Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I guess that thing really packs some punch. Perhaps a little too strong even, maybe that's why Biden was so hesitant to provide it.
Politico also reporting it.
Hopefully the arrival of ATACMS will help to further target supply lines and air-support bases, softening the front.
I don't know if Russians have enough manpower and firepower in the East, to make a significant dent in Avdiivka. Maybe it's targeted at pulling Ukrainians focus away from the South. If they fail to make any advancements there it might be a sign of the depletion of the Russian offensive potential, for now.
Meanwhile, it's crucial from a moral and strategic POV for Ukrainians to keep pushing in the South. They have to widen the front a bit and take Verbove, to reduce the risk of a pincer move from the Russians. They'll probably have to target Rivne and Kopani next. Then the focus will likely be the last settlements (Ilchenkive and Solodka Balka) that unblock the road to Tokmak.
This will likely take months and be a bloody war of attrition. I don't foresee easy or quick gains. But if Ukrainians reach the outskirts of Tokmak next year it will be an incredible achievement and it will set the stage for them threatening the entire Russian controlled South. That would likely light some fires in the Kremlin.
I don't know if Russians have enough manpower and firepower in the East, to make a significant dent in Avdiivka. Maybe it's targeted at pulling Ukrainians focus away from the South. If they fail to make any advancements there it might be a sign of the depletion of the Russian offensive potential, for now.
Meanwhile, it's crucial from a moral and strategic POV for Ukrainians to keep pushing in the South. They have to widen the front a bit and take Verbove, to reduce the risk of a pincer move from the Russians. They'll probably have to target Rivne and Kopani next. Then the focus will likely be the last settlements (Ilchenkive and Solodka Balka) that unblock the road to Tokmak.
This will likely take months and be a bloody war of attrition. I don't foresee easy or quick gains. But if Ukrainians reach the outskirts of Tokmak next year it will be an incredible achievement and it will set the stage for them threatening the entire Russian controlled South. That would likely light some fires in the Kremlin.
Yes, but only the cluster-bomb variant-at least initially that was the case.
That's what was full confirmation of it being ATACMS, as bomblets that were documented by Russians are only used in that ATACMS.
My question here is...surely, surely, the Russians don't rely on public announcements? 
Did Russian intelligence not know this?
Did Russian intelligence not know this?
They've only supplied the older, shorter range version, which fits with much of the equipment so far. Capable but not the very latest models.
Apparently they supplied only a handful of these, but their existence alone in the theater will force Russians to move back their helicopters deep into the rear significantly reducing their effectiveness and ability to cover their infantry in time.
It holds more Russian territory at risk and I get why they don't want to supply the best stuff. It's not good if American bombs are landing in Russia and they don't want to give up the weapon characteristics.
Satellite images are out now for Berdyansk airport aftermath:
Basically confirming Ukrainian MoD claims about 9 helicopters destroyed / damaged during the attack with ATACMS missiles.
Basically confirming Ukrainian MoD claims about 9 helicopters destroyed / damaged during the attack with ATACMS missiles.
It seems like the ATACMS are working rather well so far. Long may it continue.
So...whodunit?
Another russian assault this morning in Avdiivka, yielding same results as all the previous one:
Feel like this is the precursor to Bahkmut all over again. Russians just chuck shit at the target and eventually overwhelm Ukrainian defences.
It works both ways too, as Ukraine found out at the start of the counter offensive. Ukraine seemingly has a much higher regard for life, so very quickly took a more cautious ground approach (at least that’s how I see it).
For all the endless of talk of “Russians running out of stuff” you do think sooner rather than later they’re going to be degraded to the extent of not being able to support a huge invasion force. Like, a year more maybe? No idea, but they don’t exactly conduct themselves sustainably.
The feck do I know though, they could have only used the tip of the iceberg when it comes to equipment.
Ukraine now has much more ammo though, including cluster munitions, meaning that enemy can no longer overwhelm them with endless meat assaults as they call them. It’s actually impressive that russians can still keep going as they do having lost more than 10 thousand (visually confirmed only) pieces of mostly heavy equipment. All of europe should be eternally grateful to Ukraine that they’re holding them off from getting on our doorstep, basically. People are really the cheapest going currency in their army.
