Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
Only the former is the case. If Putin wanted to end the war by leaving Ukrainian land, he could do it today and the Ukrainians would stop fighting.
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Well, Putin will have to be convinced that it is in his best interest to end the war and leave Ukrainian land. By how much Russian technology and army sucks (according to Twitter), it is amazing they are still in it.

This war will end when NATO decides it:
- Boots on the ground, all in. Russia loses.
- Pull out the support. Ukraine loses.

Risk of doing the first thing: nuclear war and many (maybe all of us dead).
Risk of doing the second thing: Russians getting stronger with gaining massive area of new resources and getting rich of supplying Europe and the World with it. Eventually Russians would be top dog in the World and that World might look very different from the one we live in right now.

Yeah, dire situation.
 
ExoduS said:
Well, Putin will have to be convinced that it is in his best interest to end the war and leave Ukrainian land. By how much Russian technology and army sucks (according to Twitter), it is amazing they are still in it.

This war will end when NATO decides it:
- Boots on the ground, all in. Russia loses.
- Pull out the support. Ukraine loses.

Risk of doing the first thing: nuclear war and many (maybe all of us dead).
Risk of doing the second thing: Russians getting stronger with gaining massive area of new resources and getting rich of supplying Europe and the World with it. Eventually Russians would be top dog in the World and that World might look very different from the one we live in right now.

Yeah, dire situation.
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I think he knows what a massive mistake he’s made by invading. Prior to the invasion, he could’ve avoided conflict and avoided all the sanctions and impact on his economy. Now he’s stuck in a place where he feels he can’t pull back because he would become vulnerable to domestic ultranationalists who may try to move on him, while he’s still not able to actually ever win in Ukraine.
 
Raoul said:
I think he knows what a massive mistake he’s made by invading.
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Pretty sure he doesn't see the invasion itself as a mistake, but rather the HOW. He will never accept a western democratic system in the former soviet states bordering russia, because this system is a direct threat to his power. So in his eyes, the invasion was necessary.
But he underestimated Ukraine's will to fight and our (western world) will to support Ukraine. He tested both in 2014 and nothing indicated that it would be different in 2022. In hindsight, he would either have waited a few more years to strenghten and modernize his military (especially the drone warfare), or simply called it a war from the start, mobilized 1-2 million men instead of roughly 250.000 and just overrun any position of Ukraine's forces in the early days, not caring about casualties at all. With this tactic, he would have lost less men than today's figure and would have taken all the big cities in eastern Ukraine including Kiev probably. The hesitant "special operation" approach was the key mistake here in my opinion from his point of view, because nobody's buying it anyways 1 year after the invasion.
 
Raoul said:
There are reports it was manipulated by Russians (or whoever) to reflect lower numbers
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I think the numbers in that image are not manipulated, manipulated numbers have been figuring in Russian telegram channels


To me those numbers make sense if we assume that "casualties" or "eliminated personnel" numbers (~200k, was a bit less at the time the leaked documents were supposedly created) provided by Ukraine and UK/US intel would include both deaths and injuries forcing someone out of combat at least for some time. Numbers would match quite nicely for that 1:3 death to wounded ratio that has been mentioned before.

For the leak itself, I am not sure how much damage does it actually do. It doesn't seem to have anything we either didn't already know, or didn't have a good idea about from other sources. I don't see anything that Russian spies wouldn't have known before. They have their own extensive spying network after all. Stuff like "US spying on their allies" has already been known forever.
 
ExoduS said:
Well, Putin will have to be convinced that it is in his best interest to end the war and leave Ukrainian land. By how much Russian technology and army sucks (according to Twitter), it is amazing they are still in it.

This war will end when NATO decides it:
- Boots on the ground, all in. Russia loses.
- Pull out the support. Ukraine loses.

