2022 US Elections

If the 2020 Election thread is any indicator I will dump about 2,500 posts, 10% of my will to live, and 15% of my soul into this thread.
 
Is it a given the Republicans take back the House and Senate?
 
Adisa said:
Is it a given the Republicans take back the House and Senate?
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The House has been done for a while. The only question will be to what extent they take it back since that will have a ripple effect going into 2024. The Senate is also in play but the general sentiment is that the Dems have the advantage to retain control since there are 20 Republicans up for re-election but only 14 Dems. That will obviously play a massive role in things like SCOTUS nominations during the next two years.

As far as Biden’s 2020 agenda is concerned, anything that doesn’t get passed in the next 8 months, wont have any chance of passing during the ensuing two years.
 
I'm not nearly as doom and gloom about the house. Redistricting did not go nearly as bad as was feared (thank you Marc Elias!). It really comes down to turnout, like it always does. I do think the R's will edge it out by a few seats, but it may be close.

2022 House Election Forecast Maps - 270toWin
 
Raoul said:
The House has been done for a while. The only question will be to what extent they take it back since that will have a ripple effect going into 2024. The Senate is also in play but the general sentiment is that the Dems have the advantage to retain control since there are 20 Republicans up for re-election but only 14 Dems. That will obviously play a massive role in things like SCOTUS nominations during the next two years.

As far as Biden’s 2020 agenda is concerned, anything that doesn’t get passed in the next 8 months, wont have any chance of passing during the ensuing two years.
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As far as I can see there are only 5 contested seats, and the Dems need to win at least 3 of them to keep the senate.

In Arizona, I think that Mark Kelly (incumbent) should be the favorite.
In Georgia, Warnock is gonna have a hard fight keeping his seat.
In Nevada, Masto should keep her seat considering that Nevada (like Arizona) is now more blue than red.
In Pennsylvania, the Republican incumbent is not trying to get reelected, and PA voted blue last time around, so a good chance for Dems to flip the seat.
In Wisconsin, incumbent Johnson should be favorite to keep his seat, though would be nice for Dems to flip it.

I do not think that other seats are really in play unless something major happens. Perfect scenario would be for Dems to win all these 5 seats, but I guess that is not happening. As long as they get 50, it is fine when it comes to possible SCOTUS appointments though, which is the most important part for Dems (considering that Biden will need to govern by executive orders anyway from the moment House gets flipped).
 
Revan said:
As far as I can see there are only 5 contested seats, and the Dems need to win at least 3 of them to keep the senate.

In Arizona, I think that Mark Kelly (incumbent) should be the favorite.
In Georgia, Warnock is gonna have a hard fight keeping his seat.
In Nevada, Masto should keep her seat considering that Nevada (like Arizona) is now more blue than red.
In Pennsylvania, the Republican incumbent is not trying to get reelected, and PA voted blue last time around, so a good chance for Dems to flip the seat.
In Wisconsin, incumbent Johnson should be favorite to keep his seat, though would be nice for Dems to flip it.

I do not think that other seats are really in play unless something major happens. Perfect scenario would be for Dems to win all these 5 seats, but I guess that is not happening. As long as they get 50, it is fine when it comes to possible SCOTUS appointments though, which is the most important part for Dems (considering that Biden will need to govern by executive orders anyway from the moment House gets flipped).
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PA - Toomey retiring
NC - Burr retiring
OH - Portman retiring
MO - Roy Blunt retiring (If Greitens wins the R nomination then he is basically tied with D challengers. If not, the R's will win comfortably)
IA - Grassley is very, very old and is only up by a few points
AZ - Kelly is slightly ahead and given AZ trending blue, I would give him the edge
GA - Walker slightly ahead of Warnock, but in the end it will be a turnout game, which may help Warnock if Abrams gets heavy turnout again against Kemp

FL - Little Marco Rubio wouldn't be a lock for reelection, but unfortunately the best the Dems can offer up is Val Demmings
WI - Johnson is trailing his opponent by 4, so this one is a legit Dem change
NH - Maggie Hassan is neck and neck with several potential R challengers

That said, if there's a "red wave" the likes of Herschel Walker and a few others could wind up tipping the scale towards the GOP.
 
I’m not sure America is going to survive if this Republican Party takes control of the house and senate.
 
Pexbo said:
I’m not sure America is going to survive if this Republican Party takes control of the house and senate.
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If they do, they will make a mess of it and probably help the Dems gain seats in 24. The public seem to always gravitate towards the idea of a balanced government, which for them means one divided among both parties.
 
