A people's Revolution

Commadus said:
The US wanted the MB in power lol - get real. They just couldn't stop it at the time. The Army has always been the one factor on the side of the US due to its close relationships over a prolonged period mainly due to US military Aid.

The hatred towards Israel is always used as a political move to distract the populace from the current leaders failings and to legitimise their "islamic credentials". Israel is secure in its borders - the threat is always overplayed. Has Israel lost any land in the last 50 years?

Egypt will eventually get a constitution and pro western government. This will lead to deep seated resentment from the Islamic parties who were elected with the notion that democracy and getting involved in the political process is not an avenue they will venture down. This will just create more tension - many benefit from such tension. The cycle will continue.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.
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The US didn't want the MB in power but once it got in there, it became rather pally with it.

From my experience, Egyptian leftists tend to hate the West's policies in their region as much as, if not more than the Islamists.
 
africanspur said:
From my experience, Egyptian leftists tend to hate the West's policies in their region as much as, if not more than the Islamists.
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Succinctly put.
 
africanspur said:
The US didn't want the MB in power but once it got in there, it became rather pally with it.

From my experience, Egyptian leftists tend to hate the West's policies in their region as much as, if not more than the Islamists.
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I don't have any doubt the Egyptian Army Generals asked for prior approval from the USA for their actions, similar to Saddam asked prior to invading Kuwait.
 
Commadus said:
I don't have any doubt the Egyptian Army Generals asked for prior approval from the USA for their actions, similar to Saddam asked prior to invading Kuwait.
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I'm not talking about what happened yesterday, I'm talking about what has happened since Mubarak was overthrown. There have been all kinds of high level meetings between MB members and Washington since the very beginning, people who know policy makers in Washington saying that high level members espouse the theory that its MB or no-one etc etc.

Yeah, Im pretty sure they didn't do it without at least talking to the US first. However, that doesn't take away from the facts on the ground. Millions on the street, the largest demonstrations in Egypt's history and probably one of the largest in history anywhere. All the non Islamists had abandoned Morsi a long time ago and by 31st June, even the Salafis were calling for early elections. Its nothing like Saddam in the slightest.
 
Commadus said:
The US wanted the MB in power lol - get real. They just couldn't stop it at the time. The Army has always been the one factor on the side of the US due to its close relationships over a prolonged period mainly due to US military Aid.

The hatred towards Israel is always used as a political move to distract the populace from the current leaders failings and to legitimise their "islamic credentials". Israel is secure in its borders - the threat is always overplayed. Has Israel lost any land in the last 50 years?

Egypt will eventually get a constitution and pro western government. This will lead to deep seated resentment from the Islamic parties who were elected with the notion that democracy and getting involved in the political process is not an avenue they will venture down. This will just create more tension - many benefit from such tension. The cycle will continue.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.
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Where did I say the US wanted the MB rule. What I referred to was Obama back- stabbing of Mubarak, which basically handed power to the brotherhood on a plate.

As for Israel's security, the moment you see Israel as a nation or a group of people who wish to lead normal lives rather than gain territory as if we were discussing board games here, is when you realise that threats to security are not necessarily loss of land. Life under a constant threat of rocket and mortar fire is pretty unpleasant.
 
I think probably more important than that, certainly in the context of this thread, is exactly how HR feels the US 'backstabbed' Mubarak, what they could have done differently to keep Mubarak in, how this would have gotten the millions of protesters to go home against a leader who had made the last 30 years of their lives hell and who was known for his brutality and why in many sections of the Western media (and I guess it seems in HR's mind as well), the Arabs have no agency of their own and all of their decisions and their outcomes must be seen through the prism of a US centric world rather than as homegrown, authentic events?

I'm sure we've had this discussion before so I'm interested to see what has changed.
 
africanspur said:
I'm not talking about what happened yesterday, I'm talking about what has happened since Mubarak was overthrown. There have been all kinds of high level meetings between MB members and Washington since the very beginning, people who know policy makers in Washington saying that high level members espouse the theory that its MB or no-one etc etc.

