Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

They want to occupy Ukraine not turn it into a wasteland.

Plus the US told Putin if he uses nukes the next ones would be hitting his location.

I thought biden said they would respond with non specific overwhelming force but with conventional weapons not nukes.
 
You've missed the main point he was making: that the situation in Ukraine was partially precipitated by the U.S. meddling. Victoria Nuland, the Under Secretary of State, was caught on tape 'engineering' the next Ukrainian government, a fact inconveniently leaked out
(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957). There's probably a lot more where that came from.


From Putin's perspective, he witnessed a democratically elected government being overthrown and a new, unfriendly government installed, pulling the country toward NATO. He clearly communicated that this was unacceptable and that he would act accordingly. The US/UK/EU assumed this risk, but in my opinion, it was a miscalculation. Strictly speaking, there is no benefit for the US in admitting Ukraine to NATO; it's a situation that is more dilutive than accretive. What the West should have done was to take NATO off the table and slow-walk the EU talks. In 20 years, Ukraine could have been a member of both. However, under the current scenario, Ukraine might lose millions of people, become completely obliterated, lose territory, and probably end up as a failed state within the next decade. That's realpolitik for you.

Additionally, Putin didn't attempt a full-blown invasion. You don't invade a country like Ukraine with less than 200,000 soldiers—it's not feasible. In my opinion, he aimed to solidify control of Crimea, secure the two eastern regions, and intimidate Zelenskyy into resigning or accepting quick concessions. However, it didn't work as the Ukrainian Army is incredibly strong, resilient, and well-armed/trained, effectively countering his actions. That was Putin's miscalculation, and that could have been the time for peace talks and ending hostilities. The West pressed on, Putin regrouped, and the Russians, as they typically do, became stronger as the war went on (see WWII, 1941 vs. 1943, etc.). The reality is they are winning the war and no amount of wishful thinking could change that.

I am not pro-Putin; I am pro-U.S., but I realize that we should keep our powder dry for issues that matter and not get tangled into yet another useless conflict.

It's not down to NATO or Russia or the EU or anybody else to say Ukraine should be this or that as long as they're not violating international laws and rights. Listening to them and talking to them about what they want is what any sane, functional government should do. It's not to say the US, NATO, EU, whoever couldn't have played it better, of course they could but hindsight is 20/20 and frankly there is no excuse for genocide, war crimes, illegal invasions, any of that bullshit. And of course that goes for the scumbag Israelis too, and frankly anybody who is focused more on US / EU / NATO mistakes in Russia at even close to the same level or more as to what they're currently fecking up / have been fecking up in the last 6 months in Gaza is a fecking lunatic or a scumbag themselves. And I appreciate I'm generalising and all that and yes it's a dick move but no I can't be rational about people murdering or apologising for murdering children, they can swivel on it.
 
Forcing a regime change. It's the reason why Russia didn't open up broad frontlines but marched towards a few key cities.

What do you think about Putin giving speech to the nation that Ukraine isnt even a real country was about?
 
They want to occupy Ukraine not turn it into a wasteland.

Plus the US told Putin if he uses nukes the next ones would be hitting his location.

It's not really about Ukraine. If the goal is to first take Ukraine, then Poland and Romania, and to use nukes if NATO becomes involved (because Poland and Romania are member countries), then they might as well send the nukes right now unless they're not sure if NATO are willing to defend Poland and Romania. What's the point in waiting?
 
South Korea has provided more 155mm artillery ammunition than the whole EU for last year. I'm glad that South Korea are offering counterbalance to North Korea's efforts in supplying Russia, but this is just embarrassing for Europe.



To be clear, South Korea has been selling ammunition to countries that have donated or sold ammunition to Ukraine and thus depleted their own stock.
 
They want to occupy Ukraine not turn it into a wasteland.

Plus the US told Putin if he uses nukes the next ones would be hitting his location.

Putin wants the land and economic capacity of Ukraine for himself - for obvious reasons. Beyond his megalomaniacal, neo-imperialist, pan-Slavic delusions of grandeur; taking all of Ukraine would offer a bigger buffer between democracy and Moscow, a greater ability to use energy exports to intimidate European buyers during winters without needing to resort to undersea pipelines, complete control over Ukraine’s abundant agricultural exports, a greater ability to agitate and weaken Eastern European states from within - the list goes on…..

The fact that he has been humiliated internationally by failing to take any meaningful land in Ukraine is itself a testament to the success of the Ukrainians and those who have supported them.
 