Risk of doing the first thing: nuclear war and many (maybe all of us dead).
Risk of doing the second thing: Russians getting stronger with gaining massive area of new resources and getting rich of supplying Europe and the World with it. Eventually Russians would be top dog in the World and that World might look very different from the one we live in right now.

Yeah, dire situation.
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Russians will be top dogs in the world only in minds of deluded Serbian people.

Even with a fully conquered Ukraine, they would be nowhere near China, let alone the US.
 
ExoduS said:
Well, Putin will have to be convinced that it is in his best interest to end the war and leave Ukrainian land. By how much Russian technology and army sucks (according to Twitter), it is amazing they are still in it.

This war will end when NATO decides it:
- Boots on the ground, all in. Russia loses.
- Pull out the support. Ukraine loses.

Risk of doing the first thing: nuclear war and many (maybe all of us dead).
Risk of doing the second thing: Russians getting stronger with gaining massive area of new resources and getting rich of supplying Europe and the World with it. Eventually Russians would be top dog in the World and that World might look very different from the one we live in right now.

Yeah, dire situation.
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Don't see any possible scenario in which Russia is ever 'top dog.'
 
ExoduS said:
Well, Putin will have to be convinced that it is in his best interest to end the war and leave Ukrainian land. By how much Russian technology and army sucks (according to Twitter), it is amazing they are still in it.

This war will end when NATO decides it:
- Boots on the ground, all in. Russia loses.
- Pull out the support. Ukraine loses.

Risk of doing the first thing: nuclear war and many (maybe all of us dead).
Risk of doing the second thing: Russians getting stronger with gaining massive area of new resources and getting rich of supplying Europe and the World with it. Eventually Russians would be top dog in the World and that World might look very different from the one we live in right now.

Yeah, dire situation.
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How would winning in Ukraine make Russia 'top dog in the world'?

And why shouldn't Ukraine win if Western support continues?
 
ExoduS said:
Well, Putin will have to be convinced that it is in his best interest to end the war and leave Ukrainian land. By how much Russian technology and army sucks (according to Twitter), it is amazing they are still in it.

This war will end when NATO decides it:
- Boots on the ground, all in. Russia loses.
- Pull out the support. Ukraine loses.

Risk of doing the first thing: nuclear war and many (maybe all of us dead).
Risk of doing the second thing: Russians getting stronger with gaining massive area of new resources and getting rich of supplying Europe and the World with it. Eventually Russians would be top dog in the World and that World might look very different from the one we live in right now.

Yeah, dire situation.
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Neither of those things are realistic possibilities.
 
Zehner said:
How would winning in Ukraine make Russia 'top dog in the world'?

And why shouldn't Ukraine win if Western support continues?
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Russia winning would be unprecedented in modern history. Consequences of that will be significant.

Ukraine winning with western support only is possible I guess, but unlikely. At this point a compromise will have to be made and neither side will like it.
 
ExoduS said:
Russia winning would be unprecedented in modern history. Consequences of that will be significant.

Ukraine winning with western support only is possible I guess, but unlikely. At this point a compromise will have to be made and neither side will like it.
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What would be the consequences? More unreplenishable resources will hardly make a country a global power again.

And the West can in principal continue the current level of support for far longer than Russia can continue the war at the current costs.
 
Zehner said:
What would be the consequences? More unreplenishable resources will hardly make a country a global power again.

And the West can in principal continue the current level of support for far longer than Russia can continue the war at the current costs.
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I think there are still quite a few twists and turns left. China is a massive wildcard that is still to play it's hand. If they decide to provide a military support for Russia, I am not so sure how would that "the West can in principal continue the current level of support for far longer than Russia can continue the war at the current costs" hold. As of now it looks like they are very comfortable playing a spectator role but if the time comes and they have to choose side (especially if the situation with Taiwan keeps escalating), I think it would be a bit naive to expect them to choose ours.
 
Zehner said:
What would be the consequences? More unreplenishable resources will hardly make a country a global power again.