Yeah, Im pretty sure they didn't do it without at least talking to the US first. However, that doesn't take away from the facts on the ground. Millions on the street, the largest demonstrations in Egypt's history and probably one of the largest in history anywhere. All the non Islamists had abandoned Morsi a long time ago and by 31st June, even the Salafis were calling for early elections. Its nothing like Saddam in the slightest.
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The reference to Saddam was he did get prior approval before he invaded Kuwait - that;s it. Not comparing Iraq to what is happening to Egypt.
 
holyland red said:
Where did I say the US wanted the MB rule. What I referred to was Obama back- stabbing of Mubarak, which basically handed power to the brotherhood on a plate.

As for Israel's security, the moment you see Israel as a nation or a group of people who wish to lead normal lives rather than gain territory as if we were discussing board games here, is when you realise that threats to security are not necessarily loss of land. Life under a constant threat of rocket and mortar fire is pretty unpleasant.
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So Obama backstabbed a loyal ally in Mubarak. So anyone who trusts him / US should think twice?

Life under occupation is grim. Whats the death rate from mortors or rocket fire? How big is this threat - is it a graver threat than living under occupation?
 
Commadus said:
So Obama backstabbed a loyal ally in Mubarak. So anyone who trusts him / US should think twice?

Life under occupation is grim. Whats the death rate from mortors or rocket fire? How big is this threat - is it a graver threat than living under occupation?
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If the WB and GS situation undermines your ability to discuss other ME issues, such as threats to Israel's security from across the Egyptian border then we pretty much reached a dead end.

Going back to events in Cairo, and considering the standards of living across most of the Arab world, your reasoning means that Arabs are actually safer under Israeli rule than under their own.
 
Commadus said:
So Obama backstabbed a loyal ally in Mubarak. So anyone who trusts him / US should think twice?

Life under occupation is grim. Whats the death rate from mortors or rocket fire? How big is this threat - is it a graver threat than living under occupation?
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Israel's current defensive strategy has the primary aim of reducing the number of deaths due to terrorist acts such as rocket fire. So, it's not possible to do an accurate comparison.

Anyway, back on topic, is it possible (and even probable) for these Egyptian coups to happen every so often or will this be the last?
 
Traub said:
Israel's current defensive strategy has the primary aim of reducing the number of deaths due to terrorist acts such as rocket fire. So, it's not possible to do an accurate comparison.

Anyway, back on topic, is it possible (and even probable) for these Egyptian coups to happen every so often or will this be the last?
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I imagine we're reaching an early Turkish style scenario where we might see coups every once in a while, if the people rise up like they did a few days ago. I doubt there will be any without such cover and I doubt the army wants clear power again. They've been burnt already in their transition period. But I don't think the army will come under full civilian control for a while. Which isn't too much of a surprise after 60 years of military dictatorship.

However, I think what the last 2 and a half years have shown in the region is that no-one has the faintest idea what is going on or what will happen. Not us. Not the people on the ground. And certainly not the self proclaimed 'ME/Arab/Islamic experts we get on our tvs giving us their false analysis of the situation.

So probably I'm completely wrong.

All we can really do is sit back and watch.
 
holyland red said:
If the WB and GS situation undermines your ability to discuss other ME issues, such as threats to Israel's security from across the Egyptian border then we pretty much reached a dead end.

Going back to events in Cairo, and considering the standards of living across most of the Arab world, your reasoning means that Arabs are actually safer under Israeli rule than under their own.
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So again you want to control the narrative. I brought up that Israel was happy Morsi was out - you disagreed reasoning Israel was under threat and life was grim and I simply added as it is in the WB - so now you are saying I cannot discuss ME issues.

It does not undermine my ability as shows how you simply cannot suggest there is suffering on both sides.

As to your last point - how did you come to that conclusion.
 
Traub said:
Israel's current defensive strategy has the primary aim of reducing the number of deaths due to terrorist acts such as rocket fire. So, it's not possible to do an accurate comparison.

Anyway, back on topic, is it possible (and even probable) for these Egyptian coups to happen every so often or will this be the last?
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What is their defensive strategy? What is its aim / objective?

