Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Morty_ said:
Russia might be incompetent, and are losing a lot of men, and military equipment, but they are still slowly, but surely, making their way to encircle Avdiikva.

They will likely succeed in the end, because somehow they simply cant run out of things to throw at the enemy, its ridiculous how they can lose so many tanks each day, and just have even more tanks ready the next.
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Their stockpiles are insane.
 
I think Ukraine would happily trade Crimea for Avdiivka if punishing the Russians there but losing ground allows the assault in the south to progress.
 
stoinz said:
Makes you think how long Putin have been preparing for this. Some of the Western countries have already depleted some of their equipments after donating to the Ukraine.
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That's not really on Putin, the Russians simply didn't care to scrap their cold war inventory, unlike the Western countries.
 
stefan92 said:
That's not really on Putin, the Russians simply didn't care to scrap their cold war inventory, unlike the Western countries.
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Tanks and guns I understand. But surely those cruise missiles and drones that they fire daily are something post cold war era?
 
stoinz said:
Tanks and guns I understand. But surely those cruise missiles and drones that they fire daily are something post cold war era?
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Yes, that's mostly even current prodiction now as Russia didn't have a huge stockpile.
 
It seems like some UKR troops are crossing the Dnipro river. I wonder how feasible for them to have a major offensive there. You would think the RA's defensive lines facing that direction are a bit weaker on that front?
 
Morty_ said:
Russia might be incompetent, and are losing a lot of men, and military equipment, but they are still slowly, but surely, making their way to encircle Avdiikva.

They will likely succeed in the end, because somehow they simply cant run out of things to throw at the enemy, its ridiculous how they can lose so many tanks each day, and just have even more tanks ready the next.
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They are not that bad at that anymore, though. It is hard to call them that, especially after we saw how the UKR troops, with modern equipment, had similar struggles on the South to capture small villages. We usually laughed at them for taking so long and losses to capture some establishment. Maybe we should be looking at their losses in a different way to get a good idea of how UKR has to do the same for bigger cities anywhere. Very grim.
 
The United said:
They are not that bad at that anymore, though. It is hard to call them that, especially after we saw how the UKR troops, with modern equipment, had similar struggles on the South to capture small villages. We usually laughed at them for taking so long and losses to capture some establishment. Maybe we should be looking at their losses in a different way to get a good idea of how UKR has to do the same for bigger cities anywhere. Very grim.
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They are still bad when going on the offense, so they aren't really getting anywhere, but then, neither is Ukraine.

Of course, offense is always more difficult than defense, but considering how wide and long the entire frontline is, how neither side can really find any real weaknesses is beyond me, the amount of work going into fortifying the lines has been quite astonishing, so Russia has done well on that front.
 
Morty_ said:
They are still bad when going on the offense, so they aren't really getting anywhere, but then, neither is Ukraine.

Of course, offense is always more difficult than defense, but considering how wide and long the entire frontline is, how neither side can really find any real weaknesses is beyond me, the amount of work going into fortifying the lines has been quite astonishing, so Russia has done well on that front.
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Oh, I agree that they are bad when we look at the results, but I think it is more like they don't want to die than they are totally incompetent. It is grim for them to go through all of these to capture some ruined villages. And I can't blame soldiers for not throwing their lives away easily like decades ago, as they have better and more options to live for nowadays regardless of whoever is saying that what they should fight for.
 
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Morty_ said:
They are still bad when going on the offense, so they aren't really getting anywhere, but then, neither is Ukraine.

Of course, offense is always more difficult than defense, but considering how wide and long the entire frontline is, how neither side can really find any real weaknesses is beyond me, the amount of work going into fortifying the lines has been quite astonishing, so Russia has done well on that front.
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Drones. Tactical reconnaissance has never before been this good. Basically it became impossible to do any surprising actions for the first time in history.
 
Assasinations include those of Dugina & militant blogger Tatarsky. Dugina's father was the intended target.

 
^ Also interesting nugget of info about Ukraine's initial own scepticism about Russia invading. The article mentions that Ukrainian intel was eavesdropping on Russian units who themselves weren't informed until the eve of the war. So they were getting their intel from Russians who were in the dark themselves.

US intelligence had other separate streams of intel that Ukraine did not have.
 
Financial Times articles can be read with archive.ph most of the time (in my experience).

 
Are we now officially into mud season in Ukraine? Meaning front lines are probably quite set now?
 
I hope they don't lose Avdiivka, as it kind of defeats the purpose of chasing RA out of their territories. It has been clear that every territory would cost so much blood to retake. And it would have questioned the ability of the UA's troops if they kept losing cities even after all this support.
 
