unfortunately, all of those aircraft were retired from service four years ago to save money.
 
Buster15 said:
Come on Roger. Stick to music, even though you have to mime to your records when performing live.
You are embarrassed yourself.
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It saddens me that I once paid to watch him. How deep he has fallen.
 
Raoul said:
To be taken with a massive pinch of salt given Hersh's history

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A friend send me this. Article in Croatian papers is just repeating that that journo has discovered American divers did the damage and Peskov said that story should be covered more. As I understand source of course is some unnamed source. Sounds legit. Was done in 2021 so goes nicely in hand with theories of US provoking the war and poor Russians just couldn't not go into Ukraine. They really didnt want to but were provoked.
 
https://app.handelsblatt.com/untern...w-ueber-den-export-des-panthers/28970680.html

I doubt that will really happen, but news is news... Rheinmetall is in talks about selling the KF51 Panther MBT to Ukraine. So far only a prototype of that exists, but Rheinmetall claims that they could start deliveries in 15 to 18 months (so summer next year).

The Panther is an industry initiative to create a successor to the Leopard 2, it rivals the government funded MGCS program which is a German/French cooperation led by Nexter and KMW. Rheinmetall is a junior partner in that program and apparently unhappy with it's role and the overall progress.

We have seen something similar before - Rheinmetall was involved in the state-funded and quite slow and expensive development of the Puma IFV and then created the KF41 Lynx as an IFV for the international market. The KF51 Panther in a way can be seen as its big brother.

So on one hand I doubt that this is going to happen, on the other we have already seen that Germany isn't shy to promise bleeding edge systems as soon as the general type of weapon system has got green light (IRIS-T SLM, RCH-155 as the successor to the PzH-2000)

 
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Real Name said:
A friend send me this. Article in Croatian papers is just repeating that that journo has discovered American divers did the damage and Peskov said that story should be covered more. As I understand source of course is some unnamed source. Sounds legit. Was done in 2021 so goes nicely in hand with theories of US provoking the war and poor Russians just couldn't not go into Ukraine. They really didnt want to but were provoked.
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I've also been reading about this guy's attempts to discredit the Magnitsky Act, seems like he just works for Russian Intelligence.
 
stefan92 said:
https://app.handelsblatt.com/untern...w-ueber-den-export-des-panthers/28970680.html

I doubt that will really happen, but news is news... Rheinmetall is in talks about selling the KF51 Panther MBT to Ukraine. So far only a prototype of that exists, but Rheinmetall claims that they could start deliveries in 15 to 18 months (so summer next year).

The Panther is an industry initiative to create a successor to the Leopard 2, it rivals the government funded MGCS program which is a German/French cooperation led by Nexter and KMW. Rheinmetall is a junior partner in that program and apparently unhappy with it's role and the overall progress.

We have seen something similar before - Rheinmetall was involved in the state-funded and quite slow and expensive development of the Puma IFV and then created the KF41 Lynx as an IFV for the international market. The KF51 Panther in a way can be seen as its big brother.

So on one hand I doubt that this is going to happen, on the other we have already seen that Germany isn't shy to promise bleeding edge systems as soon as the general type of weapon system has got green light (IRIS-T SLM, RCH-155 as the successor to the PzH-2000)

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Once this is over I expect Ukraine's Armed Forces to be updated with the all the very latest stuff, so they are a major world power. It will be important to deter any future occurrence and maintain security in the area, whether they join NATO or not.

Planning for this should have already begun, on top of aiding the current situation. So suggestions like this I think are more planning for that time period, as I suspect the abrams supply mostly is.
 
stefan92 said:
https://app.handelsblatt.com/untern...w-ueber-den-export-des-panthers/28970680.html

I doubt that will really happen, but news is news... Rheinmetall is in talks about selling the KF51 Panther MBT to Ukraine. So far only a prototype of that exists, but Rheinmetall claims that they could start deliveries in 15 to 18 months (so summer next year).

The Panther is an industry initiative to create a successor to the Leopard 2, it rivals the government funded MGCS program which is a German/French cooperation led by Nexter and KMW. Rheinmetall is a junior partner in that program and apparently unhappy with it's role and the overall progress.

We have seen something similar before - Rheinmetall was involved in the state-funded and quite slow and expensive development of the Puma IFV and then created the KF41 Lynx as an IFV for the international market. The KF51 Panther in a way can be seen as its big brother.

So on one hand I doubt that this is going to happen, on the other we have already seen that Germany isn't shy to promise bleeding edge systems as soon as the general type of weapon system has got green light (IRIS-T SLM, RCH-155 as the successor to the PzH-2000)

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Let's hope it's better built than the first Panther.
 
The hatred for Zelensky on twitter is unreal. But I guess that is to be expected since its the favourite nest of Russian bots and bloody idiots. I mean Ukraine has defied all odds, you'd think he deserves some bloody praise.
 
Gehrman said:
The hatred for Zelensky on twitter is unreal. But I guess that is to be expected since its the favourite nest of Russian bots and bloody idiots. I mean Ukraine has defied all odds, you'd think he deserves some bloody praise.
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It has to be the latest Russian bot campaign because the general sentiment about Ukraine is pretty positive on most non Russian controlled social media.
 
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