Depends on who is in power and where there support base is from.
 
Commadus said:
So again you want to control the narrative. I brought up that Israel was happy Morsi was out - you disagreed reasoning Israel was under threat and life was grim and I simply added as it is in the WB - so now you are saying I cannot discuss ME issues.

It does not undermine my ability as shows how you simply cannot suggest there is suffering on both sides.

As to your last point - how did you come to that conclusion.
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Not true. I didn't understand what the Palestinian suffering had to do with immediate threats to Israel's security giving the dwindling Egyptian control of the Sinai peninsula.

It would belong in another thread but objective data point at the fact Palestinians do a lot better than Arabs/Muslims in many countries. There's evidence here: http://rslissak.com/content/humanitarian-show-ben-dror-yemini
My point was that quoting death toll in Israel to dismiss the toll of having to live under constant rocket/mortar threat is not much different than dismissing Palestinian suffering under foreign rule simply because it doesn't kill (statistically...).
 
Commadus said:
What is their defensive strategy? What is its aim / objective?

Depends on who is in power and where there support base is from.
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Their defensive strategy is the same as the aim - to protect Israelis.
 
holyland red said:
Not true. I didn't understand what the Palestinian suffering had to do with immediate threats to Israel's security giving the dwindling Egyptian control of the Sinai peninsula.

It would belong in another thread but objective data point at the fact Palestinians do a lot better than Arabs/Muslims in many countries. There's evidence here: http://rslissak.com/content/humanitarian-show-ben-dror-yemini
My point was that quoting death toll in Israel to dismiss the toll of having to live under constant rocket/mortar threat is not much different than dismissing Palestinian suffering under foreign rule simply because it doesn't kill (statistically...).
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That article really is based on a false premise. The low infant mortality rates for Palestinians is due to the efforts of UNRWA and not the Israeli authorities. The fact that you then take this is an objective example to state Palestinians do better under Israeli rule than Arabs elsewhere is wrong.

http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/4/10-082743/en/index.html

As to your last point. Using the death toll as a measure of determining suffering is one metric.

Back to Egypt.

Elbabaradei sworn in as I posted on Thursday - quelle surprise.
 
If I remember correctly El Baradei was US's choice to become Prime Minister prior to elections.
 
Commadus said:
That article really is based on a false premise. The low infant mortality rates for Palestinians is due to the efforts of UNRWA and not the Israeli authorities. The fact that you then take this is an objective example to state Palestinians do better under Israeli rule than Arabs elsewhere is wrong.

http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/4/10-082743/en/index.html

As to your last point. Using the death toll as a measure of determining suffering is one metric.

Back to Egypt.

Elbabaradei sworn in as I posted on Thursday - quelle surprise.
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Your quoted data confirm my point that the Israeli rule in the dsputed territories doesn't kill, and using your logic that means that the resident Arabs do not live under any threat.

Back to Egypt, Obama got his man in office there.
 
As far as I understand, Al Nour party (the Salafist party that won the 2nd largest amount of votes in the now dissolved parliament of 2011 and the major Islamist presence behind this roadmap) vetoed the appointment, calling for an independent, technocrat, preferably economist PM.

Which I think is probably the most reasonable thing this party has ever said and one of the most reasonable opinions out there in Egypt at the moment. I'm sure El-Baradei has the skills for the job and he's a good social democrat but he is a divisive choice in al already divisive time, having called for change since 2010 (and so hated by the Conservative old elites) and since 2011, hated by the Islamists.

It should be an economist of some sort imo.

So I don't think there's a PM yet.
 
Yep, thought I'd gone crazy there or something.

Al Nour said they'd leave the roadmap if El-Baradei became PM.

Also, Mcain is pushing pretty hard to end US military aid to Egypt. Considering all 1.3 billion of that has to go straight back to buying US weapons, their politicians really need to stop pretending this agreement doesn't suit both sides.
 
holyland red said:
A US puppet, no doubt about that. Arab democracy.