And the West can in principal continue the current level of support for far longer than Russia can continue the war at the current costs.
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The consequences would be that Europe would go back to being dependent on Russian resources. Ukraine was supposed to alleviate, perhaps even fully replace, some of the energy exported to Europe.

This war is fought by people and people are a finate resource. Weapons are for sure inflicting heavy damage on the Russians, however so far I'm not convinced it will be enough for Ukraine to win. By win I mean restoring all territories occupied by Russians.
 
dove said:
I think there are still quite a few twists and turns left. China is a massive wildcard that is still to play it's hand. If they decide to provide a military support for Russia, I am not so sure how would that "the West can in principal continue the current level of support for far longer than Russia can continue the war at the current costs" hold. As of now it looks like they are very comfortable playing a spectator role but if the time comes and they have to choose side (especially if the situation with Taiwan keeps escalating), I think it would be a bit naive to expect them to choose ours.
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Yes, China getting involved in the manner you describe would be a gamechanger. But there are lots of ifs in the scenario you assumed. China would have to go all in for that to happen and currently, they are hesitating to provide even the most basic lethal support because even that would lead to diplomatic outrage.

ExoduS said:
The consequences would be that Europe would go back to being dependent on Russian resources. Ukraine was supposed to alleviate, perhaps even fully replace, some of the energy exported to Europe.

This war is fought by people and people are a finate resource. Weapons are for sure inflicting heavy damage on the Russians, however so far I'm not convinced it will be enough for Ukraine to win. By win I mean restoring all territories occupied by Russians.
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Why would Europe be dependent on Russian resources again? Europe has made it through the most critical phase already and gas prices aren't that high anymore. Germany even sits on more LNG than it needs. Russia has lost Europe as a major trading partner for good.

Your perspective on the war might be correct in the short term but long term, how is Russia supposed to keep this up? Even if Ukraine is losing as many soldiers as Russia, an attacking force always needs more of them. And it will become increasingly hard to replenish ammunition, weapons, food, etc. for the invading forces given the toll the war and the sanctions are having on the Russian economy. Russia has been saving money for almost a decade in anticipation of this and they sat on unbelievable stocks of Soviet weapons but still struggled with the logistics. Currently they're burning through these savings and stocks, what will they do once they've run dry?
 
Carolina Red said:
A modern Operation Mincemeat?
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Yeah, you just never know. I read a book recently called On Intelligence, it covers the subject from Greek Roman times all the way to modern day espionage. The stuff that goes down behind the scenes is mind blowing, bluff and counter bluff. Makes me question everything.
 
Zehner said:
Yes, China getting involved in the manner you describe would be a gamechanger. But there are lots of ifs in the scenario you assumed. China would have to go all in for that to happen and currently, they are hesitating to provide even the most basic lethal support because even that would lead to diplomatic outrage.



Why would Europe be dependent on Russian resources again? Europe has made it through the most critical phase already and gas prices aren't that high anymore. Germany even sits on more LNG than it needs. Russia has lost Europe as a major trading partner for good.

Your perspective on the war might be correct in the short term but long term, how is Russia supposed to keep this up? Even if Ukraine is losing as many soldiers as Russia, an attacking force always needs more of them. And it will become increasingly hard to replenish ammunition, weapons, food, etc. for the invading forces given the toll the war and the sanctions are having on the Russian economy. Russia has been saving money for almost a decade in anticipation of this and they sat on unbelievable stocks of Soviet weapons but still struggled with the logistics. Currently they're burning through these savings and stocks, what will they do once they've run dry?
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Nothing is for good in this World. People and nations have very short memories. One day you are an enemy and another day you are an ally. I don't think it should be that way, but it is.
 
Stookie said:
Yeah, you just never know. I read a book recently called On Intelligence, it covers the subject from Greek Roman times all the way to modern day espionage. The stuff that goes down behind the scenes is mind blowing, bluff and counter bluff. Makes me question everything.
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Ukraine did misdirection prior to the last offensive, so it would track.
 