Putin invites Biden for tea, so, basically a death threat.
The only thing I see from the Putin and Xi meeting is how small those men are at statesmanship. While Russia and China also have their interests in the Middle East, they can also score points by say that they offer something for peace. Intsead we have radio silence from them when comes that time for serious business. Feck those losers.
A world of favors would be done if someone in Russia makes sure that Putin is the one drinking that tea.
A world of favors would be done if someone in Russia makes sure that Putin is the one drinking that tea.
A year? Maybe a decade most likely. Russia was suppose to fold in the first 3 months and it had been almost 2 years. And their military budget is huge this year. There is too much wishful thinking in Ukraine's war. As much the Russian army is incompetent, they have many more soldiers. A huge stockpile from the soviet era and their economy is still a powerhouse exporting raw materials.
As much as their military was corrupt and money was lost due to it, I don't think now is the case if they don't want to be defenestrated and they are getting their shit together even with very basic tactics. They can sit for a long time building defenses in the conquered territory while Ukraine bleeds out.
Hopefully Ukraine can munch enough terrain with the least human losses possible little by little but I think the best chance is that Putin drops dead and Russia could be free of Putin's narrative
I think its more so a simple matter of existing weapons in the US arsenal go to Ukraine, and those are replenished by new weapons through existing defense contracts.
I’d agree.
Has the weather started to turn there yet? How much impact will it have if so?
I doubt it will have a significant impact either way if last winter is anything to go by as the fighting didn’t really stop.
On the side note, I feel like people in Europe still don’t really acknowledge the lurking evil just around the corner, as the military production is still at such low levels despite the on-going full scale war with the intensity not seen since WW2 with countries walking back on their % GDP commitments to NATO and their defenses. Only this week Russia lost (visually confirmed) 200+ heavy armor (tanks, IFV, artillery), while most European countries don’t have that much armor in their stocks full stop. I have heard quite an opt metaphor comparing European countries to those carefree people dancing and enjoying themselves during the music festival in Israel.
If you look at Russia's losses yesterday, not yet. 55 tanks, 120 APVs in just one day.
True. Russia loses in one day what many NATO countries have in total stock. We live in a very dangerous time, where the autocrat axis (Syria, Iran, Russia, NK, China) challenge democracies, some of them openly, some through proxies. If we do not rise to this challenge and use our superior economy to strengthen our armies as a deterrent, we risk a future full of war and misery.
This is so true and has been driving me crazy when I see someone quoting UN figures, the scale of people killed by Russia is immense in reality.
Apparently, it was an absolute carnage yesterday in Avdiivka again, hence such figures:
Would this have been done with consent from the Likud party?
Nepalis are fighting in this war.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/20/world/asia/ukraine-russia-nepal.html
One can even argue that we're already living in a very loosely related multifront World War scenario. There's the european front, the ME front, the african front (which isn't really that much discussed) and the tensions in the far East, with the alliances being pretty much the same in every front.
Hopefully the new weapons received by the UA will help break the stalemate. I would have expected a bigger advance by this point of the year, even when you can never be really sure of what's going on behind scenes. The logic of fighting months long campaigns little city by little city isn't really sustainable for Ukraine's long term goals.
These FPV drones are replacing traditional artillery to an extent given their superior accuracy, especially for moving targets. This is some boom:
The explosion was that large because of the target ordnance detonating I assume? I'd assume the drone can carry much less explosive than a regular artillery shell.
Yes, in this case TOS was loaded for sure.
Cluster munitions doing the job they were designed to against Russian meat assaults, if only US didn’t slow ball the delivery of these weapons that Ukraine requested ages ago, would have saved so many lives for AFU during the Bakhmut meat grinder.
Russia might be incompetent, and are losing a lot of men, and military equipment, but they are still slowly, but surely, making their way to encircle Avdiikva.
They will likely succeed in the end, because somehow they simply cant run out of things to throw at the enemy, its ridiculous how they can lose so many tanks each day, and just have even more tanks ready the next.
They will likely succeed in the end, because somehow they simply cant run out of things to throw at the enemy, its ridiculous how they can lose so many tanks each day, and just have even more tanks ready the next.