Good luck, Egypt.
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You've got to wonder with the past record of meddling in other countries in the past.

On Arab democracy, I reckon people are too quick to pass judgement of equating stable democracies which have been established for centuries with these new upstarts. All this will take time, and a lot of heartache. There's even a big question mark if certain cultures are even cut out for the democracy as we understand.

It can't be nice for anyone living in the country/region in the midst of all this upheaval.
 
Sultan said:
You've got to wonder with the past record of meddling in other countries in the past.

On Arab democracy, I reckon people are too quick to pass judgement of equating stable democracies which have been established for centuries with these new upstarts. All this will take time, and a lot of heartache. There's even a big question mark if certain cultures are even cut out for the democracy as we understand.
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I wonder the kinds of things that would have been said today about the French, British, American etc revolutions (and civil war in the American case) that have now led to flourishing democracies, after dozens or even more years of strife and eventually democratic & economic growth.
 
holyland red said:
Your quoted data confirm my point that the Israeli rule in the dsputed territories doesn't kill, and using your logic that means that the resident Arabs do not live under any threat.

Back to Egypt, Obama got his man in office there.
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I debunked your point. I again said death toll is one measure. Because settlement building is another threat, checkpoints etc as a metric of living under thereat.

Also your point in bold - seriously? You usually post rationally and I enjoy reading your perspective.

Before this thread gets derailed.

So yeah back to Egypt.
 
El Baradei - another lawyer in charge. Why the hell are so many leaders lawyers. Sorry but I see them as the worst people in charge. In charge should be an economist or someone who understands how economies work not how laws are written.
 
Commadus said:
I debunked your point. I again said death toll is one measure. Because settlement building is another threat, checkpoints etc as a metric of living under thereat.

Also your point in bold - seriously? You usually post rationally and I enjoy reading your perspective.

Before this thread gets derailed.

So yeah back to Egypt.
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I don't think you did. nevertheless, this little exchange of ours started when you dismissed the threat to Israel from rocket/mortar fire. Do you have any idea what life is for a million Israelis under the threat of rocket fire? I don't mean just Cast Lead and the likes, but the constant threat over more than a decade? Do you know that there were rockets fired last week? and the week before? You don't, because nobody cares so it doesn't make the news. The number of casualties is low, but I still wish you and in fact the Palestinians growing your kids without training them to seek shelter within 10 seconds of hearing a siren. For thousands of Israeli kids that's the only reality they know.

When I address the situation in Egypt in terms of stability in the Sinai peninsula this issue is very much on mind. Regardless of the hardship in the territories, a deterioration of the security situation in Sinai would affect many Israelis directly. It could also escalate and affect millions of others if Israel is left with no choice but to sort the Sinai situation itself, but we can still hope for the best at this stage.
 
holyland red said:
I don't think you did. nevertheless, this little exchange of ours started when you dismissed the threat to Israel from rocket/mortar fire. Do you have any idea what life is for a million Israelis under the threat of rocket fire? I don't mean just Cast Lead and the likes, but the constant threat over more than a decade? Do you know that there were rockets fired last week? and the week before? You don't, because nobody cares so it doesn't make the news. The number of casualties is low, but I still wish you and in fact the Palestinians growing your kids without training them to seek shelter within 10 seconds of hearing a siren. For thousands of Israeli kids that's the only reality they know.

When I address the situation in Egypt in terms of stability in the Sinai peninsula this issue is very much on mind. Regardless of the hardship in the territories, a deterioration of the security situation in Sinai would affect many Israelis directly. It could also escalate and affect millions of others if Israel is left with no choice but to sort the Sinai situation itself, but we can still hope for the best at this stage.
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I am not sure what you are trying to say here. Palestinians growing my kids?
 
holyland red said:
A US puppet, no doubt about that. Arab democracy.

Good luck, Egypt.
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Them craaaaaaaaaaazy arabs. At least they give each side a vote, I'll admit it's a lot less decisive that giving one side an army and a fleet of bulldozers. But that's the problem with actual democracy, you have to give your opponents a voice.