Raoul said:
PA - Toomey retiring
NC - Burr retiring
OH - Portman retiring
MO - Roy Blunt retiring (If Greitens wins the R nomination then he is basically tied with D challengers. If not, the R's will win comfortably)
IA - Grassley is very, very old and is only up by a few points
AZ - Kelly is slightly ahead and given AZ trending blue, I would give him the edge
GA - Walker slightly ahead of Warnock, but in the end it will be a turnout game, which may help Warnock if Abrams gets heavy turnout again against Kemp

FL - Little Marco Rubio wouldn't be a lock for reelection, but unfortunately the best the Dems can offer up is Val Demmings
WI - Johnson is trailing his opponent by 4, so this one is a legit Dem change
NH - Maggie Hassan is neck and neck with several potential R challengers

That said, if there's a "red wave" the likes of Herschel Walker and a few others could wind up tipping the scale towards the GOP.
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I don't trust this. Dems always do well in polls in Florida, but in the end it shows to be a very comfortable state for Republicans. It happened in the past 2 presidential elections, as it did for the senate where the Dems were leading all polls, but in the end GOP won by a few points.

I don't think that there is much chance of GOP losing OH and MO nowadays, Grassley also will comfortably win IMO. I think PA, AZ, GA, WI and Nevada are the ones to watch, with NH and NC being a bit further.

Also, is it only my feelings, or in general, Republicans tend to do better on election day compared to the polls? In both 2018 and 2020 they won a couple of seats that they were losing in the polls, and the Democrat victory in the House was smaller than what the polls suggested.
 
Revan said:
I don't trust this. Dems always do well in polls in Florida, but in the end it shows to be a very comfortable state for Republicans. It happened in the past 2 presidential elections, as it did for the senate where the Dems were leading all polls, but in the end GOP won by a few points.

I don't think that there is much chance of GOP losing OH and MO nowadays, Grassley also will comfortably win IMO. I think PA, AZ, GA, WI and Nevada are the ones to watch, with NH and NC being a bit further.

Also, is it only my feelings, or in general, Republicans tend to do better on election day compared to the polls? In both 2018 and 2020 they won a couple of seats that they were losing in the polls, and the Democrat victory in the House was smaller than what the polls suggested.
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The Dems always have a chance in FL. They narrowly missed out on Governor and just had a US Senator until two years ago. They just keep putting up weak sauce candidates who don't have what it takes to win. If they did, they could take advantage of DeSantis' antics on COVID, Disney, and a number of other issues and win an election or two.
 
Raoul said:
PA - Toomey retiring
NC - Burr retiring
OH - Portman retiring
MO - Roy Blunt retiring (If Greitens wins the R nomination then he is basically tied with D challengers. If not, the R's will win comfortably)
IA - Grassley is very, very old and is only up by a few points
AZ - Kelly is slightly ahead and given AZ trending blue, I would give him the edge
GA - Walker slightly ahead of Warnock, but in the end it will be a turnout game, which may help Warnock if Abrams gets heavy turnout again against Kemp

FL - Little Marco Rubio wouldn't be a lock for reelection, but unfortunately the best the Dems can offer up is Val Demmings
WI - Johnson is trailing his opponent by 4, so this one is a legit Dem change
NH - Maggie Hassan is neck and neck with several potential R challengers

That said, if there's a "red wave" the likes of Herschel Walker and a few others could wind up tipping the scale towards the GOP.
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WI is going to be a turnout game as well. RoJo is a binary candidate, you either HATE him or LOVE him. Barnes is an electric speaker and would be an amazing Senator if he gets the nomination for the Dems.

This is a Gov election too and the same crowd that love Johnson think Evers is the devil. I think that the presence of both positions on the ballot is going to make this a high turnout election.
 
Walker going ahead of Warnock for now already makes me puke. I mean Georgia just got rid of 2 idiot and corrupt senators in Purdue and Loeffler, come on.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Walker going ahead of Warnock for now already makes me puke. I mean Georgia just got rid of 2 idiot and corrupt senators in Purdue and Loeffler, come on.
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I would not be too worried yet. If he somehow gets the nomination there is absolutely no way he agrees to a debate and I bet we get another iconic photo like we did with Ossoff/ Purdue that will be used o target swing voters. Also, I think Abrams v Kemp drives huge turnout, which should help Warnock. I'm not saying he is guaranteed to win, just that it's not doom and gloom yet.
 
sun_tzu said:
Accused of?

Strange wording as it brings in the whole innocent till proven guilty

Is there cross tabs on the survey as it would be interesting to see how that changed if it was proven they actually did it?
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That’s semantic nonsense. You really think people that were asked applied that nuance?
 
sun_tzu said:
Accused of?

Strange wording as it brings in the whole innocent till proven guilty

Is there cross tabs on the survey as it would be interesting to see how that changed if it was proven they actually did it?
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Good point. Not sure.

Something tells me that the numbers might not move that much.
 
calodo2003 said:
Good point. Not sure.

Something tells me that the numbers might not move that much.
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Yeah that's my gut feel but would like to see the data as otherwise as I say it's so easily dismissed as an argument by the innocent till proven guilty statement

Or leftist Woke pre judging cancel culture as I'm sure they would say
 
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