Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The new house speaker is opposed to it, and about as far right as its possible to get in the republican party, US would be lucky to even hold the government open, let alone aid for Ukraine.
You're underestimate the lobbyists from the military industrial complex. They make politicians' balls bluer than the gun lobby does because it's about actual jobs.
 
The new house speaker is opposed to it, and about as far right as its possible to get in the republican party, US would be lucky to even hold the government open, let alone aid for Ukraine.

In his first interview this has already been proven to be wrong. As soon as they step in an actual important role in US government, geopolitics become a lot more important.
 
In his first interview this has already been proven to be wrong. As soon as they step in an actual important role in US government, geopolitics become a lot more important.

All well and good, but then, McCarthy said he supported Ukraine too, then removed aid in the last round of negotiations before getting ousted.

So, a bill with Ukraine aid has to come out of the house first, not going to take his words for it.
 
Russia has prepared for this for years/decades, meanwhile, the big NATO-nations in Europe got lazy and complacent.

Ideologically ? Perhaps. Materially... don't think I agree. There's always been a lot of posturing by Putin about modernizing the military, hyping up the marketing for arm exports by manufacturers but the reform has never reached all that deeply.
Doesn't seem like the Russian Army proved they let behind the issues from their wars on Chechnya or Georgia. They were more successful in expeditionary warfare or the so called hybrid ops, granted, but I don't think they expected to be engaged in an actual "near peer" conventional campaign that's will probably last a year at the shortest.

I think they proved more resilient than the always too rosy "NATO enthusiasts" projections hoped but whatever gains they can make -from this vantage point- have already been paid with an exorbitant price in blood & treasure for non-existential objectives.
Apart from Baltic countries, I don't think any NATO member have to worry about being overwhelmed by a Russian conventional attack anytime soon.
 
Looking more like another Bakhmut type quagmire for the Russians. Loads of resources spent with little to show for it.

 
A good interview with Breedlove about the current state of affairs.

 
The new house speaker is opposed to it, and about as far right as its possible to get in the republican party, US would be lucky to even hold the government open, let alone aid for Ukraine.

This is why they are having to combine aid for Ukraine and Israel into on bill.
 
The most effective and efficient anti armor weapons in this war so far are clearly mines and drones. Javelins are better of course, but very expensive. Russia held off Ukrainian's counter offensive mainly with their huge mine fields. I fear mines will be produced at an unprecedented level going into the future. As a consequence, it'll be even more dangerous for civilians to return to former war zones.
 
All allowed by Putin of course.


I doubt that it was allowed by him. It’s in many ways a consequence of his actions (from nurturing “traditional values” to supporting HAMAS), but I doubt that it had started from up top — by most accounts it was a ground root movement that began with a spread of misinformation that the jews on the plane were coming to Dagestan as settlers.
 
I'm increasingly convinced Putin has instructed his troll factory to hack into ChatGPT with this narrative.

 
More convicts sent to Ukraine?

The sharp drop in the number of inmates is evidence that the Defense Ministry continued to aggressively recruit convicted criminals even after blocking access to prisoners by the Wagner mercenary group, which pioneered the campaign to trade clemency for military service.


 
I'd say the most alarming part of that Time article is this:


"Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that"
 
It is really grim. I think it has been clear for awhile that the UKR does not have enough capability or support to win this war. We just didn't really want to admit it.
 
It's nothing new. Putin is absolutely all-in in this war. He will continue until he dies from an illness/old age, someone decides to kill him in an inner struggle or Russia's economy collapses. It's not about just Ukraine anymore. Putin decided to bring down the "colonial" West in his late years, so he'll be remembered as the one who brought back the Russian empire. Purely out of self-protection we need to continue supporting Ukraine until one of those 3 points becomes reality.
 
It is really grim. I think it has been clear for awhile that the UKR does not have enough capability or support to win this war. We just didn't really want to admit it.

Well they could, actually, if supposed leading European nations like France and Germany actually took this seriously, instead of sitting back, thinking the US would always be there to solve their security problems.

Russia raises its military budget by 70% next year, Germany, raises its already low budget by a measly 3% or something, by comparison.
 
It's nothing new. Putin is absolutely all-in in this war. He will continue until he dies from an illness/old age, someone decides to kill him in an inner struggle or Russia's economy collapses. It's not about just Ukraine anymore. Putin decided to bring down the "colonial" West in his late years, so he'll be remembered as the one who brought back the Russian empire. Purely out of self-protection we need to continue supporting Ukraine until one of those 3 points becomes reality.

Yeah, well, unfortunately big European nations can't be bothered to take the lead on this.
 
I'll put it in a spoiler, because I can't figure out if in the first video is a corpse or not. Better safe than sorry.
100+ mobiks reported dead and wounded after HIMARS strike.
 
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This would only become a factor if the US and Europe stop supporting the Ukrainians. They've received ATACMS and Ukrainian pilots are getting F-16s soon (they are training in the US now), so for all the talk of stalling the counteroffensive, what has actually stalled is Russia's attempt to make new advances.
Well it's time to accept that the Ukrainian summer offensive totally failed in regard to freeing their country. They did have success in taking out storage, logistics and command structures, but they failed to use those strikes to get results on the ground. The same is true for Russia, but this isn't what was hoped for. This looks like it will be not over soon and the opportunity to enable Ukraine to strike decisively has passed
 
Well it's time to accept that the Ukrainian summer offensive totally failed in regard to freeing their country. They did have success in taking out storage, logistics and command structures, but they failed to use those strikes to get results on the ground. The same is true for Russia, but this isn't what was hoped for. This looks like it will be not over soon and the opportunity to enable Ukraine to strike decisively has passed

Freeing their country is of course a relative term. The Ukrainians are in it to win back all their territory including Crimea, so not accomplishing that in one summer is anything but a failure. A look at the map a month or so after the invasion and that of today and its easy to see which side has made far more progress.
 
Freeing their country is of course a relative term. The Ukrainians are in it to win back all their territory including Crimea, so not accomplishing that in one summer is anything but a failure. A look at the map a month or so after the invasion and that of today and its easy to see which side has made far more progress.
True, but that progress happened throughout last years autumn offensive at latest, after that very little happened. And that's a failure (for both sides).
 
True, but that progress happened throughout last years autumn offensive at latest, after that very little happened. And that's a failure (for both sides).

You also have to factor in the weapons the Ukrainians are finally receiving now, which will help them gain more territory in the future. Beyond what they have now, there's massive $64 billion package coming their way from the US congress at a time when the Russians are having to desperately resort to begging the North Koreans for weapons and literally freeing prisoners to fight on the front lines.

I just had a look at this map which was posted in one of the earlier links. They really haven't made much progress since the invasion. Much of the land in the south is sparsely populated, mostly agrarian farm land, so beyond a couple of cities like Mariupol and Melitopol, they don't have much to show for themselves.

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