And regardless of geography, democray often takes a while to bed. In the Middle East the unstable governments are not helped by the US and Israel's interests in the region and by the failure of governments like ours to say anything. So Arab democracy is floundering for more reasons that it being arab democracy.
 
moses said:
Them craaaaaaaaaaazy arabs. At least they give each side a vote, I'll admit it's a lot less decisive that giving one side an army and a fleet of bulldozers. But that's the problem with actual democracy, you have to give your opponents a voice.

And regardless of geography, democray often takes a while to bed. In the Middle East the unstable governments are not helped by the US and Israel's interests in the region. So Arab democracy is floundering for more reasons that it being arab democracy.
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Hehe...missed your input. Give each side a vote...Arabs...Where?

Takes a while to bed...I don't know when it's finally going to work for them, but the Arabs would be far better off without patronizing shit like this. The only place in the ME Arabs enjoy democracy is Israel.
 
holyland red said:
Hehe...missed your input. Give each side a vote...Arabs...Where?

Takes a while to bed...I don't know when it's finally going to work for them, but the Arabs would be far better off without patronizing shit like this. The only place in the ME Arabs enjoy democracy is Israel.
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Patronising shit like what? You were the one having a go at 'arab' democracy. In Israel and and in Ireland we have had serious human rights issues, which are kind of in the face of democracy as it is bandied about these days. Both our countries would have had much bigger issues of stability in slightly different circumstances. Had we in Ireland not inherited a British system it would have been a much harder transition, and even at that we had a civil war that cost us many able men and women that the new state could have done with. An in the case of Israel it was the Iron Wall and and not the ballot paper that made the government 'stable'. You hold Israel up as a model democracy, but that's a highly debated point, it's arguably the closest thing we have to appartheid if you take the opposing view. Me pointing out the geopolitical obstacles to democracy is hardly patronising. You sneering at 'arab' democracy is.
 
moses said:
Patronising shit like what? You were the one having a go at 'arab' democracy. In Israel and and in Ireland we have had serious human rights issues, which are kind of in the face of democracy as it is bandied about these days. Both our countries would have had much bigger issues of stability in slightly different circumstances. Had we in Ireland not inherited a British system it would have been a much harder transition, and even at that we had a civil war that cost us many able men and women that the new state could have done with. An in the case of Israel it was the Iron Wall and and not the ballot paper that made the government 'stable'. You hold Israel up as a model democracy, but that's a highly debated point, it's arguably the closest thing we have to appartheid if you take the opposing view. Me pointing out the geopolitical obstacles to democracy is hardly patronising. You sneering at 'arab' democracy is.
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Surprisingly enough the Israeli democracy is debated only by the people who argue that the illfortune of Arabs stems from US and Western influence in the region. That is exactly where the patronising bit enters the equation. As long as you blame the Yanks and the Zionists for lack of democracy in the Arab world you clear the Arabs themselves of any responsibility for lack of women equality, religious intolerance etc. Why would you do that? You are a the typical "aprtheid Israel" crap merchant, so what would you call Sunni/Shiia/Koptic massacres across the border? What about the "cultural" discrimination against women? Is that also the US fault? Your understanding towards a transition period during which you would expect Arabs to behave like savages speaks volumes about the high regard you hold them to. This is not a time to "understand" throwing people from rooftops or moronically blaming Israel again.

What the Egyptians need right now is not people deflecting blame towards the US and Zionists. They have had that for years and still have millions repeating the mantra for them today. It's the brave Egyptians that understand that what necessary is a long stare at the fecking mirror that need encouraging. Regardless of what you really think about them, your hate-filled arguments do very little good service to their efforts.
 
Surely anyone with any semblance of historical knowledge cannot deny much of the modern Arab world, and North African borders, and Gulf state borders were drawn up mostly in London, and Paris? The British occupied Iran during World War - USA then deposed of a democratically elected government in Iran in the 1950's, then tried to control Iran from the 1970s - armed Saddam/Iraq against Iranians in the 1980s costing over a Million lives. Britain and France attacked Egypt in 1950's, the United States armed the Mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s against the Russians, and are now fighting the very same people. They have also been supporting, and keeping in power dictators overs many decades. This is very brief history of what I call meddling.