It's not really about Ukraine. If the goal is to first take Ukraine, then Poland and Romania, and to use nukes if NATO becomes involved (because Poland and Romania are member countries), then they might as well send the nukes right now unless they're not sure if NATO are willing to defend Poland and Romania. What's the point in waiting?
Because they’re playing the long game trying to dismantle NATO from within via election interference and creating all sorts of unrests in social space to the point were NATO becomes disfunctional (imagine more governments with positions like Hungary).That way you can get NATO which is too divided and weak to commit to using nukes (especially if US leaves the block), it’s all part of their calculations. The regime in Kremlin thought that point has already arrived and to an extent Putin was right, NATO countries only really started to supply weapons once Ukraine won the battle of Kyiv until then Biden was scared to shit to do anything and was suggesting Zelensky to flee. Russia is also afraid of using nukes now because their calculus has changed too now since then, and if they’re not 100% sure that retaliation won’t follow they won’t use it either.
 
Last edited:
Mobilization a hot topic within Ukraine. Several scenarios are described of which the most liked scenario is the one in which army salaries are increased to attract volunteers. But obviously Western financial support is needed.

 
What do you think about Putin giving speech to the nation that Ukraine isnt even a real country was about?
I believe Putin hoped for a similar status for Ukraine as for Belarus - including them as third member of their "Union State" and trying to make progress in that.
 
I believe Putin hoped for a similar status for Ukraine as for Belarus - including them as third member of their "Union State" and trying to make progress in that.

He already annexed Crimea and has despite it not being internationally recognized annexed the eastern occupied regions of Ukraine.
 
He already annexed Crimea and has despite it not being internationally recognized annexed the eastern occupied regions of Ukraine.
True, but I think that's only his plan B. I am sure he wanted to integrate the whole Ukraine, and I believe what I said to be a reasonable elegant way to do it. Don't forget I am not talking about Ukraine only, that approach would have given him a position of strength to really take over Belarus as well. Now Belarus still isn't much better integrated and Luka still is trolling Putin whenever he can.
 
True, but I think that's only his plan B. I am sure he wanted to integrate the whole Ukraine, and I believe what I said to be a reasonable elegant way to do it. Don't forget I am not talking about Ukraine only, that approach would have given him a position of strength to really take over Belarus as well. Now Belarus still isn't much better integrated and Luka still is trolling Putin whenever he can.

Nah the moment he told the nation that Ukraine isnt a real country is a move to say its really russian.
 
Nah the moment he told the nation that Ukraine isnt a real country is a move to say its really russian.
To be clear, I absolutely agree with you. I just question what was the actual intention how to do it. And I don't think that this kind of full scale war/invasion/occupation was the way Putin wanted to go, but had to do as plan B.
 
Mobilization a hot topic within Ukraine. Several scenarios are described of which the most liked scenario is the one in which army salaries are increased to attract volunteers. But obviously Western financial support is needed.


It’s a huge issue and again Biden and co. deserve to be blamed for this mess by not supplying Ukraine with all the weapons when it had the most motivated and professional army which had only few mobilized soldiers in its ranks. Absolutely worthless and shortsighted administration.
 


He's not a serious candidate and will be out of politics once the primaries get started since he won't be picking up much support because Trump will get a vast majority with Haley getting the rest.
 
He's not a serious candidate and will be out of politics once the primaries get started since he won't be picking up much support because Trump will get a vast majority with Haley getting the rest.
Yes, he’s not going places but such narratives are being normalized little by little and not being shot down immediately.
 
Now, i'm not sure democrats, or NATO as a whole for that matter, truly cares about Ukraine, but lets just presume that they do.

Was it not, in hindsight, profoundly reckless of them to back Gaetz personal vendetta? McCarthy you might have gotten something from, Mike Johnson is a hardcore ideologue, who will never give you anything, as has already been proven.

I think dems made a mistake here, and it will cost Ukraine a lot.
 
Now, i'm not sure democrats, or NATO as a whole for that matter, truly cares about Ukraine, but lets just presume that they do.

Was it not, in hindsight, profoundly reckless of them to back Gaetz personal vendetta? McCarthy you might have gotten something from, Mike Johnson is a hardcore ideologue, who will never give you anything, as has already been proven.

I think dems made a mistake here, and it will cost Ukraine a lot.
It is hard to tell with Republicans. But I said it at that time that I thought Democrats probably missed some opportunity to make some deals with McCarthy for keeping him there.
 
Now, i'm not sure democrats, or NATO as a whole for that matter, truly cares about Ukraine, but lets just presume that they do.

Was it not, in hindsight, profoundly reckless of them to back Gaetz personal vendetta? McCarthy you might have gotten something from, Mike Johnson is a hardcore ideologue, who will never give you anything, as has already been proven.

I think dems made a mistake here, and it will cost Ukraine a lot.
Yeah I think that turned out to be really dumb.
 
But of all the hundreds of tweets about this incident that happened almost a month ago you choose to post the one claiming it was done because of Nazism?
You're right, I've been rumbled, I'm anti Ukraine and we shouldn't support them because they're all Nazis :wenger:
 


The result of the west being incapable/not interested in matching production levels of Russia/Iran/NK.

Its a shame, cause at one point, Ukraine had destroyed enough enemy artillery to gain the advantage, but that's all gone now.