And that would not even tickle China. call in ambassadors and political blahblah, but I agree that the west would lose more than china in an economic war, so nothing tangible would be done
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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And that would not even tickle China. call in ambassadors and political blahblah, but I agree that the west would lose more than china in an economic war, so nothing tangible would be done
There's no winning hand when your poker partner is a complete loser, like Russia is. China must be regretting all those warm words ahead of Russian's invasion. Arming Russia wouldn't materially affect the outcome of the war, it's not in a region of Chinese interest, it's a very long supply line, a bunch of Russians losing a war while using the cream of Chinese military tech isn't a great look, and it would piss off all its biggest customers at a time when the Chinese economy is weak.
If the US wanted this thing to end fast, and became less concerned about the risks of escalation because they felt they had to respond to an escalatory threat from China, then they could do that. And that is something China has to think about.
All China can do is try to play the statesman, recoup a bit of prestige where they can, and wait for it to be over - which is pretty much what they are doing. There's no gain for China in this thing continuing for longer than it needs to. And there's no gain in doubling down on being on the losing side.
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They are still on it. Twitter thread from today about it:
Both the west and China are economically interdependent, so it would hurt China just as much. What would hurt them more is the west publicly cozying up to Taiwan. See how they freaked out when Pelosi visited recently.
Things like her visit, the COVID-19 lab leak, balloon stuff, and so on seemed to intensify the whole bad relationship thing recently. Xi had recently made himself unremovable, and he would not back down to appear weak.
The best way to irritate the West is to send weapons to Russia to demonstrate that he can exactly do that.
Personally, I believe that China is becoming increasingly entrapped by political pressures, and that it will retaliate somehow, which cannot be good for anyone.
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The difference is that democracies will suffer most than an autocratic china that can suppress and manipulate their population.
Obviously China has to lose a lot, that is why I doubt they would go for it at least very overtly (who knows helping with munition or microchips that might be difficult to trace), but the west would have way to lose. Is not the same to piss off accommodated middle class losing their jobs in a democracy that piss off people that they just got out of poverty so they had a hard life in a repressive regime.
Pelosi was a PR stunt and China couldn't care less. Another thing is that they need to dramatize it, of course and they milked it and spun it but in reality was unimportant. They know US and the west has interests in Taiwan, the US and the west knows that China will eventually try something (military or not) in Taiwan and it is just a matter of time. The rest are theatrics
I would argue that the Chinese leaning in to help Putin was a balance to their perceptions of US support for Taiwan, most recently during the Pelosi visit but even after when many more members of Congress visited. So there is clearly something that can be used against the Chinese, just as they probaby believe their support for Putin can be used against the west in Ukraine.
New aid package tomorrow according to Reuters. Unclear how big. Details will follow.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us...ackage-ukraine-friday-white-house-2023-03-02/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us...ackage-ukraine-friday-white-house-2023-03-02/
I remember that. Quite epic.
Meanwhile, over at CIA...
Take this with a grain of salt, but apparently there were explosions in Kolomna (Oblast Moscow!):
https://m.dzen.ru/news/story/Vozle_...031b773edcdc569138d5f2a2d8a7566c?issue_tld=ru
Two days ago it was reported that a Ukrainian drone crashed nearby, so maybe now another one hit its target.
And now on to speculation what could have been the possible target: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KB_Mashinostroyeniya
If this should be confirmed it simply means that the Kremlin is now in striking range for Ukrainian drones.
https://m.dzen.ru/news/story/Vozle_...031b773edcdc569138d5f2a2d8a7566c?issue_tld=ru
Two days ago it was reported that a Ukrainian drone crashed nearby, so maybe now another one hit its target.
And now on to speculation what could have been the possible target: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KB_Mashinostroyeniya
If this should be confirmed it simply means that the Kremlin is now in striking range for Ukrainian drones.
I think China is playing this situation for two things.
1) They want to show that they can decide whatever they want with this whole war and not cave in to the West's demands. They have their own terms.
2). They would probably support Putin a bit, not because they want Russia to win but because it will make life difficult for the West for a little longer. It's also a bit strategic because China may not want Putin to be destroyed right away so that the West doesn't focus entirely on them (while they continue to build their economy and military), and Xi can get some cheap resources from Putin while negotiating trade in this current situation. Hence, the longer this current situation continues, the better for Xi.