ExoduS said:
What is a realistic possibility ?
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Depends who you ask but I think it's safe to say NATO countries won't be declaring war on Russia and they're too far down the road to withdraw support to Ukraine.
 
ExoduS said:
Weapons are for sure inflicting heavy damage on the Russians, however so far I'm not convinced it will be enough for Ukraine to win. By win I mean restoring all territories occupied by Russians.
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I don't think you can judge anything on the shape of the wider war based on the winter freeze other than Russia have shown an inability to meet even their very limited winter aims of taking Bakhmut and further pressuring the civilian population.

Both sides have been consolidating, holding and preparing. The situation has been static and we'll soon see how well Russia and Ukraine have spent their time preparing for the next - and hopefully final - phase of this war. We'll see how well Ukraine is able to combine and utilise all this new NATO capability and we'll see how well Russia has managed to bed in. But my money is on Ukraine - at the end of the day Russia looking like sitting ducks, with low morale, shit hardware and rubbish troops. Might take time though and the sort of combined ops that will be needed to break Russian lines, will be challenging (according to the experts).
 
ExoduS said:
The consequences would be that Europe would go back to being dependent on Russian resources. Ukraine was supposed to alleviate, perhaps even fully replace, some of the energy exported to Europe.

This war is fought by people and people are a finate resource. Weapons are for sure inflicting heavy damage on the Russians, however so far I'm not convinced it will be enough for Ukraine to win. By win I mean restoring all territories occupied by Russians.
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You are deluded beyond belief, even more than the typical Serbo-rashist.
 
ExoduS said:
Nothing is for good in this World. People and nations have very short memories. One day you are an enemy and another day you are an ally. I don't think it should be that way, but it is.
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It would take decades until the people in the democratic countries would accept that, especially after (!) a Russian victory in Ukraine. The Russian economy will be in shambles at that point in time. Hell, it is even questionable if they are able to capitalize on their own resources in the future since they rely on imported goods to do so.

Russia has fecked itself with this war. It was economic and diplomatic suicide. You cannot become a global powe without a strong economy and diplomatic goodwill/leverage.
 
ExoduS said:
Russia winning would be unprecedented in modern history. Consequences of that will be significant.

Ukraine winning with western support only is possible I guess, but unlikely. At this point a compromise will have to be made and neither side will like it.
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A good chance Ukraine wins this imo. They can by many accounts already claim victory in that they blocked Putin from taking over the entire country a year ago. The fact that this is more or less becoming a frozen conflict at a time when the Ukrainians are getting increasingly sophisticated arms and training from NATO, suggests they could very well launch a counterattack to reclaim Russian occupied areas in the south.
 
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nickm said:
I don't think you can judge anything on the shape of the wider war based on the winter freeze other than Russia have shown an inability to meet even their very limited winter aims of taking Bakhmut and further pressuring the civilian population.

Both sides have been consolidating, holding and preparing. The situation has been static and we'll soon see how well Russia and Ukraine have spent their time preparing for the next - and hopefully final - phase of this war. We'll see how well Ukraine is able to combine and utilise all this new NATO capability and we'll see how well Russia has managed to bed in. But my money is on Ukraine - at the end of the day Russia looking like sitting ducks, with low morale, shit hardware and rubbish troops. Might take time though and the sort of combined ops that will be needed to break Russian lines, will be challenging (according to the experts).
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It won't be the final offensive, of that I think we can be pretty sure. I do think they will make some gains again though in the next few months. For it to be the final offensive I think the Russians would have to collapse and that won't be any time soon.
 
VorZakone said:
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What would be the purpose of leaking this stuff to reddit or what have you rather than clandestinely handing it off to Russians without anyone else being any the wiser? Doesn't feel like the actions of a mole.

Feels strange.
 