I'm just touching briefly the extent of Western involvement to those denying US/West not having played a part in destabilising the region. It's only fair to add Arabs, and Muslims have not been a pillar righteousness.
 
Sultan said:
Surely anyone with any semblance of historical knowledge cannot deny much of the modern Arab world, and North African borders, and Gulf state borders were drawn up mostly in London, and Paris? The British occupied Iran during World War - USA then deposed of a democratically elected government in Iran in the 1950's, then tried to control Iran from the 1970s - armed Saddam/Iraq against Iranians in the 1980s costing over a Million lives. Britain and France attacked Egypt in 1950's, the United States armed the Mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s against the Russians, and are now fighting the very same people. They have also been supporting, and keeping in power dictators overs many decades. This is very brief history of what I call meddling.

I'm just touching briefly the extent of Western involvement to those denying US/West not having played a part in destabilising the region. It's only fair to add Arabs, and Muslims have not been a pillar righteousness.
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Very succinctly put.

Those of you who haven't already done so, I recommend you read Chomsky's very scrupulous piece on 'Stability':

http://www.chomsky.info/books/fateful02.htm
 
holyland red said:
Surprisingly enough the Israeli democracy is debated only by the people who argue that the illfortune of Arabs stems from US and Western influence in the region. That is exactly where the patronising bit enters the equation. As long as you blame the Yanks and the Zionists for lack of democracy in the Arab world you clear the Arabs themselves of any responsibility for lack of women equality, religious intolerance etc. Why would you do that? You are a the typical "aprtheid Israel" crap merchant, so what would you call Sunni/Shiia/Koptic massacres across the border? What about the "cultural" discrimination against women? Is that also the US fault? Your understanding towards a transition period during which you would expect Arabs to behave like savages speaks volumes about the high regard you hold them to. This is not a time to "understand" throwing people from rooftops or moronically blaming Israel again.

What the Egyptians need right now is not people deflecting blame towards the US and Zionists. They have had that for years and still have millions repeating the mantra for them today. It's the brave Egyptians that understand that what necessary is a long stare at the fecking mirror that need encouraging. Regardless of what you really think about them, your hate-filled arguments do very little good service to their efforts.
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Hate filled arguments? I was putting your arrogant dismissal of 'arab democracy' in context. Using both our countries as an example. Most of my post was about Ireland anyway. Where one border, less than 100 miles long caused untold damage. If you think me asking for you to extrapolate that onto the ME's cartographical disaster is hate filled then I'll need it explained to me.

I was not blaming anybody, but saying that democracy rarely hits the ground running; not just 'arab democracy. There were factors that hindered democracy in both of our countries, neither of which are arab. That was the only point I was making. If you think geopolitics can be dismissed while race can be blamed then we will have to just leave it there.

As for me expecting arabs to behave like savages, what are you on about? I have no idea where you pulled that from what I posted. I cited our own civil war as an example of what happens when democracy is nascent. And while throwing people off rooftops is unacceptable from any perspective, I think one should always try to understand, and that applies universally.

As for the cultural discrimation against women, it is shocking, and no, not the fault of the US. (What was the point in asking that? You think anyone with an issue with the US in the ME is a one dimensional crackpot.) But what happens in other countries does not mitigate or dilute what is happening in Israel. And vice versa.

I am not blaming the Americans or the Zionists, just saying that while there will always be external factor on a new democracy, these are the ones prevalent now.
 
Witnesses: Egypt's Republican Guard fired on demonstrators outside its headquarters Monday. 10 dead, 100 wounded​



Why are MB supporters sacrificing their lives? They've been identified as Islamists - the media is not on their side, and the Army has no issues with making an example of them. They had their chance in power and messed up royally(obviously not all their fault)...but the game is up.

Shouldn't they go away and lick their wounds and see what democratic options they have open to them? After all they still retain their organization structure, and supposedly the support of the rural masses.

What they are engaging in currently does no one in any good - especially them.
 
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