The best defended airspace in the world!
leaning into Russia is something that had been happening for a while and that is a result of the trade war that Trump started and Biden continued, the semiconductors war and etc...China is a threat to US and US is the stopper for China so tensions are inevitable. Taiwan is there for obvious reasons, but China only need to bid its time. Pelosi went to Taiwan as a PR stunt for the American market and China dramatized it for the Chinese market, nothing else.
If china helping Russia would have as only response publicly warming up with Taiwan as you propose, I would consider it, in my opinion, a poor response because it would not change absolutely anything as it is well known that is already like this and it would be repeating Biden's words about supporting Taiwan and Pelosis visit. Just one more PR stunt, while the effects of China helping Russia would have real consequences
Utter incompetence...
I know that Russian air defenses already saw its share of inglorious moments over the years, but this has to be a new low by their own standards.
Remove the limiters to what weapons the West sells to Taiwan. They've been waiting for a while to be allowed to upgrade their air force. Tell the Chinese that the F-35 and Eurofighters are on the table for Taiwan if Russia receives weapons from China.
A €100 drone lands on a ~€300m plane after a long and slow flight in enemy territory without any problems. Just take some explosives with you next time.
Exactly. Taiwan is rich and can afford a big investment in military because of their semiconductor industry. Just tell Xi that Taiwan gets all the new shiny toys if we see one chinese weapon in Ukraine. People like Putin and Xi only understand real threats. Every appeasement policy is seen as weakness by them.
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I remember we laughed when they put the defensive missile systems on the rooftops in Moscow but now it makes sense. Most likely you could easily fly past 500km of Russia's land straight to Moscow if you have the capability...Apparently that is exactly what they did
A €100 drone lands on a ~€300m plane after a long and slow flight in enemy territory without any problems. Just take some explosives with you next time.
That's easier to say than actually do. How quickly can all this equipment be built?
A €100 drone lands on a ~€300m plane after a long and slow flight in enemy territory without any problems. Just take some explosives with you next time.
Exactly. Taiwan is rich and can afford a big investment in military because of their semiconductor industry. Just tell Xi that Taiwan gets all the new shiny toys if we see one chinese weapon in Ukraine. People like Putin and Xi only understand real threats. Every appeasement policy is seen as weakness by them.
My, well, not friend but an acquaintance, I guess, who lives in Kolomna, also heard it.
Interesting, is this the beginning of a new stage of this war?
yeah seems like it. Here is another video, apparently this time from a suicide drone. We can see much more snow now, so it was filmed on different days. Maybe the first drone was used to locate the plane and then the other one carried explosives later.
Look at where they built those trenches. As if they expect an amphibious landing.
Some were stating that the first drone was used to lock GPS coordinates on the plane / airfield in the post I first made.
A €100 drone lands on a ~€300m plane after a long and slow flight in enemy territory without any problems. Just take some explosives with you next time.
Exactly. Taiwan is rich and can afford a big investment in military because of their semiconductor industry. Just tell Xi that Taiwan gets all the new shiny toys if we see one chinese weapon in Ukraine. People like Putin and Xi only understand real threats. Every appeasement policy is seen as weakness by them.
Do that and youll see a F-35 replica low cost in the chinese airforce in a few years. Sometimes we forget that not all taiwan is anti china
Lavrov just keeps on giving. Soon he will demand the Nobel Peace Prize for Russia.
I think at this late stage, its the so called diplomatic ones like Lavrov and Medvedev who have the most to prove to Putin to ensure he doesn't freeze them out, which is why we're seeing such bizarre comments from both.
Yeah he is definetly not insane and probably just fears open windows. The crazier his image is in the west, the safer he is in Russia. It's still bizarre as hell. He probably had only one thought after hearing the audience laughing. "If I smile, I'm dead. Must not smile"
One year in, and I have two newbie questions.
How does Russia have this much equipment?
Most European armies have nowhere near this amount. But does the US have a similar stockpile of military equipment and materiel?
How does Russia have this much equipment?
Most European armies have nowhere near this amount. But does the US have a similar stockpile of military equipment and materiel?
Because they were an incredibly militarized nation from back in the Soviet days and continued building on that during Putin's time, which would explain the random ages of their weapons and logistics (shells from the cold war etc)
It still strikes me as unbelievable. The British Army seems so small and underresourced in comparison. I just cannot fathom a situation where a nation loses 3k tanks in a year and they can still field more. Thanks for the explainer.
The US certainly does and it's current military is pretty big