Raoul said:
A good chance Ukraine wins this imo. They can by many accounts already claim victory in that they blocked Putin from taking over the entire country a year ago. The fact that this is more or less becoming a frozen conflict at a time when the Ukrainians are getting increasingly sophisticated arms and training from NATO, suggests they could very well launch a counterattack to reclaim Russian occupied areas in the south.
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Time will tell but by the end of this summer we shall know a clear picture of the outcome.
 
Raoul said:
A good chance Ukraine wins this imo. They can by many accounts already claim victory in that they blocked Putin from taking over the entire country a year ago. The fact that this is more or less becoming a frozen conflict at a time when the Ukrainians are getting increasingly sophisticated arms and training from NATO, suggests they could very well launch a counterattack to reclaim Russian occupied areas in the south.
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Personally, i think Russia is completely screwed when the spring counter offensive begins, and i think they know it to.
It will be much like the autumn offensive, but hopefully even worse(for Russia).
 
Morty_ said:
Personally, i think Russia is completely screwed when the spring counter offensive begins, and i think they know it to.
It will be much like the autumn offensive, but hopefully even worse(for Russia).
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Agreed. They're already quite inept and lacking in high skilled troops and weapons, so a proper Ukrainian counteroffensive with NATO quality weapons will be hard to repel.
 
ExoduS said:
Russia winning would be unprecedented in modern history. Consequences of that will be significant.

Ukraine winning with western support only is possible I guess, but unlikely. At this point a compromise will have to be made and neither side will like it.
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Well, you know that NATO has not entered the fight yet, right? NATO can use its air force to help Ukraine, if needed. Like NATO used its airforce to help stop the genocide caused by the Serbs in the 1990s. If Russia wins, Ukraine will face genocide, too. We cannot allow another genocide in Europe.
 
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Russia can't win anymore. Their only chance was the "take Kiev in 3 days" plan. That failed miserably and now the question remains how long can Russia hold out in Ukraine. Ukraine will never stop fighting until the russian occupying forces leave their sovereign territory. Similar to the Taliban in Afghanistan. No matter how long it takes. One year, 3 years, 20 years. At some point, it'll become too expensive to occupy a warzone. Russia and USA faced that problem in Afghanistan. But on the other side if you fight for your homeland, you have no timelimit, you are patient.
Russia tried to destroy Ukranian morale with their missiles and energy terror, but that also failed and even strengthened their resolve. There is nothing Russia can do anymore except from go nuclear, which they won't do, because then Nato would immediately create a no fly zone in Ukraine.
So the only question is, how long the war will continue and how many people have to die until Putin acknowledges that he can't control Ukraine and leave them as they did in Afghanistan back in the days.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
What would be the purpose of leaking this stuff to reddit or what have you rather than clandestinely handing it off to Russians without anyone else being any the wiser? Doesn't feel like the actions of a mole.

Feels strange.
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Personally I think it’s a deliberate leak because there isn’t going to be a spring offensive. If people then in any way criticise UA for this lack of offensive, the US says ‘sorry our bad, leak came from our side’ and there’s not really anything more can be said. Meanwhile UA gets more precious time and more training.
 
What was Russia's latest succesful occupation in this war? I think it was Severodonetsk-Lysychansk in June/July. If Bahkmut holds, the RA will get to a year long without any significant advance. And it's not like they're just defending their gains, since they have lost territories in Kherson, Donetsk and Lugansk in the process.
 
frostbite said:
Well, you know that NATO has not entered the fight yet, right? NATO can use its air force to help Ukraine, if needed. Like NATO used its airforce to help stop the genocide caused by the Serbs in the 1990s. If Russia wins, Ukraine will face genocide, too. We cannot allow another genocide in Europe.
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I thought Russians are already commiting a genocide? More Ukrainians already have died than in entire Yugo conflict that lasted 4 years.

I'm waiting for NATO to enter the fight. Surprised it is taking good guys this long to react.
 
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