The United said:
I hope they don't lose Avdiivka, as it kind of defeats the purpose of chasing RA out of their territories. It has been clear that every territory would cost so much blood to retake. And it would have questioned the ability of the UA's troops if they kept losing cities even after all this support.
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I don't see how Ukraine loses Avdiivka in the foreseeable future. Russia lost hundreds of armored vehicles, tanks and around 10.000 men in just 2 weeks for what, 1.5 km of land? The bad weather is coming soon as well. They cannot sustain such attacks for long with these losses. And the situation is a bit different than Bakhmut's. Wagner had 50.000 prisoner zombies at their disposal. Russian military might not value the lives of their men, but my feeling is they can't throw them the same way into the meatgrinder like Wagner did. Russian telegram channels report about the terrible losses in Avdiivka in a different tone than last year in Bakhmut. The public pressure could rise if they use them the same way.



Ukraine needs to hold their ground in 2024. Russia plans to use every third ruble for their war machinery. If they don't have any success in Ukraine next year, they'll start to crumble. No economy can sustain this level of spending for long. There will be light at the end of the tunnel.
 
Article on deserted Russians.

He said he witnessed drunken brawls among fellow soldiers, claiming that some of them resulted in deadly shootings. “As time went on, soldiers started to think what is this all for? Many of those who were enthusiastic about fighting started to question the purpose of it all.”
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Ragnar123 said:
I don't see how Ukraine loses Avdiivka in the foreseeable future. Russia lost hundreds of armored vehicles, tanks and around 10.000 men in just 2 weeks for what, 1.5 km of land? The bad weather is coming soon as well. They cannot sustain such attacks for long with these losses. And the situation is a bit different than Bakhmut's. Wagner had 50.000 prisoner zombies at their disposal. Russian military might not value the lives of their men, but my feeling is they can't throw them the same way into the meatgrinder like Wagner did. Russian telegram channels report about the terrible losses in Avdiivka in a different tone than last year in Bakhmut. The public pressure could rise if they use them the same way.



Ukraine needs to hold their ground in 2024. Russia plans to use every third ruble for their war machinery. If they don't have any success in Ukraine next year, they'll start to crumble. No economy can sustain this level of spending for long. There will be light at the end of the tunnel.
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How long I read this "Russia can sustain this level of..." since the beginning of the war. Soon 2 years and still on
 
Ragnar123 said:
I don't see how Ukraine loses Avdiivka in the foreseeable future. Russia lost hundreds of armored vehicles, tanks and around 10.000 men in just 2 weeks for what, 1.5 km of land? The bad weather is coming soon as well. They cannot sustain such attacks for long with these losses. And the situation is a bit different than Bakhmut's. Wagner had 50.000 prisoner zombies at their disposal. Russian military might not value the lives of their men, but my feeling is they can't throw them the same way into the meatgrinder like Wagner did. Russian telegram channels report about the terrible losses in Avdiivka in a different tone than last year in Bakhmut. The public pressure could rise if they use them the same way.



Ukraine needs to hold their ground in 2024. Russia plans to use every third ruble for their war machinery. If they don't have any success in Ukraine next year, they'll start to crumble. No economy can sustain this level of spending for long. There will be light at the end of the tunnel.
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Ukraine needs to hold their ground, with significantly less help from the US going forward, though.

Yes, other NATO countries contributes, but they aren't upping their productions nearly enough to what is needed, by comparison, Russia's stockpiles are larger than we could even think of, and they are going into, as you say, something of a war economy now.

Russia has prepared for this for years/decades, meanwhile, the big NATO-nations in Europe got lazy and complacent.
 
Morty_ said:
Ukraine needs to hold their ground, with significantly less help from the US going forward, though.
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Would the US really deprive themselves from that free live testing ground for some of their more recent weapons though?

Europe need to pick up the pace for sure, but we have to be realistic as very few countries have that kind of quality and numbers in their weaponry. That being said, it would also greatly help if the Japanese and the South Koreans decide to up their game on that front.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Would the US really deprive themselves from that free live testing ground for some of their more recent weapons though?

Europe need to pick up the pace for sure, but we have to be realistic as very few countries have that kind of quality and numbers in their weaponry. That being said, it would also greatly help if the Japanese and the South Koreans decide to up their game on that front.
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The new house speaker is opposed to it, and about as far right as its possible to get in the republican party, US would be lucky to even hold the government open, let alone aid for Ukraine.
 
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