John Bolton would be too busy throwing bombs on Iran by this point
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
For those screaming negotiations for Ukraine to give up on their territory and people, how can Ukraine abandon those living under occupation in these hostile conditions? It’s country’s constitutional duty. Villages on the left bank are being liberated:
Bro, it is not about screaming negotiations while Ukraine is in a winning position. Ukraine needs people - NATO troops - to win this war. There are simply not enough skilled soldiers on Ukraine’s side left to make any significant progress. This isn’t Russian propaganda, it is a reality.
There’s definitely enough soldiers in Ukraine but unfortunately not enough will in the west to provide the necessary equipment in needed quantities, and by west I mean US realistically speaking as only they have tens of thousands amounts of heavy armor / AD / long-range missiles / jets sitting in the storage or scrapyards but the Biden admin is paralyzed by fear and are instead focusing on escalation management. Biden allowed for lend-lease (40bUSD) to expire, and didn’t push for large aid necessary to win this war when democrats had the congress earlier in the war, it’s all about political willingness.
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"Definitely" enough? This goes against anything I have read so far. Manpower issue seems to be a real concern.
Well. I will respectfully disagree with you. Going all in initially would definitely escalate this conflict. How bad it would get I really do not know.
Equipment is not unlimited either. Sure there are few tanks here and there, but with all these conflicts brewing there is just not enough surplus.
Gigantic feckup all around.
I think you can train soldiers and equip them if we still have the will to invest in Ukraine winning the war…
The Americans have thousands of tanks in storage. Probably 10s of thousands.
Perhaps I've missed it but we haven't seen much of the Challenger yet, have we? The Bradley & Leopard have been seen in action a lot more.
Agree with this. There are about 45m Ukrainians and all fighting age males are required to participate (along with some females), so it strains credulity to believe they don’t have enough people to fight. The country that doesn’t have enough troops is the one needing to free prisoners to fight on the front lines.
This article says about 31m Ukrainians live in territory controlled by Ukraine: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-demography-second-year-full-fledged-war
It’s closer to 34m I read in reality a huge chunk has left initially and part of the population are under occupation.
ok, so 37m. That should be more than enough to contribute a few million soldiers to a war threatening the country’s very existence.
In theory. But when you listen to frontline interviews with Ukrainian troops or read other articles, the general mood is that manpower is a real problem.
And why are you using the 37m figure? The Russian-controlled Donbas and Crimea won't fight for the Ukrainian side.
Doesn't matter. The Ukrainians are fighting to save their own existence and have more than enough people to fight.
I hope they get back to their families soon.Russia launches largest drone attack on Ukraine since start of invasion, says Ukrainian military
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...-kyiv-attack-ad3eef50f980a4df023fad78d7bc197d
Surely thats a project that has take a long time to finish? Perhaps longer than the war will last unless its going to last for a long time?
A very long time. In comparison, it took 17 years with Japan at the peak of its economic powers to finish construction of the Seikan Tunnel linking Hokkaido with Honshu under the seabed of the Tsugaru Strait (1971-1988). The undersea portion of the Seikan Tunnel is 23.3 km long while the current Kerch Bridge is 18.1 km long. Hence it is a major investment and technological challenge to consider about, especially when no one knows if Russian public finances can absorb the hit any time soon.
This is what worries me. I think European governments in particular have to show some backbone and tell the people that some significant and urgent investment is needed to safeguard the future of Europe. It will be unpalatable for a section of the electorate but necessary.
Create a European military programme that will build up factories to produce a steady supply of enough of what Ukraine needs to prevail. Loitering munitions, drones, EW defences, AA batteries, tanks, artillery, IFVs and ammunition’s for all of the above.
If Russia is aiming to spend 10% of its GDP on the war in 2024, I would say Europe should aim to spend at least 4-5% to make sure Ukraine is well supplied. If Russia loses this war it could buy the continent another 50 years of peace. It’ll be money well spent.
BBC: 650,000 conscription-aged men have left Ukraine for Europe
https://kyivindependent.com/bbc-650-000-conscription-aged-men-have-left-ukraine-for-europe/
Its going to come back to bite the EU at some point.
Russia doesn't stop with Ukraine if they can get it, Russia will eventually go into NATO-countries, maybe not directly at first, but one way or another, they will chip away at eastern Europe.
Russia needs to be treated as an existential threat, not just to Ukraine, but to central and northern Europe as well, they have to be stopped in Ukraine, before they ruin even more countries.
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I fear that too.
The inefficiencies of democracy are exposed. Some European politicians are deep in Russian pockets. But most are simply looking short-term (next election) and are burying their head in the sand, ostrich-like, about the long term dangers of relying solely on NATO/US for security. It will just take one terrible election result in the US, like Trump being re-elected, for the whole security net to disappear under our feet.
Europe needs to mature politically, to move on from being just an economic union and to start taking shit seriously. Beginning with border security and defence, which requires common strategy, planning and funding. Otherwise when shit actually hits the fan it’ll be everyone for themselves and the chips will fall one by one.
Some countries, like Poland, are taking the threat seriously, and are thinking long term, but most are not, unfortuantely.
I would have done the same.
Well, now we go back to the manpower problem, which I have been saying since last year. 50k newly trained bridges to get about 5 miles into the Russian lines is bad, no matter how you look at it. It is not great for Ukraine, with no one seemingly paying much attention (or support) now.
I am hoping that the West, especially the U.S., learns some lessons from this war before jumping into war with the likes of China in the future without the infrastructure to produce enough equipment. They won't even have enough ships (fewer than 300) by the time China is ready, which is around 2027, according to some.
I am hoping that the West, especially the U.S., learns some lessons from this war before jumping into war with the likes of China in the future without the infrastructure to produce enough equipment. They won't even have enough ships (fewer than 300) by the time China is ready, which is around 2027, according to some.
When China is ready for what?
According to some U.S. intelligence, Xi is making sure their troops are ready by 2027, presumably, for grabbing Taiwan and he wants it within this decade.
Hopefully, Russia is kicked out of Ukraine by then, but it feels they are in it for the long haul, years of stalemate is a pretty likely scenario.
The US won't be able to commit to both places at the same time, hopefully the EU has increased its military capabilities significantly by then, but I wouldn't count on it.
Apparently, the U.S. Navy needs a significant upgrade (which may be too late) if they are to face the Chinese there.
The Chinese are producing cheap but effective weapons in mass quantities to attack ships, and they will have 400 ships by then too.
Right now, the U.S and Europe are struggling to refill their ammunition. The (long) Ukraine war actually benefits Xi in certain way because of it.